Empty the Bench

Randy Moss and Laurence Maroney Photo Credit: Tom Croke/Icon SMI

Fantasy football during the NFL playoffs is nowhere near as popular as the regular season variety, but the game is slowly catching on as a sure-fire way to put a little more interest into Wild Card weekend and beyond. It’s also more instantly gratifying that most fantasy leagues, and adds in the additional skill of projecting team success in order to be competitive. It’s a pretty simple and entertaining game you can play with as few as four people, provided you don’t mind doing a little paper-and-pencil math.

The following rankings are based on a 1 QB, 2 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 TE league with standard scoring and a small number of teams. They are also for leagues which count total points, and are not formatted for elimination leagues. Keep in mind the need for depth at each position when drafting, as most NFL playoffs fantasy leagues do not allow transactions.

Overall Rankings 1-50:

1) Tom Brady, New England Patriots
2) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
3) Randy Moss, New England Patriots
4) Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers
5) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
6) Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
7) Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys
8 ) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
9) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers
10) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
11) LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

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Matt Millen Photo Credit: Todd Rosenberg/Icon SMI

This is indeed the most magical time of the year for Detroit Lions fans–the offseason. Scapegoats are run out of town, saviors are inked to hefty contracts, promises of improvement are made, and, ah yes, Matt Millen and his team of ace scouts bunker down for another game of darts NFL draft.

You see, despite what his rosy bio on the official Detroit Lions website claims, Matt Millen is not a very good NFL General Manager. In fact, he’s a very, very stinky one on many levels. His track record on coaching hires is abyssmal, his trades and free-agent signings are depressing at best, and then there’s his performance on draft day. The foundation for any successful NFL franchise is built upon solid picks in rounds one through seven, as well as through savvy undrafted free-agent pickups along the way. No team nails every one of their picks, but Millen nails hardly any.

With another chapter in Detroit Lions history mercifully over, ETB takes a look at how this once-proud bumbling franchise has gotten to where they are today based on Millen’s draft picks over the past seven years. Lions fans, you may want to stop reading now.

2001

First Round: Jeff Backus, T, Michigan
Second Round: Dominic Raiola, C, Nebraska
Second Round: Shaun Rogers, DT, Texas
Fifth Round: Scotty Anderson, WR, Grambling
Fifth Round: Mike McMahon, QB, Rutgers
Sixth Round: Jason Glenn, LB, Texas A&M

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We’re all about the ballsy predictions here at ETB. We’re always analyzing and second-guessing other “expert” picks, but we’ve been putting our balls on the table all season as well. Our Crystal balls. It’s been a lot of fun gazing into our Crystal Balls, revealing ghastly events yet to take place, bewildering sights to behold, breathtaking new vistas of human consciousness and (mostly) NFL player performances from week to week. Alas, this is the last Crystal Ball of 2007. Perhaps we should probably turn our precognitive powers on another subject during the offseason, like the stock market or stopping crimes. Meh.

They’re almost certainly all going to come true like always, but one or two of these picks may not. You had better believe we’ll be bragging about the ones we nail. Repeatedly. In your fat, soft face. And if/when we miss, it’ll be like it never happened. You’ll forget about it…. forget about it… forget about it…

It’s the last edition of ETB’s NFL Crystal Ball for the 2007 season. Seasons greetings and all that stuff… more importantly, here’s hoping you embarrass another grown man on Sunday, and take his money.

Andrew’s Predictions:

1. Coming into the season and in the early going the San Diego pass defense was very susceptible, but Antonio Cromartie, Drayton Florence and Quentin Jammer have taken strides as the season has progressed. They’re shutting down wide receivers and taking advantage of quarterbacks’ mistakes. They still allow 220.4 yards passing per game, but the Chargers have limited opposing QBs to just 19 TDs and snagged an NFL-best 27 INTs (Seattle is second with only 20). It all adds up to a bad week for the talented, yet inexperienced Jay Cutler, who nearly repeats his Week 5 performance against the Bolts: 20-of-32, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 3 sacks.

2. For the love of all things holy, please don’t start Chad Pennington in your championship game. The Tennessee defense has been a revelation this season, while Pennington has proved completely incapable of standing up to a strong pass rush or throwing a football any further than I can. The Titans allow just 200.8 through the air per game and have let up only 19 TD passes with 20 INTs and 32 sacks on the season. Albert Haynesworth & Co are going to mangle Pennington’s internal organs. The Crystal Ball only sees two options for this foppish dandy: 1) he will finish 18-of-34 with 179 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs and get sacked 5 times; 2) he will leave the game with a season-ending injury.

3. The Bungles are the worst in the NFL at stopping wide receivers, and Cleveland wideout Braylon Edwards puts an appropriate exclamation point on his incredible, breakout season: 9 receptions, 140 yards, 2 TDs.

(Chad Pennington Photo Credit: Anthony J Causi/Icon SMI)

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Aaron Stecker Photo Credit: Aaron M. Sprecher/Icon SMI

Plugging in your fantasy studs at RB, QB, and WR is easy; sorting out the fringes of your roster, not so much. We agonize over these decisions until 5 minutes before kickoff, then kick ourselves about the guys we started 10 minutes after kickoff. We’re talking about the WR/TE Flex and WR/RB Flex plays, and they’re a pain in the friggin’ arse.

Our Position Rankings now include more running backs and wide receivers, so you can refer to those ranks for your WR3 and RB2 options. ETB’s Cheat Sheet only focuses on those crucial flex-spot ranks.

Week 16 Cheat Sheet Rankings

Week 16 RB/WR Flex Plays

1. Aaron Stecker, New Orleans vs. PHI
2. Kolby Smith, Kansas City @ DET
3. Adrian Peterson, Chicago vs. GB
4. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta @ ARZ
5. Derrick Mason, Baltimore @ SEA
6. Kevin Jones, Detroit vs. KC
7. Bobby Engram, Seattle vs. BAL
8. Thomas Jones, New York Jets @ TEN
9. Laurence Maroney, New England vs. MIA
10. David Patten, New Orleans vs. PHI

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In The Red Corner…

Rushmore Calligraphy (#5 Seed)

- Regular Season Record: 7-6
- Managed By: Inherently Funny
- Got Here By… First defeated the #4 seed (ETB’s site designer, Will Tran) by 20 points, then knocked off the #1 seed by 0.52 points in the semi-final (thanks to Adrian Peterson’s final carry of -2 yards and Westbrook’s decision not to punch that TD in)
- First Five Draft Picks: Peyton Manning, Cedric Benson, Torry Holt, Carnell Williams, Baltimore Ravens DEF

Overview

It’s a minor miracle that Rushmore Calligraphy will compete for the coveted ETB Fantasy Football League Crown this week. As you can see above, no less than three of Rushmore’s top five picks have been major fantasy busts, and you could argue that Manning has not lived up to his lofty draft status either (third overall). Undeterred by rolling with a RB1 last clocked at 13.65 seconds in the 40-yard dash, Rushmore stormed the competition early, getting off to a torrid 5-0 start before hitting a wall and finishing out 2-7. In fact, he came dangerously close to falling right out of the playoffs, period. A timely waiver-wire move (Aaron Stecker) and enlisting two of the top eight fantasy tight ends (Jason Witten, Donald Lee) paid dividends, and he now sits on the verge of securing his very first Yahoo! fantasy title.

A Look at the Lineup for Week 16

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New England Patriots Photo Credit: Tom Croke/Icon SMI

It’s so close you can smell it, almost taste it. A fantasy title… or a third-place triumph. Whatever. Soon all will be revealed, and you find out if all those long, lonely nights making roster adjustments at 1:30am paid off. Don’t falter now. A mistake on who to start this week will slowly eat away at your very soul over the next nine long, Scotch-soaked months. Choose correctly, and you’ve earned the right to be a complete jackass for the next week and those leading up to next season. Without further ado, here’s ETB’s top 20 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs, 15 TEs, and 15 Team Defenses based on past performance, injuries, bye weeks, and matchups for Week 15.

Pittsburgh travels to majestic St. Louis on Thursday night, and the Dallas Cowpokes steamroll the Carolina Panthers this Saturday. Make the necessary adjustments to your roster before then.

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Kansas City Chiefs Photo Credit: Mark Coffey/Icon SMI

You don’t need us to tell you how important your fantasy matchup against that sniveling little turd who sits four cubicles over is this week. What you do need is a competitive edge, some of ETB’s patented, tax-free fantasy football analysis, to ensure sweet, sweet victory. Armed with this column, our Week 16 Position Rankings, and the rest of our Week 16 fantasy coverage, there’s little doubt you’ll be standing triumphant on Tuesday morning, clenching the still-beating heart of your vanquished adversary, one foot on his throat and the other on his tiny genitals, the sweet nectar of blood slowly dripping from your jowls.

As always, these are not necessarily the guys we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we dismiss. These aren’t all sneaky plays, either. These are just the matchups that we think deserve mention*. Good luck, godspeed, and feel free to drop in next week to boast about the spoils of victory.

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Well, this is it–the last ETB Stock Report for the 2007 NFL fantasy season. Most of you reading this are probably still sheeding tears of sadness into a glass of sour milk after your team was eliminated from championship contention. A select few of you can’t sit still as you sit on the precipice of triumph, a title and rights to months and months of relentless trash talk so close you can almost taste it.

Whichever group you fall into, it’s imperative to keep track of performance trends down the stretch, especially as it relates to young players, guys returning from injury, or aging veterans out to prove they still have “it.” With that in mind, your old friends at ETB cast an eye towards next season (and those troublesome spot starts for this week) with our Week 16 Stock Report, which breaks down the biggest movers, shakers and money makers from Week 15 of the NFL season. There weren’t many.

Fred Taylor Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Big Gainers:

Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: The player formerly known as Fragile Fred has come up huge for fantasy owners at the most critical time and proved there’s plenty left in the tank. Clearly, Taylor is not ready to cede his starting role to Maurice Jones-Drew just yet. He’s rattled off four consecutive 100-yard games, each more impressive than the last. Even given his recent strong play, who could have guessed he’d hang 147 rushing yards and a TD at Pittsburgh? With 487 yards on 6.86 YPC over this stretch and 4 TDs in his last six games, Taylor is once again on 2008 cheat sheets and a must-start vs. Oakland in the championship week.

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Tom Brady Photo Credit: Robert E. Klein/Icon SMI

- With the fantasy playoffs underway, the theme of the week was good teams getting knocked off after their stud quarterback laid an egg. Squads that were counting on the usually consistent Tom Brady (0 TDs), Peyton Manning (1 TD), Tony Romo (0 TDs), Derek Anderson (0 TDs), and, to a lesser extent, Carson Palmer (1 TD) got left high and dry. Those are five of the top eight quarterbacks in ETB’s scoring format this year, and yet they combined for a total of 2 TDs and 5 INTs. What’s worse, nobody could have seen this coming as all of their matchups (vs. NYJ, @ OAK, vs. PHI, vs. BUF, and @ SF, respectively) looked like cakewalks just a week ago. That’s fantasy football. Hey, everybody knew that Vince Young (2 TDs, 0 INTs) and Brodie Croyle (2 TDs, 2 INTs) would each outperform all those studs combined, right?

Indeed, if you were counting on Brady, Palmer or Manning to carry your fantasy team this week, there’s a good chance you’re up shit’s creek with a turd for a paddle. All three were consensus top-four QBs coming into the season, but inclimate weather sunk Brady in New England (14-27, 120 yards, 1 INT), a prolonged slump carried over into San Francisco for Palmer (19-31, 251 yards, 1 TD), and Manning was just plain average on the road in Oakland (22-39, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). These three will again all draw very favorable matchups on paper in Fantasy Championship Week, but at least one of them—Palmer—has to be considered a risky start regardless of the opponent.

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Plugging in your fantasy studs at RB, QB, and WR is easy; sorting out the fringes of your roster, not so much. We agonize over these decisions until 5 minutes before kickoff, then kick ourselves about the guys we started 10 minutes after kickoff. We’re talking about the WR/TE Flex and WR/RB Flex plays, and they’re a pain in the friggin’ arse.

Our Position Rankings now include more running backs and wide receivers, so you can now refer to those ranks for your WR3 and RB2 options. ETB’s Cheat Sheet only focuses on those crucial flex-spot ranks.

Week 15 Cheat Sheet Rankings

Photo Credit: Tom Croke/Icon SMI

Week 15 RB/WR Flex Plays

1. Kevin Jones, Detroit @ SD
2. Chester Taylor, Minnesota vs. CHI
3. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis @ OAK
4. Adrian Peterson, Chicago @ MIN
5. Kolby Smith, Kansas City vs. TEN
6. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City vs. HOU
7. Brandon Stokley, Denver @ HOU
8. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville @ PIT
9. Jabar Gafney, New England vs. NYJ
10. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta @ TB

Fortune Cookies: Welcome to Mr. Toad Martz’s Wild Ride. Will Kevin Jones get 20+ carries? He’s gotten at least 100 total yards and a TD every time that’s happened—all three times… The Minnesota offensive line is opening massive holes right now, and Chicago is trotting out one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. We think Chester Taylor has a great chance to score in the Metrodome this week… Anthony Gonzalez is “The Man,” as Peyton Manning put it this week, and should thrive against an Oakland secondary that doesn’t stop No.2 WRs… This is about as bad a matchup as any RB can see, but Adrian Peterson stays active in the passing game and Minnesota let Frank Gore catch 8 passes last week… Kolby Smith is not expected to be at full strength this weekend and that offensive line is in shambles, but he’s the featured back there and has a chance to punch one in with modest yardage… Dwayne Bowe has really cooled off lately, but he should be a primary target for Croyle in Arrowhead and Gonzo is back to drawing coverage to his side of the field… You’ll want to check Brandon Stokley’s status before kickoff on Sunday, but we think he’ll go. If so, he should be a decent flex play against a sagging Houston pass defense and opposite newly minted stud Brandon Marshall… It’s hard to bench Fred Taylor right now with the way he’s playing, but the matchup bumps him down to mediocre flex status for this week. Pittsburgh is brutal to opposing backs, and Taylor is no lock to get the carries on the goal line… Jabar Gaffney was involved in his most snaps of the season last week and has overtaken Donte’ Stallworth as the Pats WR3. The weather conditions may be rough, but you have to think New England is going to pile on the points against Mangini and the franchise that accused them of cheating earlier this year… Jerious Norwood has been playing better than Dunn all season and is a threat to take it the distance on any play, and yet hasn’t received double-digit carries yet this season. With HC Bobby Petrino resigning, perhaps the coaching staff will come to their senses and get him the ball, but either way he should be active in a matchup against the Tampa-2 that takes away receivers over the top.

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Photo Credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI

You’ll soon find out whether or not all those long nights making roster adjustments at 1:30am will pay off. Make a mistake on who to start this week and your errors will weigh heavily on your conscience over the next nine long, Bourbon-soaked months. Choose correctly, and you live to point your finger in that dude from Accounting’s face once again. Without further ado, here is ETB’s top 20 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs, 15 TEs, and 15 Team Defenses based on past performance, injuries, bye weeks, and matchups for Week 15.

The Broncos and Texans square off on Thursday night, while the Bungles and 49ers kick off on Saturday. Make the necessary adjustments to your roster before then.

More Free Fantasy Advice for Week 15:

- ETB’s Week 15 Stock Report

- ETB’s Week 15 Fantasy Matchups

- ETB’s Week 15 Cheat Sheet

Fantasy Week 15: Top 20 Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady, New England vs. NYJ
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis @ OAK
3. Tony Romo, Dallas vs. PHI
4. Brett Favre, Green Bay @ STL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle @ CAR
6. Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. ARZ
7. Derek Anderson, Cleveland vs. BUF
8. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati @ SF
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh vs. JAX
10. Philip Rivers, San Diego vs. DET (Check Status)
11. Kurt Warner, Arizona @ NO
12. Jay Cutler, Denver @ HOU
13. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia @ DAL
14. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay vs. ATL
15. Jon Kitna, Detroit @ SD
16. David Garrard, Jacksonville @ PIT
17. Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. WSH
18. Sage Rosenfels, Houston vs. DEN
19. Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota vs. CHI
20. Trent Edwards, Buffalo @ CLE

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Photo Credit: John Pyle/Icon SMI

This is for all the marbles. Time to push it to the max, take it to the extreme, and so on, and so forth. Ok. So you don’t need us to tell you how important your matchup against that turd who sits five cubicles over is. What you do need is a competitive edge, some of ETB’s patented fantasy football analysis, to ensure that you emerge victorious. Fortunately, our weekly Matchups are just in time. Armed with this column and tomorrow’s Position Rankings, there’s little doubt that you will stand triumphant on Tuesday morning, clenching the still-beating heart of your vanquished foe, one foot on his throat and the other on his genitals, his warm blood dripping from your jowls.

As always, these are not necessarily the guys we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we dismiss. These aren’t all sneaky plays, either. These are just the matchups that we think deserve mention*.

Drew Brees Photo Credit: Kevin Reece/Icon SMI

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Brett Favre, Green Bay @ STL
Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. ARZ
Derek Anderson, Cleveland vs. BUF
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle @ CAR
Jay Cutler, Denver @ HOU

Fortune Cookies: Don’t be fooled by last week’s performance from the St. Louis secondary. It was in driving rain and against a Bengals passing attack that has been completely out of sorts for over a month. Brett Favre, suddenly flush with options out wide, should have no trouble putting up at least 2 TDs and 250 yards– the guy is in the middle of perhaps his finest season and has at least 2 TD passes in six of the last seven weeks… If you own him, then you’re likely all too aware that Drew Brees has 22 TD tosses in his last nine games. It’s been an incredible run after that disappointing start and he needs to be in your lineup every week, but Brees should absolutely destroy the struggling, Adrian Wilson-less Cardinals secondary that just gave up 272 yards and 4 TDs to Matt Hasselbeck (with 0 INTs)… Derek Anderson has cooled off some from that torrid start, but he does have a pair of touchdowns in each of his last three games and the 6′6″ QB throws his best ball at home (100.1 QB rating in Cleveland). Buffalo’s defense has been better than advertised this season, but they struggle on the road… Coming off that four-touchdown explosion against the Cards, Matt Hasselbeck & Co. draw the moribund Panthers. Don’t let the 12th-ranked pass defense fool you, teams just haven’t needed to throw on Carolina much this season. However, Seattle has nearly abandoned their weak running attack and let Hasselbeck attempt at least 33 passes in each of the last eight games… Don’t look now, but after last week’s four-touchdown performance Jay Cutler is averaging 2 TDs and 240 yards a game with just 3 INTs over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Texans secondary is struggling over the same stretch, allowing nearly 265 yards a game through the air. Cutler has established an excellent rapport with stud WR Brandon Marshall, and we expect them to keep rolling this week.

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