Empty the Bench

We’re still here; we’ve just been busy.

Some of you may have noticed that updates have been fewer and further between the past month or so, and for that we do apologize for keeping you in the lurch. As much as we might like to be, we are not machines, not even cyborgs, so we’ve been taking somewhat of a deep breath to recharge, travel, and get some sun. Everybody needs a break now and again, but don’t worry, we’re not going anywhere and I’m sure we’ll be ramping back up again soon.

I was away for 5 weeks traveling abroad in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and South Africa, and since coming home about 2 weeks ago have been rather busy with some travel writing. If you’re interested, I have a few short blog posts up on Lonely Planet about my time in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Kruger National Park; another one to follow shortly on Cape Town. A few months ago I also joined up with the award-winning online travel magazine Perceptive Travel and am writing weekly columns for the blog; all of them can be found here.

While I was away, longtime ETB contributor Zachariah Blott branched out on his own and launched Hoops Karma, a move which we announced a few weeks ago. Zach is obviously focusing a lot of his time and attention on his site, but will still be dropping by periodically to say hello and shit on Kobe. Hey, it’s a dirty job but somebody has to do it, right?

As for Andrew Thell, my partner in crime here at ETB, he was last seen on a frisbee golf course in Florida, NY, marveling at my putting skills and asking for tips on how to improve his midrange game. He also mentioned something about a lightsaber and has developed a F’real addiction.

In summary: We are here. We are not going anywhere. We thank you for reading. Come back soon.

Toodles,

Brian Spencer
Editor & Co-Founder

By Zachariah Blott

The World Cup kicked off Friday morning in host country South Africa, and with that the NBA Finals were completely forgotten by about 90% of the globe (including, ahem, your faithful editors at ETB). The Cup has and probably always will trump the NBA Finals in most parts of the world when it comes around every 4 years, so maybe it’s time the NBA’s players stopped swimming against the tide and joined in.

What if Team USA had access to a time machine and could start training the NBA’s future stars in the ways of the world’s most popular sport instead? Who would they target and for what positions? Lucky for you I pondered these questions and have some answers.

Here are your NBA members of the hypothetical 2010 World Cup champs (if Team USA soccer actually had a time machine, and, well, didn’t actually use it to help humanity):

Goalie: LeBron James

With his size, hops, and quick-twitch speed, LeBron would probably be the best goalie in the world. He’d pounce on any opponents who dribble their way into the middle, could block shots close to the goal that require lightning fast reflexes, and he’d easily snatch any crosses that were intended for headers anywhere in the box. His aggressive attitude would fit his massive frame well, controlling the penalty area to the point of intimidation.

Center Fullbacks: Ron Artest and Chris Andersen

Center fullbacks have to control the area in front of the goalie so that opponents never get an easy look to score. They need the physical and mental toughness to stand up to any world-class forward, and they need enough speed to cover up anything that slips by the fullbacks out on the wings or the midfielders. Not only that, they are usually two of the team’s taller players so that they can head looping crosses out of harm’s way. I’d say Artest and Andersen are just about the perfect combination of size, toughness, and attitude to ensure no one ever gets a clean look at the goal.

Left and Right Fullbacks: Monta Ellis and Russell Westbrook

You need fullbacks on the wing who are fast and annoying and all over anything that the opponents are trying to develop from the outside. They have to be relentless on defense and willing to push ahead quickly with the ball when the opportunity presents itself for a counter-attack. Ellis and Westbrook possess all the natural skills necessary, plus they’re both more than able to pester opponents into making bad decisions with the ball, or to turn poor passes into quick strikes the other way.

The rest of the NBA FIFA World Cup 2010 team after the break…

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By Zachariah Blott

We all know how Kobe Bryant, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, and Steve Nash have been performing during the playoffs, but oftentimes a club’s bench play can swing a few postseason games in directions the fans didn’t expect. Each team left standing sports at least one elite reserve capable of providing an offensive spark or some heady defense to keep things rolling.

Let’s break down the top bench player on each remaining squad and how they’ve helped their teams in the playoffs to this point.

Tony Allen, Boston Celtics, G/F

Allen is an explosive athlete who can pressure opposing defenses with his aggressive drives to the hoop or opposing offenses with his tenacity on or off the ball. Through 14 playoff games, he’s shooting 53% (37 for 69), chiefly by taking it to the hole to bank in lay-ups or for short jumpers. Or to make a statement. On top of that, he’s done a decent job getting to the line when he recognizes a mismatch against a slower defender. In the Second Round against Cleveland, Allen shot six free throws in the clinching Game Six, plus another six in the series’ turning point, Game Four. His attacking presence on offense allows the Celtics to keep their foot on the gas when necessary without having to rely on Rajon Rondo to do so for the entire game, similar to Kyle Lowry’s presence on Houston last year in the post-season.

On the defensive side, Allen’s speed and size (6-4, 215) allow the defensive-minded C’s some flexibility in their lineups and versatility in their matchups. He will guard point guards, shooting guards, or small forwards depending on which other green shirts are out there with him. His ball-hawking skills have resulted in 18 steals in the playoffs, second on Boston only to Rondo, the league’s steals leader, who has 30 (though it should be noted that Rondo has played 587 minutes to Allen’s 253).

Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic, G/F

Pietrus is the perfect reserve for Orlando: He shoots lots of threes at a high percentage and he can play defense. During the regular season, Pietrus connected on 38% of his triples for the league’s top long-range shooting squad, hitting 1.6 per. So far in the playoffs, he’s second on the team with 24 trifectas (just behind Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis’ 25) at a blistering 47%. Pietrus has rung up multiple threes in 8 of their 11 post-season games, but he’s only 3 for 10 against Boston through two. Besides shooting, he’s been smart with the ball, only turning it over six times in 232 minutes.

Orlando’s other calling card is defense, and the 6-6 athlete doesn’t disappoint there either. He has the length, quickness, and intelligence to stick whomever the Magic need him to guard. He’s recorded sevel steals and four blocks, which rank fifth and third on the team respectively.

Checking out the other top teams’ top reserves, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

LeBron James may have played his last game as a Cavalier, and it was a stinker. A triple-double stinker. He had 27 points (but on 38% shooting), 10 assists (but also 9 turnovers), and 19 rebounds. Not much to complain about with the 19 rebounds, but did anyone else notice he went out of his way to make even the most routine defensive boards with no Celtics around look like superhero grabs? James leapt over teammates who have obviously been trained to let him get the 50-50 ricochets, then he’d turn and sprint to half-court like he was playing capture the flag.

And that in itself illustrates the issue that many people suddenly have with James: he appears to be a lot more show than substance at times. It’s not like there weren’t signs all along. He slept below posters of himself while in high school. He hijacked KG’s pre-game white powder ritual and made sure everyone was watching him and only him while opponents were huddling up – you know, being a team. His well-known goal is to be a billionaire athlete; I’ve never read a quote by James concerning how many rings he’d like. He kept everyone in suspense for an entire year about the Slam Dunk competition he eventually skipped. You can bet he’ll drag out this summer’s free agency process for as many headlines as he can get.

So it’s officially the end of Year Seven of the most recent Next Jordan timeline, and again the Cavaliers have very little to show for James’ efforts. He won an MVP award for his individual play, but again Cleveland is out of contention sooner than they should be. Here’s a quick recap of Cleveland’s past seven years:

2003-04: James’ rookie season was a great success. The Cavs improved from 17 wins to 35, and James won the Rookie of the Year award by averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per.

2004-05: James amps it up, putting up pers of 27, 7, and 7 as the Cavaliers improve to 42-40, losing a tie-breaker to the Nets for the final playoff spot in the East.

2005-06: With an ensemble cast that resembles Iverson’s Sixers in 2001, Cleveland finishes fourth in the East, losing to the top-seeded Pistons 4-3 in the second round. Down 2 games to 1 in that series, James has a not-so-hot remainder of the season, shooting 41% (40 for 97) and collecting 21 assists to 20 turnovers.

2006-07: King James finally arrives in the Finals with the help of conference-wide ineptitude. In possibly the worst showing ever by the Eastern Conference during their decade-long status as second-class NBA basketball, Cleveland is one of only two teams in the East to win 50 games (Cavs 50, Pistons 53). The 41-41 Wizards were the 6 seed, the West won the All-Star Game by a zillion and it wasn’t even that close, and the Spurs swept the Cavs in the Championships. In the final series, James shot 36% (32 for 90) and had at least 5 turnovers in each of the four games. James shot a measly 42% for the entire playoffs, including 28% from deep.

2007-08: James’ individual numbers in the regular-season continue to amaze (30-8-7), and the Cavs finish fourth in the East that is suddenly dominated by KG’s Celtics. After squeaking by the 43-39 Wizards in the first round, the Cavaliers put up a valiant fight against the eventual champs, going down 4-3 to Boston. James shoots a horrid 35% (55 for 155) for the series with several games that looked like his recent Game Five turd. James averaged 6 turnovers in their 4 losses.

2008-09: James wins his first MVP award as Cleveland surges to finish an NBA-best 66-16 with a really well-paid lineup that LeBron had some say in. The Cavs are surrounding him with talent he gives the OK to, and they sweep through to the Eastern Finals to face the third-seeded Magic. After James buries a dramatic Game Two triple at the buzzer to tie the series, he shoots 43% the rest of the way (43 for 101) as Orlando wins relatively easily in six.

2009-10: Again he’s the MVP, and again Cleveland sports the NBA’s top record with one of the highest paid squads. James wants Shaq. Done. James wants Antawn Jamison and gets him, even though it requires a trade-and-re-sign diss to 11-year company man Zydrunas Ilgauskas. The Cavs get by the 41-41 Bulls in the First Round and then face the aging, up-and-down Celtics. Cleveland loses in 6 (and was the lesser team in Game One) with James shooting 37% (25 for 68) and turning it over 24 times versus 29 assists in the four losses. After his much talked-about Game Five crapfest, James tells reporters that he spoils fans with his great play and feels bad for himself.

Speculating on LeBron James’ future, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

For the second straight year, Celtics PG Rajon Rondo is following up a very good regular season with a tremendous postseason. The diminutive speedster went off on Cleveland Sunday night in Game Four of the second round, putting up a Oscar Robertson-esque 29 points, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists in a series-tying 97-87 win.

Although this single performance was historically noteworthy, his averages and individual lines during the entire playoffs are downright intimidating for a 6-1, 170-pound point guard. In five first round games against Miami, Rondo averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists per. He also picked up 12 steals in the series, snagging at least 2 in every game.

Then it was onto the real challenge: Cleveland in the the second round. Through four games, he’s filling the stat sheet to the tune of 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 13 assists per. He has 5 steals against the league’s top team, and he’s shooting 52%.

Behind Rondo’s outstanding big-game step-up-manship, Boston has LeBron’s squad locked in a dogfight that’s now a best-of-three series.

If Rondo was putting up numbers like Chris Paul during the regular season, this would all look like superstar business as usual. That’s not the case, however. Rondo’s season was a respectable 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists per, which earned him his first All-Star Game appearance, but it certainly was no clear harbinger of what was to follow. Beyond the suddenly increased averages, he already has 1 triple-double in the playoffs after recording only 2 in his 81 regular-season contests.

Last year went the same way for Rondo. His regular season pers were 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists. Once the playoffs hit, he was a do-it-all machine, averaging 17, 10, and 10. Again, he only recorded 2 triple-doubles before the playoffs, but he went for 3 in 14 post-season games. Even with a veteran squad filled with plenty of players more than capable of contributing in every which way, Rondo has shown a penchant for taking over when it really counts.

If there’s one thing every coach would give his left arm for, it’s players who are good enough to get you to the playoffs who then really step it up once you’re there. This type of player ends up with championships and with the tag of “winner” bestowed upon him by fans – guys like Bill Russell, whose career 15-22-4 became 16-25-5 in the post-season (because it was harder to get credited with assists back in the 60′s, Russell’s assist totals often lead his team during the post-season; Bill Walton wasn’t the only one) are known as winners. Then you look at someone like Wilt Chamberlain, and his averages of 30-23-4 on 54% shooting dipped to 23-24-4 on 52% once it really mattered. The one has 11 rings, the other has 2 and was labeled a “loser” for most of his career. Guess why.

Throw in the stellar defense Rondo has displayed early in his career (he was just named All-Defensive First Team), and Boston arguably has the best point guard in the NBA right now.

Let’s take a quick look at how he stacks up against the other top 1′s around the league.

Where Rondo ranks among the NBA’s point guards, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

The NBA All-Defensive teams were announced on Wednesday; as expected, we saw some big names on the First Team who have no business being named at all, and there was the annual exclusion of some obvious selections any half-knowledgeable fan would make.

The First Team was comprised of Dwight Howard, Gerald Wallace, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Rajon Rondo. The Second Team was made up of Tim Duncan, Anderson Varejao, Josh Smith, Thabo Sefolosha, and Dwyane Wade. The coaches, who vote for the All-Defensive Teams, never disappoint when it comes to picking stars who they’re supposed to pick, basically big-name players who get grandfathered in just like MLB’s Gold Glove winners.

There is a reason that a) NBA coaches are constantly fired and usually have very little influence over a team’s success in hindsight, and b) the Cavaliers and Lakers signed defensive specialists on the wing to start next to James and Bryant. Kobe and LeBron have no place on these teams, and plenty of less well-known defenders (i.e. guys who don’t compile lots of blocks and steals, ESPN’s idea of the end-all-be-all for measuring the defensive worth of a player) never seem to get their due.

Issues With The First Team

Just so no one gets the wrong idea, I do not think Bryant and James are bad defenders. In fact, both have shown the tenacity to lock down their man in one-on-one situations when they absolutely have to. The problem is, they’re seldom in these situations. Both of their clubs hire defensive artists to do the tough work for 90% of the games that matter.

Ron Artest is the leauge’s premier wing defender, displaying the size, strength, belligerent attitude, and determination to wreck any opposing player’s night. During the six games in the First Round, Kevin Durant was tested by Artest and pestered into shooting an abysmal 35% from the field and only 29% from three. His shooting percentage topped 46%, the league average, for only one game during the series, and that was a 6-for-12 performance that yielded only 22 points. There’s a reason Artest is asked to make life hard for the NBA’s top scorer and Kobe guarded Thabo Sefolosha for four games and Russell Westrook, who has no outside shot and can be backed off of (why 3 of Westbrook’s 5 trifectas came with the Mamba on him), for two contests.

Not only is Bryant clearly not the best wing defender on LA, Lamar Odom is second to Artest in terms of defensive versatility and competence on the Lakers. He gets a lot of tough assignments down the stretch of games because he’s able to handle just about any player in any spot on the floor. Consequently, some of the more advanced defensive numbers rank Odom very highly. His Defensive Rating was fourth in the league (100.4) and his Defensive Win Shares were sixth (4.9), both well ahead of Kobe, who ranked fourth and third on the team in these categories.

In LeBron’s case, he leans on Anthony Parker to do most of the heavy defensive lifting on perimeter scorers for the majority of the game. There’s a reason Cleveland picked up the 6-6 shooting guard to displace Delonte West, a much better offensive option, from the starting lineup. Between Parker taking the tough assignments and the presence of veteran 7-footers and the splendid Anderson Varejao in the paint, James regularly gets lost in the mix, sagging off some harmless opponent, waiting to poach poor passes that his teammates’ pressure created.

As with Bryant, it’s hard to argue that James ranks higher than third on his own team in terms of defensive impact. Parker was hired to do the work so James doesn’t have to, and Varejao brings the grit and Red Bull energy to his multi-faceted post defense, doing such a good job that he was named to the Second-Team and finished in the top-10 of Defensive Player of the Year voting while coming off the bench.

Mr. Blott picks his NBA All-Defensive team, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

Best-of-seven series in the NBA can drag on a long time and take a lot of twists and turns. They force teams that want to win to control momentum, steal a few wins on the road, and to dominate match-up disparities they should dominate. Only two teams have come out and looking like championship material, showing that they can do all of these things in the early part of the playoffs: the Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs.

Don’t extrapolate what I’m saying too far. I’m not about to put any money on these two when the league and its advertisers have been bombarding us with LeBron vs. Kobe, Cleveland vs. Los Angeles plot lines for two solid years. It’s not 1979 anymore; I’ve come to expect the sexy teams to win.

That being said, here are the tremendous post-season resumes of Orlando and San Antonio through the first round, plus some notes on what the other contenders have lacked up to this point.

Orlando Magic

For starters, they’re the only team to sweep their first-round series, which has to count for something. That means they won two in Charlotte, where the Bobcats were 31-10 during the regular season. Game Three was particularly telling in this series after the Magic had won both home games by carrying double-digit leads through most of the two second halves.

Charlotte lead by five at the half in the third game, and were holding even going into the fourth quarter before succumbing 90-86. The key reason Orlando had to grind out a tough final period to effectively end the series was that their customary trifectas weren’t falling. They hit only 9 of 30 deep balls (30%) in the contest, so they turned to plan B, which was dominant rebounding (43-33) and stellar defense (holding Charlotte to 42% FG and 22% 3FG). Even with their main offensive calling card neutralized, they had enough counter-punches to get the win.

Orlando re-found their downtown touch in Game Four (13-33 from three, 39%), controlling the second half on the way to a series-ending 99-90 win, making them one of only two teams to win two road games in the first round (The other? Phoenix). The Magic have shown that if they have at least one of their three strengths working for them in any given contest—three-point shooting, defensive rebounding, and team defense—they can win the tough games. Sound familiar, Cleveland fans?

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs were the only underdog to win in the first round (a 53-29 Jazz squad beating a 53-29 Nuggets squad doesn’t count). It came against a 55-win Dallas team that was sporting some new talent, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, and fresh off an 8-2 finish down the stretch. The Mavericks looked to have the West’s best chance of knocking off the loaded Lakers, and their prospects appeared to be decent against an aging Spurs team. Especially one with the recently re-activated Tony Parker coming off the bench and their big free agent grab, Richard Jefferson, contributing his worst scoring and three-point shooting numbers since he was a rookie (12 points per, 32% 3FG).

Dallas threw around its muscle in Game One, outrebounding Duncan and Co. 45-37 and getting to the line 20 more times than SA (34-14). The result was a barely gratifying 100-94 victory. The Spurs know what to do in the playoffs, though, and they came through with one exploited match-up after another, shooting 48% over the next three games while holding most of Dallas’ talent in check; Nowitzki was the only Mav to both score and shoot well for the series (27 points per, 55% FG). The Spurs took all three, came out with a rest-the-starters stinker in Game Five (Duncan, 24 minutes; Ginobili, 18; McDyess, 14; Jefferson, 24; Hill, 29) without relinquishing momentum. They went home with a 3-2 lead and nearly put it to bed by the end of the first quarter (22-8) in Game Six. They rode out a run-and-gun fourth to a 97-87 win, clinching the series.

The Spurs would like to remind everyone that they always turn it on in the playoffs, regularly get big performances out of secondary guys (over the last four games, George Hill scored 20 per, shot 55%, and hit 7 of 15 bombs), are the most intelligent team by a mile, played without Parker for 26 games and without the way underrated Matt Bonner for 17, went 18-8 to finish the season, and just dismantled one of the NBA’s four best teams.

Sizing up the rest of the field, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

Going down 0-2 in a playoff series isn’t necessarily a death sentence, but having to win four of five is never a situation a coach wants to find his squad in.

That’s exactly what Milwaukee’s Scott Skiles faced 1 week ago, and it wasn’t looking too cheery before then either. Not only did the Bucks lose center Andrew Bogut, their best player and defensive stopper, but they were squaring off with the third-seeded Hawks, who posted an intimidating 34-7 mark at home and went 7-3 down the stretch, including wins over the Lakers and Cavaliers.

The first two games in this series, in Atlanta, went according to form: the Hawks went up early because they have more talent and then rode out the fourth quarters to wins that were even easier than the 10-point win margins indicated. Milwaukee tried to steal one of those two games by tossing up tons of triples, something they did during the regular season (sixth-most threes in the league, which is really good when you consider that the Bucks play at a measured pace). Instead they clanked 34 of 44 attempts from downtown and were on their way home for Game Three in a 0-2 hole.

Everyone figured the Bucks had stopped there (including me). Maybe they’d pull out an emotional Game Three in front of a crowd starved for postseason action, but no one outside of Wisconsin expected what happened next.

Milwaukee came out smoking hot at the Bradley Center in the third game, building a 17-point lead by the end of the first quarter behind stellar three-point shooting (10-23 for the game), cruising to a 107-89 blowout. Good for them, most pundits felt, and then they showed in Game Four that they could also grind it out for an entire contest in winning 111-104. This time, they did it without ever holding a big lead, but again nailing the triples that eluded them in the first two games (7 for 18, 39%).

Game Five back in Atlanta turned out to be a true beauty. With four minutes left, the Hawks were sitting on a comfortable 82-73 lead, looking to make the NBA universe right again by taking back the series’ momentum as the healthy higher seed. Instead the Bucks went into attack mode in a big-time way, nailing a couple threes, driving like crazy to get to the line (9-12 on free throws in the last four minutes), and stopping the Hawks cold, taking the game and the series lead with a 91-87 gem.

How the heck did the Bucks do it? How did they stop a series that looked like it could be a runaway train and actually take the a 3-2 lead while Bogut sits on the bench with a deformed right arm?

How the Bucks have turned the series around after the break…

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By Zachariah Blott

Veteran defending champions should take care of inexperienced clubs who some considered lucky to make the playoffs. Teams who lost multiple starters due to injuries have no business hanging with higher-seeded teams that are fully intact. Squads overflowing with talent don’t get pushed aside by rosters that were considered too old years ago.

A lot of things that shouldn’t be happening in the playoffs are taking place right now in the Western Conference. In fact, the current standings of all four series are a bit surprising. If things keep up, we’ll have to stop saying “should” and “shouldn’t” as early as this weekend.

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder (tied 2-2)

One week ago, this match-up looked to be a thanks-for-coming butt whopping delivered by the defending champs upon the playoff newbies. The Lakers’ frontline trio of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom averaged 44 points (on 33 shots) and 29 rebounds per, comparing favorably to the 1981 championship Celtics’ frontline, which is generally regarded as the best in NBA history. (That would be Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, who combined for 50 points [on 41 shots] and 25 rebounds per.)

LA also has Ron Artest, the NBA’s premier perimeter defender, and Derek Fisher, a super-clutch PG with four rings. Throw in one of the highest-paid benches that features a great mix of veterans and young up-and-comers, and it just didn’t seem fair. And then you add Kobe Bryant to the mix. Dear god.

The Thunder have excitement and a fun-to-watch quality on their side, but despite their long-term projection as a possible NBA powerhouse, they frankly have no business being in this series after four games. Their starting lineup has a combined 600 career playoff minutes, not quite two-thirds of what Kobe had last year alone. It was assumed Artest would make it difficult for Durant to score, the Laker bigs would bully Oklahoma City’s afterthought-of-a-frontline around the paint, and experience would easily push youthful exuberance right out of the playoffs.

At this point, though, the Thunder are looking to become only the second #8 seed ever to knock off the top seed in a best-of-seven series (#8 Golden State beat #1 Dallas in 2007). Los Angeles predictably took the first two, but both contests were close. The Lakers won Game One by eight, 87-79, but they were outscored by the Thunder over the last three quarters. Game Two was a nailbiter, with LA prevailing 95-92 behind a dominating rebounding performance (49 to 37) and Kobe’s splendid 13-15 free throw shooting.

Then the series swung over to Oklahoma City and things got interesting in a hurry. Kevin Durant threw his stick figure body into the mix for 19 rebounds and James Harden scored a big 18 points on only 7 shots off the bench in a 101-96 Game Three win. And then the Game Four shellacking happened, a 110-89 Thunder victory that wasn’t even that close. Now the Lakers are trying to figure out how to handle a green squad that’s sticking the defensive screws to everyone’s pick to win the West.

It’s now a three-game series with OKC holding all the momentum. Durant really hasn’t blown up yet in any game this series and Russell Westbrook’s speed is proving to be too much for a veteran Laker squad. Everyone predicted the Lakers would prevail within 5 games; now they’ll be lucky just to prevail.

Catch up on the rest of the West after the break…

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By Zachariah Blott

Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Bobcats

1) There is just no defense to stop a team with multiple three-point shooters in the starting lineup and multiple three-point shooters off the bench. If there was, Larry Brown would have found it by now. Instead, the Magic have hit 23 trifectas through two games, which were two easy wins even with the Bobcats having a higher FG% and grabbing more rebounds. Don’t forget that many of Orlando’s long-range shooters have hard-to-defend height (6-10 Rashard Lewis, 6-10 Ryan Anderson, 6-6 Mickael Pietrus, and 6-6 Vince Carter won’t stay 0-9 outside).

2) Turnover margin is the most important stat that almost no one looks at. Of the Four Factors, turnover margin is the second-most important number when evaluating why a team wins or loses. So far, the Bobcats have turned it over 5 and 7 times more than the Magic, which creates 4- and 5- point swings at numerous points throughout a game. Something to keep an eye on in the second round if Orlando gets through: these turnovers have more to do with Charlotte’s O than the Magic’s D. Charlotte was the only team in the league to turn the ball over on more than 15 percent of their possessions this year (15.1).

Orlando Magic lead 2-0. Next game: Saturday in Charlotte

Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

1) Andrew Bogut’s defensive presence is what drove the Bucks. Milwaukee’s improvement from last year to this year can be attributed almost completely to their improved D, which roadblock centers are always the most important piece of. After a nasty arm break, the big Aussie isn’t playing in the postseason, which has allowed Atlanta to get away with Offensive Ratings of 118 and 111 in their first two wins. Milwaukee’s offense is definitely not strong enough to keep up with this sort of onslaught.

2) Good luck figuring out who to lock down in Atlanta’s starting lineup. All five have gone for double-digits in both games, including the underrated trio of Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford. In Game 2, all three scored at least 20 on a combined 29-47 shooting (62%). Don’t forget that the Hawks also bring Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford off the bench. He averaged 18 per during the regular season, able to both get to the rim and shoot spot-up triples.

Atlanta Hawks lead 2-0. Next game: Saturday in Milwaukee

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

1) Admit it: you forgot about the Celtics and assumed their team plane crashed somewhere. After playing .500 ball for the past two months, Boston came out and jacked the fourth quarter from Miami in Game 1, taking it big-brother style, 21-10 for a 9-point victory. Then everyone remembered that the Celtics are filled with Playoff-tested vets who play unselfishly and bust their humps on defense. Even with Garnett riding the pine due to a one-game suspension, the C’s had Game 2 locked up early in the 3rd quarter, winning 106-77.

2) Dwyane Wade really, really needs a new supporting cast. He’s been forced to do everything as the rest of his starting lineup has provided him with exactly one double-digit scorer each game. Michael Beasley should be a far more consistent contributor by this point (his college stats were better than Durant’s, in the same conference no less), but his head may not be in it. It looks like Wade will re-sign with Miami this summer, but they better bring in another max-contract guy or it won’t become long before that 2006 ring looks about 15 years old.

Boston Celtics lead 2-0. Next game: Friday in Miami

Cleveland Cavaliers-Chicago Bulls

1) As much as we know who all of LeBron’s teammates are, he really is doing most of this himself, which spells doom for later in the playoffs. There is no reason an eighth seed that played poorly down the stretch is hanging around with a team that was 20 games better during the regular season. The Cavs have had only one overpowering quarter in each of the series’ three games; otherwise the two squads have been pretty even. James is doing his usually dominating thing, and then you got … uh … Antawn Jamison? Mo Williams? Admit it, you think Cleveland’s second-best player is Anderson Varejao, a reserve. There is no way a club that’s barely staying ahead of this Bulls team is making it to the Finals unless, well, you know.

2) That being said, Cleveland will continue to win some games if they keep shooting 49% and averaging 24 assists per 38 made field goals a night. A huge part of this is obviously due to LeBron’s contagious passing chops, but don’t forget that they have plenty of smart players (Anthony Parker, Varejao) and legitimately decent passers (Shaq, Williams, Delonte West). A lot of this has to do with playing Chicago, but ball movement and smart shot selection really do get internalized after a while.

Cleveland Cavaliers lead 2-1. Next game: Sunday in Chicago

Breaking down the rest of the first-round matchups, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

The playoffs got rolling over the weekend, and some teams are already getting feisty (KG’s Celtics) and others already have more injury concerns (Utah’s Mehmet Okur tore his Achilles). Sixteen teams have started their quest to keep their seasons going for another two months, but 14 clubs are already done with little to look forward to this summer except the June 24 draft and free agency.

Here’s a breakdown of the seven Western Conference teams on the outside looking in, and what type of outlook they have while everyone else is playing for a banner.

Golden State Warriors (26-56)

The Hope: First of all, congratulations to the Warriors for not tanking the end of the season for higher draft position, going 6-4 over their last 10 games. Stephen Curry turned out to be a phenomenal rookie talent, registering a triple-double, shooting 43% from downtown, averaging 22-5-7 for the last three months, and increasing his shooting percentages and scoring load throughout the year. GS did a great job integrating D-Leaguers into the lineup, and they return all the key pieces (Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Randolph, Andris Biedrins, Kelenna Azubuike) from the most injury-filled season in NBA history, resulting in this first-of-its-kind situation.

But Don’t Forget: When you have that many injuries, you know some of them are harbingers of what’s to come for a few of these guys. Because of all the lineup mix-and-matching going on this year and the good possibility of a new coach, there is not much focus for next year. Who are they going to build this team around? If it’s Curry, you got a few me-first scorers (Ellis, Maggette) who will implode the team and drive fans crazy. What are they going to do with Anthony Randolph, one of the most amazing physical freaks in the league, whose development is behind schedule?

Houston Rockets (42-40)

The Hope: Houston had a winning record with a 6-6 center starting in place of an injured Yao Ming for an entire season. Genius GM Daryl Morey has built a roster of role players who are able to play well together while forgoing personal stats for the sake of the team. The Rockets landed a true number one scorer in Kevin Martin, and it looks like they’ll be able to keep PF Luis Scola and PG Kyle Lowry. Second-round rookie Chase Budinger was a pleasant surprise as a versatile defensive player and providing some pop off the bench. They have Minnesota’s second-round pick (#32 overall), which Morey will get value out of.

But Don’t Forget: It’s obvious the Rockets need a taller interior defender to clean things up at the rim, and Yao Ming has had a string of bad injuries for the past five years. Kevin Martin is not interested in playing defense, and his shooting is streaky and often inefficient. 2010-11 is the Rockets’ last season with their main core under contract, then almost everyone of note becomes a free agent.

Los Angeles Clippers (29-53)

The Hope: Blake Griffin, the 2009 number one pick, “returns” next season, likely to be the Clips’ best player. Chris Kaman turned in one of his best seasons to date (19-9) and made the All-Star team after not even being listed on the ballot; there’s no reason to believe he can’t be just as effective next year. The LA JV team is way under the cap (on the books for only $34 million next year) and has the money to offer a big contract to an impact player plus make a run at decent role-players.

But Don’t Forget: Donald Sterling is still the owner, so nothing but bad karma is bound to follow the Clippers. Baron Davis is the league’s gutsiest player, but he can’t shoot (41% FG, 28% 3FG) and he loves to shoot. Eric Gordon, who has always relied on his athleticism, appears to have already plateaued, doing virtually nothing better than his rookie season. In case you missed it, these are the Clippers, so they will screw up the draft, screw up the head coach selection, and screw up free agency. God, justifiably, does not like Mr. Sterling.

Checking in with Memphis through Sacramento, after the jump …

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By Zachariah Blott

The NBA playoffs get rolling on Saturday, and all eyes will be on the big-name match-ups (Kobe vs Durant) and possible upsets (It’s not far-fetched for OKC to topple LA in round one. How about Spurs-Mavericks?). And while 16 teams will pull out all the stops to keep their seasons going for another two months, 14 clubs are already done with little to look forward to this summer except the June 24 draft and free agency.

Here’s a breakdown of the seven Eastern Conference teams on the outside looking in, and what type of view they have while everyone else is playing for a banner.

Detroit Pistons (27-55)

The Hope: PF Jonas Jerebko was one of the steals of the second-round, ending up with a solid rookie campaign (9 points and 6 boards per, 48% FG). Rodney Stuckey is establishing himself as an explosive, to-the-rim player who’s fun to watch. The Pistons have a little bit of money to use this summer, and GM Joe Dumars is due to make something out of it after last year’s “haul” (Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva). They can probably resign a resurgent Ben Wallace for nothing if he doesn’t retire.

But Don’t Forget: That shine from their six-year run at the title (2003-2008, including a Championship in 2004) is completely gone. Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are starting to look a little long in the tooth, and athletic wings in their 30′s can fall off quickly. The lackluster duo of Gordon and Villanueva lock up a lot of money for the next four seasons.

Indiana Pacers (32-50)

The Hope: The Pacers are serious about making some moves and trades (notably Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, and TJ Ford) to start rebuilding ASAP. They play at an exciting pace, and second-year players Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush are looking good. Rookie Tyler Hansbrough showed some nice things (and some injury concerns). With any luck, they’ll convince underrated PG Earl Watson to stay. I know it’s a year off, but they have almost nothing on the books beyond next summer and could find themselves in the mix for some big free agents in 2011.

But Don’t Forget: They have terrible rebounding issues, and Hibbert and Jeff Foster are way too slow to provide this help in Indy’s system. Danny Granger is good, but he’s not the guy you want as your best player if your goal is a winning season. The Pacers don’t have a lot of money or a high enough draft pick (likely 10th) to make a real splash this summer, and Murphy and Dunleavy probably won’t be traded before mid-season when their shooting and expiring contracts would be most valuable to a contender.

New Jersey Nets (12-70)

The Hope: Despite ending up with one of the worst records of all-time, the Nets finished relatively strong after starting the year with nearly every half-decent player injured at the same time. New Jersey returns every player worth keeping (Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Yi Jianlian), and they have a humongous pile of cash sitting around to sign a max contract and/or numerous supporting cast members, plus they hold a top-four draft pick.

But Don’t Forget:The max contract guy they’re most likely to sign is Carlos Boozer, and he’s regularly injured and not a team leader. The fan base is a bit down after this pooper of a year, and the supposed-to-be new owner has some serious business ethics issues to work out (though that never stopped the Clippers’ Donald Sterling). Two of the likely top-four draft picks are freshmen who apparently don’t like to be coached (Kentucky’s John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins), so their added value could be offset by team chemistry issues.

Checking in with the Knicks through Wizards, after the jump …

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