Empty the Bench

Two of baseball’s best starting pitchers appear to be progressing well and both should be back in early May according to today’s reports. Chris Caprenter was a preseason candidate for the NL’s Cy Young award before being derailed after his first start of the season with arthiritis and a ‘mild impingement’ in his throwing elbow. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that after starting a throwing program this week, Carpenter’s arm felt good and he didn’t experience any swelling according to trainer Barry Weinberg.

After Felix Hernandez’s first two starts, he was looking like a legitimate threat to Johan Santana for the AL’s Cy Young. King Felix had given up no runs, struck out 12 in the opener and then pitched a complete-game shutout in Boston. Then Minnesota came to town and Felix removed himself after just two outs in the first inning with tightness in his throwing elbow. Since then, the baseball world has been waiting with baited breath, hoping one of the best prospects in the last decade would be OK. According to John Hickey at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Hernandez threw on the side before Wednesday’s game and came out of it fine. Hernandez will throw a bullpen session this weekend and is scheduled to start in Yankee Stadium on May 4, the first day he’s eligible to come off the disabled list.

We saw the likes of Francisco Liriano, Jared Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito (He counts) and Justin Verlander make huge impacts as rookies in every fantasy league around the country in 2006. Daisuke Matsuzaka was drafted among the top 20 pitchers in your league, but who are the undrafted fantasy rookies that will help teams bring home the trophy in 2007? The first may be arriving this week. Wunderkind Phil Hughes will get the starting nod for the Yankees tomorrow, and just three weeks into the season he represents the first call up who could have the type of impact the aforementioned pitchers did last season. None of the guys featured below have had a chance to contribute at the Major League level yet, but given the opportunity I expect each of these four to be ownable in all fantasy formats.

Of course, with such unproven products these suggestions come with a caveat of caution- don’t go dropping Erik Bedard for them just yet. If you haven’t done so, you may want to pause now, put in a waiver claim for Hughes (He was entered into the Yahoo! system last night), before checking out the rest of ETB’s top pitching prospects:

Read the rest of this article »

It wasn’t much–two singles in four at bats with an RBI–but for new Detroit Tigers DH Gary Sheffield, his performance last night in Los Angeles against the Angels left him hopeful that his dreadful start to the season could soon be a thing of the past.

After the Yankees sent him to Detroit for a package of minor-league prospects (headlined by pitcher Humberto Sanchez, who is now out for the year and will require Tommy John surgery), Sheffield was cited as the power hitter that would make Jim Leyland’s dangerous lineup even deadlier. Like proven sluggers around the league, however, the vet hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start fans were hoping for; going into tonight’s game, he’s batting a paltry .143 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and a .206 SLG. In a word, ugh.

He’s repeatedly insisted that his slow start has nothing to do with the injured wrist that kept him on the sideline for most of the 2006 season in New York, and that it’s “all between the ears.” Leyland, Sheffield, and his teammates think he’s about to turn a corner:

“I felt like myself,” he announced, after his 2-for-4 night. “When I feel like this, I feel like there are big things to come.”

If this was the game that turned Sheffield from ice-cold into about-to-get-red-hot, there’s nothing that could be more important for the Tigers. “He’s one of those guys that when he gets going, watch out,” said Sean Casey. “He’ll get 20 hits in 25 at-bats, and they’ll all be scud rockets.”

Manager Jim Leyland saw it in batting practice, and again when Sheffield went up the middle with every swing in Monday’s game. Everyone noticed the second-inning laser Sheffield hit, the one that fortunately didn’t hit anyone on its way to center field. “He’s getting real close,” Leyland said. “You can tell. He’s almost there. He’s going to break loose. There’s no doubt in my mind.”

MLB fantasy players out there would be foolish to give up on Sheffield this early. Sure, he’s no young buck anymore, but we’re talking about a guy who hit 34 HRs, 123 RBIs, and batted .291 just two short years ago. Once he figures out his swing and settles into his role as the designated hitter, there’s going to be ample opportunities for offensive production in his three or four slot in the lineup. Remember, he’s batting behind rising-star Curtis Granderson (.307, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .342 OBP) and early AL-batting title contender Placido Polanco (.358, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .391 OBP). Now’s a great time to float some lowball trade offers while his value is the lowest it’ll be all season.

During Charlie Manuel’s tenure with the Philadelphia Phillies, slow starts have been par for the course. Maybe that was the problem. It’s happened each year he’s been there: they were 1-6 earlier, and now sit at 3-10 to open 2007 (their worst start since 1997). Well, Manuel is none too pleased about it. During postgame interviews after a particularly embarrassing loss to the Mets last night, Manuel lost it.

Howard Eskin, a radio personality from the Philadelphia area, was pressing Manuel about his inability to get angry and motivate the players. That’s when Manuel told Eskin that he would demonstrate his ability to get angry, in the privacy of his manager’s office. Manuel darted off the podium, inviting Eskin to follow. Eskin met Manuel’s challenge, and Charlie could be heard screaming, “We’re going to win!” around the locker room and beyond. Later, during Freddy Garcia’s interview cameras suddenly moved away from that night’s starter back to Manuel as he could be heard yelling more at Eskin such as, “I been growed up!”, “I grew up a long fucking time ago, you asshole!” and “What’s it to you any fucking way?” Classy.

Manuel – nicknamed “Red Devil” when he played in Japan because of his explosive temper – challenged his questioner to meet him in Manuel’s office, where, Manuel promised, he would display temper.

And, there, Manuel did, for several minutes, loudly enough to be heard from 20 yards away through closed doors. Manuel’s point: He does get mad, and he resented what he considers the radio host’s continual unfair criticism of Manuel.

After that confrontation, Manuel, on his way through the clubhouse, resumed hollering at the radio personality when they locked eyes. A Phillies coach and a media relations representative ushered Manuel, spewing profanity, out the back of the clubhouse.

Then this news came out today: Manuel is moving Brett Myers from the front of the rotation to middle relief. He’ll be the primary setup man for closer Tom Gordon. You read that right, the Phillies are moving their opening day starter and staff ace to middle relief. I’m having trouble coming up with any precedent for this kind of move. Just two weeks into the season it seems shockingly early to press the panic button, especially with a head-scratcher of this magnitude. I mean, the guy has given up some runs, granted, but he had a solid spring and he’s been their best starting pitcher for the last two seasons. Did I mention he started opening day?!

Even though his ERA is sky high, he’s only had three starts and in those has recorded 19 Ks in 15.1 innings. I really don’t know what to make of the move, I’m befuddled, but for Brett’s fantasy owners and Philly fans everywhere we just have to hope this insanity doesn’t last. Scratch that, the insanity can stay. I like that. I just want Myers back in the rotation.

The Major League Baseball season is long and filled with peaks and valleys for every player. It’s a six month marathon. I’ll be the first to advise any fantasy MLB player not to take the first few weeks seriously. There’s just too many variables and too much randomness in any given baseball game or series to accurately weight the results of a given game or series. Michael Young’s batting average is still moving up and down nearly 50 points each game. Carlos Lee quadrupled his home rune total and doubled his RBIs in Friday’s Herculean performance.

Still, it would be equally foolish to completely ignore the evidence at hand. We can learn things from limited samples, even just two weeks. With that in mind, ETB tries to assess the early returns on MLB pitchers to determine if the results are or are not indicative . It’s a very sound strategy to keep 10-15% of your roster fluid all season in order to, and a bulk of these players will be factor into the decision making you do with that portion of your roster.

Read the rest of this article »

A few big names have already been injured in the first week of the season. Obviously, Chris Carpenter headlines the list. Of the injuries sustained in the first week, he is the biggest name and has the most disconcerting prognosis. The St. Louis Cardinals originally said that his next start would be pushed back three days and he would be pitching tonight, but an elbow injury is about as precarious as they come for pitchers so fantasy owners weren’t exactly comforted. Sure enough, the right hander has been placed on the 15-day disabled list (retroactive to April 2nd) with what is being called, “moderate arthritis and a mild impingement.” That doesn’t sound good. Why Carpenter didn’t receive a the MRI that gave this diagnosis right away is beyond me, but the damage has been done.

If you are a fantasy owner and relying on his services to anchor your staff, the worst thing you can do now is panic and trade him for pennies on the dollar. The season is six months long and all baseball leagues should have a DL, so for the time being stash him away, check out or sleeper pitcher list, and grab a guy like Zack Greinke, Boof Bonser, Rich Hill, Daniel Cabrera, John Maine, Adam Loewen or the like. However, if you can find somebody to offer you slightly below market value, pull the trigger and let the whole situation be somebody else’s headache. For those of you who do not have Carpenter, other owner’s losses can always be an astute owner’s gain. Put an offer in right now with one of your good-not-great players, and see if you can’t buy Chris on the cheap. The current best case scenario is that Carpenter returns at the start of May.

In other injury news, Hanley Ramirez was pulled from Sunday’s game versus the Phillies in the first inning after straining his hamstring. I was actually watching the game, and it was a pretty minor thing. He just took a bad step running out a ground ball and limped off the field. I’m a big fan of this kid, so hopefully this won’t be a lingering issue. With a player whose fantasy value is almost entirely tied to speed and explosiveness, you never like to see their name mentioned in the same sentence with the word ‘hamstring’. Fortunately this looks minor. “It was pretty tight, like a cramp,” Ramirez said. “It’s way better. I’m OK. I’m going to try to be in there Monday.” Hanley was held out yesterday, but is expected to return for tonight’s game according to Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez.

Victor Martinez was originally scheduled to go on the 15-day DL, but since the last four Indians games have been postponed he may be able to remain on the regular roster and wait out his strained left quad. That said, V-Mart is at least a week away from returning. The postponed games were a real blessing for fantasy owners, as the games will now be made up later in the season when he should be fully recovered from this minor malady.

Around the rest of the league:
There was a Chone Figgins sighting today. He was re-examined and cleared to begin range-of-motion exercises and Figgins is expected to start throwing by the end of the week. However, it’s hitting that will be the problem with his broken fingers, and Chone is still at least two weeks from making a return. Those of you in need of speed, now is a great time to make a lowball offer. One of our Sleeper Hitters, Chris B. Young, sat out yesterdays game with a tweaked groin, but is expected to be back in the lineup for tonight’s contest versus Cincinnati. Jason Schmidt, who left yesterday’s game in the fifth inning with a hamstring injury, is reportedly feeling much better and shouldn’t miss any time. He’s currently listed as day-to-day, but is expected to make his next scheduled start. The Dodgers are also expected to welcome Rafael Furcal back this Friday. He’s going to make two more rehab starts, but his ankle is nearly 100% so feel safe inserting him into your lineups for next week.

Eric Gagne will be activated this Friday, but he is not expected to assume the closer’s role right away. He’ll make his first few appearances in non-save situations, and I sense there is some question as to whether Gagne will be able to get major league hitters out. Word out of Texas is that Gagne is the team’s closer, but do not drop Akinori Otsuka. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll still be the closer when it’s all said and done. Royals closer Octavio Dotel is still bothered by his strained oblique according to Manager Buddy Bell. David Riske‘s dramatic blown save on a 3-run homer to Pudge Rodriguez has to make Royal’s fans (yes, they exist) eagerly anticipate the return of Dotel, who pitched well early in spring training. Me, I’m avoiding this whole team with the exceptions of Alex Gordon and the aforementioned Zack Greinke. There’s still no word on a possible return date for Yankee’s left fielder Hideki Matsui, who was placed on the 15-day disabeld list with a strained left hamstring.

There’s been a ton of hype surrounding Japanese import and Boston Red Sox new pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he did not disappoint. Dice-K debuted against the Kansas City Royals this afternoon in impressive fashion. He allowed one earned run (a solo shot by David of the Jesus), struck out 10, surrendered six hits and walked one batter en route to a 4-1 victory.

It was a strong start from beginning to end as Matsuzaka threw 74 of his 108 pitches for strikes, struck out the side in the fourth inning and finished by striking out three of the last four batters he faced. Too bad it wasn’t a bowling match. His breaking balls and change-ups were well complimented with a mid-90s fastball that kept the Royals lineup off balance all game. The pitch count seems a little high for a first start of the season, but this guy was throwing 150-pitch games in Japan, so it’s nothing new to him. It’s also worth noting that the 26-year-old righty also made some nifty plays in the field, assisting on three outs. Those of you who drafted him for your fantasy squads have to be feeling pretty good right about now, but keep in mind: it was the Kansas City Royals.

The Dallas News has confirmed reports that Major League Baseball is investigating Los Angeles Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez under suspicion of murder. Or cheating, or something. A website known as The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball Blog had been accusing Rodriguez of concealing a substance under the bill of his cap and using it to doctor balls while closing out games against the Texas Rangers earlier this week.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said he was alerted to the site on Wednesday, but he said the team didn’t contact MLB about Rodriguez.

Pat Courtney, a spokesman for Major League Baseball, said the office found out about the allegation Thursday and Bob Watson, in charge of discipline, is checking on it. Watson will review video of the games and could talk to umpires and players. If evidence shows that Rodriguez did put a substance on the baseball, in violation of rule 8.02b, he could face up to a 10-game suspension.

If Francisco does face a suspension, it would be big news for the Angels and fantasy owners. Let’s face it though: this is baseball. It’s a game where cheating is OK as long as you can get away with it, so this isn’t a moral issue. While Rodriguez is one of the top two or three closers in baseball, the fact that he is a closer also means that the damage to fantasy squads wouldn’t be too bad. He would only lose out on a couple of save opportunities, likely four at the most. The only other consideration is if he were somehow dependent on the foreign substance to pitch effectively, but we’ve seen enough of F-Rod to know that isn’t the case. Does anybody else call him F-Rod? No? I guess it does sound a little graphic.

You’ll notice that these predictions came out about a week or two after the rest of those charlatan prognosticators published theirs. I may be lazy, but I’m no fool. I’ve been paying close attention over the first few days of the season and I’ll be using that data to ensure that these predictions are at least twice, if not three times, as accurate as anybody else’s. I’ve been watching live games in the evenings and archived games in the afternoon (MLB.TV is a beautiful thing), and I’ve learned more than a couple of things. Just to name a few: Willy Taveras is set to lead the league in steals with somewhere between 140 and 162 (though he’ll see some stiff competition from Jason Tyner), the Minnesota Twins will probably win around 150 games (even though Johan Santana is just a mediocre pitcher) and this is the year that Xavier Nady finally puts it all together, hitting 50+ homers (slugging over 1.000).

As you can see, based on what’s taken place over the last three days, we can draw some fairly conclusive . . . conclusions about the next 5.9 months. There are some chalk picks, but also a few you may not expect (the bones reveal many strange things), so take check out ETB’s 2007 MLB divisional and individual award predictions.

Read the rest of this article »

The drafts are over, but the early weeks of a fantasy season are often more critical than those pre-season rankings and selections. Each year there are multiple waiver wire and free agent additions that contribute to an eventual championship. No matter how well you drafted, if you remain stagnant as a fantasy owner you will not win a competitive fantasy league.

One of the best ways to stay on top of all the options out there is to maintain a well stocked, informed ‘Watch List’. The following players could make good immediate adds, but we recommend all fantasy players add these starting pitchers to their watch lists and remain ready to pounce if the early returns show promise. Those of you in NL and AL-only leagues, several of these guys might already be gone. However, all of them are available in over 50% of Yahoo! 12-team mixed leagues.

Read the rest of this article »