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Degenerate Gambler Weekly: Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread

October 14, 2011

Darryl Gamble

By Brian Spencer

Hey, kids, look! Empty the Bench is back, and this time they’re gambling away their paychecks to degenerate low lifes and stinky Hacidics! Yay!

Degenerate Gambler Weekly is a new weekly ETB column–no, seriously, we’re going to follow through on this one… honest–in which we, your lovable NFL Sunday Degenerates, share the seven NFL picks we’ve made against the spread for our weekly pool at the local watering hole. Don’t worry, Mom, it’s just for points, not money: 100 points entrance fee and 11 points a week.

Why should you bother following and trusting our picks? Because most of the time we know our shit, even if we don’t always get into (not)witty nitty-gritty stat nerdom in our explanations of why these are our picks. Just trust us: we have a proven track record, which from here on out we’ll keep track of here. The last few weeks have been particularly good: 16-5 against the spread. Of course, that means these will all be wrong.

Okay, you get it. Welcome, my degenerate brethren, and may your wallets prosper with points.

Best Bet

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs: In a week without many spreads screaming “Bet on me!”, this one looks like the most likely gimme. The road team has won the past four matchups between these NFC South rivals: in fact, the past two games in Tampa have a combined score of 69-13 in the Saints’ favor. It’s a new year with different players, but we don’t have any reservations about the Saints’ ability to go into Tampa and stomp the Bucs… and stomp them they really should.

Though both defenses have been porous in allowing 25/per through five games, the Saints offense is averaging 14 points more than the Bucs mostly because, well, they employ a top-threeish QB named Drew Brees and a cadre of playmakers, while the Bucs have a good, solid young QB in Josh Freeman and a dearth of playmakers. This week that dearth gets deeper with leading rusher LeGarrette Blount joining DT Gerald McCoy on the inactive list.

The Bus are not as bad as the 48-3 thrashing they suffered last week in San Francisco, but not as good as their 3-2 record, which was padded with (narrow) wins over Donovan McNabb’s Minnesota Vikings and Curtis Painter’s Indianapolis Colts. The Saints are the Saints, and after trading scores with the Bucs early will pull away in the second half and win this one by double digits. PICK: Saints Cover

Strong Bets

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Washington Redskins: The ‘Skins are at the top of the NFC East standings, while the Eagles are buried at the bottom heading into their first matchup of the season: that’s football for you. Hey, we don’t like the Eagles anymore than you do, but despite their improvements across the board we’re not sold on the Redskins either.

Despite the festering warts (on Vick’s… sorry, couldn’t help it) that have marred the Iggles first quarter of the season–poor quarterback play, poor offensive line play, poor rushing defense, turnovers–this team still has more raw talent than the Redskins and, frankly, at 1-4 they need this game more than the Redskins do. Yes, the Redskins are 3-1, their defense is ranked third overall in the NFL in points allowed, they sport an eighth-ranked rushing attack, and they’re at home and rested coming off a bye. They’re also the Redskins.
PICK: Eagles Cover

Ndamukong Suh

Detroit Lions (-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Am I the only one who’s tired of hearing about Alex Smith as “game manager”? We’re now into the sixth fucking year of it for the former first-overall pick, who in the course of his sub-mediocre career has never thrown for more than 18 TD passes, never hit 3,000 yards passing, or finished with a QB Rating north of 82 points. Seriously, 49ers, enough already.

It’s nice that he’s off to a good start (104.1 QB Rating, 66% completion percentage, 7 TDs, 1 INT) and hasn’t yet earned his annual benching, but I just don’t buy it and, hence, don’t buy this San Francisco 49ers offense either, which is somehow averaging 28.4/per (7th in NFL). They’re due to come back down to earth before getting back to playing pattycake with the rest of the NFC West (the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals are a combined 3-11).

Raucous Ford Field seems like a likely place for it to happen. In the midst of a three-game homestand that began with a rowdy 24-13 win over the Chicago Bears on MNF, the undefeated Detroit Lions are playing as confidently as any team in the league. Their plan and personnel are clicking on both sides of the ball–and both sides have been tested by quality opponents. Only four teams are averaging more than their 31.8/per, and while the 49ers’ hard-nosed defense is definitely legit and rank second in the league in points allowed with 15.4/per, the Lions DEF is just three spots behind with 17.8.

Kudos to first-year HC Jim Harbaugh on the early returns, for coaching in and benefitting from the NFL’s worst division, and, of course, for massaging Alex Smith into an even duller and less-dynamic game manager than he was. Exciting. Wooooooo. Woooo!
PICK: Lions Cover

Oakland Raiders (-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns: There might be nothing more exciting in the NFL than the Raiders’ kicking game. Sebastian Janikowski, who matched the NFL record for longest field goal in Week 1, and Shane Lechler, whose weekly punting exhibitions border on erotica, on the same team? Are you fucking kidding me? It’s not fair.

The Raiders return to Oakland for their first home game since Al Davis’ passing, so expect the atmosphere to be even more jacked up than usual. The 2-2 Browns are coming off a bye, but will be missing top CB Joe Haden and are trotting out a rush defense allowing nearly 125 yards on the ground per (though only 1 TD overall). That’s a problem Darren McFadden, the league’s leading rusher, is happy they have–he’ll exploit it, and the Raiders will roll.
PICK: Oakland Covers

Just Trust Us

New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Say it with me: the Dallas Cowboys are not a great team, at least right now. I’m not interested in talking about the reasons why, or about Tony Romo, or the return of Miles Austin, or the underrated pass rush because, hell, you’re as tired of hearing about this perenially underachieving franchise as I am.

The Patriots, on the other hand, are a very good team in spite of their cringeworthy defense, though to be fair part of the reason they’re giving up a league-worst 433 passing yards/per (yikes) is Tom Brady and his league-best 366 yards/per. The ‘Boys will hang some points on the Pats, but we have little to no faith in their ability to keep up for four quarters and not shoot themselves in both feet. PICK: Patriots Cover

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts: I have trouble trusting the Bengals, but my other half on ETB has been a stalwart supporter the past few weeks. Loves their defense, cites the addition of difference-making rookie WR AJ Green (24 catches, 402 yards, 3 TDs in first five games), and this week points out something even I can’t dispute: they’re playing Curtis Painter’s Colts at home. PICK: Bengals Cover

New York Jets (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins: The winless Dolphins, who’ll debut the first episode of their new Sunday afternoon sitcom called Matt Moore, Starting Quarterback, have beaten the Jets three of the past four times they’ve met, including two consecutive wins in New York. The Jets have lost three consecutive games, haven’t been able to run the ball with disappointing Shonn Greene behind a meh offensive line (76.2/per, second worst in NFL), can’t rush the passer, and are starting to point fingers at each other. Just a hunch, but I see something like Jets 23, Dolphins 6. PICK: Jets Cover

Darryl Gamble and Ndamukong Suh Photo Credits: Icon SMI

1 CommentPosted by Brian Spencer on Oct. 14, 2011 at 9:04pm in ETB Articles, NFL

Great Fantasy Expectations of Tim Hightower

September 7, 2011

Tim Hightower

By Brian Spencer

Foreskins head coach Mike Shanahan has a long, well-documented history of turning most any running back he touches into a 1,000-yard rusher. In his first season with the ‘Skins, though, even he couldn’t polish the turds that were Clinton Portis, Ryan Torain, and Keiland Williams into anything remotely resembling a respectable rushing attack: only the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals averaged less than the team’s 91.3 rushing yards/per last season.

Somewhat ironic, then, that Shanahan turns to Tim Hightower, who helped “lead the charge” for the Cards’ league-worst rushing attack last season, as the guy to get things back on track. A fourth-year back out of Richmond, Hightower was last seen stumbling his way to 736 yards rushing and fumbling the ball away four times in 15 timeshare appearances with Beanie Wells. Save for an anamolous burst in Week 14 against the ghastly Denver Broncos (18 carries, 148 yards, 2 TDs), his play was as uninspired as the last three seasons of NBC’s The Office (okay, that’s not fair–he wasn’t that bad).

The limp two-headed penis of Wells and Hightower was thankfully circumcised in the offseason, however, and both have been rewarded for their sub-acceptable efforts with full-time starting gigs… and it wouldn’t be shocking if both flourished with 1,000-yard seasons. Hightower, perhaps more than any starting back, may benefit most from a “right place, right time” situation in Washington, whose rushing philosophy is well-suited to Hightower’s not inconsiderable talents as a cut-and-go runner. He certainly looked the part of stud in limited preseason action, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring twice, which was enough to titillate fantasy nation and muscle his way into legitimate RB3 and WR/RB flex territory.

Are we going overboard here, though, in expecting much more than what we’ve already seen in three middling campaigns in Arizona, or will a change of scenery–and scheme–truly do the trick?

Hightower’s career has been solidly mediocre so far. He’s topped 100 yards rushing just four times in 47 games, sports a combined 3.9 YPC, and has lost 8 fumbles in the past two seasons. It’s not like he’s joining a high-octane offense in Washington with complimentary parts surrounding him, either. Sexy Rexy Grossman (or John Beck, for that matter) and his WR cast of Ughs and I Can’t Looks strike fear into nobody but the Redskins marketing department, so Hightower will likely see stacked boxes early and often.

If the fumbles continue, he’ll quickly find his way into Shanahan’s doghouse and, likely, back onto fantasy waivers before too long. Don’t go running to casino.org/canada to bet on his production just yet, but I’m tentatively bullish on his chances to at least do some damage over the ‘Skins first seven games, a stretch which includes matchups against a number of questionable rush defenses (Carolina, Buffalo, New York Giants, St. Louis… Arizona). If he does post big numbers, consider selling high after the Buffalo game in Week 8, after which the schedule gets considerably tougher, at least on preseason paper.

As the defending champ in both of my fantasy leagues (ahem), I’m heading into one season with Hightower penciled into my W/R flex slot–and, on the same team, Wells in my RB2 slot. I didn’t plan it that way, but am now one owner who’s hoping the circumcision was a success.

Tim Hightower Photo Credit: Icon SMI

1 CommentPosted by Brian Spencer on Sep. 7, 2011 at 10:10pm in NFL, NFL Fantasy News

Texas Rangers Bolster Bullpen with Stellar Koji Uehara and Mike Adams

August 2, 2011

Mike Adams Traded to Texas Rangers

Mike Adams photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell
The Orioles give Koji Uehara to the Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter; The Padres give up Mike Adams to the Rangers for Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin.

Let’s just get this out of the way first: this really sucks for everybody who owns shares in Mike Adams this season and beyond. I feel for you, I’ve been holding onto Adams in my keeper league for months assuming he would be the closer today. Not only does he get traded instead of Heath Bell and get shafted for the closer’s job in San Diego, Adams also goes from a pitcher’s paradise and a manager who ran a crisp bullpen to a hitter’s haven and a manager who struggles to keep his sock drawer in order. It makes no sense to me from the Friars’ perspective either: Adams is better than Bell, he’s younger than Bell and he’s under team control for a year longer than Bell. Boo-urns.

Let’s also say this: kudos to the Texas Rangers for landing two absolutely dominant and underrated relievers. This is how you shore up a bullpen at the trade deadline. On a per-inning basis, Uehara and Adams are now the Rangers best two pitchers. Hell, they might be the best one-two punch this side of Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Paired with 2010 AL ROY Neftali Feliz they should allow Texas to go into absolute lockdown mode after the 6th inning. That’s a scary thought paired with this team’s elite offense and decent starting pitching.

If I was gambling on either Adams or Uehara against Neftali I’d take either of the former to be closing out games by the end of the month. I don’t know what’s up with him, but with a 4.66 BB/9, 6.28 K/9 (only 6 Ks versus righties all year!) and 4.73 xFIP on the season Neftali is not closer material right now. The problem is, Texas got Adams and Uehara, and I have no idea which one will take over for Feliz if he continues to falter as I expect. In his second season in the MLB Koji Uehara has has posted an otherworldly set of numbers: 1.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 1.50 BB/9. Damn. Still, he’s been a bit lucky with a .192 BABIP and 97.6% LOB this year and his track record isn’t lengthy with just 99 career appearances. In 271 appearances Mike Adams boasts a 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.29 K/9 – and over the last three years he’s been even better. With both under Rangers’ control for 2012, it’s that experience gap in favor of Adams and and old-school manager in Ron Washington that leads me to think Adams should have the inside track for the job if/when Felix falters.

There’s also one interesting piece on the Baltimore side of the equation. Chris Davis has made a name for himself as a prototypical quad-A player, and I don’t have anything to dispel that notion baseball fan, but he makes headlines once again. As per his usual, Davis has crushed minor league pitching this season to the tune of 24 HRs with a .405 OBP and .824 SLG (!). We’ve seen this picture before, though. Stellar in the minors, strikeout machine in the majors. Maybe the change of scenery helps, maybe it doesn’t. He’s not moving into a better lineup or park, and Texas doesn’t exactly discourage offense. A speculative play on Davis isn’t crazy given his prodigious power and gaudy minor-league totals and the fact that he should get all the playing time he can handle, I made the move in one deep league, but there’s no reason to have much faith in a career turnaround at this point.

1 CommentPosted by Andrew Thell on Aug. 2, 2011 at 2:16am in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

Colby Rasmus Traded to Toronto Blue Jays; Edwin Jackson to St. Louis Cardinals

August 2, 2011

Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays

Colby Rasmus photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

The White Sox trade Mark Teahen and Edwin Jackson to Toronto for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart; the Blue Jays send Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Marc Rzepczynski to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters.

I’m a Rasmus fan, I think that kid has all the tools to be an impact player and All-Star calibre contributor on both offense and defense as he enters his prime the next few seasons. After a blistering start to April in which it looked like the 24-year-old center fielder was poised to cash in on all his promise, Rasmus’ OPS has gone dramatically south in each successive month, falling to an unsightly .684 in June and abysmal .544 mark in July. You hate to see him leave a lineup with protection built in like Pujols, Holliday and Berkman, but with the youngster privately and publicly clashing with Tony La Russa over the last two seasons there’s no doubt in my mind a change of scenery was needed. The kid goes into a better hitters park, a more offensive-oriented division, joins a hitting coach that has seriously tapped into the power of his students and should be in line for everyday playing time from here on out. I think this is a big win, and could be the spark Rasmus needed to rouse him from the mid-season doldrums he’s been caught up in.

On the other side, the Cards pick up the talented-but-perpetually-frustrating Edwin Jackson. The stuff is there, and Jackson has shown plenty of “flahses” to inspire confidence in his abilities, but I think we’ve gotten to a point where he can safely be labeled a head case with bad control. I never like relying on that kind of arm. Still, Jackson moves to a decent pitcher’s park and will now study under the immortal Dave Duncan, who could probably still turn Carlos Silva into a decent 4th starter. There’s reason for optimism here, but I’m done relying on Jackson. He’s the kind of guy who will consistently tease you and post peripherals that grab your attention only to break your heart every Friday night.

The mover is potentially bad news for Rajai Davis, Eric Thames, and Travis Snider – all of whom have fantasy relevance and all of whom figure to get squeezed out of playing time in the near future. My money is on Thames being sent back down (he’s younger), Rajai being used as a defensive and base-running replacement (he’s been successful as such) and Snider being given a long look in left as long as he can continue to hit. There were also a number of relief pitchers and unexciting prospects involved in the deal. I don’t really feel like talking about them, but I do think Marc Rzepczynski is a decent young lefty to keep an eye on in Holds leagues – he qualifies at SP in Yahoo! leagues, which is always nice. Deep leaguers might also want to add Jon Jay to the Watch List, but I wouldn’t expect much in the way of roto value; he doesn’t really have much category juice.

No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Aug. 2, 2011 at 1:54am in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

The Cleveland Indians Nab Ubaldo Jimenez

August 2, 2011

Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians

Ubaldo Jimenez photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

The Rockies send Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians for prospects Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride.

The Indians flipped a couple of solid pitching prospects for the name-brand Ubaldo, but the move really doesn’t move the needle much for me. I know Jimenez was the odds-on favorite for the NL Cy Young at this point last year, but a quick look at his peripherals even then showed he was playing over his head. Since then we’ve seen him collapse in the second half of 2010 and then perform like a thoroughly mediocre starter in 2011. It’s looking more and more like that first half of 2010 was the outlier in his career, and with Ubaldo losing a few ticks of velocity this season I’m not hopeful for a dramatic turnaround.

Most people point to his departure from Coors Field as a reason for optimism, and it is, Coors field is still brutal, but that is largely mitigated by going to the AL in my book. On top of that the Indians field a less capable defense behind Jiminez and their offense isn’t any better than Colorado’s. I think his value pretty much stays the same.

I feel like the Indians paid for the name and not the numbers here, giving up two very solid pitching prospects in the Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. White is a solid groundball pitcher who could plug a rotation spot, while Pomeranz may take some more seasoning but has flashed front-of-the-rotation talent in the minors. They were the consensus top lefty and righty, respectively, in the Indians system. Both figure to take a hit going forward pitching in that thin air of Colorado.

No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Aug. 2, 2011 at 1:45am in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

Bedard Brings his Curve Back to the AL East

August 2, 2011

Erik Bedard to Red Sox

Erik Bedard photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

Bedard and Josh Fields traded to the Boston Red Sox for Trayvon Robinson and Chih-Hsien Chiang as part of a three team deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Consider me conflicted on this one. I actually love Bedard’s talent, and I’m glad to see him finally put it together and stay reasonably healthy after so many years of injury woes. I know the guy is a noted curmudgeon, but so am I. We have a kinship. On top of that, Bedard has one of my favorite curveball-changeup combos of the last decade. The guy can make people look downright foolish when he’s on and it’s fun to watch. Health will always be a concern, but when he’s on the mound Bedard can be a difference-maker in fantasy and a pennant race.

The hasty analysis is to say this kills Bedard’s value as he moves from a pitcher’s haven in Safeco to a pitcher’s nightmare in Fenway, and that’s true, but let’s also note this: Bedard has been just fine on the road this season. In fact, he’s been significantly better than he’s been at home: 3 Wins, 2.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .203 BAA and 41 Ks in 41.2 innings on the road against 1 Win, 4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA and 46 Ks in 49.2 innings at home. So his spacious home ballpark has not exactly been a crutch for Bedard. Still, Safeco has been the 4th hardest place to score runs this year and Fenway has been the 3rd easiest. So yeah, the numbers may take a hit and fantasy owners are going to be benching Bedard a few more times against tough AL East offenses at home. But Bedard also goes from the worst run support in the league to the best. The Red Sox have scored 140 more runs than the Mariners this year, and that should easily translate into a couple more Ws down the stretch.

All is not lost, Bedard owners.

Trayvon Robinson is the big get in Seattle side of the trade. He’s a prototypical “toolsy” outfielder who brings some pretty decent speed and mediocre plate-discipline and on-base skills to the table, but he doesn’t register on the fantasy radar just yet. After a few years down on the farm working with the pitching machines he could end up being an impact top-of-the-order type of bat for the Mariners though, which isn’t bad considering Bedard was ready to walk after this season. It seems like a win-win situation for Seattle and Boston and no fantasy owners are left out in the cold either.

No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Aug. 2, 2011 at 1:28am in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

Floatsam and Jetsam: Miscellanea from the 2011 MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline

August 2, 2011

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

By Andrew Thell

Those of us who get excited for trade season are usually left crestfallen as trade deadlines come and go with little fanfare. 2011 wasn’t too shabby though, I give it a 6 (on a scale that doesn’t really have any meaning, but let’s say it goes to, oh, 10). I’m not going to say the non-waiver trade deadline that passed on Sunday was some kind of wild, raucous, landscape-altering affair, but there were definitely some doin’s a’ transpirin’ in the MLB over the last week and there are plenty of implications in both real life and fantasy that deserve our attention. We might not have seen a high volume of superstars trade places, but the proceedings were many and they will have an impact on pennant races and imaginary trophies alike. I’m doing a small series of posts on the biggest moves, but let’s take a few minutes and break down the second-tier headlines as succinctly as possible:

Carlos Beltran Makes a Move to the Bay

The Mets send Carlos Beltran to the Giants for pitching prospect Zach Wheeler.

It’s a major move in real life, but we can still keep this brief: Carlos Beltran moves from a shitty NL hitting environment with an injury-bitten, mediocre offense around him to a shitty NL hitting environment with an injury-bitten, downright-bad offense around him. Zach Wheeler is a major coup for the Mets: he’s a top-50 pitching prospect with good groundball and strikeout numbers who should be great in Citi Field in two years.

The Giants needed to add a big bat, and Beltran is certainly that. He’s proving he has plenty left in the tank with 15 HRs, 67 RBIs, an excellent .904 OPS and a league-leading 30 doubles thus far. The Giants have a fantastic pitching staff and could make noise with that alone in the postseason, but they know they still need to score some runs to hold onto the NL West and be serious competitors. Beltran should keep doing what he’s doing and instantly becomes the Giants’ best offensive player, but there’s not going to be any Jose Reyes to knock in every time he sends a ball to the outfield and teams will be even more inclined to pitch around Carlos. It seems like a minor downgrade to me. Back in the NYC, Lucas Duda figures to see regular playing time in right. I have no sympathy for you if you click that add button.

The Phightin’ Phillies Bag Hunter Pence

The Astros ship Hunter Pence to the Phillies for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a PTBNL.

I like Hunter Pence, but I can’t help but think the guy is a little overrated. Made the centerpiece of the Astros offense going into the season Pence has been decent, but his 11 HRs and .828 OPS don’t scream “star” to me. That’s what Houston advertised him as though, and in a market that was desperate for offense he generated plenty of interest. The Phils gave up a couple of middling prospects and Jarred Cosart, who has the stuff to pitch near the top of a rotation someday. That seems fair to me. I’m just not sure Pence is a huge upgrade over Dominic Brown, who Philly sent down to make room for Pence in the lineup. That makes Dom Brown and his owners the real losers in this deal. Que sera. He’ll be back soon enough. Pence has been a bit lucky in the BABIP dept this year, he no longer runs much, his power is just OK and the Philly lineup isn’t anything special these days, so while he should be a solid outfielder for the Phillies I’m not expecting anything dramatic in the second half.

Bourn to Braves and Ludwick to Pittsburgh, after the jump …

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No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Aug. 2, 2011 at 1:00am in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

Fantasy Baseball Busts – Buy, Sell, or Hold?

June 28, 2011

Adam Dunn White Sox

Adam Dunn asleep at the bat photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

We do our best in February and March. We spend countless hours crunching numbers, reading blogs, poring over spreadsheets and cheat sheets, picking our friends’ brains and buying draft guides. We do it all not just in the name of finding the big breakout candidates, but also to avoid the coming season’s big busts. It’s hard to win a league in the first ten rounds, but you sure can lose one. Despite these efforts, we end up those busts on rosters anyways. Every year, on nearly every roster, it happens to the best of us.

If you’re languishing in your league’s standings, odds are you have several big busts driving you batty, and as we approach the halfway point you’re wondering if it’s time to throw in the towel. In another month or so it might be time to wash your hands of the whole mess and turn to the poker table for your competitive fix … well, even more than you already have been. But it’s not too late to make a run in any league, even if it’s just a surge in the standings for the sake of pride. There are few things more satisfying than turning a disaster campaign around, and what is likely to define this effort is how you handle the busts, both yours and those of your league mates. In the words of Charles Bukowski, what matters most is how well you walk through the fire.

Let’s take a look at the most epic busts of the season thus far and talk about what’s to be done with them. We’ll define them as guys who came into the season as consensus top-100 picks that are currently ranked at least 75 spots below where they started in standard scoring leagues. I’ve looked extensively at the numbers, both traditional and Sabermetric, for all of the below (several of which because they’re on more than one of my rosters), but I’ll keep the comments on each brief and the stats few. It’s been a tough year, we’ve got a lot of ground to cover.

Today we’ll work on hitters, later this week we’ll get to the pitcher duds.

Which fantasy baseball big names to buy, sell and hold, after the jump …

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No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Jun. 28, 2011 at 10:30pm in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

“Once the Games Start… it’s Going to be Easy”

June 14, 2011

By: Andrew Thell

I love the steely look in Pat Riley’s eyes as they cut to him after LeBron predicts the eight titles. I like it almost as much as the blank “Oh shit, I’m not comfortable with that” looks on Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh’s faces after he says, “Once the games start … it’s going to be easy.” But before that, LeBron says he’s not about blowing smoke, he’s about business. That’s actually a point I’ll agree with. He’s taken the King James brand name very seriously – though he probably should have dropped the “king” moniker when he signed on to be Wade’s squire last offseason. But speaking of business, here’s a quick economics lesson: you can’t make change for a dollar with no fourth quarter. Oh! Puns! Schadenfreude! What fun. Thanks, Mavs, and congratulations. Dirk and JET deserved this one.

3 CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Jun. 14, 2011 at 8:44pm in NBA

Major League Baseball’s Best 1-2 Punches

June 8, 2011

Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda

Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

In the twilight of Major League Baseball’s Steroids Era we have entered into a period of pitching dominance. Home runs per game are at their lowest mark since 1992, scoring is down across the board, and pundits are tabbing 2011 the Year of the Pitcher. It’s not just that power is down on the offensive side, either. Franchises are doing a better job of handling their young talent these days. Developing arms are treated with more care than ever before, and despite what the willfully ignorant old guard might espouse nightly on local broadcasts across the country, pitch counts are having a positive effect on player health across baseball. With fewer and fewer Dusty Bakers and Joe Torres around, more young talent is staying healthy enough to not only blossom at the professional level but stick around.

When young pitchers do get injured, advances and refinements in the medical procedures are making full recovery an almost assumed outcome. Tommy John surgery is no longer seen as a death sentence for a young arm, but a mere bump in the road. And while the recovery rate isn’t 100% yet, many pitchers have come back from the procedure even stronger than before. The result is more quality young talent taking the mound in the MLB on a nightly basis than perhaps ever before.

And while pitching is thriving in the regular season this year, it’s the postseason where a couple of truly elite starters can dominate a series and put a team on their back for a World Series run. There are few things more frightening to an opponent than knowing they’ll be seeing a true ace on the mound for two games, and one of them is knowing they’ll be seeing two aces for potentially four games. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best 1-2 punches in Major League Baseball this season.

The top pitching duos in baseball, after the jump …

Read the rest of this article »

No CommentsPosted by Andrew Thell on Jun. 8, 2011 at 3:23pm in MLB

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