Empty the Bench

I’ve admittedly soured some over the past few years on Dwight Howard, a once-generally likeable guy whose on-court demeanor has steadily become irksome and a little hard to watch. He blames the refs for calling him differently becauase of his size, still hasn’t bothered to learn how to shoot free throws (this season’s 54% is actually the worst of his seven-year career), still hasn’t developed a repertoire of moves outside the dunk… it’s almost like he’s content to be Shaquille O’Neal 2.0, without the rings and with slightly less narcissism.

Still, this one got me. In case you somehow missed it, following his team’s shellacking–and his laughably bad individual performance–on Monday Night Football this week against the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals QB Derek Anderson had the kind of memorable meltdown we haven’t seen in years. Howard couldn’t resist the opportunity to pay homage to it. Make sure to watch the whole clip to catch the original performance, too.

By Brian Spencer

I should have known better.

Heading into the Patriots’ Week 10 matchup with the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Tom Brady had been performing like your everyday, run-of-the-mill fantasy quarterback. Since Week 3 against the toothless Buffalo Bills, Goldie Locks had thrown more than 2 TD passes just once and had yet to top 300 yards passing in any game, period. Real-life wins and losses matter not in the ratings driver that is this imaginary sport: while Brady was leading his Patriots to the top of the AFC, he was simultaneously barely keeping millions of imaginary teams above water, including mine.

Detroit Lions backup Shaun Hill, on the other hand, had become a viable low-end QB1 for over a month after stepping in for the injured Matthew Stafford (he of the golden throwing arm with a throwing shoulder made of Pyrite). During a four-week span before he suffered an injury of his own (broken left forearm), Hill posted the highly useful totals of 1,130 yards passing (including two games with over 330 yards), 8 TDs, and 6 INTs. The picks limited his value, to be sure, but two or three of those were the receiver’s fault, not Hill’s.

You know where this is going, right?

Fast forward to Week 10, which saw Brady travel to Pittsburgh to take on one of the best defenses in the league, and Hill make his return behind center for the Lions at Buffalo, which was fielding one of the statistically worst defenses in the league. Things hadn’t been the same in New England since Brady lost his lone, consistent playmaker in Randy Moss; things also hadn’t been the same–in a good way–in Detroit since Calvin Johnson began flexing his muscles, Nate Burleson came back to the lineup, and Brandon Pettigrew had developed into one of the NFC’s leading pass-catching tight ends.

In the end, I went against my best judgement (and my own fantasy advice) and got cute: I played the matchup and started Hill. That didn’t work out so hot:

Brady: 30-43, 350 yards, 3 TDs, 1 rushing TD, 35.87 fantasy points
Hill: 29-50, 323 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 17.64 fantasy points

That’s a difference of about 18 points; I lost my matchup by 23, but that’s besides the point. (Adrian Peterson, I don’t appreciate that performance, buddy.)

In getting cute and benching the guy I drafted with my second-overall pick for a guy I picked up on waivers, I rode short-term logic and ignored long-term results. Real-life results like the fact that Brady has a higher career QB Rating against the Steelers than anybody else, and that Brady has beaten Pittsburgh six of seven times and four of five times in Pittsburgh. And that Brady has proven he can step up in big games regardless of who he’s throwing to. Hill? Well, Hill has a YMCA physique, journeyman’s pedigree, and wears honolulu blue for a team that never, ever wins on the road.

I don’t expect you to care about my fantasy team’s fate, specifically, but there’s a moral to this story: don’t bench your studs, especially this late in the season. Don’t outsmart yourself. You drafted these guys in the first, second, and third rounds for a reason, and even if they’ve underperformed up until this point, you can’t turn back now as long as they’re healthy. Roll with ‘em and hope for the best.

Tom Brady Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Brian Spencer

Thomas Jones just can’t get any respect.

One season removed from his fifth consecutive season with at least 1,110 yards rushing, the 11-year vet has found himself in the unfortunate, totally-not-his-fault position of being the roadblock that’s holding the dynamo that is Jamaal Charles back. When the Kansas City Chiefs signed Jones in the offseason to a two-year, $5 million deal, most of us thought it was both a vote of no-confidence by KC brass in Charles’ ability to be “the guy”, as well as a foolish bet on a fading horse with a lot of miles on his hooves. We’ve said it once and we’ll say it 10 more times: the dropoff for over-the-hill running backs can be a precipitous one, and Jones seemed like he was heading for a LaDainian Tomlinson-like fall.

Well, LT has been borderline brilliant during the first half of his bounceback season for the New York Jets, Charles has proven he’s quite capable when given the opportunity, and Jones, well, he’s been solid, not spectacular, but I’m guessing solid and effective is better than most people figured he’d be. Together with Charles, Jones has helped elevate the Chiefs’ rushing attack to the top of the NFL at 179.6 yards per at the season’s halfway point. He’s ran for 570 yards (4.2 YPC), scored 3 TDs, and has not turned the ball over. That puts him on pace for his sixth-straight season with at least 1,100 rushing yards; folks, it’s time to give credit where credit is due.

I know: Charles needs more touches. I don’t disagree. I’ve already watched more bits and pieces of Chiefs games this season than I probably have the last few seasons combined, and it feels like every time I look up Charles is sprinting between the tackles for 25 yards, taking it around the end for 34 yards, and generally threatening to take it all the way every time he gets his hand on the ball. His 719 yards rushing are good for sixth-most in the NFL, and of the 17 running backs with at least 500 yards rushing, he has the least amount of carries with 113; only two backs in this group, Tomlinson and LeSean McCoy, have less than 130 carries.

Forget about Charles though…

Still, it’s not Jones’ fault that Charles isn’t getting as much burn as he could and probably should be: the guy’s not just going to step aside with a polite curtsy and defer to the youngster. Time and time again, it seems like Jones is the fall guy, the obstacle, the unwanted producer in the backfield who’s to blame for holding somebody or another back. In Chicago, it was Cedric Benson who was given every opportunity to unseat Jones, but failed. Last year in New York, it was Shonn Greene who, until the playoffs, couldn’t usurp a significant amount of carries away from Jones. Now, it’s Charles, though in this case it seems more like coaching strategy, game planning, and depth than anything else.

Drafted seventh overall all the way back in 2000 by the Arizona Cardinals, Jones’ career got off to an inauspicious start. He failed to break 511 rushing yards in any of his three seasons in the desert, then moved on to Tampa Bay for a season. He had the look of career journeyman. Another bust in a long line of first-round running back busts.

Then something happened: a guy who I believe came into the league with a reputation for speed began running harder, stopped going east and west, hit the holes, and became somewhat of a bruiser. At 5-10 and 212 pounds, he’s certainly never been a “power back” in the mold of, say, Brandon Jacobs, but for the sake of the Chicago Bears and Jets, thank God he’s not Jacobs. In three seasons with the Bears, Jones rushed for nearly 3,500 yards and 22 TDs, and in the same amount of time with the Jets totaled 3,800 rushing yards and 31 TDs.

If he stays healthy, in a few weeks Jones will eclipse the 10,000 rushing yards and 70 career TDs marks. Only 24 other RBs in NFL history have exceeded that number, and by the time he calls it a day he could easily find himself in the top-18. That’s remarkable for a guy who’s mostly flown under the radar during his 11 NFL seasons, and to me, he’s worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.

There’s nothing wrong with clamoring for more Jamaal Charles; I want to see it too, but Thomas Jones has earned his carries this season. He deserves every single one of them.

By Joel Martin

It’s rainy season in the Bay Area, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders brought sloppy play to match the sloppy weather in Week 9. The game was billed as the coming-out party for two former contenders returning to the spotlight, but I saw two young, undisciplined teams with a lot of talent. Check back in a couple years and we’ll have some contenders. Yesterday, penalties said it all: 14 penalties on the Raiders and 12 on the Chiefs (tying a season high in the NFL).

Chiefs Running Backs

The lead story of this one has to be the Chiefs’ running back situation. We all know that head coach Todd Haley’s been playing an odd game with how he distributes the workload between Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, but until now it hasn’t cost them a game.

Yesterday against one of the worst run defenses in the league, a week after Charles went off for 238 total yards, he was again the clear backup. This makes no sense at all. Thomas Jones is a fine back, but he’s not in the same league as Jamaal Charles. The latter goes for at least six yards on 60% of his carries, and averages 6.5 YPC overall. Jones gets you two or three yards, with the occasional run of 5-10, for 4.0 YPC overall.

The Chiefs should have Charles as the feature back with Jones coming in to rest him, not the other way around. You saw it Sunday every time KC touched the ball. The commentary crew kept talking about how the Raiders had really “shown something” with their run stopping on Sunday, but that was only true with Jones carrying the ball. When Charles ran the ball, they looked porous and slow. For the game, Charles ran 10 times for 53 yards (5.3 YPC), while Jones ran 19 times for 32 yards (1.7 YPC).

If you reverse the carries and assume the same YPC, the Chiefs run for a healthy 118 yards instead of a pedestrian 85 and probably win handily instead going to overtime again, this time losing. Now obviously that’s a big assumption, but 45 extra rushing yards means a couple of extended drives, possibly a field goal or touchdown, and less time at the end of the game for Oakland to mount their comeback.

Either way, Chiefs win.

The only thing I can think of to justify the carry distribution is keeping the veteran happy. That works as long as you keep winning, but now that it cost them a game, I have to imagine they’ll see the light.

Raiders’ Running Backs

The first possession for Oakland was three runs to Darren McFadden, all to the outside. If he gets around the corner or catches a pass in the open he’s great, with good speed and leaping ability. But they didn’t go to the middle, and there’s a reason. He’s tall (6’2”/210lbs) and runs with a very upright style. This works for Adrian Petetrson (6’1”/220lbs) because of his strength, but I haven’t seen the same from McFadden. Power sweeps to the outside were his bread-and-butter in college, and the Raiders seem to have finally figured it out.

It often seems like McFadden has been disappointing us for years, but he’s actually only 23 years old. If offensive coordinator Hugh Jackson can tailor the offense to his abilities, big things will continue. That said, the Raiders should keep Michael Bush involved through the middle, and if they do he’ll stay a viable fantasy option. (The Raiders also have a delicious playoff schedule for running backs – @JAC, DEN, IND – so he’s a good target for a cheap trade if you’re looking ahead to December already.)

Coaching

These coaches are part of a new breed in the NFL, proving it on consecutive drives in the first quarter. On fourth down at the Oakland 45, Todd Haley was in his “four-down mode” (he tells the team on first down that they’ll go for fourth-and-short) but the Chiefs were pushed back by a false start. Instead of taking his medicine and punting, Haley calls fake punt and switches to the wildcat formation. The play came up short, but just barely.

Coming back the other way, the Raiders came up empty on three downs. Fourth down arrives, and Tom Cable calls fake punt. Again, they came up short, but the exchange was telling. I think we’ll see more of this in the coming years. For fantasy owners, this might make offensive players on these teams more attractive. The math says this approach gives your team a higher chance of scoring, which is good news for their skill players.

More on the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs after the break….

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By Brian Spencer

Detroit Lions (2-5): In years past, a 2-5 mark in the standings next to the Lions likely meant two things: they were lucky to get those two wins, and they were probably on their way to 2-10. Not these Lions. The offense has suddenly become explosive, and is ranked first in the NFC at 26.1 points per. Perhaps more importantly, they’re fielding the NFL’s best defensive line–yep, I said it, the best–and superstar rookie DT Ndamukong Suh (27 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD!) is running away with Rookie of the Year and Pro Bowl honors.

This just might be the most exciting young team in the NFL. At 2-5, all indications are that the Lions are on their way up–nobody will be looking forward to playing them in the last half of the season.

Oh, shades of “the same old Lions” still haunt and threaten this team–the special teams coverage against the Redskins last week nearly killed them, and the inopportune fumbles are troubling–but unlike in years past, this group has proven they are not quitters and they are not going to be rolled over by just anybody. If there was any justice in the world they’d be posthumously awarded the win they deserved in Week 1 over the Bears, and at 3-5 actually be harboring realistic playoff hopes in the weak NFC; technically they are still in the hunt, you never know, but it’s unlikely. They still need another strong offseason, and history shows GM Martin Mayhew has it in him to make the right moves.

Don’t laugh, but this week’s home tilt against the New York Jets is the first legitimate measuring-stick game this franchise has been involved in for years. Vegas has only installed the visiting Super Bowl contender as 3.5-point favorites; could the Lions actually pull this one out? Yes, yes they can. They might not, but they can.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4): So remind me again what the plan is here this season? Next season? Five years from now? Are the Jags trying to build around Maurice Jones-Drew? Are they or are they not confident in David Garrard? What kind of team are they trying to build? Can anybody outside of Jacksonville name more than one player on that starting defense? Can anybody in Jacksonville name more than one? I didn’t think so.

In this parity-driven league, the bland, directionless Jaguars are .500 and still firmly in the playoff picture, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a worse, more discombobulated-looking team than this one is. Kudos for their 35-17 thrashing of the Dallas Cowboys, and a job well done to the much-maligned Garrard for absolutely lighting up that porous ‘Boys defense (17-21 for 260 yards, 5 total TDs), but on most weeks this team is just brutal to watch; their -61 point differential on the season is proof.

The second half of their schedule should bring the Jags back down to earth, and that’s the best thing that could actually happen for this franchise. Outside of MJD there really aren’t many building blocks here, and they desperately need to start accumulating some. Head coach Jack Del Rio needs a playoff berth to keep his job, but even that might not be enough. Two things I still can’t figure out: how they managed to beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, and why this franchise hasn’t been relocated yet.

Thoughts on the Bears, Cowboys, Chiefs, Saints, and Vikings after the break…

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By: Andrew Thell

- If you play in Yahoo! and you’re in need of a WR or flex play, you could do a lot worse than Danny Woodhead. He’s almost surely owned in your league, but after last week’s relatively quiet game you might still be able to get him at a discount. Woodhead looked very good in the Chargers game, shifty and quick, and it appears he’s going to be heavily involved in both the passing and running game going forward; he even got several carries between the tackles on Sunday. There aren’t many guys who will be getting 8+ carries a game that you can drop into a WR slot.

- Now is the time to invest in Atlanta Falcons skill players. Heading into their bye a lot of teams might be desperate to fill out their starting lineup, and after the bye Atlanta only faces one scary defense for the rest of the fantasy season (Baltimore in Week 10). Matt Ryan looks like he’s ready to be a reliable option from here on out and Tony Gonzalez is a definite buy-low. You’re not going to be able to get Roddy White on the cheap after that dominant performance, but for my money there’s not a WR in fantasy football I’d rather have right now. Matt Ryan is locked onto him every week.

- Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. His four TDs last week were named White Horse, Red Horse, Black Horse and Pale Horse.

- I’m buying Robert Meachem where I can. He might be the most talented receiver on that team, and he’s definitely their best vertical threat. The Saints offense is better when Meachem is on the field and active, stretching defenses out, and they’re starting acknowledge that in his usage. The matchup in Pittsburgh is rough this week, but the schedule clears up after that.

- It’s amazing how quickly the Kansas City Chiefs has been rebuilt through the draft. We’re seeing the Scott Pioli influence taking effect, and it’s impressive. They’re a solid team now, and just a QB away from really competing.

- As predicted in this space two weeks ago, Tom Brady has had a rough go of it sans Randy Moss. You really can’t overstate the impact he had on the Patriots’ passing game, taking the opposing team’s best corner and one safety out of the picture on every play even when he wasn’t catching passes. The last two weeks Brady has put up 5.9 yards-per-attempt (YPA) with 2 INTs and just 2 TDs despite 76 pass attempts. The year before Moss came to town Brady posted a modest 6.8 YPA, and the last two healthy seasons with Moss Brady had impressive 7.8 and 8.3 YPAs. Brady will still be useful though, he’s a solid QB on a passing team, and he may have even gone from a sell-high to a buy-low.

Wes Welker, on the other hand, I want nothing to do with. In three years playing with Moss Welker caught 112, 111 and 123 passes, but now he’s drawing opposing team’s top corners and has caught just 11 passes for 78 yards combined the last two weeks. Welker’s never been a big red-zone target (3 TDs last year, 4 the year before), so if he’s not catching a huge volume of passes he’s not doing much for your fantasy bottom line.

- The NFC is terrible. Just terrible. You could argue the top six teams in the NFL all reside in the AFC (Jets, Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, and Colts in no particular order). The only two teams in the NFC I would actually characterize as “good” right now are Giants and Falcons. No team in the NFC West deserves to be in the playoffs.

- If the NFL is going to try and showcase their product for an overseas audience, why can’t they give them a halfway decent game? I know nobody saw this San Fran implosion coming, but 49ers versus Broncos was never what you would call a marquee matchup.

- I never though I would say this, but it might be time to give Tarvaris Jackson another shot. As bad as he looked at times during his limited career as a starter, Brett Favre has been worse this season. The Vikings have too much talent to be 2-4 and on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats sums up just how bad No. 4 has been:

“This season is different. Injuries and distractions appear to have taken their toll. Through week 7, Favre ranks a very distant last in total WPA, with -1.89, nearly three times worse than the next worst passer. That’s -0.32 WPA per game. He’s behind Trent Edwards, Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen, Max Hall–everyone.

It’s not just bad timing or bad luck in high leverage situations, either. Over his six games, he’s responsible for -20 EPA, which is basically net point (dis)advantage. He’s 5th worst in Success Rate (SR) among qualified QBs, meaning he’s consistently bad, and not just a victim of a handful of high impact plays.”

By Brian Spencer

Progress, as it relates to the Detroit Lions, lies truly in the eye of the beholder.

At 1-5 heading into their Week 7 bye, the Lions are clearly no longer a laughable doormat. Casual observers perusing the standings are likely to think “same ol’ Lions”, but this team is no pushover. With a little luck, they could be anywhere from 3-2 to 4-1… again, depending on your point of view.

We all remember what happened in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, so theoretically, at worst, this team should be a semi-respectable 2-4, with 10 more chances to exceed last year’s final haul of 2-14. In Week 2, they lost a nail-biter at home to the Philadelphia Eagles, 35-32, were soundly beaten the next week in Minnesota, then squandered a chance to win in Green Bay for the first time in nearly two decades in dropping a very winnable game against a very beatable team, 28-26. That led to a 44-6 thrashing of the St. Louis Rams (the team’s biggest win since 1995), then, finally, to a heartbreaking 28-20 loss to the New York Giants in Week 6. At least they covered the 10 1/2 spread on Sunday; appreciate that, guys.

If you’re adding up the carnage at home, that’s 4 losses by a combined 18 points. In the feeble NFC North, if this team had simply been awarded the win they deserved against the Bears, then pulled it together long enough to steal one of those other winnable losses, they’d stand a hopeful 3-3 and be right in the thick of things. Specifically, they’d likely be tied for first place. All it would have taken was one less missed tackle there, not turning the ball over here, not getting flagged there. Considering this franchise is just one season removed from their historic 0-16 record, and came into the 2010 season sporting a 3-37 record over their last 40 games, these close calls have to be considered progress.

But let’s be honest: most teams in the NFL can point to one or two key moments in a game in which they came short as the difference between a win and a loss. That’s called parity, and the NFL has cornered the market on it; the cliche “on any given Sunday” truly defines this league. (See the moribund Arizona Cardinals, who at 3-2 in the NFC Joke West could actually be on their way to the playoffs.)

So welcome back to the NFL, Detroit Lions: you’re just like all the other lower-rung teams now. You’re good enough to be in most games, but still not good enough to win most games.

Woo hoo!

The Befuddling World of the Detroit Lions

My Lions have racked up all kinds of interesting, maddening stats on this noble march to the bye week:

- Last year only the Tampa Bay Bucs and St. Louis Rams scored less points than the Lions in the NFC; through five games this season, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only NFC team that’s put up more points.

- So far the Lions are one of 16 teams who’ve scored more points than they’ve given up: of those teams, the Lions and San Diego Chargers (2-4) are the only ones with losing records.

- Last year the St. Louis Rams were the only NFC team that had less interceptions and less sacks than the Detroit Lions defense; this year, so far the Lions have both the fourth-most sacks (one behind the Rams, ironically enough) and fourth-most interceptions.

- The Lions have been penalized more than any other team in the league (59).

- Lions starting left tackle Jeff Backus has only given up 3 sacks so far on the season, a respectable number given some of the names he’s been asked to block (Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Osi Umenyiora, etc). Those three sacks, however, have resulted in two quarterback fumbles/turnovers, and one strained right shoulder on a franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Stafford has not played since the second quarter in Week 1.

- Rookie running back Jahvid Best burst onto the NFL scene (and into fantasy football circles) in Week 2 with a scintillating performance against the Eagles, gaining 78 yards on the ground, 154 receiving yards, and scoring thrice. Lofty comparisons to former Lion greats like Barry Sanders and Billy Sims ensued; for all the hype, though, Best has yet to rush for more than those 78 yards in a single game, is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, and his Lions are the second-worst rushing team in the NFL.

And Yet…

In the absence of wins, however, there is something to be said for simply being competitive–just ask the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. There’s also something to be said for having a plan in place and young cornerstones to build around–just ask the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. The Lions are in a much better place than they have been in the last decade, and are getting closer, but we’re all going to have to endure a few more twists of the nuts before this team truly turns it around. Hey, they’ve already given you honolulu blue balls every year since 1957, what difference does another year make?

You love seeing rookie Ndamukong Suh dominate this early in his young career and look every bit like the best player in his draft class; the kid is a first-year Pro Bowler if he keeps this up. Remember that pseudo-debate leading up the draft about who was the better defensive tackle prospect, Suh or Gerald McCoy? If you do, forget it. It’s early, but I haven’t heard a peep about McCoy, taken third overall, down in Tampa Bay. Through five games, McCoy has 8 tackles compared to Suh’s 21 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 interception, and all kinds of pressure and hits on opposing quarterbacks.

Call him Beast Man.

You drool at Calvin Johnson’s casual, quiet, explosive start to the season, despite the modest stats (29 catches for 437 yards, 5 TDs). Make no mistake, Megatron has been stellar when he’s been targeted and is catching almost all of the catchable balls thrown his way; the problem is that he still isn’t seeing as many as he should be. It’ll be a thing of beauty when the offensive coaching staff realizes that he needs to run a fly route and get the target, poor coverage or not, when he’s gifted with single coverage. There’s a better-than-average chance he’s going to come up with it.

You see the potential for guys like Stafford and Best to be special players, and see the makings of a solid core on defense with playmakers like Louis Delmas and, lately, Alphonso Smith, a second-round pick in last year’s draft who was cast off by the Denver Broncos but has played his way into the starting lineup in Detroit. After seeing limited action the first few weeks, he’s already logged 16 tackles, 3 INTs, and 1 return TD capped off by the Carlton Banks. We still haven’t seen second-year starting middle linebacker DeAndre Levy in action yet, either, due to lingering injuries. He too is apparently somebody this team feels confident is somebody to build around.

Brandon Pettigrew (25 years old) and Tony Scheffler (27) are locked up for the foreseeable future as the team’s top tight ends, and so far this year have combined for 59 receptions, 553 yards, and 2 TDs. They comprise what so far is looking like the top tight-end combo in the NFL.

This is all well and good. The Lions are no longer more than likely to be down by 20+ points at the end of the first half, in every game, every week. They’re competitive, they’re making plays, they have core pieces of the puzzle in place, they probably wouldn’t be defeated by the top-10 college football teams.

Does that make the losing any more palatable? No, not really. But in my eyes, I see progress. And for now, I’ll just have to take it.

By: Andrew Thell

The first few weeks of the season trading is generally hard to come by. As owners we all drafted the guys we did for a reason, and with a small sample size we’re loath to abandon strategies and draft-day opinions. After a few weeks, though, we have more data to form opinions on and the confidences of our opponents begin to be shaken. Owners of underperforming picks start to re-think their stance and, after a few losses, panic can set in. Five weeks into the season the teams at the top of the standings are feeling pretty good about themselves, but everybody should be looking to mix things up. You can always improve their squad, grab undervalued commodities on the market and sell off players playing over their heads. You know the drill: buy low, sell high.

Below are some of the prime trade candidates to cash in on, early-season heroes who might have more market value than they should. We’ll check back in with some buy-low candidates shortly.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears: I know, you’re pumped that your fifth- or sixth-round pick is currently the seventh-ranked player in the Yahoo! game. But a quick look under the hood reveals some disconcerting facts. Nearly all of Forte’s production has come on big plays, and he’s really not the kind of player who can sustain that, especially in the running game. Prior to last week’s explosion Forte had yards-per-carry averages of 2.9, 2.9, 2.6 and 2.2 through the first four weeks after posting meager 3.6 and 3.9 marks the first two years of his career. That’s bad. Really bad. He did bust off a career-long 68 yard carry last week, but that’s not really his game. Even in his breakout rookie campaign Forte only had two carries over 30 yards.

Between the fluky big plays, the Forte we saw in Week 3 and Week 4 (76 total yards, combined) is closer to reality than the guy we saw last week. In fact, I think that Chester Taylor is the superior blocker and runner between the tackles on that team, and Mike Martz might realize that eventually. With fantasy playoff matchups at Minnesota and versus the Jets, his value may never be higher and you would do well to send Forte to a desperate team in win-now mode in exchange for a more established, consistent runner.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: The Patriots superstar quarterback is one of the biggest name brands in fantasy football, and you may be able to capitalize on that recognition factor. Make no mistake about it, the loss of Randy Moss is a serious blow to Brady’s fantasy prospects. It’s easy to forget, but before Moss came to town Brady was a solid fantasy QB, but not the kind of guy to carry teams. Before he dropped an otherworldy 50 TDs in Moss’ first year in New England 2007 Brady had managed just 24 and 26 TDs the previous two seasons. Good, but not great. In fact, that magical season is the only time in his 10-year career he’s topped 28 TDs. That isn’t to say Brady won’t be a solid fantasy performer from here on out, he’s still plenty useful, but he’s probably not as good as people think. See if you can sell somebody on the Patriots new weapons Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Tate and the fact that their mediocre defense will force the Pats to throw and get a marquee price for the marquee name.

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers: Like Brady, I fully expect Gates to be a very useful fantasy player from here on out. With Jermichael Finley out of the picture there’s a very good chance Gates will finish the season as the league’s top fantasy (and real-life) tight end. But he’s not this good. The former Kent State power forward hasn’t reached double-digit TDs since 2005 and has only topped 1,000 receiving yards twice in his career but is currently on pace for 93 receptions, 1,530 yards and 22-23 TDs. That’s simply unsustainable, especially in light of recent news. Reports indicate Vincent Jackson will report to the Chargers later this month and be ready to suit up in time for the fantasy playoffs, and that’s a major concern. Upon his return Jackson will eat into Gates’ targets, yards and TDs just like he did the last two seasons. Don’t sell Gates for anything less than a fantasy star, but if somebody is willing to give you first- or second-round value, pounce on it.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: If you own TO, no doubt you’re pleased as a pig in shit about his 17 receptions, 324 yards and 2 TDs the last two weeks. I would be too, but I wouldn’t start drinking the Kool Aid just yet. The rookie owner clings to that success and rides it till the well runs dry, but the savvy owner strikes while the iron is hot. Owens is on pace to lead the league in targets by a wide margin and set a career-high in receiving yards. With his advanced age and how bad Carson Palmer (below) has looked, the odds of either those high-water marks being attained are very slim. Owens is a classic sell high.

By: Andrew Thell

- This is the best I’ve seen Adrian Peterson look in two years. There was talk about AP working hard this offseason on two things: ball control and patience. It’s looking like that work is paying serious dividends. AP led the NFL in fumbles over the last three years, and down the stretch last season he struggled to find running room to showcase his trademark speed, power and moves. With season totals of 18 TDs and over 1,800 total yards, it’s easy to forget that he looked downright bad down the stretch in 2009. He was dancing behind the line, getting tackled for losses with regularity, being forced outside far too often and not hitting the seams he usually turns into big gains. Between Week 7 and the NFC Divisional playoff game, a span of 11 games, Peterson topped 100 yards rushing just once and sported a yards-per-carry average over 4.0 in just two contests (at home versus the Lions in Week 10 and with just 9 carries in a Week 17 laugher versus the Giants).

It wasn’t all his fault though. The offensive line was perhaps the best in football three years ago, but in 2009 featured a new, inexperienced and very undersized center in John Sullivan who was often abused by opposing DTs. In fact, the whole line looked a year older and a step slower last season, which was a big part of the reason Brett Favre had to go into gunslinger mode. This year, behind the same line which still doesn’t look especially strong, he’s rocking a 5.6 YPC, which is tied with his rookie season as the best mark of his career, and is churning out 130.7 yards per game, easily the best mark of his career.

Peterson has looked good doing it, too. He’s following his blockers, taking what the defense gives him, making excellent cuts and reads, letting the play develop before him, and then decisively hitting the smallest of creases and seams with authority. And, knock on wood, he hasn’t put the ball on the ground yet. Minnesota will need to lean on him as much as ever this season, especially in the passing game, and the way he’s responding nobody is looking foolish for using the top-overall pick on All Day.

- Sometimes teams have to lower their expectations. Not everybody can have the prototypical franchise running back, there aren’t enough APs to go around, and for some NFL and fantasy teams a guy who can turn in a workman-like effort has to be enough. When that’s the case, a big bruiser who isn’t a home-run threat can get the job done. In Cleveland, Eric Mangini has found that guy in Peyton Hillis, who isn’t going to break any game-changing runs but also isn’t going to hurt his team. Cleveland just needs a guy who can take what the defense gives and churn out modest production with consistency. Hillis can do that. He can also handle goal-line work, blocks well and is a surprisingly good receiver out of the backfield. He’s not a great back, but right now in Cleveland he’s good enough.

Hillis is likely long gone in your league, but his example might be one fantasy owners and NFL coaches can learn from. It’s looking very possible Tampa Bay, Green Bay and New England could follow suit with 250-pound LeGarrette Blount, 250-pound John Kuhn and BenJarvin Green-Ellis, who is only 215 pounds but chugs along like a much bigger back. All three of these teams struggle mightily in the run game and lack anybody who could emerge as an elite option on their roster, but could soon just settle for a big guy who’s good enough. None of these guys have the athleticism or skill set that gets fantasy owners excited, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be useful flex plays on a regular basis.

More observations from the first three weeks after the jump …

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By Brian Spencer

There’s nothing worse than pointless fantasy points.

You see them every week, with maddening consistency: a backup fullback plunges into the endzone from the one-yard line after a stud wide receiver was stopped just short of the goal line following his spectacular 50-yard gain. A third-string tight end hauls in a wide-open touchdown catch after a play-action pass from the three-yard line. Or, even worse, some guy you dumped on waivers after he ran for 25 yards on 20 carries over a three-week period explodes for 150 yards and a handful of scores.

Nobody owns these guys, nobody ever even considered adding these guys, and somebody usually wastes a waiver claim on these guys Monday morning, before realizing a few weeks later that lightening isn’t going to strike again, at least not until after you drop him. Those pointless touchdowns and those useless yards might help their real team win the game, but we all know that the majority of people watching football every Sunday mostly care about just two things: their picks covering the spread, and their fantasy players producing. Real-life wins and losses are but a frivolous subplot.

Consider last week’s matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos (in which Indy easily covered), which was mostly a wash for fantasy regulars except Peyton Manning and Austin Collie, with Kyle Orton not being considered a regular at that point:

- Colts running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combined for 41 yards on 20 carries and 10 yards receiving on 2 catches, with no touchdowns; their Denver counterparts, Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter, weren’t much better in totaling 36 yards on 16 carries and 73 yards receiving on 8 catches. With the exception of Brown, all three guys were considered solid starts (though Buckhalter was only a nominally better play than Brown), but none of them did their owners any favors.

- Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne, a borderline first-round fantasy pick, and tight end Dallas Clark, with his Yahoo! ADP of 35.5, caught 9 passes for 109 yards and 0 TDs between them. Meanwhile, Collie, who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues, enjoyed the best game of his young career in going bonkers to the tune of 12 catches for 171 yards and 2 TDs. Blair White, an undrafted rookie out of Michigan State signed from the practice squad that weekend to fill in for an injured Pierre Garcon, was the second-most fantasy productive player in the Colts’ passing attack, catching 3 passes for 27 yards and 1 TD.

- In Week 2, Broncos rookie WR Demaryius Thomas, a first-round pick, had a rousing NFL debut against the Seattle Seahawks, catching 8 passes for 97 yards and a score, and looking really good doing it. He was added in most leagues immediately and slotted into a lot of fantasy starting lineups against the Colts’ middling secondary. After two strong showings, Thomas’ running mate at receiver, Eddie Royal, had also emerged as a reliable target of Kyle Orton, and he too was probably started as a WR3 or flex option.

How’d they do on a day where Orton threw for a career-high of 476 yards? Thomas caught 2 passes for 43 yards, while Royal caught 4 for 23 yards. Instead, it was journeyman Brandon Lloyd popping off for 6 catches, 169 yards, and 1 TD, and veteran Jabar Gaffney doing his best, well, Austin Collie imitation in catching 12 passes for 140 yards. Lloyd is having a fantastic season so far (which is insane), and Gaffney was considered a decent sleeper, but c’mon…

- Speaking of Orton’s 476 yards passing, when was the last time a quarterback piled on that kind of yardage and only threw 1 touchdown pass? How many people were bold enough to start Orton?

Nothing wrecks best-laid fantasy football plans quite like NFL football.