Empty the Bench

By Brian Spencer

Gotta love those Redskins.

Just when it looked like it was “out with the old and in with the new” in Washington, owner Daniel Snyder does it again by signing former All-Pro running back Larry Johnson to a 3-year deal that could pay him as much as $12 million.

We’re assuming GM Bruce Allen isn’t a total dolt and has made these incentives relatively unreachable for a broken-down back of Johnson’s caliber: things like playing in more than 8 games, rushing for more than 3.5 yards per carry, totaling more than 500 yards combined, not claiming he deserves 25+ carries a game, not publicly clashing with the similarly broken-down Clinton Portis. All would be goals reasonable men know LJ will not realistically attain.

Forget that the Redskins haven’t won their division since 1999. And that they’ve won just one playoff game since 1999. And that they were lucky to scratch out a 4-12 record last season. And that they have fielded one of the most boring, inefficient offenses in the NFL for years, and that few outside of Washington find them even remotely watchable. Forget all that, Snyder is not going out like a chump. He spends money, damn it, that’s what he does, and he’s not going to change just because there’s a new GM and a new head coach on the team. He’s no fool, that Snyder: c’mon, you all know how awesome Johnson is on Madden ‘05.

The Mike Shanahan and Daniel Snyder marriage is perfect in that it brings together two stubborn men who are going to prove their point, that they’re right and you’re wrong, at all costs. Snyder cares not and hears not the criticism of his careless, free-spending ways on free agents every offseason; Shanahan, for his part, will not be told he can’t just turn anybody into an effective, efficient, successful running back. His track record is remarkable, give him that, but this move is one of his most arrogant yet.

It wasn’t enough to think he could resuscitate Portis, who over eight NFL seasons has carried the ball something like 8,000 times and missed half of the 2009 season due to a lingering concussion. To be fair, he’s only one season removed from playing in all 16 games and rushing for nearly 1,500 yards and 9 TDs, but as we’ve seen with guys like Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson, the dropoff in production for aging running backs is often a preciptious one. It happens fast, and there’s usually little left of value in terms of on-field usefulness. Harsh, yes, but that’s just how it is.

Speaking of Holmes, Johnson recently said he envisions the ‘Skins backfield combo of him and Portis working like it once did with him and Holmes in Kansas City. Hm, no, Larry, can’t see that happening. Now 30 years old, Johnson last rushed for 1,000+ yards in 2006, when he carried the ball 416 times (!) for 1,789 yards, totaled 2,200 combined yards, and scored 19 TDs. The next year he played in just eight games, rushing for 559 yards and scoring 4 TDs. He was eventually fazed out in KC, averaging a paltry 2.9 YPC last season before being released and finishing out the season as a backup for the Cincinnati Bengals.

This is quite a reclamation project for Shanahan, the debilitated duo of Portis & Johnson; let’s not forget the ‘Skins don’t really have a quarterback, either, though I assume they’ll be drafting one. Yep, it’s going to be another thrilling year of offensive fireworks in Washington.

Can’t wait!

Larry Johnson Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Julius Peppers photo credit: Icon SMI

By Andrew Thell

2010 is not the free agency bonanza we sometimes see, even though we are entering the uncapped season, but there are some serious playmakers who have already signed with new teams and who still linger in unrestricted free agency. In a class short on star power, Julius Peppers appears to be the only franchise-changing player to hit the market, and he was quickly taken off the board by a team few people were excited about the prospects of after last season – but perhaps should be now.

Below you’ll find a list of the nine players who have signed with news teams in rough order of the impact I expect them to make followed by a list of seven of the finest free agents still on the market – as of this writing, at least, things change fast in early free agency.

You’ll notice five prominent omissions on the Best of the Rest section: LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Thomas Jones. We all know what that quintet has in common. They’re former stars at the running back position who are over the age of 30, have been run into the ground or both. The position is not one of longevity in today’s NFL, and yesterday’s superstar back is on today’s scrap heap in shockingly short order. That’s the way of the league, and there’s nary a player at the position who can buck the trend – except one man, who made my first list …

The Most Significant Free Agents Signings Thus Far

Julius Peppers, DE, Chicago Bears: Peppers is an elite talent, there’s no question about that. In a pass-happy league where every team is desperate for more pressure Peppers is the type of player who can dominate a game from the defensive end position, manhandling any left tackle in the league when he’s on. When the Panthers pulled off a shocking win against the Minnesota Vikings back in December it was partly some strong play by QB Matt Moore and RB Jonathan Stewart, but it was much more Peppers embarrassing Bryant McKinnie every down and making Brad Childress look foolish for refusing to give his struggling LT help. He was that good. There are some concerns about Peppers mentally, if he loves the game and if he’s committed to getting the most out of his talent (especially with that fat contract in place). Making a guy with those issues the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL could come back to haunt them, but on paper he’s going to go a long way toward making that Bears defense scary again.

Karlos Dansby, LB, Miami Dolphins: Dansby is a plus player. He can rush the QB, is decent in run support and drops back into coverage well. He’ll make big, timely plays. Miami’s big acquisition isn’t in the same class as Peppers, and $8 million per season with $22 million in guaranteed was probably more than anybody else was willing to pay, but Dansby will certainly upgrade the Dolphins linebacking corps.

Antrel Rolle, S, New York Giants: Rolle couldn’t cut it as a cornerback, but the exceptional athlete has morphed into an above-average safety since making the position switch. The $37 million contract, with $15 million guaranteed, is a bit rich but the Giants simply couldn’t head into next season without upgrading their dismal safety play. Rolle doesn’t have great instincts, which killed him as a corner, but he can make up for it with great range and a knack for making plays at safety. If SS Kenny Phillips can return to form one of the Giants major weaknesses from 2009 could be a strength in 2010.

Dunta Robinson, CB, Atlanta Falcons: Dunta Robinson is a solid playmaker with the tools to be a strong cover corner, but he’s a tad overrated and you get the feeling that the Falcons overpaid for a brand name here. $25.5 million guaranteed is a bit steep for such an inconsistent player coming off a disappointing season, but such is the market for corners and at 27 Robinson could still blossom into a Pro Bowl level talent.

Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears: He’s 30 years old, but Taylor has only topped 300 carries once in his career and never gone over 160 in any other season. A consummate professional, Chester is a strong blocker, catches the ball well out of the backfield, runs hard and can play on any down – excelling in a third-down capacity when called upon.

After the pedestrian effort we saw out of Matt Forte last season it’s not out of line to suggest Taylor is the most complete, valuable back on the Bears roster heading into next season. Taylor excelled as a starter for Minnesota before the drafting of Adrian Peterson and is one of the most underrated backs in the NFL with plenty left in his tank despite the advanced age.

Chester Taylor Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Aaron Kampman, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off a torn ACL and a season in which he looked completely out of place playing linebacker in a 3-4, teams looking to upgrade their pass rush in a 4-3 defense at a slight discount were targeting Kampman. However, at 30 years old and unlikely to be at full strength for the start of the season the Jags are a curious destination. Still, he’s a quality pass rusher who can bring the heat and the contract is less than a third of what Peppers went for in total.

Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE, Detroit Lions: Vanden Bosch is a productive, high-motor player that should be a nice move toward revamping the toothless Lions defensive line. At 31 years of age the four-year, $26 million deal seems a bit steep but I think he’s got plenty left in the tank. Lions coach Jim Schwartz previously served as the Titans defensive coordinator and he knows what Vanden Bosch will bring to his team – on the field, in the locker room, in the weight room and in the meeting room – and playing alongside newly acquired DT Corey Williams, who will return to his natural position in a 4-3, the Lions line should be improved.

Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions: Even with uber talent Calvin Johnson on board, this was a far bigger area of need for Detroit than many realize. Burleson has had an inconsistent career, but he has all the tools to be the No. 2 receiver Detroit so desperately needs opposite franchise cornerstone Megatron. Burleson has a bit of an injury history, but he also possesses good hands, decent speed, can gain yards after the catch and is capable of making plays in the air. He’ll be the best receiver to line up opposite Johnson in his short career and, along with second-year TE Brandon Pettigrew, should give young QB Matthew Stafford a nice safety blanket and secondary playmaker to take the constant pressure off of Johnson.

Tony Pashos, T, Cleveland Browns: The Browns got a slight discount after Pashos’ injury-marred season in 2009. He’s shown an ability to stay healthy in the previous eight years of his career and Pashos is capable of thriving in a power running attack like the one we expect Mike Holmgren to install in Cleveland. He’s not quite of the Bobbie Williams or Stephen Neal caliber, but Pashos was one of the finest guards on the market.

After the jump, the best players left on the UFA market …

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By Andrew Thell

Unless you play playoffs fantasy football, and I strongly suggest that you do, the dust has settled on another season of our imaginary NFL leagues. Experiences will obviously vary based on success and wagers recouped, but I think it was one of the finest campaigns in recent memory. Everybody has a sob story (or two, in my case), but the fantasy gods were surprisingly even-handed this season. For the most part smart, diligent owners who weren’t afraid to take risks were rewarded. That’s exactly how we want it to go.

Regardless of how the fates treated you, there was much to be learned from the season. It’s easy to simply dust your hands and walk off into a sunset of fantasy hoops, and I intend to do just that, but first I want to take a few minutes and see if we can’t glean some lessons from the imaginary season that was. Hopefully it’ll provide some insight now, and feel free to bookmark and come back as your 2010 draft approaches for a refresher. The easiest way to tackle it is probably the same way you’ll approach filling out your rosters on draft day next summer: position by position.

Quarterback

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had fantastic seasons, that much is undeniable. Tom Brady was no slouch either, though he didn’t quite meet draft-day expectations. The owners who drafted that trio with their first- or second-round pick may not have experienced the same success. That’s because savvy owners who waited and took Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger got nearly identical or even better production at a fraction of the cost – and were in turn able to pair that production with a Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson.

There’s a flip side, of course. Those who waited and went into the season counting on a Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, or Matt Ryan were left high and dry. Depending on where they were taken, those were all solid picks on draft day given the information we had to work with. They just didn’t pan out. It happens. The lesson? Don’t draft a big name in the first round, but also be sure to draft more than one solid option. You can afford to wait on your starting QB for a few rounds, but be sure you don’t wait too many for a backup that you’d be comfortable starting. There’s a good chance you’ll be doing just that more than once.

Running Back

Year after year rookie running backs remain some of the biggest draft-day bargains. And they are a tremendous source of value most seasons, but we need to recognize these guys as what they are: unknown commodities. Lottery tickets. They could blow up just as easily as fizzle out. This year I was scrambling in every draft to get Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy and Shonn Greene so I could install them as my RB3 or even RB2 in some cases. That didn’t work out so hot.

Stocking up on lottery tickets is great, but just remember to treat them as such. Don’t spend the dog food money on ‘em. Put yourself in a position to take advantage of a breakout season or merely unexpected depth, not one one where you’re crippled if they don’t pan out.

The three biggest surprises with the most fantasy impact this season were Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice. We at ETB were bullish on Johnson and Ray last summer, but I certainly didn’t see Rice finishing fourth among all RBs or CJ’s history-making season coming. And Nobody saw Charles’s breakout coming. Nobody. One thing I will say is: go out of your way to target RBs who can not only rush the football but also be extremely effective in the passing game, and not just in PPR leagues. They will stay on the field and get touches, and opportunity is everything in fantasy football. Even if their team is down by 20 points in the first quarter they can still have a huge fantasy game. Even if their team’s offensive line and defense completely fall apart, they can maintain big season-long value. Other than that – draft incredibly athletic, lightning quick guys who will run between the tackles better than anybody could have possibly imagined. Works every time.

2009 fantasy football lessons from the WRs, TEs, DEFs and Ks after the jump …

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Ranks Preview by Brian Spencer

“Are you gonna wait for your sign, your miracle?
Stand up and fight, this is it!
Make no mistake where you are, this is it!
Your back’s to the corner, this is it!
Don’t be a fool anymore, this is it!
The waiting is over…”
- Kenny Loggins, This Is It

Finally, a totally legit excuse to work Loggins lyrics in…

This is indeed it, folks: championship week in most fantasy football circles. If you’re still reading, a tip of our big ol’ cowboy hat to your worthy efforts and the best of luck this weekend. This also marks the last week of ETB’s annual fantasy football coverage, and basically closes the chapter on this NFL season as far as our purposes go. As most of our loyal readers know, basketball is our main squeeze and the time has come for us to exclusively get back on that wagon after a mini-holiday break here. (To that end, stay tuned next week for a special report and player interviews from Detroit Pistons practice.)

So, how did my fantasy football teams fare this season? Could have been better, could have been worse. I made the semifinals in both leagues, but unfortunately lost both matches last week and play for 3rd place this weekend. In the ETB-sponsored league, I plugged in Michael “F’ing” Turner at the last minute after reports that he was “thumbs up” and good to go, then of course saw him carry the ball one time for 7 yards, then call it a day. That hurt. I then watched my Team DEF, the Green Bay Packers, get smoked in Pittsburgh for 38 points and Jerome Harrison, whom I briefly had in my flex spot before benching him in favor of Darren Sproles, blow up for something like 853 yards and 10 TDs. It just wasn’t meant to be, but I’ll take some solace in knocking my ETB colleague Mr. Thell down to 4th place this weekend in our consolation matchup.

The other league’s result was a bit lopsided, with Chris Johnson losing a fumble and failing to score, my underwhelming cadre of WRs combining to post next-to-nothing numbers, and my opponent benefiting from big days by Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, Greg Jennings, etc. Blah blah blah–everybody not playing for a title this week has a sob story to tell, so I digress.

Player ranks are broken down into just two posts this week: QBs, TEs, and DEFs below, with WRs and RBs here. Thanks for checking in with us during the fantasy season; it’s been fun, and we hope we were able to help lead you to the promised land. We’ll be back next season to do it all over again, but until then, it’s NBA all day, every day.

See Also:
- Week 16 RB and WR Ranks

Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. TB
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. SEA
3. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans @ MIA
4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers @ TEN
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. JAX
6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts vs. NYJ
7. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals vs. STL
8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys @ WSH
9. Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. CAR
10. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings @ CHI
11. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals vs. KC
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. BAL
13. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles vs. DEN
14. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers vs. DET
15. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans vs. SD
16. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins vs. HOU
17. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears vs. MIN
18. Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins vs. DAL
19. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos @ PHI
20. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens @ PIT
21. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. BUF

TE and DEF ranks after the break…

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Ranks Preview by Andrew Thell

If you’re still reading these rankings fantasy football is treating you pretty well this season. Then again, you could be like me – on the outs in all your money leagues and just playing for pride (gotta maintain that Yahoo! overall performance). After getting knocked off with a cruel Yahoo! stat correction on the Tuesday after the regular season’s close in one, I was ousted from the postseason in my other money league this week after Brett Favre and the Vikings offense inexplicably decided to lay down for the Carolina Panthers and Julius Peppers.

Oh, fantasy football couldn’t be kind enough to put me out of my misery on Sunday night though, it had to prolong the agony all through the Monday night affair as Steve Smith briefly got my hopes up with a first-half touchdown. Fantasy football knows how to build you up just enough to bring you down, and Smith ultimately fell just 15 yards, or 1.3 points, shy of propelling me into my league’s Super Bowl – and, more importantly, into the money. She’s a cruel mistress, she is.

Alas, you’re still alive, and that’s what’s important here. So on to the ranks. It’s the holidays, I’m with family eating and drinking well, I don’t have a fancy intro breaking down individual players for you this week. Hopefully you don’t need it if you’ve made it this far. Best of luck to all of you still in it, and a happy holidays to our ETB readers.

See also:

- Week 16 QB, TE and DEF Rankings

Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans @ MIA
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals vs. STL
3. Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. JAC
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. JAC
5. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers @ TEN
6. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals vs. STL
7. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints vs. TB
8. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals vs. KC
9. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles vs. DEN
10. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos @ PHI
11. Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys @ WAS
12. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs BUF
13. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. BAL
14. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings @ CHI
15. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers vs. SEA
16. Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars @ NE

RB rankings and WR ranks 17 through 42, after the jump…

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Ranks Preview by Andrew Thell

He was your first-round pick, but it still took some balls to start Frank Gore on Monday Night. Then again, if you took Frank Gore with your first-round pick there was a good chance you weren’t in contention last week. Coming into the game Gore had single-digit carries in two of the last three games, including 9 carries and 2 receptions for just 30 total yards at Seattle in Week 13 – the team he tore up for 246 total yards and 2 TDs in Week 2.

So yeah, the 25 carries for 167 yards and a TD against Arizona were a surprise. Keep in mind, though, that was largely the result of playing with the lead all game after Arizona stubbornly refused to maintain possession of the football in the first half, and that Gore’s opponent this week, the Eagles, boast a stout rush defense. That said, they’ll be throwing the book at Alex Smith and the 49ers would be wise to keep the ball on the ground again. Gore is a strong RB2 option.

So much for Larry Johnson eating into Cedric Benson’s carries. Since Benson’s return from a hip injury he’s been thrust back into the dangerously overused lead-back role with 52 (!) carries for 206 yards over the last two weeks. In those games LJ has tallied 5 carries… for 8 yards. As I’ve mentioned before, it seems like the best way to attack the San Diego defense is with a power running game and underneath passing game. Their rush defense isn’t anything special, and I expect the Bengals to ride Benson once again.

You never expect strong options to keep emerging on the wire this late in the season, but every year they do. It’s the nature of football. This week Houston’s Arian Foster is the latest waiver-wire pickup you can plug directly into your lineup and feel pretty good about it. Injuries killed his draft stock, but Foster has talent. He fits perfectly into the Houston system with great hands, good size, and decisive cutting. From what I’ve heard he’s been a Gary Kubiak favorite since training camp and the Texans are going to feed the kid and see what they have. Playing a horseshit St. Louis Rams rush defense (147.2 YPG, 19 TDs allowed – 2nd in the NFL), Foster has fantasy football hero written all over him.

Pittsburgh faces a tough, complete Packers defense that is on a serious roll right now. That’s the bad news for Rashard Mendenhall; the good is that he’ll be given the Steelers’ third-down opportunities this week and he could be featured heavily in a grind-it-out game where the weather could be a factor.

Things are set up nicely for Laurence Maroney owners: the guy got 22 carries last week, he’s scored 8 TDs in the last 8 weeks, and he draws the NFL’s worst rushing defense in Buffalo this week. You have to like those odds. The odds also favor rookie Knowshon Moreno, who gets a fantastic matchup in Oakland this week and should dominate the carries with Correll Buckhalter expected to miss the game.

We don’t expect Brian Westbrook to play, and thus we haven’t ranked him. We also don’t expect you to be starting an Eagles running back if you’ve made it this far.

I love Beanie Wells’ downhill running style, and I expect it to be a very long hill this week in Detroit. Humble projection: 17 carries for 85 yards and 2 TDs.

See also:
- Week 15 QB Ranks
- Week 15 WR Ranks
- Week 15 TE Ranks
- Week 15 DEF Ranks

Frank Gore Photo Credit: Icon SMI

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. MIA
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings @ CAR
3. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens vs. CHI
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. IND
5. Thomas Jones, New York Jets vs. ATL
6. Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins @ TEN
7. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs vs. CLE
8. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals @ SD
9. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers vs. MIN
10. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts @ JAC
11. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB
12. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos vs. OAK
13. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers @ PHI
14. Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots @ BUF
15. Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals @ DET
16. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams vs. HOU

Running back rankings 16 through 37, after the jump…

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Ranks Preview by Brian Spencer

If you own Kurt Warner, you have to start Kurt Warner. The Cards’ favorable fantasy playoff schedule is part of the reason you drafted him. But I guarantee that 90% of his owners are anything but ecstatic about putting him in the lineup after that steaming pile of shit he dropped on Candlestick Park Monday night in his team’s embarassing 24-9 loss to the 49ers. You’re lucky if you survived in spite of what was probably his worst performance of the season, given the timing.

The raw stats were bad. Real bad: 16-29 for 178 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 fumble lost, and 4 sacks taken. In ETB’s scoring format, that shook out to -1.37 fantasy points. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story here: the man looked distant, sullen, and simply grateful to be trotting over to the sideline in one piece. Warner has never been one of the league’s more emotional guys, but his body language was all wrong all game long and couldn’t have been inspiring confidence in his teammates during their comeback attempts (feeble though they were).

We understand that concussions are serious business, and so, finally, does the NFL. That’s fine. But if all those hits he’s taken over the years have permanently gotten into his head, then he needs to step aside and let Matt Leinart take his place. It’s only one game, and just 2 weeks ago he was brilliant in picking apart the Minnesota Vikings, but there was something definitely off about his demeanor on Monday. The football gods are smiling on him and the Cardinals pass attack this week in gifting them a dream matchup against the Detroit Lions and their league-worst pass defense, but still, it makes you wonder if this is the beginning of the end to Warner’s illustrious career.

See also:
See also:
- Week 15 RB Ranks
- Week 15 WR Ranks
- Week 15 TE Ranks
- Week 15 DEF Ranks

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. DAL
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts @ JAX
3. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans @ STL
4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers @ PIT
5. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals @ DET
6. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF
7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. CIN
8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys @ NO
9. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings @ CAR
10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots @ BUF
11. Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins vs. NYG
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB
13. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans vs. MIA (Check Status)
14. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens vs. CHI
15. Eli Manning, New York Giants @ WSH
16. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers @ PHI
17. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins @ TEN
18. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos vs. OAK
19. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears @ BAL
20. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals @ SD
21. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs vs. CLE

Kurt Warner Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Ranks Preview by Andrew Thell

As a Chad Ochocinco owner you never like to hear this kind of quote from Carson Palmer: “We’re a team that throws the ball about 20 times and runs it about 30. That’s who we are, and that’s who we’re going to continue to be.” Ugh. Very few of us can afford to bench Chad regardless, but I’m not expecting huge things against a San Diego secondary that’s looked quite good.

I don’t know what to make of the whole Randy Moss mess, other than we all know this is a guy who takes off plays (and games … and seasons, in the case of 06-07). I’m not shocked or aghast. That’s who he is. We knew that. He’s still the best wide receiver of the decade, and I think he’ll get his head screwed back on. That said, with just 6 receptions over the last three weeks and playing in Buffalo against their elite secondary (189.2 YPC, 10 TDs allowed, 25 INTs), Rando is hardly an elite play.

Back in Week 8 I predicted that would be the week Hakeem Nicks overtook Mario Manningham and his irksome tendency to drop big passes for good. It appears I was a bit premature, but better late than never. Hakeem Nicks got his fist start of the season on Sunday night and made plays, converting 7 targets into 4 receptions, 110 yards and a TD. It could have been a bigger game if not for a few costly drops, but Nicks played well and should be a fine play in Washington.

Speaking of drops, Dwyane Bowe returns from his four-game suspension this week just in time to take on the Cleveland Browns’ fantasy-friendly secondary. There was some concern over whether Bowe would regain his starting job, but apparently he kept himself in great shape and resumed his first-team reps right off the bat. If he’s available in your league, and he shouldn’t be, scoop Bowe up and pencil him into your WR3 slot. There’s every reason to believe he’ll get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Last week I closed out the wide receiver ranks with this throwaway line (you were going to start him either way): “Just a hunch, but I think Andre Johnson pushes around Seattle’s smallish secondary this week: 9 receptions, 146 yards, 2 TDs.” I thought it was an aggressive projection, but appears I was a bit conservative: Johnson had surpassed those totals by halftime and finished with 11 for 193 and 2 scores. You heard it here first: Andre Johnson is a fine start in Week 15 at St. Louis.

Weekly Darrelle Revis alert: downgrade Roddy White. Significantly. Christ, that Revis kid is really, really good.

See also:
- Week 15 QB Ranks
- Week 15 RB Ranks
- Week 15 TE Ranks
- Week 15 DEF Ranks

1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans @ STL
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals @ DET (Check Status)
3. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts @ JAC
4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals @ DET
5. Wes Welker, New England Patriots @ BUF
6. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos vs. OAK
7. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints vs. DAL
8. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF
9. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings @ CAR
10. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. CIN
11. Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys @ NO
12. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. ARZ
13. Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens vs. CHI
14. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers @ PIT
15. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers @ PIT
16. Randy Moss, New England Patriots @ BUF

WR rankings 17 through 46, after the jump…

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Ranks Preview by Brian Spencer

As we said two weeks ago, we don’t advocate or recommend that you get cute this time of the year. You don’t bench the studs who got you this far just because they had an off week last week, but sometimes due to injury you simply can’t avoid scouring the waiver wire during the fantasy playoffs in search of a viable plug-in play/savior. To that end, the Houston Texans DEF is likely available and could be the gem defense-needy owners are looking for.

The St. Louis Rams are a wreck. They’re battered, bruised, and depleted, and at 1-12 are better off losing the rest of their games and securing the top pick in the 2010 draft than they are winning. The offense has failed to score more than 9 points for two straight weeks, with their only touchdown in this span coming on a meaningless 11-yard strike from “Keith Null” (quotes because we’re not sure this guy really exists) to Randy McMichael in their 47-7 loss to the Titans last Sunday. They’ve coughed up 6 INTs, 4 sacks, and 1 fumble, and with Kyle Boller still battling an illness it looks like “Null” will get the nod again against the visiting Texans.

This defense isn’t spectacular: they’re squarely in the middle of the league pack in points allowed (21 per) and yards allowed (329), and towards the bottom in interceptions (11) and sacks (22). Obviously, you’re getting cute if you start them, but if you’re a believer in playing matchups, this one might be worth a roll of the dice, especially since their only real offensive weapon, RB Steven Jackson, is wearing down physically and mentally.

Meanwhile, the Texans are under the gun to win out and keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Last week they ransacked the Seattle Seahawks offense, holding them to 7 points while sacking Matt Hasselbeck thrice and picking him off once. You probably have better options, but it’s something to think about.

See also:
- Week 15 QB Ranks
- Week 15 RB Ranks
- Week 15 WR Ranks
- Week 15 TE Ranks

1. Denver Broncos vs. OAK
2. Minnesota Vikings @ CAR
3. Arizona Cardinals @ DET
4. New York Jets vs. ATL
5. Green Bay Packers @ PIT
6. Baltimore Ravens vs. CHI
7. Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF
8. New Orleans Saints vs. DAL
9. Houston Texans @ STL
10. Indianapolis Colts @ JAX
11. Washington Redskins vs. NYG
12. Seattle Seahawks vs. TB
13. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB
14. New England Patriots @ BUF
15. San Diego Chargers vs. CIN
16. San Francisco 49ers @ PHI
17. Cincinnati Bengals @ SD
18. Tennessee Titans vs. MIA

Mario Williams Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Ranks Preview by Andrew Thell

It’s been the Year of the Tight End in 2009. I can’t remember a time when fantasy owners had this many options, with seemingly more strong plays emerging by the week. Last week we talked about Fred Davis, who kept it going with 2 TDs and 50 yards in Oakland. He’s a big part of the improved passing game in Washington, and you shouldn’t hesitate to use him at home against the Giants this week unless you have another very strong option.

In the last month Jermichael Finley, who showed promise but dealt with myriad injuries for most of the season, has really stepped up his game. In the last four contests, all Packers wins, he’s put up 228 yards and 2 TDs on 24 receptions. He’s a big, athletic target that can make plays down the field and gain yardage after the catch. Aaron Rodgers is clearly comfortable going to him, and you should be too in a matchup at Polamalu-less Pittsburgh.

It seems absurd to have a TE with 9 TDs on the season ranked down at No. 10, but it just goes to show you how deep the field is this year – and how hit-or-miss Visanthe Shiancoe has been. Along with those scores have come 11 weeks with 4 receptions or less and just one week with more than 5. The Vikings simply have too many options to go to and the Carolina pass defense has been excellent this season (192 YPG, 13 TDs allowed, 19 INTs).

Bo Scaife has had 34 targets over the last 5 games, which is a big number for a TE. He’s not an exciting play, but is an option at home against beatable Miami linebackers and safeties… especially if Vince Young starts, as expected.

See also:
- Week 15 QB Ranks
- Week 15 RB Ranks
- Week 15 WR Ranks
- Week 15 DEF Ranks

1. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts @ JAX
2. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers @ PHI
3. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF
4. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers vs. CIN
5. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys @ NO
6. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers @ PIT
7. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons @ NYJ
8. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins vs. NYG
9. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Bucs @ SEA
10. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings @ CAR
11. Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears @ BAL
12. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB
13. Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans vs. MIA
14. Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints vs. DAL
15. John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks vs. TB
16. Kevin Boss, New York Giants @ WSH
17. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders @ DEN
18. Dustin Keller, New York Jets vs. ATL
19. Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots @ BUF
20. Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens vs. CHI

By Brian Spencer

Oh, the complicated webs we find ourselves entangled in during these waning weeks of the NFL season.

Everybody still in the hunt for their fantasy football championship has their own “unbelievable” story, and we’re no different. There’s plenty on the line tonight when the Arizona Cardinals take on the San Francisco 49ers, and I personally find myself in the awkward position of having to root for both a convincing Cardinals win and for the fearsome WR twosome of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to have relatively quiet nights (especially Fitzgerald). Here’s why:

- In one fantasy league, I hold a 20-point advantage over my opponent, who starts Larry Fitzgerald, for the right to advance to the semifinals. Two scores and the yardage that would accompany it would be enough to vanquish me; one score and under 100 yards, probably not.

- Not quite as nail-biting in ETB’s league, where I was forced to start Omar Ganther, Jason Snelling, and Ryan Moats as my three RBs and ended up posting a season-high in points with 155 (thank you, DeSean Jackson). It’ll take a monster effort from Boldin to make up his owner’s 40-point deficit, but stranger things have happened: last year, Boldin caught 7 passes for 140 yards and 3 TDs against the Miami Dolphins, so there’s some history here.

- Finally, we need the Cards to cover the 2 ½ point spread. If they do, we’ll (finally) win our weekly pick-em pool at Ye Olde Watering Hole by getting all seven of our picks correct, and be rewarded with a handsome prize of 1,000+ “points”. This would have happened some months ago if not for a stupid kicker.

With all of this in mind, here’s tonight’s totally objective fantasy football forecast:

Arizona Cardinals

Kurt Warner: 23-30, 243 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
Larry Fitzgerald: 6 catches, 64 yards, 0 TDs
Anquan Boldin: 6 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD
Steve Breaston: 7 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD
Beanie Wells: 25 carries for 149 yards, 4 TDs
Arizona DEF: 6 points allowed, 3 INTs, 4 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries

San Francisco 49ers

Alex Smith: 10-35, 94 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs
Frank Gore: 17 carries, 85 yards, 0 TDs
Vernon Davis: 4 catches, 25 yards, 0 TDs
Everybody Else: Not a fucking thing

Play well as a team tonight, Cardinals, but Fitzgerald and Boldin, please temper yourselves. Thank you.

Ranks Preview by Andrew Thell

Roddy White has been limited in practice this week, but he’s going to suit up on Sunday. And you’re going to be starting him. The Saints duo of new corners looked good against the Pats two weeks ago, but the secondary took a big step back last week in allowing Jason Campbell to tear them up. What’s great about White is that the Matt Ryan situation hardly affects him. He and Chris Redman have a nice rapport dating back to the 2007 season when Redman was a big part of White’s late-season coming out party. Last week Redman targeted White a massive 20 times, resulting in 9 receptions for 104 yards and a TD (albeit with 0:00 on the clock).

In the same game you need Robert Meachem in your lineup. He’s shockingly emerged as the most reliable scorer in the Saints loaded offense with 7 TDs over the last five games. At training camp Meachem said Saints fans were finally going to see a first-round pick on the field this season. The last few weeks they have.

With news that Daunte Culpepper will start this week Calvin Johnson’s projection certainly takes a hit. Still, Pep can huck it and the Ravens corners are extremely beatable. I’m not benching Megatron.

**UPDATE: It appears Hester will sit out.** The Bears are optimistic that Devin Hester will be in Chicago’s lineup this week. I’m less optimistic about his chances of being in mine. Jay Cutler has been atrocious of late and he deserves plenty of blame, but the bottom line is that Hester just isn’t getting it done. 6 receptions the last three weeks, no touchdowns since Week 7 and just 3 TDs total on the season. You can do better, especially with the excellent Packers secondary in town.

We talked about Pierre Garcon’s emergence and recent consistency last week and he came out and made us look good, nabbing 6 receptions for 136 yards. He’s been on fire since the Colts’ Week 6 bye. The Denver defense is tough, but they do give up points to No. 2 WRs. Keep rolling with the hot hand.

Just a hunch, but I think Andre Johnson pushes around Seattle’s smallish secondary this week: 9 receptions, 146 yards, 2 TDs.

See also:
- Week 14 QB Rankings
- Week 14 RB Rankings
- Week 14 TE Rankings
- Week 14 DEF Rankings

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals @ SF
2. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans vs. SEA
3. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts vs. DEN
4. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints @ ATL
5. Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. CAR
6. Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. CAR
7. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions @ BAL
8. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings vs. CIN
9. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. NO
10. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals @ MIN
11. Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys vs. SD
12. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals @ SF
13. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers @ CLE
14. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos @ IND
15. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers @ DAL
16. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles @ NYG

WR rankings 17 through 46, after the jump…

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