Empty the Bench

There’s been a ton of hype surrounding Japanese import and Boston Red Sox new pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he did not disappoint. Dice-K debuted against the Kansas City Royals this afternoon in impressive fashion. He allowed one earned run (a solo shot by David of the Jesus), struck out 10, surrendered six hits and walked one batter en route to a 4-1 victory.

It was a strong start from beginning to end as Matsuzaka threw 74 of his 108 pitches for strikes, struck out the side in the fourth inning and finished by striking out three of the last four batters he faced. Too bad it wasn’t a bowling match. His breaking balls and change-ups were well complimented with a mid-90s fastball that kept the Royals lineup off balance all game. The pitch count seems a little high for a first start of the season, but this guy was throwing 150-pitch games in Japan, so it’s nothing new to him. It’s also worth noting that the 26-year-old righty also made some nifty plays in the field, assisting on three outs. Those of you who drafted him for your fantasy squads have to be feeling pretty good right about now, but keep in mind: it was the Kansas City Royals.

The Dallas News has confirmed reports that Major League Baseball is investigating Los Angeles Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez under suspicion of murder. Or cheating, or something. A website known as The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball Blog had been accusing Rodriguez of concealing a substance under the bill of his cap and using it to doctor balls while closing out games against the Texas Rangers earlier this week.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said he was alerted to the site on Wednesday, but he said the team didn’t contact MLB about Rodriguez.

Pat Courtney, a spokesman for Major League Baseball, said the office found out about the allegation Thursday and Bob Watson, in charge of discipline, is checking on it. Watson will review video of the games and could talk to umpires and players. If evidence shows that Rodriguez did put a substance on the baseball, in violation of rule 8.02b, he could face up to a 10-game suspension.

If Francisco does face a suspension, it would be big news for the Angels and fantasy owners. Let’s face it though: this is baseball. It’s a game where cheating is OK as long as you can get away with it, so this isn’t a moral issue. While Rodriguez is one of the top two or three closers in baseball, the fact that he is a closer also means that the damage to fantasy squads wouldn’t be too bad. He would only lose out on a couple of save opportunities, likely four at the most. The only other consideration is if he were somehow dependent on the foreign substance to pitch effectively, but we’ve seen enough of F-Rod to know that isn’t the case. Does anybody else call him F-Rod? No? I guess it does sound a little graphic.

You’ll notice that these predictions came out about a week or two after the rest of those charlatan prognosticators published theirs. I may be lazy, but I’m no fool. I’ve been paying close attention over the first few days of the season and I’ll be using that data to ensure that these predictions are at least twice, if not three times, as accurate as anybody else’s. I’ve been watching live games in the evenings and archived games in the afternoon (MLB.TV is a beautiful thing), and I’ve learned more than a couple of things. Just to name a few: Willy Taveras is set to lead the league in steals with somewhere between 140 and 162 (though he’ll see some stiff competition from Jason Tyner), the Minnesota Twins will probably win around 150 games (even though Johan Santana is just a mediocre pitcher) and this is the year that Xavier Nady finally puts it all together, hitting 50+ homers (slugging over 1.000).

As you can see, based on what’s taken place over the last three days, we can draw some fairly conclusive . . . conclusions about the next 5.9 months. There are some chalk picks, but also a few you may not expect (the bones reveal many strange things), so take check out ETB’s 2007 MLB divisional and individual award predictions.

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The drafts are over, but the early weeks of a fantasy season are often more critical than those pre-season rankings and selections. Each year there are multiple waiver wire and free agent additions that contribute to an eventual championship. No matter how well you drafted, if you remain stagnant as a fantasy owner you will not win a competitive fantasy league.

One of the best ways to stay on top of all the options out there is to maintain a well stocked, informed ‘Watch List’. The following players could make good immediate adds, but we recommend all fantasy players add these starting pitchers to their watch lists and remain ready to pounce if the early returns show promise. Those of you in NL and AL-only leagues, several of these guys might already be gone. However, all of them are available in over 50% of Yahoo! 12-team mixed leagues.

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The drafts are over, but the early weeks of a fantasy season are often more critical than those pre-season rankings and selections. Each year there are multiple waiver wire and free agent additions that contribute to an eventual championship. No matter how well you drafted, if you remain stagnant as a fantasy owner you will not win a competitive fantasy league.

One of the best ways to stay on top of all the options out there is to maintain a well stocked, informed ‘Watch List’. The following players could make good immediate adds, but we recommend all fantasy players add these starting pitchers to their watch lists and remain ready to pounce if the early returns show promise. Those of you in NL and AL-only leagues, several of these guys might already be gone. However, all of them are available in over 50% of Yahoo! 12-team mixed leagues.

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Those of you with high blood pressure may wish to stay away from this situation altogether, but Jorge Julio threw his first pitches as the closer for the Florida Marlins today. While he is certainly better than Florida’s other options, Julio remains a major question mark. Last season he struck out 88 in 66 innings, which was impressive, but he also had a 4.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, resulting in a modest 2.51 K/BB ratio. Given consistent opportunities, Julio will notch 25-30 saves and give your squad more than one K per inning, but your other peripherals will suffer.

Jorge Julio’s first tosses were from a few feet in front of the mound. Catcher Paul Hoover stood right around the plate. He barely was able to hold his ground.

Every throw jarred him back as Julio fired the ball as hard as he could despite the relatively short distance between the two.

“You have to be ready with me,” Julio said.

The enthusiasm Jorge brings is nice and all, but he needs to learn some subtlety if he’s going to be a reliable closer for fantasy squads. Nobody will question his natural ability or stuff, but Julio has been a loose cannon so far in his short professional career with a 4.20 ERA, 2.05 K/BB and 1.30 WHIP despite his .239 BAA overall. Regardless, those in need of saves in 12-team fantasy leagues should take a flier on Julio ASAP. You could do a lot worse, and the guy still has upside (check his splits). You’ll probably want to reserve him for the first week and keep a close eye on Wild Thing for the first part of the season, but it wouldn’t surprise if he became a nice sleeper . . . or dud.

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: closer Eric Gagne will be spending some time on the DL. For those of you who took my advice and drafted Gagne, don’t get too pissy just yet. Gagne isn’t injured, the Rangers just felt he needed to get some more innings in before he’s ready to close games at the MLB level. He should still be considered the Rangers’ starting closer for 2007 once he returns to the active roster. According to a prominent and reliable Ranger blog, Gagne is expected to be activated April 13th.

The move means that Akinori Otsuka will be the closer for the time being. That makes Otsuka a very sneaky source of saves for the first few weeks of the season. The decision also indicates that he could be asked to close out games beyond the expected April 13th call up of Gagne. Last year, his third season in the MLB, Otsuka recorded 32 saves with an impressive 2.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. With the obvious health concerns that come along with Gagne and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to become a reliable closer again, Otsuka is a great player to stash on your bench even after Gagne resumes the ninth inning responsibilities.

It wasn’t too long ago that Gagne was a Sportscenter darling and considered the best closer in Major League Baseball. But after totaling 152 saves combined between the 2002-04 seasons, Gagne has only tallied 9 saves the last two seasons, both of which ended with serious injuries. Gagne gave up 4 runs and 5 hits in his inning against the Padres this Tuesday, so he was clearly not ready just yet, but there is still reason for hope that he will return to post decent save totals this season. Of course, he will never be the Gagne of 2002-04, but 30 saves is still not out of the question by any means.

The Kansas City Royals’ All-World 3B prospect Alex Gordon will enter the 2007 season fifth in the batting order according to Royals manager Buddy Bell. So far this spring the rookie is hitting 378/.500/.622 in 37 at-bats. The opening day lineup will place Gordon between DH Mike Sweeney and 1B Ryan Shealy, which isn’t exactly an ideal situation, but opportunities for RBIs will be there and the kid will deal. He hasn’t had a Major League at-bat yet, but he led the Texas League in RBIs and home runs last season. Gordon finished the season with one of the few 20-20 seasons in all of the minor leagues and led Double-A ball with a 1.016 OPS.

“I just think he’s our best fifth hitter,” Bell said. “I really don’t think it’s going to affect him where he hits. He could hit fourth. The more I’m around him, the more I like him.

“He’s just a tough kid. Early on, I thought we might want to protect him a little more. Not now.”

People in my fantasy leagues probably know just how excited I am about this guy. He’ll be a fantasy starter in 12-team mixed leagues by the end of the year, mark it down. It’s no exaggeration to say that he could contend for an AL MVP or two (Jeff Passan recently named him as his leading AL MVP-in-waiting) at some point in his career. That means for people in deep keeper leagues, it’s not too early to consider him for future seasons. If everything goes according to plan, which is rarely the case, Gordon should be in a heated battle for AL Rookie of the Year with Daisuke Matsuzaka and uber-prospect Delmon Young (I give the nod to Young at this point).

A quick heads up for you fantasy MLB players out there who haven’t drafted yet, and a nod to the good folks over at Rotoworld. They have posted their Stay-Away List for the 2007 fantasy season. There are a few no-brainers on the list, such as Nick Johnson (he could miss the entire season), Mark Prior (he’s been optioned to Triple-A Iowa) and Juan Encarnacion (he’ll begin this campaign on the DL, and is unlikely to regain his starting job when he returns). But it’s always good to make sure on those guys, especially for players in extremely deep leagues.

There are also some pretty interesting picks. I had Anibal Sanchez high on my ’sleeper’ list, even though his no-no last season got so much attention. However, as Aaron Gleeman points out, “Sanchez’s 72-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 114.1 innings suggests that the 2.83 ERA was due largely to luck.” NL Batting Champ Freddy Sanchez? He may not start the season on time with a lingering knee injury, and history suggests he’s in line for some major regressing to the mean. Chien-Ming Wang had 19 wins and a 3.63 ERA last season, but his “historically low strikeout rate,” combined with the fact that he’ll start the season on the DL with a dreaded hamstring injury, makes him a prime candidate to be a bust this season.

Before the Yankees fans come out of the woodwork, note that this is a fantasy MLB column. When it comes to the bottom of the ninth in a one-run playoff game, there’s still nobody we’d rather have out there than Mariano Rivera. No, this is about the guys who will contribute the most to your team in the regular season in terms of volume and consistency. These are the closers that will rack up the most total saves and strikeouts, who will keep the your team’s ERA and all-important WHIP down and who will see the most action in the regular season. They don’t have the inning totals that starters see, but they can also be a sneaky source of wins, and if your closer’s stats aren’t ahead of the league averages you’re going to be in serious trouble.

The closer position is one of the most tenuous in baseball due to the psychological and physical nature of the position, so to assume anything is a mistake. Brad Lidge provides lesson enough, as his confidence was shattered by the Albert Pujols moonshot 16 months ago. He came off a two-season stretch where he had recorded 71 saves and an ERA around 2.10 to post a 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2006. Ouch. Still, there are a handful of guys we’d like to think we can count on. Here are the top five:

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Anybody who is a Twins fan or who has owned Johan Santana on their fantasy team knows he typically starts very slowly. It usually takes him a while to get his feel for the changeup, and he’s even been known to skip a few over the plate in spring training. He always gets on track to post some of the best overall numbers in baseball, but in the months of April and March he has a very un-Santana career ERA of 4.42. Yesterday, Johan threw five scorless innings and only gave up one hit (a nub hit that he misplayed himself). What was important about the start, though, was that he had unseasonable control over that changeup, the most devestating pitch in his arsenal.

“He’s got a pretty good feel for that, early,” catcher Joe Mauer said. “Which is good for us and probably bad for some other people.”

The day he won his second American League Cy Young Award, Santana maintained that there was room to improve. It’s apparent that getting off to a fast start is one way of achieving that, and getting control of his changeup could fuel such a start.

“Before, my changeup wasn’t there at this point,” Santana said following his 62-pitch outing. “Now it is there. I’ve got a good feeling.”

If Santana is locked in already, his sky-high draft stock can only improve. Traditional wisdom in fantasy baseball is to lock up a slugger early, as pitchers can be very fickle and injury prone. It’s the same thinking behind the unwritten rule that you always draft a stud running back in the first round of a football draft. However, as consistent and as far ahead of the pack as Johan is, he represents the Peyton Manning of baseball. After Albert Pujols goes off the board, it wouldn’t be a mistake to take him with any other first round pick.

ETB highlighted some of our favorite MLB pitchers who will make a bigger impact than their fantasy draft position suggests earlier this week. Today we take a look at some of the hitters who are getting no respect in fantasy drafts. These are players who are either young guys, were injured last season, or both, and we expect them to shine in 2007. For most of these picks, don’t grab them in the first half of your draft, just be patient and take them with your later picks; they’re all about low risk with potential for high reward. SS is so deep this year, you don’t need our help there. But if you miss out on the top guys anywhere else, we got you covered.

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