Empty the Bench

By: Andrew Thell

- Arian Foster’s massive showing was the fantasy story of Week One. The man broke out for 231 yards and 3 TDs on 33 carries (7.0 YPC). You can read hyperbole about the performance on any other site, but I’m more interested in the lesson we can take from this going forward. That lesson for me is to never get too caught up in average draft position or “round value” for any player. I loved Arian Foster going into drafts this year, and so did just about everybody else I talked too. It didn’t take a genius to see his situation was ideal. And like just about everybody else, for some reason I got it in my head that Foster was a fourth-round value because in mocks all summer I was able to nab him in the fourth or later, and as a result I didn’t get him in several of my “real” drafts.

If I was playing against the chuckleheads you see in mocks drafts maybe I would have gotten him in the fourth on my real teams too, but I’m not playing against them, I’m playing in competitive leagues against other owners who know their shit and he went a few picks before me in the third in almost every draft. If I really wanted Foster, and I did, I should have been willing to do what it took to get him – take him in the first or second round where the other workhorse backs on good offenses were going. You might have gotten some “reach” criticism on draft day, but nobody would be questioning the move today. Next year make an effort to forget about ADP and draft value and draft the players you want and you believe in.

- Depth on a fantasy football squad is like toilet paper: you can never have too much. In the next five months you’re going to use it, and when disaster (i.e. injury, the zombie apocalypse) strikes it can always be bartered for something you need.

- Philip Rivers clearly looked comfortable throwing to Legedu Naanee early and often. That’s a promising sign for the big (6’2”, 220 lbs.), talented receiver who could emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the Vincent Jackson holdout. He finished with a team-high 5 receptions, 110 yards and 1 TD. Is there a reason Naanee can’t emerge as the top wideout here, outside of Antonio Gates? We all assumed it will be Floyd because of his experience, but that’s far from set in stone. Floyd isn’t exactly known for his route-running or hands. In any event, between Naanee, Floyd and Gates, I’m not sure the Chargers are going to miss V-Jax all that much in the long run.

- Did Trent Dilfer call Mike Vrabel a “saucy” veteran prior to the last play in the Chiefs-Chargers game? I’ve always found Vrabel quite saucy myself, but I thought I was the only one.

- What a shitshow in New York on Monday night. Ugly, ugly football. I love Rex “Dress Sweats” Ryan, but after putting himself and his team out there all offseason Ryan and the Jets deserve a lot of criticism for that performance. Poor execution, terrible discipline. We saw a lot of good things on Hard Knocks, but I came away thinking Brian Schottenheimer was the weak link in the coaching staff and Mark Sanchez was the Achilles’ Heel of this extremely talented team. I’m even more convinced today as the QB and the gameplan came up woefully short against a Ravens secondary that is no longer an above-average unit. Maybe Sanchez will be a good player someday, but I don’t think he’s NFL-starter caliber yet. And I know Shonn Greene had two disconcerting fumbles in the first half, but I do not agree with benching the guy Ryan tabbed as their “bell cow” back so soon. Tomlinson acquitted himself well, but he’ll break down if he continues to see that kind of workload and I firmly believe Greene gives the Jets the best chance to break big plays and win games. I’m not panicking on Greene yet, but as somebody who is heavily invested I am very concerned.

- On the other side I loved what I saw from Joe Flacco and his new toy Anquan Boldin. Flacco shredded the Jets nickel defense on third down (11-19 conversions as a team). He took some shots, including a brutal hit on the first snap that led to a fumble, but Flacco stood his ground and delivered, often to Boldin, who finished with an extremely solid 7 receptions for 110 yards. Boldin showed off his trademark hands, toughness and ability to work in traffic. The Ravens managed just 10 points against a stout, albiet mistake-prone, Jets D, but this offense has cemented itself as a throwing team and better days are ahead.

More analysis of Week One of 2010 after the jump …

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By: Joel Martin

The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions look to be on the rise after miserable 2009 seasons, and each team presents a whole lot of potential fantasy value relative to their real-world prospects. In Detroit we have a perennial basement-dweller finally building a core of true quality players. They’re not yet a playoff prospect, but you have to believe that things are finally looking up for the lowly Lions. In Chicago, Lovie Smith has brought in emergency help from Mike Martz, who has spent the summer installing a pass-happy offense that promises, if nothing else, gaudy numbers. Those with stock in the 2010 Bears, not least Lovie Smith, have a lot riding on those yards translating into wins.

The Martz offense definitely put up some numbers (463 total yards, including 372 passing from Jay Cutler), but it didn’t translate into much on the board. Chalk this up to a horrible offensive line with a sprinkle of stupid play calling. The Bears repeatedly got good field position and did nothing with it. The fourth quarter series from inside the one yard line was perfectly representative. Three of four plays, they called a run to the inside. Nothing unusual there, but in this case Lovie Smith and Mike Martz ought to give some thought to the personnel they actually have. Namely, scrubs on the O-line that produced on a historically low percentage of goal-line rushes in 2009. It’s hard to blame Matt Forte for coming up short on each of these tries, as the backfield looked almost blue at times with the Lions’ big men manhandling their Bears counterparts [Ed. Ndamukong Suh is a beast].

You also have to question the situational decision making. The Bears were down by one point with six minutes to go, with a defense that had allowed only 104 yards to that point, yet elected to go for the touchdown. Really? You go for the TD on fourth down if you’ve got a good O-line and a bad defense. Is it possible that Smith believed either true, let alone both? Or could this be an example of Martz pushing Lovie Smith around?

On the other side of the ball the Lions clearly have some talent, but you’ve got to have some questions about the game plan. Their best offensive player, Calvin Johnson, didn’t have a reception until almost the end of the third quarter. Bringing in new WRs and TEs was supposed to free him up. What happened? When they did start throwing his way, he obliged with one spectacular catch after another, including what should have been the game-winner.

The big question in the aftermath is Matthew Stafford. In the first half with Stafford under center, the Lions were steady if uninspiring. A hundred yards of offense is nothing to write home about, but with a star-studded defensive line putting on the pressure and creating turnovers, the Lions went to halftime with a lead. Unfortunately they also went to the locker room with a worrisome injury to Matthew Stafford. He left near the end of the first half with an injury to the same shoulder that kept him out of several games last year. After the break, we got a whole lot of nothing from the Shaun Hill-led Lions until their last, desperate drive. The early reports are that Stafford will be out at least three weeks and perhaps indefinitely, but Stafford himself is saying he’ll try to play next week against Philly. After their second score, I would have picked the Lions to win at least four or five games this season. I wouldn’t expect any of those to come while Stafford is sidelined, and with his growing injury history, Lion’s fans might want to keep their paper bags around for a while yet.

What We Learned

Chester Taylor and Matt Forte seemed to split carries. Taylor did the better work on short screens and slants in front of the linebackers, while Forte showed great burst on multiple plays to the outside. Forte’s big receiving day was flashy, but I’m not sure how much we can depend on it. The optimistic owners can look forward to a Marshall Faulk role and a big boost from a fifth round pick. Pessimists will look at the two scoring plays as aberrations and sell high. Count me in the first camp, but I’m hedging by bets by warning the rest of you.

Jahvid Best, the Lions’ much-heralded rookie RB, was just OK. He pleased owners with his two touchdowns, but beyond that the stat line was cringe-worthy. 14 rushes at 1.4 yards a pop, and 5 catches at 3.2 yards each. Perhaps the Bears’ run defense is just that good, but factoring in the Stafford injury perhaps you should also sell high if you can find a taker.

Devin Hester is not an NFL WR, but we already knew that. The more important battle, between Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, remains open. They were both targeted often (7 and 10 times, respectively), and made good use of those targets (7.4 and 7.1 yards per target, respectively). Those who drafted Aromashodu in the later rounds should feel fine waiting till this is resolved. Knox owners are feeling justifiably itchy with their likely WR2 just one among many targets in a Martz offense. Neither are particularly appealing plays against Dallas next week, but Knox owners in particular will probably feel compelled to stick with him. Don’t expect big things if that’s you.

Joel Martin resides in Madison, Wisconsin, where he works for an evil but absurdly profitable IT company. He replenishes his lost karma by providing free dental services to orphaned possums and dispensing his football wisdom on the internet. In his free time, Joel is currently pursuing a master’s degree in statistics. And pimping.

By Joel Martin

Anticipation was high, at least around these parts, for Thursday night’s rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game. Of course two powerful offenses will always be a game to watch, but anticipation in this case was increased by the details of that last game, when the Vikings’ offense blew away the previously high-flying Saints, only to be undone by five (yes, five) turnovers, four of them by Minnesota’s offensive stars, Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson. The question Thursday, then, was what would the game look like if not for all those turnovers?

Turns out we didn’t get an answer. The Vikings made barely a whimper outside one solid drive in the second quarter (more on this in a moment). Brett Favre was badly out of synch with his receivers, and Brad Childress called a long series of confused and simplistic plays, as usual. The Vikings did nothing but run in the first quarter, found a decent balance (resulting in a FG and TD) in the second quarter, and then apparently got desperate after falling behind by (gasp!) five points in the third quarter and thereafter either threw the ball or handed it to the always impressive Albert Young (who?).

Meanwhile, the Saints played a patient game against one of the best defenses in the NFL, scoring on their opening drives of each half and simply controlling the game otherwise. Drew Brees was calm and in command, going 27-36 for 237 yards and a touchdown. The Saints ran the ball effectively when they needed to, putting up an above-average 91 yards on the Williams Wall. The result? A wasted effort by the Vikings D (lowest winning point total for the Saints since Sean Payton became coach four years ago) and a winning start to the Saints’ campaign to defend their title.

Things We Already Knew

- Drew Brees is as close to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football. It’s entirely possible that this will be his worst game of the season, yet he still put up 240 and a TD.

- The Saints spread the ball around, diluting value for any of their receivers. Brees was looking for Devery Henderson early, Marques Colston later, and everyone in between. Six Saints had more than 20 yards receiving; none had more then 62. Colston is the only reliable start at the moment, and keep your expectations low from week to week.

- Brett Favre is unprepared. Two weeks of training camp just isn’t enough time, especially with the loss of his go-to receiver. At one point in the second half he’d missed seven passes in a row, many of them totally uncatchable. Last year he dropped turds the first two weeks, putting up 120 and 150 yards against the lowly Browns and Lions, respectively. Expect a few weeks of crap again this year and then maybe a return to big points.

Things We Didn’t Know

- Adrian Peterson looks much improved over his lackluster second half last season. He worked on patience and ball security in the off-season, and both showed on Thursday. Nothing for the highlight reel, but he was waiting for and then hitting holes aggressively, fighting hard for yards, and bursting through holes and around the outside. Expect good things going forward.

- Pierre Thomas looks for real. Despite being the “#1 back” last year, he got the rock only 147 times, resulting in inconsistent fantasy scoring. This year his backups are gone (Mike Bell) or injured, and he appears set for a reliable RB2 campaign with high upside. He’s not going to be an RB1 due to the presence of Reggie Bush and Sean Payton’s pass-first offence, but Thomas was clearly the clock-killing workhorse on Thursday, and that’s a very good thing on the Saint’s offense.

- Vinsanthe Schiancoe is a solid TE1. He was consistantly drafted towards the back end of the TE1s, probably due to his unusually high level of red-zone targeting last year. Owners were understandably worried about a “return to average” effect, but it appears that those who did draft him have a strong value on their hands. With Sidney Rice out, Schiancoe was Favre’s first and third looks, and Percy Harvin only added to that faith with his weak route running. Schiancoe made two beautiful catches on the Viking’s lone scoring drive, including one for a 20-yard score.

- Last but not least, Greg Camarillo is a valuable addition to the Vikings’ offense and needs to have a bigger role. He probably won’t be fantasy-relevant except in very deep PPR leagues, but his sure hands and body control should be a regular part of the Vikings offense this year.

By Andrew Thell and Jon Lindberg

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

FIGHTERTOWN USA (Picked first overall)

The Picks

1. (1) Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
2. (24) Jamaal Charles, RB, KC Chiefs
3. (25) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
4. (48) Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Iggles
5. (49) Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
6. (72) Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. (73) Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston Texans
8. (96) San Francisco, Team Defense
9. (97) Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, KC Chiefs
10. (120) James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
11. (121) Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
12. (144) Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
13. (145) Javon Ringer, RB, Tennessee Titans
14. (168) Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots
15. (169) Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Best Value:

There are a number of picks here that have a chance to make this draft look good, but they’re contingent on injuries and depth-chart movement. In terms of straight-up value, Vernon Davis in the 5th round looks like a nice get. ETB readers know we love the mercurial tight end’s talent. He’s a physical freak in terms of size, speed and athleticism, and with an improving quarterback, offensive line and defense there’s no reason to think he can’t duplicate last year’s numbers and be a top-three player at his position.

Biggest Reach:

There’s a lot to pick from here, so let’s just go with rounds 6 through 10.

Mike Wallace is on everybody’s sleeper list, but he’s not a go-to type of receiver, he’ll have terrible QB play for the first month, and he could have fallen into the 8th or 9th round. Jacoby Jones is still third on the depth chart, and while he’s talented, he was also unlikely to go for another two-to-four rounds.

Taking a defense in round eight is downright perplexing, even if I love San Fran this year. Dexter McCluster was apparently drafted as an elite handcuff to Jamaal Charles despite the fact that he’s not a real NFL running back. But perhaps the biggest reach of the run is James Jones, a mildly intriguing talent who is third on the depth chart in Green Bay and has totaled just 99 receptions, 1,390 yards and 8 TDs in his three seasons in the league. He’s barely rosterable at this point, let alone worth of a 10th-round pick.

ETB’s Take:

Confused. Very, very confused. The gut reaction is to declare this draft the work of some poor, lost soul who just got out of 20 years in solitary and stumbled into the draft room by accident. However, given the fact this owner has won the league two years running it’s hard not to try and figure out the mad scientist angle here (I still haven’t figured it out). Still, even if you believe in the players, a good half of these picks could have been had at least a round or four later than they were taken.

It’s hard not to love the backfield trio of Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Stewart. This is likely the best trio of rushers in the league – all three have elite talent and could be top-five backs if things break right. That’s the good news.

The bad news is everything else.

Nobody I’ve talked to knows exactly what to make of Kolb this year. He’s a mediocre talent, but he has elite weapons around him and he’s in a great offensive scheme. I wouldn’t be comfortable taking Kolb in the first five rounds, let alone having him as my only QB on the roster.

The wide receivers here have all been hot names in draft season, but none is better than a WR 3 or 4 and none is a sure thing to score more than 5 TDs even if they stay healthy. And if one of them doesn’t work out? Dexter McCluster is the lone wideout on the bench. That’s scary.

In fact, the most striking thing about this roster is the complete lack of depth. Sure, Kolb, Wallace, Jones, Jones, San Fran, Bernard Scott, Anthony Dixon and Javon Ringer could all have very useful years. Could. But they’ll all need things to go just right for that to happen, and you just can’t walk out of a draft counting on a half dozen contingencies. And if you do, well, you better have great depth. This team doesn’t have a single player on the bench anybody should be comfortable starting tomorrow if/when injury strikes.

Extensive comments from FIGHTERTOWN USA after the break…

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By: Andrew Thell

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

Rippin’ & Tearin’, aka ETB’s Brian Spencer (Picked second overall)

The Picks

1. (2) Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2. (23) Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
3. (26) Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers
4. (47) Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC Chiefs
5. (50) Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
6. (71) Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
7. (74) Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts
8. (95) Thomas Jones, RB, KC Chiefs
9. (98) Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
10. (119) Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots
11. (122) Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
12. (143) Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos
13. (146) Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona Cardinals
14. (167) Dallas, Team Defense
15. (170) Tony Scheffler, TE, Detroit Lions

Best Value:

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins: Sandwiched between picks like Fred Jackson, Mike Wallace, and Jacoby Jones the Ricky Williams selection stands out as exceptional value. He’s in a timeshare with Ronnie Brown, but Williams is talented enough and strong enough at the goal-line to get his and then some. And we saw last season just how dominant Williams can still be when Brown went down (not an uncommon occurrence, mind you): in weeks 10 through 15 Miami fed Ricky and he exploded for 599 rushing yards and 6 TDs. A guy with that kind of upside, who can also contribute decent yardage with a weekly chance to score regardless of Brown’s health, is a stellar flex option.

Biggest Reach:

Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots: It’s hard to find fault with how the first seven rounds went here. Potential reaches include Thomas Jones in the 8th, Laurence Maroney in the 10th and Mike Williams in the 11th. If Rippin’ & Tearin’ has strong convictions about Jones or Williams he probably couldn’t afford to wait on them though, so that leaves the annually impossible-to-predict, generally underwhelming Maroney. The Patriots prefer to keep a full stable of backs active every game, going with the hot hand or situational need, and that’s always going to fuck with Maroney’s value. You just never know what you’re going to get – except for knowing he’ll be dealing with something “nagging” or “chronic” that will irritate you all season. Add in the fact that he had missed all three preseason games to date and has been dealing with an abdominal strain, groin, and ankle issues and I say, “No thanks.”

ETB’s Take:

As I mentioned, I’m very fond of the early-round strategy here. Rippin’ went with the obvious AP pick second, who should be a beast yet again. Then he followed that up with Tom Brady in the second, which is earlier than he goes in mocks, but where this team needed to take Brady if he wanted him. It’s a swing for the fences that could pay huge dividends.

After addressing RB and QB early, Rippin’ snatched two of the highest-upside wideouts available with Greg Jennings in the third round and Dwayne Bowe in the fourth. I see big seasons from both. Jennings, an elite deep threat, had an underwhelming season last year that can be directly attributed to poor offensive line play, a situation the Packers addressed in the offseason. Bowe has all the talent in the world, had a great offseason, and should emerge as Matt Cassel’s go-to guy with serious reception and red-zone potential.

Witten has only scored 6 TDs the last two seasons, and only 2 a year ago, but he also nabbed a massive 94 receptions for 1,030 yards last year and it’s hard to imagine him not topping 5 TDs in that offense. He’s as solid as they come.

Those selections were backed up with Ricky Williams, discussed above, and Pierre Garcon. I love Garcon this year. He’s not going to be among the league leaders in receptions, but he’s a home-run threat with huge upside.

The rest of the draft is a bit more murky, but guys like Matthew Stafford, Mike Williams, Eddie Royal, Tim Hightower, and Tony Scheffler are all major bounce-back or breakout candidates.

Comments from Rippin’ & Tearin’ after the break…

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By Brian Spencer

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

JD – 2 Guys & a Mic (Picked third overall)

The Picks

1. (3) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2. (22) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers
3. (27) Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
4. (46) Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
5. (51) Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
6. (70) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
7. (75) Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
8. (94) Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens
9. (99) New York, Team Defense
10. (118) Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints
11. (123) Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins
12. (142) Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears
13. (147) LenDale White, RB, Denver Broncos
14. (166) Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
15. (171) Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Value:

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons: Four tight ends were taken in successive picks after the stalwart Pro Bowler was drafted 75th overall. I guarantee that Gonzo was the preferred TE by at least three of the teams that went at 76 – 79, and I’m sure a bitter “fucking autopick” was muttered by each of those managers when Gonzo came down. The perennial fantasy stud can’t keep this up forever, but this season doesn’t feel like the one where the wheels stop turning.

Biggest Reach:

Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins: Blah. Every year the Redskins offense somehow gets more and more boring and depressing, and adding a fading McNabb into the mix plays right into that strategy. Already battling minor injuries and questionable heading into Week 1, the ceiling is decidedly low on the 12-year vet as he suits up for his first season as a Foreskin. Beyond Chris Cooley and (I guess) Santana Moss, there are not many other dependable options in this passing attack; if you thought it was bad in Washington last season, this year could be even uglier. Ben Roethlisberger was taken six picks later.

ETB’s Take:

Considering JD was the only manager on autopick, he either did a damn fine job of pre-ranking his players, or was the beneficiary of one stroke of luck after the other. This is a strong team, and though there are some question marks, especially at WR, every team has a few flaws and he has to be pleased with how this worked out.

Spending the first three picks on RBs is risky this year given the thin ranks of second- and third-tier WRs, but Williams at the end of the second and Grant at the top of the third are both fantastic value picks (even though Grant isn’t high on my personal board). I went back and forth between Jason Witten and Hakeem Nicks at 50th overall, and obviously decided on Witten since, well, it’s practically a fucking rule now that I own him every season. I tend to (try and) draft for balance and consistency, with upside mixed in, over too much hit-or-miss, and JD seems to have the sweet spot between the two with proven commodities (the RBs, Rivers, Gonzo, Mason) and potential breakouts (Maclin, Nicks, Meachem, Edelmen).

JD suffered through a miserable 3-10 season last year (sorry bud, had to rub it in once more), but should be in line for a nice rebound… if you buy the assertion that Williams, Jones-Drew, and Grant can hold up.

By Andrew Thell

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

Team Stanky (Picked fourth overall)

Team: spilling my seed

The Picks

1. (4) Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
2. (21) Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins
3. (28) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
4. (45) Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings
5. (52) C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
6. (69) Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
7. (76) Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Bucs
8. (93) Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
9. (100) Minnesota, Team Defense
10. (117) Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns
11. (124) Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets
12. (141) Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
13. (148) Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
14. (165) Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions
15. (172) Golden Tate, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Best Value:

Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns: The fantasy football gods have cast their first lightning bolt down upon lowly fantasy players, smoting Montario Hardesty owners with a season-ending ACL spontaneous combustion. The Browns clearly don’t trust Harrison as an every-down back given they drafted Hardesty in the second round, but the offensive line in Cleveland is better than you think and Harrison took advantage with 106 carries for for 561 yards (5.3 YPC) and 5 TDs… in the final three games of the season. With the talented rookie out of the picture, Harrison is a legitimate flex play for the time being.

Biggest Reach:

Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Bucs: The tight-end pool is a deep one this year, there are a lot of compelling options from round four through ten in most drafts. I have a hard time seeing Kellen Winslow as a real value in the 7th though. He’s not a bad player; Winslow could fall into the top-ten TEs when it’s all said and done, but the constant injury concerns and the state of Tampa’s offense make Winslow a lot less appealing to me than Zach Miller or Owen Daniels (early-season concerns included), the two players who went directly after Winslow in this draft.

ETB’s Take:

There is no shortage of upside on this squad. We know players like Ray Rice, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald can dominate and put a W on the board for Team Stanky any given week. Other young, explosive playmakers like Percy Harvin, Joe Flacco, Dez Bryant, and to a lesser extent Jerome Harrison and Darren McFadden are definite breakout candidates.

Like every team we’ve covered so far though, there are some holes and concerns here. Joe Flacco was, unsurprisingly given his age and experience, wildly inconsistent last year. He didn’t toss a single touchdown in weeks 9-11, and didn’t throw for more than one TD in a game between weeks 6 and 15. He’s got a cannon arm and Cam Cameron is transforming this offense into a powerhouse, but Flacco would make me nervous as my only QB on the roster.

Similarly, I love the talent of Brandon Marshall, but it’s hard to guarantee he’ll be his dominant self in a new run-first offensive scheme in Miami; Chad Henne is an upgrade over Kyle Orton though. Larry Fitzgerald is also difficult to project with it looking like some combination of inept Derek Anderson and undrafted rookie Max Hall will be responsible for getting him the ball.

CJ Spiller is an electric rookie stuck in a serious timeshare with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Jerome Harrison clearly doesn’t have the faith of his own team or the Browns wouldn’t have gone after Montario Hardesty in the second round (who was not injured as of draft day). Are these really a viable RB2 and 3 combo?

By Brian Spencer

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

Tequila Mockingbirds (Picked Fifth Overall)

The Picks

1. (5) Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. (20) Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
3. (29) DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
4. (44) Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cinncinnati Bengals
5. (53) Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
6. (68) Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys
7. (77) Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans
8. (92) Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
9. (101) Devin Aromashodu, WR, Chicago Bears
10. (116) Green Bay, Team Defense
11. (125) Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins
12. (140) Brian Westbrook, RB, San Francisco 49ers
13. (149) Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego Chargers
14. (164) Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings
15. (173) Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints

Best Value:

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Is the Cardinals offense going to be a total shitshow? That real possibility is weighing heavily on the draft value of Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells, both of whom are becoming increasingly available much later than they were, say, 2 weeks ago. Still, even with a bottom-dweller starting quarterback, and despite the lingering presence of Tim Hightower, the second-year back out of Ohio State should significantly improve on the 793 rushing yards, 143 receiving yards, and 7 TDs he posted in his rookie season. The key here is durability, as well as the Cardinals offensive line coming together fast–they only return one starter in the same position from last season.

Biggest Reach:

Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins: This “revamped” Redskins offense has the potential to surprise or to fall flat on its face, though we’re predicting the latter given the lack of positive vibes coming out of training camp. New QB Donovan McNabb is already dinged up and could miss some time, new head coach Mike Shanahan is already up to his old, tired mind tricks, Clinton Portis is still somehow the starting RB, and Thomas leads a pack of talented, if completely unproven wideouts behind Santana Moss. We all know that third-year WRs have a knack for breaking out, though, so you never know. Ben Roethlisberger would have been an excellent value pick here.

(Note: Apparently Tequila agrees, as Thomas has already found his way back onto waivers in favor of Chad Henne. Good move here.)

ETB’s Take:

True to his comments below, starting with the second round the tension was palpable almost every time Tequila was on the clock… a clock which he often squeezed dry of its allotted 1:30 minutes. Still, though things didn’t go according to plan, we’re not ready to write off last year’s runner-up.

Jackson and Ochofuckingcinco need to at least match their respective fantasy production from last year, though, and neither is a given: Philly is breaking in a new, unproven QB, while the Bengals will continue to run first, pass second… and when they pass, The Player Formerly Known as Chad Johnson now has Terrell Owens and intriguing rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham to compete with for looks.

Questions at running back after Gore and Wells, which should be a very strong tandem: how will the backfield situation play out in Dallas with Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice? How long will Michael Bush be sidelined (and does it even matter)? Owen Daniels could be a steal in the 7th round, but he might not pay dividends until the second month or so of the season as he works his way back from injury.

We expect Tequila to be fielding and floating trade offers early, as well as to be investing a fair amount of his waiver budget on hot pickups early in the season. Having the roster flexibility that comes with drafting so many fliers can definitely be viewed as an advantage.

Comments from Tequila Mockingbirds after the break…

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By Andrew Thell and Chris Stevenson

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

Mr. Opper (Picked sixth overall)

The Picks

1. (6) Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
2. (19) Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
3. (30) Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
4. (43) Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants
5. (54) Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts
6. (67) Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
7. (78) Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders
8. (91) Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
9. (102) Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
10. (115) Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills
11. (126) Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears
12. (139) Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns
13. (150) Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago Bears
14. (163) New Orleans, Team Defense
15. (174) Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans

Best Value:

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears: Despite the bad vibes coming out of Chicago this preseason, grabbing Jay Cutler in the 9th round was an absolute bargain. Cutler has the talent to be one of the truly elite QBs in this league; his problems are all between the ears. Offensive guru Mike Martz could be just the signal caller Cutler needs to tap into his vast potential. Sure, he’s going to get the shit beat out of him taking long drops behind that offensive line, but Pork Cutlet is also going to connect on a lot of deep balls and a 30-TD season seems like a real possibility – remember, the big story was the 26 INTs, but Cutler also tossed a respectable 27 TDs last year. He’s a great high-upside backup to the aging Favre, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cutler start 8+ games for Mr. Opper.

Biggest Reach:

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times… Yes, Lee Evans is explosive and he can get downfield for a deep ball with the best of ‘em. And he may even score 7-8 TDs this season – maybe – but I can guarantee you he won’t be in Mr. Opper’s lineup when he does. Evans is just so hit-and-miss on a week-to-week basis that he’s maddening to own. Last season you benched him Week 6 against Darrell Revis at the Jets and he nabs 4 passes for 68 yards and a score, then you start him Week 14 at Kansas City and he only catches one ball for 11 yards. That’s Evans in a nutshell.

This is what Lee Evans does: teases, frustrates, and disappoints fantasy owners. It’s in large part because the Buffalo offense and QB play is consistently among the worst in football; it’s also because Evans is such a low-volume receiver. He never topped 5 catches in a game last season despite being their No. 1 wideout. I know he caught 82 balls for nearly 1,300 yards in 2006, but it’s time to stop chasing the dragon. I’d much rather take a swing for the fences with Robert Meachem, who went three picks later.

ETB’s Take:

Mr. Opper knows what he’s doing, no question, and this is a team that should definitely compete. That said, he and I don’t see eye to eye on a lot of these players and I can’t help but feel like this is a “safe” draft that might not be all that safe. Instead of going with upside or position scarcity in the first round, Opper went with Michael Turner, a guy who toted the rock 376 times in 2008-09 and broke down last season as a result. Hopefully he’ll be back at full strength this year, because I do love the Falcons offense and schedule this season.

I like the Miles Austin pick in the second. There’s no reason he can’t replicate the 1,300 yards and 11 TDs he put up last season given he wasn’t named a full-fledged started until mid-season. But in the third Mr. Opper came back with Cedric Benson, a guy with a career 3.8 YPC who had been a complete dud until his “breakout” season last year when he averaged 4.2 yards a carry and totaled 6 TDs. The guy has never played a full season, and the Bengals absolutely ran him into the ground last year with games of 29, 27, 37, 34, 36 and 29 carries. Benson missed 3.5 games as a result, and I’m taking the over on that for games missed this season. I see big risk without much upside in Benson.

After that Opper put together a string of solid picks though. Steve Smith is Baby Manning’s go-to receiver and should put up big points in our partial-PPR scoring format. Addai is a TD machine in that offense, whether he deserves to be or not. Favre in the 6th is a solid play. I’d be worried about injury at his age, but the guy never misses a game. Zach Miller in the 7th is earlier than I’ve seen him go, but I can’t argue with the pick. He’s my favorite value TE this season and should be an absolute monster with Jason Campbell presenting a significant upgrade at the QB position.

Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Lee Evans, Mohamed Massaquoi and Greg Olsen are solid bench players that can be plugged in during the bye-week doldrums.

Extensive comments from Mr. Opper after the break…

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By Brian Spencer

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

SCLSU Mud Dogs (Picked seventh overall)

Team: SCLSU Mud Dogs

The Picks

1. (7) Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
2. (18) Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3. (31) Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
4. (42) Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
5. (55) Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
6. (66) Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
7. (79) Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Minnesota Vikings
8. (90) Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
9. (103) Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
10. (114) Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota Vikings
11. (127) Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers
12. (138) Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
13. (151) Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders
14. (162) Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens
15. (175) Cincinnati, Team Defense

Best Value:

Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders: After two disastrous seasons with JaMarcus Russell behind center, it’s clearly taking fantasy players some time to step back from that mess and honestly reassess the Raiders passing attack, no strings attached. Tight end Zach Miller, a potentially elite TE1 poised for a breakout season, can be had in the 8th – 10th round, and the only WR getting any sort of consideration on draft day is Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh-overall pick of the ’09 draft. He’s been uninspiring and uneven at best thus far, however, which makes the unheralded Louis Murphy an excellent late-round flier.

With Chaz Schillens out indefinitely, Murphy and Miller should be Jason Campbell’s first and second options through the air. Don’t forget that as rookies last year it was Murphy, not Heyward-Bey, who made somewhat of an impact with 34 receptions for 521 yards and 4 TDs, including a big game in a Week 13 win over the Steelers when he caught 4 passes for 128 yards and 2 TDs. Campbell is undraftable, but is a significant upgrade on his predecessor and could be dropping back to pass more than we think with an uncertain, unhealthy cadre of running backs unlikely to set the world on fire this year.

Biggest Reach:

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots: SCLSU will likely argue this is a value pick here, but this was too early to take Welker, who’s still not all the way back from a serious knee injury suffered late last season. Yes, he’s looked fairly good in the preseason, but even he admits to lingering discomfort: “I still feel like I’m a long ways off from that,” Welker said this week. “People say it looks the same. I don’t feel the same.” That’s not what you want to hear from your WR2, especially when you drafted him over safer-bet WRs like Steve Smith (NYG), Dwayne Bowe, Chad Ochocinco, Hakeem Nicks, and Percy Harvin.

The upside is obvious, though: let’s not forget Welker went nuts last year to the tune of 123 catches for 1,348 yards and 4 TDs, and that he’s riding a three-season streak of 110+ catches and 1,150 yards receiving.

ETB’s Take:

I also invested in Arian Foster in the third round in my other league, a move which on draft day might look like a reach, but this guy has looked really good during the preseason and seems capable of carrying the full-time load for this potent offense. The depth chart behind him is an absolute mess–Steve Slaton is more handcuff than threat right now–so big things, including the goal-line carries, should be in store for the undrafted second-year back.

He pairs nicely with Steven Jackson, a workhorse fantasy stud whose value is in the eye of the beholder this season due to his team’s shittiness, a rookie quarterback, and a stable of undependable wide receivers and tight ends. At some point, you have to think the wear and tear is going to catch up with him: now in his seventh season (can you believe that?), Jackson has averaged 283 carries and 52 receptions per over the last six years, including 324 and 51 last year. On one hand, he’s the best thing going for the Rams offense and as such will be leaned on accordingly, but on the other, we all know that everything that goes up must come down.

There’s solid depth at RB, WR, and even TE (though we would have taken Oakland’s Zach Miller or Washington’s Chris Cooley over Shiancoe, whose upside is limited and fantasy production is dependent on short TD passes from inside the 10-yard line), but the quarterback situation is a big unknown.

Some still feel Carson Palmer can get back to his days as an elite fantasy producer from 2005-07. On paper he seems to have more reliable weapons than he has in a few years with Terrell Owens and rookie TE Jermaine Gresham in the mix, but this is still a run-first and run-second team and Palmer seems to have a lost a lot of zip on his ball. We like Henne as a high-end QB2 option, especially with Brandon Marshall lining up as his WR1, but it’s a big TBD still on the second-year starter. Not to rub salt in the wounds (see SCLSU’s comments below), but Ben Roethlisberger in the 11th round would have probably solved this problem.

There’s potential for elite fantasy production from these WRs and RBs, probably enough to make up for what’ll like be a weekly all-or-nothing deal at TE; the contributions from Palmer/Henne will determine how much of a serious contender SCLSU Mud Dogs has assembled.

Quick comments from SCLSU Mud Dogs after the break…

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