By Brian Spencer

Anybody who’s tuned into these early weeks of the NBA season knows that the Detroit Pistons are a ticking time bomb, and that things could get a lot worse before they get a lot better. Players are feuding with coaches, coaches are feuding with players, and judging by all the empty seats at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the fans want nothing to do with the mess.

In the standings reality, however, at 4-8 they fall squarely into the also-ran column and are not yet a true cellar dweller a la the Clippers, Raptors, 76ers, etc… but they’re getting close to joining that rarified sewer air. With a little more luck–and talent–they could easily be 6-6, even 7-5, after dropping their first two games by a total of four points, then blowing a 21-point second-half lead in their third loss. Oh, sure, they’ve looked dreadfully listless and are clearly lacking in chemistry, but don’t believe everything you’re reading: despite all the turmoil, this team has actually been competitive most nights, and in the weak Eastern Conference they probably have enough talent to squeeze into the playoffs.

That said, it’s time to light this bomb’s fuse and blow this feeble version of the Pistons to bits. It should start with Tayshaun Prince, who seems to be doing everything in his power to force his way out. His body language has been embarassing for a guy raking in $11 million on the season and who’s asked to do very little besides hustle and set a good example; so far he’s done neither. There’s no place for Richard Hamilton anymore, either, not with Ben Gordon starting to heat up and be the lights-out scorer we know he can be. He has enough depth behind him.

Hamilton and Prince played starring roles in Detroit’s six straight trips to the Eastern Conference Finals, winning is all they know, and now that they’re losing on a team that’s rebuilding and trying to find its way, their hearts simply don’t seem to be in it. Understandable, to a degree, until you remember, again, that both are being paid handsomely to play a game they love. (Hamilton is guaranteed $12.6 million this season and the next two.) And don’t give me this “money isn’t everything” garbage: of course it’s not. But are we so used to athletes annually being paid more than the GDP of hundreds of small countries that salary, and return on that salary, should no longer be a consideration?

I’ve rooted for both these guys for such a long time, and I want to see them both succeed again–but elsewhere. No, this franchise cannot fully move into the future until it fully lets go of the past. (It’s worth noting, however, that Ben Wallace, the other holdover from the franchise’s most recent golden era, is still doing his best to be the hustling, banging, rebounding, defending warrior he’s always been in Detroit; his impact on the game, however, just isn’t the same at 36 years old. Don’t worry, though, it looks like he’s interested in playing defense even after his playing days are over.)

Of course, jettisoning their longtime stars is just the beginning.

More on the state of the Detroit Pistons after the break….

What’s the Plan?

What’s Rodney Stuckey worth as he heads into restricted free agency next summer? Can youngsters like Austin Daye and Greg Monroe be counted on as significant building blocks, or are they complimentary pieces? Will Jonas Jerebko, out for the season with a torn Achilles, come back as the same player? Does Charlie Villanueva, one of the most inconsistent talents in the league, have more value here in Detroit or as a possible trade chip?

Most teams have their fair share of problems, but the Pistons seem to have more. Unfortunately, with the team’s sale still pending, they’re all going to have to learn to live with each other. Once the franchise changes hands, however, it’ll clearly be time to clean house… and that might include moving on from the Joe Dumars Era. After all, as much as fans and NBA observers want to point the finger at Prince, or Hamilton, or head coach John Kuester, or Darko Milicic, Dumars is the puppetmaster who’s pulling the strings on this charade. Dumars is the one who’s overvalued his veterans and refused to budge on trade overtures he felt didn’t make sense. Dumars is the one who’s cycled through head coaches like dirty loads of laundry.

At some point, the lingering goodwill he’s earned and deserves for building a powerhouse has to run out. When you look at the roster he’s assembled–coaches and players–it’s hard to see a concrete plan in place. There’s certainly no identity to this team whatsoever, and it’s hard to imagine that there’ll be one next year. What exactly is Dumars building towards? And why oh why did he waste $1 million plus on Tracy McGrady?

Did he owe “T-Mac’s” agent a favor? Why hand out $1.3 million to a guy who’s only taking minutes–and a roster spot–away from youngsters that may (or may not, as it were) actually have a future with this franchise? Surely McGrady wasn’t signed to sell tickets: Pistons fans were spoiled rotten in the ’00s watching their team storm their way through the NBA and go deep into the playoffs. They’re going to pay to see a winning team, not a middling team with a depressing former All-Star who’s a shell of his former self. Didn’t Dumars learn his lesson with the Iverson debacle?

Take a look at this roster: I count Gordon, Daye, Monroe, Jerebko, Stuckey (I feel he should be resigned to a three- or four-year deal), and Villanueva (maybe) as keepers; I’ll throw Will Bynum in, too, as a backup PG. Six or seven players, half of which may not even be starter-quality, worth hanging onto for the next few seasons does not constitute vision, planning, or direction: it’s a recipe for disaster. Playoff-bound or not, something’s gotta give in Detroit.

- Somebody should make a play for Sacramento Kings big man Jason Thompson. He’s wasting away in Sac Town, and it’s painful to see that kind of talent go to waste. Thompson has been pushed out of the rotation with the arrival of DeMarcus Cousins and Samuel Dalembert, but it wasn’t long ago the third-year player was considered a significant building block for this franchise. Thompson has good size, a strong offensive repertoire with decent range and plays with a lot of energy underneath. He can rebound and score around the basket, and he should only get better at those things as he fills out. He reminds me a little bit of Chris Bosh, but with more natural rebounding tendencies and less pure shooting skills.

The Kings have asked Thompson to play some small forward, but that’s a foolish idea. He’s 6-11 and 255 lbs. and needs to be playing near the glass to be effective. Paul Westphal is giving JT just 15 minutes of a run a night to this point after the he averaged 28 and 31 minutes a night in his first two seasons in the league. To me that says a lot about the third-year power forward’s availability. Any team in need of a big who can contribute now and has some pretty good upside long-term should be interested. Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, Oklahoma City and Phoenix strike me as especially good landing spots.

Jason Thompson photo credit: Yahoo!/AP

- I know he’s been consistently filling the point and rebound columns of the box score for eight years now, but it’s a shame to see Zach Randolph coming back after the youngsters in Memphis got off to such hot starts. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that while Randolph was sidelined with a tailbone injury Rudy Gay and Mike Conley got off to blazing starts, easily the best of their careers. It’s true that Marc Gasol was also out a few games to start the season, but he plays within the offense and is nowhere near the black hole on offense Randolph is.

- The Jeff Teague era is coming in Atlanta, and it may be sooner than later. Mike Bibby brings some veteran savvy and outside shooting to the table, but that’s about it at this point. He’s turning into a liability on defense and he can no longer use his quicks to draw defenders and find the open man. Teague isn’t what you would call a pure point right now, but he’s fast and very good at penetrating and getting to the rim. Though he might not have the blinding acceleration, he reminds me of Lou Williams, but Teague’s not quite there with the offensive polish yet. Still, he’s dynamic and in the Hawks’ new motion offense I don’t think it will be long before he represents an upgrade over Bibby once the team gets acclimated to Teague’s style of play.

- Paul Millsap‘s massive game in the Jazz’s big comeback win against the Heat was an anomaly, but it wasn’t a fluke. Millsap has always worked his ass off around the basket on offense and defense, which is what has earned the former second-round pick a pretty big role with Jerry Sloan in recent years. But he’s also worked very hard on his offensive repetoire of late and it’s shown so far this season. Somewhat lost in the 46-point line from Tuesday was the fact that Millsap hit 3 threes after coming into the season having hit just 2 threes in his career. It was a desperate situation and he’s not about to start playing that far away from the basket, but it just shows how improved his jumper is and the kind of confidence Millsap is playing with right now.

Critiquing Walt “Clyde” Frazier, a look at the Dallas big men, and checking in with Charlie Murphy and Prince, after the jump…

- When I first moved to New York City five years ago I actually kind of enjoyed Walt “Clyde” Frazier‘s color analysis of Knicks games. At the time there was very little to like about the product New York was putting on the court and Frazier’s casual, folksy commentary awash with absurd alliteration (see what I did there?) was a welcome diversion. My affection for his commentary stylings quickly wore off though; the man is boring and lazy. At this point Frazier is like a video game announcer: the names may change, but I’ve already heard everything he will ever say. The mark of a good color analyst like a Hubie Brown or a Jim Barnett is you will learn something about the game from each broadcast they do. With Frazier there is no actual analysis, just sweaty clichés.

I was largely able to ignore Knicks broadcasts the last couple of years (thank you, NBA League Pass), but now that the Knicks have some guys I actually want to watch (Anthony Randolph, Amar’e Stoudemire, Ronny Turiaf, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas) and I’m tuning into games it’s getting painful. MSG needs to make a change. Unfortunately, Frazier is a fan favorite, so I doubt change is on the immediate horizon. Side note: if you are looking for some actual Knicks analysis, check out The Real King Fish. It’s not a hardcore sabermetric analysis site, but the guy does his homework, loves his Knicks and has a good sense of humor about it. It’s my favorite Knicks tumblr (as well as the only Knicks tumblr I know of).

- Kudos to Donnie Nelson for bringing in Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood to provide the Mavericks’ front-court with some much-needed muscle, defense and rebounding. Chandler appears to be winning the lion’s share of the minutes, but both of these guys make a lot of sense next to Dirk Nowitzki‘s more finesse-oriented game. That’s not a knock on Dirk or a generalization based on him being a Euro, but with dedicated rebounders Dirk is free focus on scoring and roam more on offense. I think that’s contributing to his current 58% shooting from the field, which is a full ten percent above his career shooting. I don’t think Dirk can keep scoring at that clip, but I do think it will help him stay fresh and be more consistent on offense all season long. And once the playoffs roll around, you can never have too many big men who can give solid defensive minutes (and fouls) when your route to the NBA Finals likely goes through Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol.

- And finally, I leave you with perhaps the best basketball-related comedy skit of all time. I know it’s old, but Charlie Murphy’s explanations of Prince will never get old to me:

- I was excited when Dorell Wright got a fresh start through free agency, signing with the Golden State Warriors back in July. He’s always been a pet player of mine who just couldn’t seem to put it all together in terms of health and consistency in his limited chances. The former preps-to-pros 19th-overall pick has all the talent in the world, but throughout his six years in Miami he had a hard time cracking the starting rotation and staying on the floor. When he’s been out there he’s always flashed athleticism and range though, topping out in the 2007-08 season with modest, but efficient, totals of 8 points and 5 boards with nearly a steal and block per on 49% FGs and 83% FTs in just 25 minutes a night.

Even with Don Nelson out of town, I can’t think of a better landing place for Wright’s versatile and up-tempo talents than Golden State. He won’t keep this up, but so far the results have been good: 20 points, 5.5 boards, 4.5 threes, 1.3 steal and 1.3 block on 51% FGs in 37 minutes a night (the most of his career by a long shot). Again, this shooting won’t keep up (especially from deep), but Wright is a rangy 6-8 athlete who can score and put up hustle stats on this fast-paced offense. I’m taking a flier on my fantasy teams, and as one of my 30 Players I Want to See More Of from last season I’m happy he’s finally getting tick and producing.

(Dorell Wright photo credit Yahoo!/AP)

- Listen, I was a big Chris Bosh fan. He seems like a nice, affable guy and he’s a great basketball player – or at least he was. But when Bosh signed with LeBron and Dwyane this summer he basically threw in the towel on being his own man and a franchise leader (same goes for LeBron) and signed up to ride coattails and be a role player. I know winning is what this game is all about, but I have a hard time respecting his decision. It’s like when Karl Malone made his last-ditch bid for a ring with the Lakers in 2003, except even more pathetic with Bosh having his whole promising career ahead of him. I would have really liked to see Bosh get it done somewhere as “The Man,” and maybe we will someday, but I don’t have a whole lot of interest in watching this 13 points and 6 boards on 10 shots a game business.

- You’ve read it everywhere else already, but here’s the obligatory “Rajon Rondo is ridiculous” report: after dropping 17 dimes with 0 (zero) TOs against the Pistons on Tuesday and 15 more on Wednesday the wily son of a bitch is averaging 16.4 assists per game and set an NBA record with 82 assists in his first five games. He’s officially in the discussion for NBA’s best point guard, and if you’re booting free throw percentage on your fantasy team he’s easily one of the most valuable players in our imaginary game.

- I think Mike Conley‘s new five-year contract worth $40 million surprised everybody, but the kid has been playing lights-out so far this season. The astronomical 3.4 steals per game will come down, but if he can maintain that 16 points and 9 assists per game while playing heady defense he might just be worth it. When draft night rolled around in 2007, who woulda thought Conley have the best career of the Ohio State products on the board?

- I really like Larry Drew’s new motion offense in Atlanta, and at 5-0 the early returns have been good. With so many young athletes who can dart around the court in the half-court and without any plodders on the roster is makes a lot of sense for the Hawks. Al Horford‘s numbers have been pretty similar to last season thus far, but he looks good. In the games I’ve caught Horford is showing improved moves and footwork on the blocks and better touch on his intermediate jumpers.

- The early returns on Blake Griffin are promising, but perhaps not as great as the hype machine would lead you to believe. Don’t get me wrong, the guy is extremely explosive and attacks the rim and glass with reckless abandon. He oozes potential, but he’s also putting up big numbers on a very bad team and is still as lacking in polish as many of the pessimists thought. The 17 points and 10 boards per are great, but 46% FGs and 52% FTs aren’t so great and in five games Griffin has blocked just one shot. If he can stay healthy big things are coming, but it’s going to take some time. Or maybe I’m just bitter I traded him before the season on my keeper team …

Checking in with John Wall, Brook Lopez, Mike Fratello and more, after the jump …

- I finally got a chance to sit down and watch a John Wall game on Tuesday night, and I picked a good one. Wall absolutely went off in the overtime win over Philly to the tune of 29 points, 13 assists and 9 steals (and 8 TOs) on 9-for-16 shooting. He was clearly quicker than anybody else on the floor save perhaps “Sweet” Lou Williams, and at least for one night his jumper looked better than advertised. His dancing moves were pretty good, too. Gilbert Arenas is rapidly hurtling toward irrelevancy.

- Speaking of Louis Williams, that kid can score. I can understand why the 79ers didn’t see him as their point of the future, the ETB favorite is not a natural facilitator, but damn he is quick and can fill it up when he’s on. Coming off the bench on Tuesday Sweet Lou dropped 30 points on 16 shots in just 32 minutes, and he now sits at 18 points and 4 assists in just 25 minutes for the season.

- On the offensive end of the floor fantasy owners have to be pleased with what Brook Lopez has shown so far, but his rebounding and shot-blocking have been lacking. Lopez is clearly the Nets best player and the focal point of their offense, and I was beginning to wonder if the extra attention paid and energy expended on the offensive end is impacting the rest of his game. That’s why it was encouraging to see him swat 5 in Wednesday’s matchup with the Bobcats, though the rebounds still haven’t been up to snuff. The 23 points are great and it’s encouraging to see him getting to the line 7.5 times a game in the early going, but there’s no reason he should only be grabbing 6.5 boards a game.

- Mike Fratello sounded drunk on that Nets-Bobcats broadcast Wednesday. During a first-half commercial break Fratello began drawing doodles all over the upcoming schedule and asking play-by-play guy Ian Eagle if he could decipher them. When Eagle couldn’t, Fratello explained that the squiggly lines over ORL were a magic wand and the ones over CLE were the “crown that’s no longer there.” Eagle responded, “You realize we’re on the air, right? This isn’t a rehearsal?” Later in the second half Fratello inexplicably exclaimed “he likes the mushroom and swissss!” NBA League Pass = good times.

- Boris Diaw looks fat. I don’t remember his gut or ass looking that big.

By Brian Spencer

With just 2 weeks remaining until the fantasy hoops playoffs roll around, I’m left to grasp at one last straw with two of my three teams currently on the outside looking in: streaming.

Few strategies are as polarizing as the daily add-drop, add-drop, add-drop approach to amassing stats and winning categories. Some dismiss it as borderline cheating, as a desperate interpretation of the rules in leagues where the commish failed to institute a cap on roster moves. Others see it as just another means of achieving an end, and recognize that there’s plenty of strategizing and thought that go into it.

When do you start the process? Who should you add, and who should you drop? Which categories are you trying to “steal”, and which categories are you outright giving up on? Which players are worth hanging onto just in case it works and you advance?

The fact is my two teams still gunning for a postseason bid have seriously underperformed. In one league, Jason Richardson and Charlie Villanueva haven’t exactly graded out as the 5th- and 6th-round picks I made them, Greg Oden and Michael Redd bowed out early with season-ending injuries, and, well… let’s just say this is the last time I reach on Elton Brand.

In the other, Jose Calderon has a been a huge bust as a third-round pick, Oden’s body happened, and Tyrus Thomas, Trevor Ariza, Jason Thompson, and Ramon Sessions have all not taken the fantasy steps forward I was banking on. My last few picks on draft day were terrible.

So what am I supposed to do? Give up, even though despite it all I’ve managed to stay within 3.5 and 5 games, respectively, of a playoff berth with 2 weeks to go? Fuck no. I’m streaming till the bitter end.

But we’ve already covered this topic before, so let’s reach into the vast ETB vault and pull out Andrew’s fine case for streaming in fantasy hoops:

Let’s take a moment and discuss the ethical status of streaming first: there is none. There is nothing wrong with streaming. First, it’s perfectly permissible within the rules. You can look them up. Nowhere will you find a clause specifically prohibiting adding and dropping players to gain a strategic edge.

Second, this is a legitimate fantasy sports strategy: it takes basketball knowledge, it takes skill, it takes diligence, it takes timing, it takes the ability to project performances, it takes finesse and there are real risks built into the league (FG%, FT% and TOs).

Third, this is a competition. It’s supposed to be cutthroat. So not only can you stream, as a participant in a communal contest it is incumbent upon you to maintain the competitive integrity of the league. We all frown upon those owners who give up on their teams weeks or months before the end of the season because it ruins that competitive balance. If you lose by 10 points and a couple of add/drops would have put you over the edge, you’re not much better.

That’s just the tip of the streaming iceberg. For much more on the underrated art of streaming, including best practices and how to fight back when somebody does it to you, revisit Andrew Thell’s case for streaming in fantasy hoops.

By Brian Spencer

We’re up again as hosts of the weekly fantasy hoops roundtable, which runs throughout the NBA season and along with us features the writers below. A little over a month ago we discussed the fantasy (ir)relevance of Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson, and this time around the topic is:

Which NBA team is the least fantasy hoops friendly?

Joining Me at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:

- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk
- Nels, Give Me The Rock

ETB’s Pick:

It’s a close call between the Detroit Pistons and New Jersey Nets, two craptacular offensive powder puffs at the bottom of the league in team scoring, field-goal percentage, and assists, but the difference between them is that the Pistons actually have some established, proven firepower; they just haven’t gotten it done so far. Attribute it to lingering injuries (Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum) or to disappointing play (Charlie Villanueva, at times Rodney Stuckey), but either way this team, whose strength was supposed to be on the offensive end, has given fantasy owners very little to cheer about. Never would have thought that 35-year-old Ben Wallace would be the most valuable fantasy contributor.

Still, at least the Pistons have guys who should, theoretically, pull it together at some point: outside of emerging stud Brook Lopez, the Nets’ likely fantasy assets have been shockingly inadequate. It starts at the point with Devin Harris, who’s taken a sizable step back in his second full season in Jersey in addition missing games, as usual. His shooting (38%), points (15.9), free throws (78%), boards (3.2), assists (6), and steals (1.6) are all down–in some cases way down–compared to last season.

Beyond that, at 27 years old next month, Harris is suddenly anything but a slam dunk as the team’s PG of the future. There have been whispers that he’s readily available on the trade block, which makes sense if the team is angling for standout Kentucky PG John Wall in this June’s NBA draft. They’ll certainly have the most ping-pong balls in the hopper.

Add to Harris’ fantasy misery that of Courtney Lee (39% FG, 27% 3PT), Yi Jianlian (points and boards only), the steady fade of Chris Douglas-Roberts, and… that’s where the fantasy prospects stop. Ugly.

Nels, Give Me The Rock

With a little bit of fancy statistical analysis using the GMTR Player Rater, Patrick and I came to the conclusion that the Detroit Pistons are easily the least fantasy-friendly team in the league. If I had to hypothesize without looking at any stats, I probably would have said San Antonio, since they’re so slow and their players aren’t doing all that great this season; looking at the stats, though, they’re actually doing better than I thought they were.

We came up with Detroit by taking the top 156 players from the Player Rater (156 is the number of players in a 12 player x 13 team league), and then comparing on two stats. First, we took the average of rank of the players on each team, and second, we counted the number of players in the Top 156 from each team.

The worst team in the league for average ranking was the Detroit Pistons with 111.50. Compound that lackluster performance by placing only four players in the Top 156, and all of a sudden, you’ve found yourself with the least fantasy-friendly team in the league.

The only teams with less players in the Top 156 are the Cavs and the Pacers, who both have three players in the Top 156, but they ended up at 2nd and 8th in average player ranking, and adding one more guy to get them to the four that Detroit has is not going to sink anyone’s battleship. The Magic are actually close with their average player ranking of 101.80, and five players in the Top 156, but again, if you add another player to Detroit to match them up with Orlando’s five, then their average ranking is only going to torpedo their submarine.

HOOPSWORLD, Lester’s Legends, and BleacherCreatureRotoTalk after the break…

Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld

There are a few different ways to answer this question: The Nets are not exactly fantasy friendly, because besides being the worst team in the NBA, they are also the lowest scoring team (90.2 PPG) and shoot the worst percentage from the floor (42%). But I still would love to have Brook Lopez on my team and Devin Harris will turn it around.

So, I’ll go with the Golden State Warriors, due solely to the fact that inmate Don Nelson is running the asylum over there. Nellie’s senseless and insane substitution patterns and unpredictable rotation patterns earn my vote for “least fantasy-friendly squad.”

Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends

The team I feel is the least conducive to fantasy success is the Cleveland Cavaliers. I know they have LeBron James, but his rebounding ability steals from their bigs and his passing ability steals from their guards. After King James, the pickings are slim.

Mo Williams is solid, but he’s probably in the bottom third of NBA #2 men. They have a trio of big men in Shaq, Big Z, and Varejao that somewhat cancel each other out. They don’t have a true point guard and their wing players are below average.

It gets even worse when you look at the other side of the ball. As of Friday, January 15th, they are third in scoring defense, allowing just 94.3 points per game. They allowed 100+ points in just 11 of their first 41 games (26.8 percent). They also lead the league with lowest field-goal percentage allowed at .434. Plus, they are eighth in the league with three-point percentage allowed at .338.

Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk

There’s a very close three-way tie in the NBA for the worst fantasy-friendly team in the league between the Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, and Minnesota Timberwolves. My answer is based on the number of “rosterable” players I could quickly identify for each team.

The Detroit Pistons have four players who clearly belong on fantasy basketball rosters: Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey and Ben Wallace. A rough estimate of the league average for what we are calling “rosterable” is between 6-7 players, so the Pistons are clearly below that mark. Furthermore, the players that do make the cut are hardly spectacular performers from a fantasy basketball perspective.

The Miami Heat have three “rosterable” players: Michael Beasley, Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O’Neal. While there number is limited to three players the fact that Dwyane “Flash” Wade is a top-five player in the NBA kind of makes it hard to crown the Heat the worst NBA team.

Then there is the Minnesota Timberwolves: Kevin Love, Al Jefferson, and Johnny Flynn are really the only players we see making the cut. While Love and Jefferson are monsters on the low blocks, Flynn is a questionable contributor at this point in his career. In fact, one could argue that he should be left off this list and the real “rosterable” number for the T-Wolves is just two.

The answer to this week’s question, however, requires the selection of one team. Given their low number of “rosterable” fantasy basketball players, that would have to be the Minnesota Timberwolves. With only two players really contributing it’s hard to call Minnesota a fantasy basketball friendly environment.

As a side note, we found the Golden State Warriors, Chicago Bulls, and recently the Philadelphia 76ers of interest. While these three teams have deep talent and implement systems conducive to offensive output, their coaching is very erratic. If players are consistently getting minutes on these teams they are almost guaranteed to produce. However, all three coaches (Don Nelson, Vinny Del Negro, and Eddie Jordan) tend to change their rotations daily. We thought it was worth noting these three enigmatic fantasy basketball situations as they are boom or bust depending on the coach’s mood.

By Brian Spencer

Chris Douglas-Roberts, GF, New Jersey Nets

With the Nets currently on pace to finish with a record of 4-78, there’s little to cheer about in Jersey this season (shocker!). Most of the players on this roster know they’re expiring-contract stopgaps who won’t be asked to return next season, but cocky second-year swingman Chris Douglas-Roberts is making his case as a long-term fixture in the Nets’ brighter future.

At times CDR reminds me of a poor man’s Paul Pierce: a rangy 6-7 guard brimming with confidence who’s as comfortable putting the ball on the floor as he is launching it from outside, and who plays good-not-great defense but has the skills to get better (like Pierce did early in his career). The Nets’ second-round pick in ’08 was upset about falling out of the first round on draft day and vowed to make those who passed on him regret it, and right now it’s hard to argue with his contempt; he’s outplaying many of the guys taken ahead of him and, though hindsight is always 20/20, arguably should have been a lottery pick.

Now, most players in the NBA are capable of putting up nice boxscores when given the burn, and obviously CDR’s contributions haven’t yet translated to wins. Numbers can be deceiving. Still, I like what I’ve seen in the few Nets games I’ve masochistically sat through: he’s not afraid to make mistakes, has a nice stroke on his jumper, and has the look of a guy who can take and make big shots down the road when the Nets actually have them to be taken. Through 17 games, CDR is averaging 16.9 points (up from 4.9 in his rookie season) on 46% shooting, 4.7 boards, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals in 36:30 a night.

Carl Landry, FC, Houston Rockets

The Rockets desperately needed somebody, anybody, to step up and fill the considerable frontcourt void left by the absence of Yao Ming (injury) and the retirement of Dikembe Mutombo. They brought 29-year-old David Andersen over from Europe (he’s the team’s tallest player at 6-11), and… that’s it, at least for now. With the lack of size in the middle seemingly compounded by the loss of Ron Artest to LA, most predicted doom and gloom in Houston this year, but so far GM Daryl Morey’s pack of hard-working tweeners is defying expectations and positioning themselves to at least be in the playoffs conversation.

It’s been a team effort, but credit 6-9 forward Carl Landry as one of the most significant pieces of this overachieving puzzle in Houston.

Now in his third season after being taken at the top of the second round in the 2007 NBA Draft, Landry is proving size doesn’t always matter and has hustled, banged, and scored his way into early Sixth Man of the Year contention. After scoring 20+ points in five of his last eight games, Landry has nudged his points per to 16.3 (7 more than last year, despite averaging just 4 more minutes), and is doing so on just under 57% shooting. That makes him the team’s third-leading scorer behind Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks (and by the way, of the team’s top-five scorers only Brooks was a first-round pick, and he was taken 26th overall at that).

Let’s also not forget that Landry is tough as shit: he solidered through Game 3 of his team’s first-round matchup with the Jazz in ’08 despite losing a tooth (later draining the game-winner), and last season returned to the court just a few weeks after being in a car accident and getting shot in the leg by one of the dudes who hit his car.

Diamonds in the rough in Golden State, Milwaukee, and Memphis after the break…

Anthony Morrow, GF, Golden State Warriors

Since we all know by now that Warriors head nut Don Nelson often sets his rotation by pulling names out of a hat (and often entirely leaves Anthony Randolph’s name out of said hat as a hilarious practical joke), kudos to 6-5 swingman Anthony Morrow, a second-year undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech, for carving out consistent minutes on a team most defined by inconsistency.

You might expect Morrow to be a chip off the Warriors’ block of inefficient chuckers, but this kid is shooting a semi-remarkable 53% from the field and an amazing 51% on 4.6 three-point attempts a night. That’s good for second best in the NBA, behind only Chris Paul (and tied with Sacramento Kings rookie Omri Casspi). Morrow’s scoring acumen becomes more and more proven by the game: so far, he’s put up at least 20 points in 33% of his games, which adds up to 14.6 points per along with 4.1 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.3 threes.

Not totally unexpected given his splits last April (16.9 points per, including a season-ending 33-point performance at Phoenix), but a welcome surprise all the same given the unsettled situation in GS. We’re always concerned here at ETB Headquarters about the negative impact Nelson might have on the development of this young, uber-talented core, but the early signs on Morrow, at least, point to him having thick enough skin to tough it out until Nelson’s retirement or dismissal, whichever comes first.

Ersan Ilyasova, F, Milwaukee Bucks

Enough is enough, Hakim Warrick. I’m done drafting you in fantasy hoops, I’m done singing your praises, I won’t predict anymore late-season upticks in production. You are, as they say, dead to me. It’s always something holding you back: poor defense, rotation issues, “the man”. This year, that something is a 22-year-old Turk named Ersan who stole your spot in the starting lineup just a few games into the season.

Actually, stole isn’t the right word: the young man has earned it.

A second-round pick back in ’05, 6-10 forward Ersan Ilyasova spent his first year in the States playing for the D-League’s Tulsa 66ers, then made his somewhat premature NBA debut with the Bucks during the 2006-07 season, playing in 66 games and posting modest pers of 6.1 points and 2.9 boards in just under 15 minutes a night. After a few seasons abroad as a member of FC Barcelona, Ilyasova returned this year and has been something of a jack-of-all-trades for Scott Skiles’ improved Bucks.

Ersan Ilyasova Photo Credit: Icon SMI

He shoots threes (1.2 makes per), hits the glass (currently amongst the East’s top-20 forwards in boards with 7.3), plays solid defense, and generally does the little things it takes to win without trying to do too much–always important if you want to get regular minutes on a Skiles-coached team. (Are you listening, Hakim?). In 11 games as a starter, Ilyasova has averaged 12.4 points (46% FG), 8 boards (2.5 offensive), 1.2 assists, 1.1 triples, and 1 steal.

Brandon Jennings is the main reason why more than 43 people are tuning into Bucks’ games this year for the first time in a long time, but glue contributions from guys like Ilyasova, Carlos Delfino, and Luke Ridnour are a big part of the team’s early-season renaissance.

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies

He’s been slumping a bit of late, but I’ve already made my case for Pau’s widdle brother as one of this year’s most surprising fantasy hoops breakouts and I’m sticking to it. So if you don’t mind, I’ll defer to my earlier, fantasy-slanted analysis here (with updated stats!). Ladies and gentlemen, meet Marc Gasol:

Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular through the first month of the season. All of his statistical measurables are up—way up—compared to his rookie season of a year ago, and there’s no reason to think there’s any end in sight to his upper-tier production.

Through his first 20 games, the 7-1 Gasol has posted impressive per-game averages of 14.6 points (on 61% FG, third best in the NBA), 9.7 boards, 1.6 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2.2 assists, and a respectable 73% from the free-throw line. That’s made him the fifth most-valuable center in fantasy hoops, and he’s helped his Grizzlies to a… well, the Grizzlies are still pretty middling at 8 – 12, but Gasol is clearly doing what he can to make this team competitive again.

There’s little of consequence behind Gasol on the Grizzlies’ big-man depth chart, so expect the seven-footer to maintain his 35+ minutes per-game average as the season wears on. That should give him ample opportunity to finish it out with double-double averages in points and rebounds; I’d love to see him keep those steals up over 1 per, and to take the next step towards fantasy dominance by upping his blocks to 2 per. Either way, we’re looking at one of the biggest bargains of the year.

I’ll add that maybe, just maybe, that long-maligned deal that sent Pau to the Lakers for a handful of castoffs, two first-round picks, and the draft rights to Marc won’t turn out to be a total wash for Memphis after all. (Settle down, I said maybe.)

By Brian Spencer

Last week each of the NBA Writers of the Roundtable named their pick(s) for this season’s early fantasy surprises, with Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol taking the honors for most mentions. As hosts of this edition, ETB posed the following question to our esteemed colleagues:

Upon their return to the hardwood, who will have the most positive impact for fantasy teams this season: Allen Iverson or Tracy McGrady?

Joining Me at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:

- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk
- Erik Ong, Points in the Paint

ETB’s Pick:

Neither player carries much interest for us, and as it stands right now, neither seems capable of sustaining whatever impact they have in the first few weeks of their return. Iverson clearly has more potential to contribute since he’ll step right into the starting lineup on Monday; meanwhile, McGrady’s role with the Rockets remains in limbo, and there’s still no definitive timetable for his return. He seems just as likely to be traded at the deadline (expiring contract) as he does to suit up again for Houston.

At their best, both of these former All-Stars are multi-category fantasy contributors: Iverson can boost your PTS, FTM, ASTS, and STLS, while McGrady can basically do it all. The keyword in both cases is “can”, since neither has exactly been at the top of their game for some time now. And while some experts are drooling over Iverson’s return to Philly (Rotoworld, for example, today said that AI “absolutely should not be left on any fantasy waiver wires right now”), it’s important to have some perspective on what your team’s strengths are and which categories you’re trying to win on a week-to-week basis.

Iverson is probably going to score points in bunches, at least until Lou Williams is back, but in all likelihood he’s also going to kill your FG%, FT%, and TOs (and on a related note, he could very well hurt Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and Elton Brand’s numbers). McGrady suffers from similar ineffiency, so before you go gaga over either player, take a step back and consider the positives and negatives.

Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld

If I had complete freedom of choice, I personally prefer to avoid both players. Both Iverson and McGrady have huge questions marks and red flags attached to their names, and I’d easily let someone else deal with the headaches.

But if I had to choose between the two, I’d go with McGrady. I am definitely not a big T-Mac fan, but it sounds like McGrady is slowly but surely working his way back into playing shape. And once he is back on the floor and ready to roll, no one has ever doubted his ability to put up points. And the Rockets need all the scoring they can get with Yao out. And if Houston chooses to trade him, even better. As long as he gets playing time, he’ll be out to prove that he is worthy of a decent contract next summer. That is the best motivator.

My problem with Iverson is I question whether or not he will ever suit up again. If AI isn’t offered a contract by Philadelphia, then it really may be curtains on Iverson’s legendary career. Consider the unique circumstances: Lou Williams is now sidelined up to two months with a fractured jaw. As a result, Philly is forced into starting 19-year-old Jrue Holiday, a rookie who played mostly shooting guard as a freshman at UCLA last year.

And besides filling the obvious desire for an established scoring PG on the floor, Iverson would also contribute immensely to the Sixers other glaring need: a box office draw. The Sixers are desperate on multiple fronts – they need a veteran PG and they need to sell tickets. If Philly doesn’t want him now, who will sign him? And when? Lastly, AI hasn’t even played that well when he has been on the court. He averaged 17.5 points per game in 2008-2009 and just 12.3 PPG in limited action with the Grizz last month. I’ll pass…

The McGrady vs. Iverson debate continues after the break…

Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends

To be honest, neither option attracts me as they both come with so much baggage. Allen Iverson is having a hell of a time accepting that his best days have passed him by. He can still score, but he’s a shell of his former self. His assists and steals have also went down the past few years.

Tracy McGrady can still produce if his knee will allow him to. With Yao Ming out for the year, McGrady will take it upon himself to carry the load. Unfortunately, that may not be the best thing for the Rockets now. Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, and Carl Landry have established themselves as good young stars. If McGrady comes in shooting 15+ shots per game, he would disrupt their flow.

I reluctantly take McGrady in this debate. He should score at a similar clip as Iverson, but will likely have more assists and rebounds. He does shoot poorly from the floor, so you’ll have to be able to be able to absorb that.

Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk

AI WILL put up some numbers in Philadelphia. A healthy AI would be expected to play everyday, and with the injury to Lou Williams he would get a ton of minutes. Just how he would gel with his new teammates remains to be seen, but we would expect the Al we all know to reappear in the City of Brotherly Love–that being the tough little dude that throws up tons of shots and now in his more mature state also dishes the rock. You could argue that he could step in and be the team’s number one scoring option from the start.

McGrady is suffering from a bum knee and a bum back; his return could be weeks away. If and when T-Mac returns we do not see him doing much of anything. In fact, last year a less-than-100% McGrady attempted to make a comeback in what turned out to be a nightmare situation for fantasy basketball owners. It was decided that he would not play back-to-back games and would be routinely rested, thus making him unusable in head-to-head leagues. Moreover, at least from what we saw last year, McGrady’s knee and back injuries had sapped him of all his explosiveness. While he did have his spurts, the Rockets now have a number of scorers, including the athletic Trevor Ariza. We don’t see much coming from McGrady this year and see him as having significantly less upside than Iverson.

So, to answer the question – Iverson will have a bigger fantasy basketball impact this season. Given the injury to Lou Williams and the Sixers offensive issues AI should put up decent numbers. As for McGrady, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk seriously doubts his comeback ability. It appears the injuries have taken there toll on the once elite T-Mac.

Erik Ong, Points in the Paint and Give Me The Rock

Overall, they’re both old and over the hill, but still probably have a bit left in their respective tanks to chip in some decent numbers.

A big factor to consider in answering the question is addressing where they will be playing. Based on that, I will have to make certain assumptions. For now, let’s assume that Tracy will start his fantasy season for his owners in the Houston Rockets, a team that appears to not want nor need his contributions. Iverson, on the other hand, looks like he’ll be signed by a team that desperately needs a PG/SG to start for them. At this point, that team looks like the Philadelphia 76ers. They Sixers appear to need a PG, on the surface, but in the end Andre Iguodala, Will Green, and Jrue Holiday can all keep the ship afloat while waiting on Louis Williams to return from injury.

I project less conflict with A.I. sliding into a starter’s job in Philly than T-Mac playing alongside Trevor Ariza. I will have to give this one to Iverson temporarily, at least until T-Mac’s contract is offloaded to another team… but then again that would be another story altogether.

T-Mac really wants to play basketball, but there are fears that he will come back too soon and re-injure his body. Allen Iverson just really wants to start, and is not coming back from any serious injuries. McGrady’s spirit may be willing, but his flesh is historically weak. Iverson came off a lesser injury, but it’s his team spirit (or lack thereof) that should be in question. Tracy and his battle-weary body, for all its worth, will be able to give your fantasy team more AST, 3PTM, and STL. Iverson will end up giving you more PTS, FT%, and *GP* (games played).

Basketball is a team sport and Tracy McGrady is and has always been the better “team player”: that is what will be the deal breaker for Iverson and his bloated ego. Thinking more about the TEAM and less about whether or not you will frickin’ start or not is what will end up defining who can keep more minutes on the floor. So, I would have to say Tracy McGrady will have the more positive fantasy impact because there is no “I”(verson) in “team.”

Throughout this NBA season we’ll be sitting down with an esteemed group of NBA writers and bloggers to pontificate over various fantasy hoops topics, such as which Golden State Warriors are most likely to continue suffering under Don Nelson’s tyrannical rule, how much fantasy impact over-the-hill vets like Allen Iverson and Tracy McGrady can still have, etc.

Each of the participating writers, below, will take turns hosting, but a big thanks is in order to Ryan Lester of Lester’s Legends for getting this thing off the ground. Without further ado…

Sitting at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:

- Your Dear Friends at Empty the Bench
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk
- Nels, Give Me the Rock
- Jon, Bleacher Report
- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Erik Ong, Points in the Paint

This Week’s Fantasy Hoops Topic:

Looking at the season’s early surprise players, which one or two do you feel will continue to put up big fantasy numbers this year?

Brian Spencer, Empty the Bench: Drafted on average 120th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues (behind guys like Tyson Chandler, Shaquille O’Neal, and, yes, Yao Ming), Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular through the first month of the season. All of his statistical measurables are up—way up—compared to his rookie season of a year ago, and there’s no reason to think there’s any end in sight to his upper-tier production.

Through his first 16 games, the 7-1 Gasol has posted impressive per-game averages of 15.4 points (on 63% FG, best in the NBA), 10.8 boards, 1.6 blocks, 1.1 steals, 2.1 assists, and a respectable 75% from the free-throw line. That’s made him the second most-valuable center in fantasy hoops, behind just Chris Bosh, and he’s helped his Grizzlies to a… well, the Grizzlies are still pretty terrible at 6 – 10 heading into their Sunday night matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers, but Gasol is clearly doing what he can to make this team competitive again.

There’s little of consequence behind Gasol on the Grizzlies’ big-man depth chart (sorry, Hasheem Thabeet doesn’t count), so expect the seven-footer to maintain his 35+ minutes per-game average as the season wears on. That should give him ample opportunity to finish it out with double-double averages in points and rebounds; I’d love to see him keep those steals up over 1 per, and to take the next step towards fantasy dominance by upping his blocks to 2 per. Either way, we’re looking at one of the biggest bargains of the year.

For the record, I drafted Gasol 157th overall (middle of the 16th round) in the ETB fantasy hoops league, one pick after Jamario Moon. Gasol is currently ranked 7th overall. (Updated since publication to reflect recent performances.)

For more insight into some of the season’s early fantasy hoops surprises, read the roundtable discussion in its entirety over at Lester’s Legends.

The 2009-10 season is only one week old, so it’s way too early to look at any trends or statistics with a discerning eye, but it’s just so damn fun! Here are some numbers from this young season that you probably didn’t know.

- What do the Knicks’ Danilo Gallinari, the 76ers’ Louis Williams, the Rockets’ Trevor Ariza, the Clippers’ Chris Kaman, and the Wizards’ Andray Blatche have in common? I’ll give you a hint: it’s actually something good. They are all averaging over 20 ppg. The shooting Gallinari (6 of 12 from deep per game) was drafted for is happening, Williams’ speed benefits Philadelphia’s up-tempo pace (7th best 97.5 possessions per game), Ariza is shooting out of his mind (52.4% from 3), Kaman is receiving more touches with Griffin out and lots of court time (41 mpg), and Blatche is hitting an absurd 72% of his shots inside. Who’s most likely to stay above 20 for the entire 82? Without a doubt it’s Gallinari: he is a picture-perfect shooter whose 47% FG and 50% 3FG are both slightly above his rookie numbers, so it’s easy to see them remaining fairly intact on the run-and-gun Knicks.

- Why do draft pundits continue to value players with height (like Thabeet) over players with a history of production, like Denver rook Ty Lawson? Even with crazy quickness, 47% 3FG, and a fantastic 6.6-1.9 A/TO rate in college, teams didn’t want the UNC point guard because he’s only 5-11. The Nuggets happily took the 18th pick off of Minnesota’s hands on draft night and promptly made him Chauncey Billups’ backup. How’s the short but productive former-Tar Heel doing? Playing 22 minutes off the bench each game, Lawson is shooting 50% overall and 40% from deep. He also has 10 assists to only 2 turnovers, and he’s corralled at least 1 steal in each of his three games. Don’t forget he was the catalyst to Denver’s opening-night victory over Utah, scoring 7 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter while also dishing out 6 assists. And where would a potential draftee with Lawson’s quickness be selected if he was 4 inches taller, but was a streaky shooter at best and had a reputation for making poor decisions in the half-court? He’d be the #1 pick.

Ty Lawson photo credit: Icon SMI

- If I had to guess which rookie would make the best run at a triple-double, I’d probably be looking at Tyreke Evans (great build, some PG skills), Stephen Curry (can shoot, pass, and steal the rock), or DeJuan Blair (if you count offensive and defensive rebounds separately). I was way off. Brandon Jennings, the first-year player I consider the most overrated, went for a very Rajon Rondo-esque 17, 9, and 9 IN HIS FIRST NBA GAME. Could he actually do it? Those 9 boards will probably be a season-high, so I doubt it. I’m still putting my money on Evans as the rookie most likely to accomplish the feat.

-Which 6-11 forward/center who averaged only 4.2 ppg in 2008-09 is currently the league’s most dangerous 3-point weapon? Phoenix’s Channing Frye, that’s who. After languishing on Portland’s bench for the past two years (check out his blog, one of the best player blogs in the league), the Suns decided to add the quick center to their starting frontcourt for a measly $2 million. Their up-and-down pace plays right into Frye’s hands, especially since he’s always been a decent spot-up shooter. Now he’s able to hit wide-open 3′s on the fast break as defenses collapse into the paint, and no one is going to contest his outside shot anyway. The results are insane: he’s hitting the second-most 3′s per game (4.3) and connecting on the best percentage among the 50 players who attempt at least 4 per game (65%).

Five more statistical trends from the opening games, after the jump …

- It’s not too surprising that Blair is leading all rookies with 8.3 rpg even though he’s 6-7 and only plays 20 minutes a night. What fans probably don’t know is that Blair has a white clone over in Sacramento. Fellow first-year player Jon Brockman is also a fireplug of a power forward (6-7, 255), also averaging great rebounds per minute (4.7 in 12), and also shooting the ball well (63% to Blair’s 71%). Brockman is actually outperforming Blair in Blair’s specialty—the offensive glass—snagging 2.3 orpg to Blair’s 2.7, but in 8 minutes less clock per game.

-In case you missed it, LeBron James is not among the top10 scorers in the league. His shooting percentage is up where it always is (49%) and his 3-point shooting continues to improve (39%), but he’s only taking 17.5 shots per night, considerably less than the 21 he’s averaged over his first six seasons. His unselfishness is resulting in a career-high 8.8 apg, good for 5th in the NBA.

- Brandon Roy is averaging 27 ppg, but it’s sure not by being consistent. He’s the only player to have scored in the teens, 20′s, 30′s, and 40′s so far, putting up anywhere from 16 against the Thunder to 42 against the Rockets. Similarly, Al Harrington‘s scoring totals go 15, 17, 42, and Kobe Bryant has put up 20, 33, and 41. On the other end of the spectrum, Dwyane Wade has three games between 25 and 32, shooting 40-something percent on a steady 19 to 22 shots in each one.

- Toronto’s Jose Calderon must have a broken finger on his shooting hand that the Raptors aren’t reporting. Last year, the Spaniard shot 41% from behind the arc and an NBA record 98.1% from the charity stripe, missing only 3 of 154 freebies. This year he’s 1-7 from 3-point land and he’s already missed 4 free throws in 13 attempts. Soon he’ll be seeking out Dwight Howard for advice.

Jose Calderon Photo Credit: Icon SMI

-Most encouraging yet disappointing line: Memphis rookie Hasheem Thabeet, my daily pick for biggest bust in the 2009 Draft, grabbed 6 rebounds and blocked 4 shots in less than 12 minutes on Sunday against Denver’s loaded frontline. He also hit his only shot. Unfortunately, Thabeet didn’t put up better numbers because he fouled out after playing 11 minutes and 51 seconds.

As a bit of a Big East follower, I routinely told friends over the past year that Thabeet (UConn) would turn out to be just another Roy Hibbert (Georgetown): a big stiff who could block some shots. After Hibbert tore up the Orlando Summer League and has shown improvement so far this year (7.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg), it looks like the Grizzlies can only hope for that to be an accurate comparison some day.

Zachariah Blott is a dish best served cold.

It’s the summer’s biggest garage sale, and everything must go. We’ve got power forwards with 20-10 resumes, we’ve got lunatics with all-world talent, we’ve got prima donna scorers, we’ve got tweeners with Swiss Army skill sets, we’ve got recent NBA champions, we’ve got kids long on talent but short on heart, and we’ve got yesterday’s superstars aging less than gracefully. We also have a couple of key free agents who could pay big dividends en route to a title.

Every summer the NBA’s free agent market has it all – it’s just never entirely clear who is what.

When it comes to free agency in the NBA the operative words are always caveat emptor. There are going to be a few contracts signed this summer that look pretty foolish in a year or two, there always are. Several of these guys will be overpaid, some will get injured, some will be outright busts and some will be happy to simply cash their fat paychecks until the early offseason rolls around every year.

It’s tempting to see every potential free agent as that missing piece you need to make your team more competitive, but remember: with UFAs there’s always a reason their respective teams let them hit the open market…

Carlos Boozer, PF, 27 Years Old

Carlos Boozer has been the most talked about free agent of the summer, and with good cause. He’s going to opt out and there simply aren’t many legitimate power forwards in the league with his offensive prowess and rebounding skills. The broad-shouldered big man is a beast around the basket with a strong face-up game who will bring a baseline of 20 points and 10 boards with decent passing skills wherever he goes.

There are few teams that couldn’t use that.

Still, Boozer is not without his blemishes. His tweener height and lack of mobility make him a pretty mediocre defender, especially when asked to play out of position at center. While he thrives in a half-court offense, he would be woefully miscast in an up-tempo offense. He’s also a headcase with a me-first attitude and a history of back-stabbing. Many question his interest in anything beyond maintaining his own stat line on the court and bottom line off of it.

*UPDATE*: It appears that Mr. Boozer has decided to reconsider this whole “free agent” thing – or at least put it off for another year. Carlos declined to opt out of his current deal, much to the chagrin of Jazz fans everywhere, guaranteeing him $12.7 mill for the coming season. After this development, and Kyle Korver’s decision to play out his deal for $5.2 mill this year, the Jazz suddenly have a lot less room to maneuver or work to aggressively retain the services of Paul Millsap.

Ben Gordon, SG, 26 Years Old

Gordon is the best shooter, and by far the best shooting guard, in the unrestricted class. The man can fill it up, and at as just 26 he’ll be in his prime for the length of any contract he signs. He’s very streaky, which probably means he would best be served as the second or third option on a very strong team, but there are few pure shooters as electric as Gordon when he’s hitting. Gordon has also proven himself to be clutch and capable of taking over in crunch time, a quality that’s hard to put a dollar value on.

Like with Boozer, though, Gordon has a reputation as a selfish player who can be a less than ideal teammate. Gordon turned down a five-year, $50 million deal in 2007 and a six-year, roughly $54 million deal in 2008 making it difficult to guess just how valuable he fancies himself – but it’s likely too much.

*UPDATE*: Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Ben Gordon has agreed to sign with the Detroit Pistons. According to The Woj, “Gordon will receive a five-year contract worth around $55 million.”

Ron Artest, F, 29 Years Old

It’s been a few years since “Snake Eggs” went berserk in the Palace, and he’s genuinely attempted to tone his act down since then, but there is still no scarier man in shorts and a tank top on television. And that’s a good thing. He’s a genuine intimidator with incredible competitiveness. Artest is all about intensity, and he brings it in spades on both ends of the floor. You can question his mentality or his off-court actions or his on-court decision-making, but you cannot question his defensive abilities or desire to win. The man is a bona fide difference maker, and there aren’t many of those in our league.

That desire to win, coupled with the questionably psychiatric report, has led Artest to sign some fairly modest deals. He won’t command top dollar, but in the right system and utilized correctly he can be one of the best players in the NBA.

“Snake Eggs” Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Trevor Ariza, SF, 24 Years Old

Mr. Ariza is one of my absolute favorite free agents this summer. He’s one of the youngest kids out there, his natural ability measures up with anybody available, he’s got tremendous work ethic, he’s constantly working on and improving his game and he’s already proven himself to be a winner. Oh, and on top of all that he’s a pretty good basketball player, too. Ariza is the rare defender who is both a strong man defender and an excellent vulture in the passing lanes. On offense he takes it to the rack hard and in the last year, especially in the 2009 postseason, he’s turned himself into a strong outside shooter.

Whoever signs Ariza, and it looks like it will be the Lakers, is getting an excellent, young, versatile small forward for the foreseeable future.

Charlie Villanueva, F, 24 Years Old

Charlie V has as much offensive skill as any player on this list. He’s downright silky for his size and can literally score in every possible way. Unfortunately, he seems to have gone to the Rasheed Wallace School of Post Play: despite standing 6-11, Villanueva is always loathe to bang inside, preferring to drift to the perimeter and take lower-percentage threes. Charlie’s defense is also suspect and it’s hard to figure if he’s better being physically overmatched as a power forward or out-quicked as a small forward. The answer is likely a little of both, as any team that tries to shoehorn the long man into a given role will end up disappointed, but a team willing to build around and work with his skills could reap huge dividends.

*UPDATE*: Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Charlie Villanueava will join former UConn teammate Ben Gordon in Detroit. According to The Woj, “Villanueva’s five-year deal is expected to be worth about $35 million.”

Seven more elite UFAs and the best of the rest, after the jump…

Lamar Odom, F, 29 Years Old

I was hesitant to even put Odom on this list because he seems almost certain to re-sign with the Lake Show, but he’s proven his value and versatility over the years and belongs here. You need rebounding? Lamar can do that. You need a forward who can handle the ball? Lamar can do that, too. You need some outside shooting? Hey, Lamar is happy to help out. You need versatile inside-out defense? Sure thing, boss.

There’s next to nothing he can’t do on the court – and yet he’s humble enough to this point in his career to not only do just what is asked of him, but to also not ask for a massive contract to do it. Odom deserved that ring. And a new deal. The kid has grown up.

Andre Miller, PG, 33 Years Old

Miller is the definition of a steady, crafty veteran point guard. His game has never been about sheer athleticism, which is why being 33 is less of a concern than it would be for other players. He has shown signs of slowing down on defense, but he’s still capable there while remaining an excellent passer and rebounder at the point.

The most likely scenario is Miller re-signs with Philly for three or four years and tutors Jrue Holiday for a season or two before ceding starting duties to the youngster, but any team looking to shore up their point play (Minnesota, perhaps?) should give the veteran Miller a long, hard look.

Here’s a fun idea: Miller, deciding he needs that elusive ring to define his career, signs on the cheap with the Lakers and provides them the point presence they currently lack…

Lamar Odom Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Shawn Marion, F, 31 Years Old

How is it even possible this guy is already 31? Doesn’t seem long ago that he was a youngster showing up in highlights on TNT as Kenny Smith gleefully championed his Matrix nickname. In any event, since his mid-season departure from Phoenix last season, The Player Formerly Known as Matrix has proven himself to be more of a system guy than anybody expected. His numbers in Miami and Toronto since the move pale in comparison to what the quietly disgruntled Marion was able to put up with Steve Nash finding him for open looks on a nightly basis.

None of that means Marion can’t be an effective combo forward in the right situation, though, if he’s willing to sign a modest deal. He can still get up and down the floor with ease, finishes well, plays opportunistic defense, and stretches opposing defenses with a decent outside shot.

Hedo Turkoglu, SF, 30 Years Old

Few players used the postseason to improve their summer stock as well as Turkoglu did, showing up and performing well on the NBA’s biggest stage. He’s a combo forward that can handle the ball, play the point on occasion, hit jumpers from anywhere, and isn’t afraid to take and make big shots.

All of that said, he’s also getting on in years, a defensive liability no matter where he plays, and a mediocre rebounder for a man his height. Those shortcomings, coupled with poor efficiency and advanced age, don’t make Hedo extremely attractive to me – but somebody is going to overpay.

Mike Bibby, PG, 31 Years Old

Bibby isn’t a long-term solution at the point, and he hasn’t ever really been your prototypical one, but he’s a seasoned vet that shoots well from outside and can run an offense. The Jamal Crawford trade (he used to play point, remember) seems to signal the end of Bibby’s tenure in the ATL. A team in need of perimeter shooting and a stopgap at the top of the key could do a lot worse.

Hidayet Turkoglu Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Mehmet Okur, PF/C, 30 Years Old

It appears Okur will opt out of his contract with the Jazz, leaving $9 million on the table. I can understand wanting to strike now before he gets any older, suffers an injury, or is exposed as the softie he is sans Boozer, but if a team ponies up more than $9 million a year for his services they’re going to regret it.

Memo is one of the best outside shooting big men in the league, but a center he is not. There’s more to being a center than scoring, grabbing a couple of rebounds and being 6-11. Okur can stroke it from outside, but that usually means he leaves his teammates on an island in terms of rebounding (which has also served to inflate Boozer’s and Millsap’s numbers). 1.7 offensive boards a game doesn’t cut it, big fella. On defense, Okur doesn’t give anybody second thoughts about taking it to the basket and he simply can’t guard bruisers down low.

*UPDATE*: Ditto Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver (above); Okur has picked up his player option and will remain in Utah for another season. Okur will make $9 million this season.

Rasheed Wallace, PF/C, 34 Years Old

‘Sheed doesn’t have too many effective years left, but the affable and volatile vet still has the skills to be that final piece to a championship puzzle. He’s got the resume and the playoff experience. He also remains one of the most crafty and effective post defenders in the league – just ask Dwight Howard, few have shut down the big fella with man defense as effectively the last few seasons. And while his days of banging in the post are long gone, Wallace can still hit the open jumper outside and he has a knack for hitting dagger threes. He may seem like an unusual pick here, but Wallace could come cheap and be that final piece for a championship contender like Cleveland, San Antonio or Orlando. A one- or two-year deal for a team with title aspirations could pay huge dividends.

Jason Kidd, PG, 36: Washed up, but could be a strong vet/tutor on a young contender.
Allen Iverson, G, 34: I made my feelings on AI known here. He’s not a winner.
Brandon Bass, PF, 24: Quality, young, energetic reserve PF – but undersized.
Chris Anderson, PF/C, 31: Fantastic spark plug and shot-blocker off the bench.
Rodney Carney, G/F, 25: Lanky, athletic and young outside shooter.
Zaza Pachulia, PF/C, 25: Mediocre backup center who can score off the bench.
Antonio McDyess, PF, 34: Efficient, tough scorer and rebounder past his prime.
Gerald Green, G/F, 23: All-world athlete with a dime-store head on his shoulders.
Sean May, PF, 25: Talented and big (very big), but unable to stay healthy.
Flip Murray, G, 29: High-volume scorer who can handle the rock.
Dahntay Jones, G, 28: Strong defender with a chip on his shoulder, but no offense.
Walter Herrmann, F, 30: Scorer with good size, and locks, but little else.
Von Wafer, G, 23: Exciting young kid who can fill it up.
Marquis Daniels, G/F, 27: Does a little of everything, nothing exceptionally.
Rasho Nesterovic, C, 32: Perfectly sub-par, but serviceable, backup big man.
Grant Hill, SF, 36: Extremely efficient, smart player who still has a lot to offer.
Bobby Jackson, G, 36: Sub-par scorer with quick hands who can still play D.
Drew Gooden, PF, 27: Lazy big man that can rebound and score, but not an impact player.
Ime Udoka, SG, 31: Decent defender that can also hit the outside shot.
Anthony Parker, SG, 34: A potential bargain, and short-term starter, that can fill it up.
Anderson Varejao, PF/C, 26: Sideshow Bob plays D, flops and rebounds. That has its value.

Related Reading:
- The Summer’s Second-Tier FAs to Keep and Eye On
- What Comes Next for Hedo Turkoglu?
- Is Allen Iverson Still a Difference Maker?
- Welcome to the Conference Finals, Lamar

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