By Andrew Thell
The Orioles give Koji Uehara to the Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter; The Padres give up Mike Adams to the Rangers for Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin.

Let’s just get this out of the way first: this really sucks for everybody who owns shares in Mike Adams this season and beyond. I feel for you, I’ve been holding onto Adams in my keeper league for months assuming he would be the closer today. Not only does he get traded instead of Heath Bell and get shafted for the closer’s job in San Diego, Adams also goes from a pitcher’s paradise and a manager who ran a crisp bullpen to a hitter’s haven and a manager who struggles to keep his sock drawer in order. It makes no sense to me from the Friars’ perspective either: Adams is better than Bell, he’s younger than Bell and he’s under team control for a year longer than Bell. Boo-urns.

Let’s also say this: kudos to the Texas Rangers for landing two absolutely dominant and underrated relievers. This is how you shore up a bullpen at the trade deadline. On a per-inning basis, Uehara and Adams are now the Rangers best two pitchers. Hell, they might be the best one-two punch this side of Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Paired with 2010 AL ROY Neftali Feliz they should allow Texas to go into absolute lockdown mode after the 6th inning. That’s a scary thought paired with this team’s elite offense and decent starting pitching.

If I was gambling on either Adams or Uehara against Neftali I’d take either of the former to be closing out games by the end of the month. I don’t know what’s up with him, but with a 4.66 BB/9, 6.28 K/9 (only 6 Ks versus righties all year!) and 4.73 xFIP on the season Neftali is not closer material right now. The problem is, Texas got Adams and Uehara, and I have no idea which one will take over for Feliz if he continues to falter as I expect. In his second season in the MLB Koji Uehara has has posted an otherworldly set of numbers: 1.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 1.50 BB/9. Damn. Still, he’s been a bit lucky with a .192 BABIP and 97.6% LOB this year and his track record isn’t lengthy with just 99 career appearances. In 271 appearances Mike Adams boasts a 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.29 K/9 – and over the last three years he’s been even better. With both under Rangers’ control for 2012, it’s that experience gap in favor of Adams and and old-school manager in Ron Washington that leads me to think Adams should have the inside track for the job if/when Felix falters.

There’s also one interesting piece on the Baltimore side of the equation. Chris Davis has made a name for himself as a prototypical quad-A player, and I don’t have anything to dispel that notion baseball fan, but he makes headlines once again. As per his usual, Davis has crushed minor league pitching this season to the tune of 24 HRs with a .405 OBP and .824 SLG (!). We’ve seen this picture before, though. Stellar in the minors, strikeout machine in the majors. Maybe the change of scenery helps, maybe it doesn’t. He’s not moving into a better lineup or park, and Texas doesn’t exactly discourage offense. A speculative play on Davis isn’t crazy given his prodigious power and gaudy minor-league totals and the fact that he should get all the playing time he can handle, I made the move in one deep league, but there’s no reason to have much faith in a career turnaround at this point.

By Andrew Thell

The White Sox trade Mark Teahen and Edwin Jackson to Toronto for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart; the Blue Jays send Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Marc Rzepczynski to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters.

I’m a Rasmus fan, I think that kid has all the tools to be an impact player and All-Star calibre contributor on both offense and defense as he enters his prime the next few seasons. After a blistering start to April in which it looked like the 24-year-old center fielder was poised to cash in on all his promise, Rasmus’ OPS has gone dramatically south in each successive month, falling to an unsightly .684 in June and abysmal .544 mark in July. You hate to see him leave a lineup with protection built in like Pujols, Holliday and Berkman, but with the youngster privately and publicly clashing with Tony La Russa over the last two seasons there’s no doubt in my mind a change of scenery was needed. The kid goes into a better hitters park, a more offensive-oriented division, joins a hitting coach that has seriously tapped into the power of his students and should be in line for everyday playing time from here on out. I think this is a big win, and could be the spark Rasmus needed to rouse him from the mid-season doldrums he’s been caught up in.

On the other side, the Cards pick up the talented-but-perpetually-frustrating Edwin Jackson. The stuff is there, and Jackson has shown plenty of “flahses” to inspire confidence in his abilities, but I think we’ve gotten to a point where he can safely be labeled a head case with bad control. I never like relying on that kind of arm. Still, Jackson moves to a decent pitcher’s park and will now study under the immortal Dave Duncan, who could probably still turn Carlos Silva into a decent 4th starter. There’s reason for optimism here, but I’m done relying on Jackson. He’s the kind of guy who will consistently tease you and post peripherals that grab your attention only to break your heart every Friday night.

The mover is potentially bad news for Rajai Davis, Eric Thames, and Travis Snider – all of whom have fantasy relevance and all of whom figure to get squeezed out of playing time in the near future. My money is on Thames being sent back down (he’s younger), Rajai being used as a defensive and base-running replacement (he’s been successful as such) and Snider being given a long look in left as long as he can continue to hit. There were also a number of relief pitchers and unexciting prospects involved in the deal. I don’t really feel like talking about them, but I do think Marc Rzepczynski is a decent young lefty to keep an eye on in Holds leagues – he qualifies at SP in Yahoo! leagues, which is always nice. Deep leaguers might also want to add Jon Jay to the Watch List, but I wouldn’t expect much in the way of roto value; he doesn’t really have much category juice.

By Andrew Thell

The Rockies send Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians for prospects Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride.

The Indians flipped a couple of solid pitching prospects for the name-brand Ubaldo, but the move really doesn’t move the needle much for me. I know Jimenez was the odds-on favorite for the NL Cy Young at this point last year, but a quick look at his peripherals even then showed he was playing over his head. Since then we’ve seen him collapse in the second half of 2010 and then perform like a thoroughly mediocre starter in 2011. It’s looking more and more like that first half of 2010 was the outlier in his career, and with Ubaldo losing a few ticks of velocity this season I’m not hopeful for a dramatic turnaround.

Most people point to his departure from Coors Field as a reason for optimism, and it is, Coors field is still brutal, but that is largely mitigated by going to the AL in my book. On top of that the Indians field a less capable defense behind Jiminez and their offense isn’t any better than Colorado’s. I think his value pretty much stays the same.

I feel like the Indians paid for the name and not the numbers here, giving up two very solid pitching prospects in the Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. White is a solid groundball pitcher who could plug a rotation spot, while Pomeranz may take some more seasoning but has flashed front-of-the-rotation talent in the minors. They were the consensus top lefty and righty, respectively, in the Indians system. Both figure to take a hit going forward pitching in that thin air of Colorado.

By Andrew Thell

Bedard and Josh Fields traded to the Boston Red Sox for Trayvon Robinson and Chih-Hsien Chiang as part of a three team deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Consider me conflicted on this one. I actually love Bedard’s talent, and I’m glad to see him finally put it together and stay reasonably healthy after so many years of injury woes. I know the guy is a noted curmudgeon, but so am I. We have a kinship. On top of that, Bedard has one of my favorite curveball-changeup combos of the last decade. The guy can make people look downright foolish when he’s on and it’s fun to watch. Health will always be a concern, but when he’s on the mound Bedard can be a difference-maker in fantasy and a pennant race.

The hasty analysis is to say this kills Bedard’s value as he moves from a pitcher’s haven in Safeco to a pitcher’s nightmare in Fenway, and that’s true, but let’s also note this: Bedard has been just fine on the road this season. In fact, he’s been significantly better than he’s been at home: 3 Wins, 2.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .203 BAA and 41 Ks in 41.2 innings on the road against 1 Win, 4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA and 46 Ks in 49.2 innings at home. So his spacious home ballpark has not exactly been a crutch for Bedard. Still, Safeco has been the 4th hardest place to score runs this year and Fenway has been the 3rd easiest. So yeah, the numbers may take a hit and fantasy owners are going to be benching Bedard a few more times against tough AL East offenses at home. But Bedard also goes from the worst run support in the league to the best. The Red Sox have scored 140 more runs than the Mariners this year, and that should easily translate into a couple more Ws down the stretch.

All is not lost, Bedard owners.

Trayvon Robinson is the big get in Seattle side of the trade. He’s a prototypical “toolsy” outfielder who brings some pretty decent speed and mediocre plate-discipline and on-base skills to the table, but he doesn’t register on the fantasy radar just yet. After a few years down on the farm working with the pitching machines he could end up being an impact top-of-the-order type of bat for the Mariners though, which isn’t bad considering Bedard was ready to walk after this season. It seems like a win-win situation for Seattle and Boston and no fantasy owners are left out in the cold either.

By Andrew Thell

Those of us who get excited for trade season are usually left crestfallen as trade deadlines come and go with little fanfare. 2011 wasn’t too shabby though, I give it a 6 (on a scale that doesn’t really have any meaning, but let’s say it goes to, oh, 10). I’m not going to say the non-waiver trade deadline that passed on Sunday was some kind of wild, raucous, landscape-altering affair, but there were definitely some doin’s a’ transpirin’ in the MLB over the last week and there are plenty of implications in both real life and fantasy that deserve our attention. We might not have seen a high volume of superstars trade places, but the proceedings were many and they will have an impact on pennant races and imaginary trophies alike. I’m doing a small series of posts on the biggest moves, but let’s take a few minutes and break down the second-tier headlines as succinctly as possible:

Carlos Beltran Makes a Move to the Bay

The Mets send Carlos Beltran to the Giants for pitching prospect Zach Wheeler.

It’s a major move in real life, but we can still keep this brief: Carlos Beltran moves from a shitty NL hitting environment with an injury-bitten, mediocre offense around him to a shitty NL hitting environment with an injury-bitten, downright-bad offense around him. Zach Wheeler is a major coup for the Mets: he’s a top-50 pitching prospect with good groundball and strikeout numbers who should be great in Citi Field in two years.

The Giants needed to add a big bat, and Beltran is certainly that. He’s proving he has plenty left in the tank with 15 HRs, 67 RBIs, an excellent .904 OPS and a league-leading 30 doubles thus far. The Giants have a fantastic pitching staff and could make noise with that alone in the postseason, but they know they still need to score some runs to hold onto the NL West and be serious competitors. Beltran should keep doing what he’s doing and instantly becomes the Giants’ best offensive player, but there’s not going to be any Jose Reyes to knock in every time he sends a ball to the outfield and teams will be even more inclined to pitch around Carlos. It seems like a minor downgrade to me. Back in the NYC, Lucas Duda figures to see regular playing time in right. I have no sympathy for you if you click that add button.

The Phightin’ Phillies Bag Hunter Pence

The Astros ship Hunter Pence to the Phillies for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a PTBNL.

I like Hunter Pence, but I can’t help but think the guy is a little overrated. Made the centerpiece of the Astros offense going into the season Pence has been decent, but his 11 HRs and .828 OPS don’t scream “star” to me. That’s what Houston advertised him as though, and in a market that was desperate for offense he generated plenty of interest. The Phils gave up a couple of middling prospects and Jarred Cosart, who has the stuff to pitch near the top of a rotation someday. That seems fair to me. I’m just not sure Pence is a huge upgrade over Dominic Brown, who Philly sent down to make room for Pence in the lineup. That makes Dom Brown and his owners the real losers in this deal. Que sera. He’ll be back soon enough. Pence has been a bit lucky in the BABIP dept this year, he no longer runs much, his power is just OK and the Philly lineup isn’t anything special these days, so while he should be a solid outfielder for the Phillies I’m not expecting anything dramatic in the second half.

Bourn to Braves and Ludwick to Pittsburgh, after the jump …

Michael Bourn Leads Off Braves’ Second-Half Push

The Astros send Michael Bourn to the Braves for Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu.

After the injury to Brian McCann, who was having a stellar season from behind the plate, Atlanta was desperate to shore up their offense and hold off myriad wild card suitors. Bourn is certainly an upgrade in center over Jordan Schafer defensively and offensively, and he should continue to rack up the stolen bases in bunches that make him a fantasy star in antiquated 5×5 leagues. It was nice to see Atlanta make a move for an impact bat and not give up any of the elite young arms of which they have an embarrassment of riches.

The other big piece of news here is that this clears time for fellow speedster Jason Bourgeois in Houston. A slap hitter who has effectively used the whole field so far this season in limited playing time, Bourgeois should be a decent source of AVG and runs and a tremendous source of stolen bases as the season progresses. He’s got a number of 30+ steals seasons in the minors and has swiped 17 bags in the 25 games he’s started this year. Add everywhere as needed.

The Surprising-but-Stumbling Pirates Bring in Ryan Ludwick

The Pirates acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Pads for a player to the named later and/or cash considerations.

If you’re rapidly scrolling to this point in the article to get the spin on the Ludwick trade then you are a sad gremlin of a being and I can’t help you. Sure, getting out of Petco is huge. That place is like some kind of Hellmouth for offensive production, all goodness is sucked and never heard from again. Just ask Anthony Rizzo. Still, Ludwick is 33, it’s been 2 years since he was reasonably productive, and PNC and Petco have surprisingly similar Park Effects for righties. I think there should be some more RBI opportunities in an improved lineup, but Ludwick pretty much stays the uninspiring deep-league-only option he’s been since 2009.

By Andrew Thell

We do our best in February and March. We spend countless hours crunching numbers, reading blogs, poring over spreadsheets and cheat sheets, picking our friends’ brains and buying draft guides. We do it all not just in the name of finding the big breakout candidates, but also to avoid the coming season’s big busts. It’s hard to win a league in the first ten rounds, but you sure can lose one. Despite these efforts, we end up those busts on rosters anyways. Every year, on nearly every roster, it happens to the best of us.

If you’re languishing in your league’s standings, odds are you have several big busts driving you batty, and as we approach the halfway point you’re wondering if it’s time to throw in the towel. In another month or so it might be time to wash your hands of the whole mess and turn to the poker table for your competitive fix … well, even more than you already have been. But it’s not too late to make a run in any league, even if it’s just a surge in the standings for the sake of pride. There are few things more satisfying than turning a disaster campaign around, and what is likely to define this effort is how you handle the busts, both yours and those of your league mates. In the words of Charles Bukowski, what matters most is how well you walk through the fire.

Let’s take a look at the most epic busts of the season thus far and talk about what’s to be done with them. We’ll define them as guys who came into the season as consensus top-100 picks that are currently ranked at least 75 spots below where they started in standard scoring leagues. I’ve looked extensively at the numbers, both traditional and Sabermetric, for all of the below (several of which because they’re on more than one of my rosters), but I’ll keep the comments on each brief and the stats few. It’s been a tough year, we’ve got a lot of ground to cover.

Today we’ll work on hitters, later this week we’ll get to the pitcher duds.

Which fantasy baseball big names to buy, sell and hold, after the jump …

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: Coming into the season he was in consideration for the top overall pick, but you won’t find him in the current top 200. We’re absolutely looking at a case of bad luck here, as Ramirez currently sports a .256 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) compared to his career .340 mark, so the batting average should vastly improve. His power has evaporated as well, as the career .199 ISO (Isolated Slugging) has dipped all the way to .091, and that’s in large part due to his career-high 54.9% ground ball percentage. Yuck. Motivation and injury are the two concerns with Hanley, but he’s looking as healthy as he has all season and with a potential trade to a better offense there’s reason for optimism. I wouldn’t pay close to full price right now, but I’d float a lowball offer.

Verdict: Hold, risky buy low with huge upside.

Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria’s oblique injury was a real shame for owners expecting a breakout season from the number 4 ranked Yahoo! player coming into the season. When he has been on the field the results have been mediocre as well, but I see no reason for concern. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, his ISO is healthy and the .254 BABIP is bound to correct. In fact, we already saw some correction with a monster series over the weekend. The buy-low door may have slammed shut with 8 hits, 3 HRs and 10 RBI over the last week – but I’d still try to stick my foot in it.

Verdict: Hold and very strong buy low.

Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox: It’s true that Carl Crawford’s game is ill-fitted to the dimensions at Fenway, he looked to be responding negatively to the pressure of the massive contract to start the season and Boston really didn’t need him with Ellsbury in the outfield and plenty of top-of-the-order hitters on the roster. Still, he’s an elite talent in his prime playing in a great park with a great offense around him, and he’s not living up to expectations. I’m concerned at the abysmal, career-low 3.2% walk rate, that he’s only attempted 12 steals and been caught on 4 of the attempts. On top of that, you never want to see a hamstring injury for a player whose primary asset is speed. I’ve always considered Crawford a bit overrated for fantasy purposes and think last year’s 19 HRs were an aberration; if he’s not stealing bags at an elite rate then he’s not an elite player.

Verdict: Sell if you can get full value, not buying.

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: That Mr. Met has been a completely different hitter since his concussion two years ago is well-documented. His strikeouts have skyrocketed, topping out at an Adam Dunn-esque 29.5% this season. That’s scary for a guy who used to be known for great plate approach. That said, his BABIP is way down (.276 this year, .341 career), he’s resumed baseball activities since landing on the DL May 15th, he seemed to figure out the new, spacious park last season and he’s still got the tools to be a huge difference maker at this thinnest of positions. The bad numbers this year are in a tiny sample and I’m buying if in need at the hot corner, but I’m not paying full price.

Verdict: Hold, modest buy.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: If you came into the season expecting Ian Kinsler to both stay healthy and post a great batting average this season then you may be in the wrong racket – but the .235 mark is very low even for him. Kinsler hovers around .275 for his career, and a .242 BABIP has been the culprit so far given his solid 19.4% line-drive percentage and ground-ball and fly-ball rates. However, given his injury history, despite the low BA the fact that Kinsler has stayed healthy and produced 8 HRs and 15 SBs before the midway point to me means he hasn’t been a bust at all. The injury bug could always bite, making him a risky buy, but his peripherals look as sound as ever and it’s heating up in Arlington. It’s a gut call with injury risks, but personally I love the HR/SB upside and I love to buy Rangers just before their offense goes on the annual summer home run binge.

Verdict: Hold, risky buy with big upside – but then you knew that.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves: Not only is Uggla hitting .175, he’s not even getting on base, walking just 7.7% of the time (.241 OBP). You didn’t draft Uggla for his batting average, you did it for the power, but the average should at least crest the Mendoza line when the absurdly low .188 BABIP recovers. I’m more concerned about the drop to a career-low .155 ISO and spike to a career-high 12.6% IFFB (Infield Fly Ball Percentage, or pop-ups). He’s pressing right now, but the tools are still there, there’s no injury we know of, and he’s coming off four straight 31+ HR seasons. He’s always going to be a liability in average, but you knew that, and I think this has buy low written all over it.

Verdict: Hold, buy low.

Adam Dunn, DH/1B, Chicago White Sox: This is starting to get scary. You know a True Three Outcomes guy like Dunn who has struck out 33.3% of the time in his career is going to be streaky and should never be counted on for even a serviceable batting average, but the .173 BA after two straight .260+ campaigns stings like when I pee. Remember though, we’ve seen this guy hit under .240 more than once for a full season and there’s plenty of time to get back to that range. What’s worse is we all took Dunn to be one of our primary power sources, we were counting on HRs, not AVG. After all, the man has hit between 38 and 46 HRs for seven straight years, and he’s moving from a crappy NL hitters park to a HR haven on the South Side of Chicago. What we’ve gotten is just 7 HRs (.143 ISO this year, a robust .265 career) and 29 RBIs.

The 43.3% strikeout rate is jaw-droppingly bad and the 16.4 % IFFB is the worst since his rookie season. Those are red flags, but the rest of the peripherals actually look pretty healthy. I make no promises about the batting average, but I feel confident Dunn will be a plus source of power from here on out. I also have a gut feeling, nothing scientific, that resting a few games during interleague play will do a lot of good. This may be the cheapest he’s come in a trade in his career. And for you owners, what exactly do you think you’ll get for him? Luke Scott?

Verdict: Hold, and strong buy if you need power.

By Andrew Thell

As the statistical arsenal of the fantasy baseball player grows more complex by the year more and more owners are turning to metrics like BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and FIP or xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, or expected ERA given only the profile of the pitcher’s interaction with the batter and not the actual result). These statistics can help us determine the true performance and expected value of pitchers and batters by assessing the level of good or bad luck they have experienced to this point. Articles detailing who’s been lucky or unlucky based on these stats are commonplace, but we need to take them with a grain of salt. I’m going to make some recommendations based on these numbers, but I first want to address a few necessary caveats that far too many writers are ignoring in their analysis. These stats are extremely useful, but they only paint a part of the larger picture.

In employing these metrics we need to be careful in how we project regression to the mean. Because a given player has been extremely unlucky to this point does not mean that he is “due” for a stretch of good luck, it simply means that we should not expect the bad luck to continue. We should expect them merely to perform at their expected level going forward. Although it often happens incidentally, bad luck is not necessarily followed by good luck, or vice versa. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 9 times, that doesn’t mean we can expect it to come up tails 9 of the next 10 flips – we go into each flip with a 50/50 expectation of either equally probably outcome.

The all-important issue of sample size must also be taken into account. With this level of complex statistical analysis we need extremely large sample sizes to draw any meaningful conclusions, and one month of data simply isn’t enough. Sometimes a year or more of data isn’t enough, as players have full seasons of bad luck (or, quite often, seasons with nagging injuries that show up on the purely linear spreadsheet as “bad luck”).

On top of that, we also need to keep in mind that there are players and playing styles that will consistently stray from “normal” expectations in BABIP or the relationship between FIP and ERA. We know that in general, when a Major League Baseball player puts a ball into play it will drop for a hit about 30% of the time, or the league average BABIP will be approximately .300 (Thanks, Voros McCracken). Players with exceptional speed, line-drive rates or (in very rare cases) bat control can consistently post higher than average BABIP while slower players or players with unusually high infield fly ball (pop up) rates will consistently underperform league averages in BABIP. Likewise, pitchers who struggle from out of the stretch, are given to mental breakdown or suffer from unusual proneness to home runs can consistently post ERAs well above the ERA we would expect given their FIP. These are just a few examples of what can spoil a simplistic BABIP or FIP analysis that seems to indicate good or bad luck on the surface.

The point is, these metrics can only tell us some of what has happened and give us a basis for making an educated guess about the future. And even in that endeavor, they’re only a part of the complete picture. No player is owed anything going forward based on previous luck, and some players consistently make their own luck. With all of that in mind, here are a few of my favorite sell high and buy low trade targets right now based on BABIP and FIP:

Six players you should be targeting in your fantasy baseball league, after the jump …

- Matt Garza should be at the top of any “buy low” list right now. We knew the switch out of the AL East and into the National League would be good for Matt Garza’s strikeouts and the temperamental kid always had good stuff, but I don’t think anybody expected this explosion in his K-rate. Garza has rung up 58 batters in just 44.2 innings on the season, giving him an obscene 11.69 K/9 figure, the highest in baseball among starting pitchers. Pair that with a career-high 50.9% ground-ball rate, and you know where else Garza ranks highly? FIP, where his 1.57 number is second only to the Cylon Roy Halladay among all starting pitchers. Despite his great numbers, Garza has just 1 win on the season and an ugly 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP to show for it. The new Cub has only stranded 59% of his baserunners this season, which is just plain unlucky for a guy that typically leaves 73% on the bags. Even more unlucky is that balls put in play against Garza are finding a hole 39% of the time even though he had a .290 BABIP in 730 MLB innings coming into the season. He’s going to start stranding runners and balls are going to start finding gloves at a normal rate at some point. There may be no better buy low pitcher opportunity all season as a result.

- Another extremely talented young pitcher with the BABIP blues right now is Daniel Hudson of the Arizona Diamondbacks. After being sent to the desert in exchange for the always-overhyped Edwin Jackson midway through last season, Hudson posted a jaw-dropping 1.69 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .183 batting average against with 70 Ks in 79.2 innings for Arizona last season, leading to a 7-1 record in 11 starts. As a result, he was a hot commodity in draft season. Nobody could expect a repeat performance this year, not after he posted unsustainable metrics in LOB% (83.1) and BABIP (.241) on the season. Still, things haven’t gone smoothly thus far in 2011 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but the kid is pitching just fine. His 2.59 FIP and 40.3% ground-ball rate are both career highs and the K/9 of 8.73 is plenty healthy. Hudson showed how dominant he can be last weekend with 7 scoreless frames in San Diego (5 hits, 6 Ks, 0 BBs, and yes, in PETCO), and the buy-low window is closing fast.

- The Baltimore Orioles new man manning the hot corner, Mark Reynolds, may be the most extreme True Three Outcomes (strikeout, walk or home run) hitter in all of baseball. He’s a hacker, and he’s likely never going to hit above .270 at any point in his career. That doesn’t mean he isn’t useful though. The man has light-tower power and can even swipe a few bags playing at fantasy baseball’s thinnest position this season. Last year Reynolds finished the season below the Mendoza line (.198 batting average) and still managed to 32 home runs with 85 RBIs and a .320 on-base percentage. Reynolds was never going to keep up the .340+ BABIP he posted in 2007-09, but he had a miserable .257 BABIP last season and it’s carried into this year with an even worse .224 BABIP and just 3 home runs thus far. It’s worth noting that while Reynold’s 31.9% strikeout rate is still terrible, it’s the best in a career that has seen him rock 104 home runs in the last three seasons. Again, he’s going to hurt your batting average, but Reynolds will heat up at some point and provide very useful power numbers. If The Sherriff has been dropped in your league, scoop him up and wait for it. If not, float a lowball offer. Players with his power stroke and strikeout numbers will always be streaky, but the bombs will come eventually.

- The Texas Rangers offense has been plenty healthy this year (third-most runs scored in baseball) despite injuries to Nelson Cruz and 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton and two of their best offensive players experiencing some of the worst luck in the American League. Newly signed third baseman Adrian Beltre’s .210 BABIP is well below his career .292 mark and he’s currently showing some of the best plate discipline of his life while striking out in a career-low 9.4% of at-bats. The .239 BA won’t last. Meanwhile, stud second baseman Ian Kinsler is nearly as bad with a .221 BA and .214 BABIP (.296 and .288 career, respectively), though he’s still notched a healthy 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases on the season. If you can get any kind of discount on either of these studs playing at two of the thinnest positions in baseball, pounce. Arlington is a fun place to play when the summer months heat up and these two are poised to put up some huge numbers in this park and offense.

- The aging Jorge Posada wasn’t a sexy pick, but he figured to see a boon in production moving from catcher to full-time designated hitter this season. Turning 40 this August, the switch should help to keep Posada healthy all season, but thus far the longtime Yankees backstop is hitting a woeful .147 on the season with just 15 hits, 11 runs scored and 14 RBIs. Posoda may be the most unlucky hitter in the league thus far though, sporting an MLB-worst .134 BABIP. The owner of a career .296 BABIP, Posaada should be in line for a major batting average correction as the year goes on and his current strikeout rate (28.4%), walk rate (11.2%) and isolated power numbers (.196, 6 home runs on the season) remain right in line with career averages. If you need a catcher, sell his owner on his advanced age and terrible batting average. There is value to be had here in that healthy lineup and ridiculous home ballpark.

By: Andrew Thell

For Diamondbacks fans and Dan Haren owners Tuesday’s turn at Dodger Stadium offered a chance to come down off the ledge. 2010 has been a disaster for the ace thus far, with his ERA standing at a bloated 5.35 in 74 innings coming into Chavez Ravine. That is not what we signed up for back in May when drafting the 29-year-old ace, myself included. In fantasy you’re always supposed to wait on pitching unless the hurler in question is a true difference maker in the ratios, and Haren had proven he was just what with 216 innings of 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 206 Ks in 2008 followed by a truly elite 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings in 2009. Coming into the season there was little question Haren had transformed himself into an ace with a strikeout rate and WHIP that had improved in each of the last five seasons.

Then this season happened.

I managed to get the Diamondbacks feed for Tuesday’s tilt and it was one of the few times in my life I was actually glad I didn’t draw the venerable Vin Scully’s mellifluous commentary for a Dodgers game. That’s because Arizona announcers Daron Sutton and Mark Grace spent a bulk of the broadcast dissecting Mr. Haren, a topic I was acutely interested in. Despite a woeful ignorance of and aversion to advanced stats, they still provided useful information in discussing a mechanical adjustment Haren had made between starts to stay on top of the ball through his motion, allowing him to better keep it down in the zone and below the belt-line – something that had been a problem resulting in an uncharacteristic 16 HRs allowed in just 12 starts (and 8 in his last 2). The results seemed to speak for themselves as Haren did keep the ball down, striking out 7, inducing grounders with regularly, not giving up any deep flies of note and putting goose eggs on the board for 8 innings.

It was an encouraging start to say the least. Less encouraging was manager AJ Hinch’s handling of his ace. Hinch sent him back out there to face the heart of a dangerous Dodgers order for the 8th inning of a tie-game, putting Haren in a position to potentially unravel the confidence he had built through 7 stellar innings and pushing the struggling star to a career-high pitch count of 127. It was a terrible decision, but it worked out – at least until Haren’s next start versus Atlanta, where I hope the excessive pitches don’t catch up with him, or later in the season, where I pray the workload doesn’t eventually shelve Haren. Throughout the season Hinch has proven himself a clown in his handling of the pitching staff, bullpen included, but that’s beside the point.

Setting concerns over Mr. Hinch’s managerial ineptitude aside, a look under the hood shows that we really shouldn’t have been that worried about Haren even before the strong performance in LA. He’s now at 83 Ks in 82 innings, good for a career-high 9.11 K/9, the best mark of his career and a strong indication there isn’t a lingering injury. Haren’s BABIP on the season is .342 and he has a 17% HR/FB, both up drastically from his career .302 BABIP and 11.2% HR/FB. Those are two more strong indications bad luck are playing a huge role in the current bloated ERA and WHIP.

Other than a not-easy schedule for the remainder of June (vs. ATL, vs. STL, @ DET, vs. NYY, @ STL) I don’t see any reason to think Haren can’t build on Tuesday’s performance and start turning in the type of quality starts (and Quality Starts) we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few years. Of course, there is the ominous late-season split Haren has built up (3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .231 BAA pre-All Star break; 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .277 BAA post-All Star break in 1,300+ career innings). But I don’t buy into that dramatic a difference at this point in his career – I think it’s something that will iron out over time, and this is likely a year where he posts an inverse split which starts that process.

Bottom line: Diamondbacks fans can exhale, owners of Haren will want to hold on to their investment and keep trotting him out there (except perhaps for that start against the Yanks), and any fantasy owner in need of front-line pitching help the rest of the way should have been trying to buy low for a couple weeks. Make your offers now, the window of opportunity is closing here. There’s no guarantee Haren won’t throw up a couple of stinkers, but there’s also no reason to think he’s not the stud fantasy owners spent that third- or fourth-round pick on.

By: Andrew Thell

Back in late May I picked out four former MLB stars who were looking to regain some of their lost luster and made a case for why they just might do so. The four players in question were former sluggers Adrian Beltre and Vladimir Guerrero and erstwhile aces Ben Sheets and Francisco Liriano. So far those gentlemen are doing pretty well on the whole. Let’s take a peek under the hood.

Ben Sheets is always an injury concern, but the move to the Oakland Coliseum, a spacious park with some of the most generous foul territory in baseball, and his natural talent gave reason for optimism. The results so far have not been good – a 5.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .278 BAA aren’t paying the bills. However, a closer look at the game log reveals that Sheets gave up a combined 17 runs, 19 hits and 5 HRs in back-to-back starts on the road against AL East offensive powerhouses Tampa Bay and Toronto. Pitchers don’t get to take starts back, but if a fantasy owner would have benched him in those extremely unfavorable matchups he’d have gotten a 2.65 ERA out of Sheets to date.

Perhaps more appropriately given the initial reason for the optimism, Sheets has thus far put up a 2.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 2.14 BAA with 32 Ks in 36 IPs at home. Sheets has been a disappointment, but that’s a split worth exploiting if you have the roster space. He’s likely a free agent in your league, and while he’s been a bust overall to this point, Sheets is still worth spot starting in juicy matchups at home.

The other pitcher, Francisco Liriano, is coming off a strong 7-inning, 7-strikeout, 2-run performance against the Yankees and has a much more friendly overall line on the season. After a dominant winter ball and spring training, there was optimism Liriano had finally regained the pre-Tommy John surgery form of 2006. Nine starts into the season the Twins’ 26-year-old has a 3.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 59/19 K/BB ratio in 59.2 innings pitched. Not too shabby. As a Twins fan I can tell you that Liriano passes the eye test as well. He still gets flustered and loses his focus, but I haven’t seen Frankie hit 95-97 on the gun with his fastball or induce so many strikeouts looking with the slider and change since that 2006 campaign. It doesn’t look like luck, either. Liriano’s .339 BABIP is slightly above his career .314 mark and his 3.36 xFIP is only a hair above his current ERA. The force of nature we saw in 2006 may never return, but the 2.87 BB/9, 48.8 GB%, 75.8 LOB% and 8.90 K/9 make Liriano only a bit worse and still an upper-echelon starter. Health is a concern, but if you own Liriano it’s probably time to play the matchups and just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Looking under the hood of Vlad Guerrero and Adrian Beltre, after the jump …

The hitters I discussed back in May were Vlad Guerrero and Adrian Beltre, who have been no slouches. Vlad’s .339/.369/.583 triple slash with 12 HRs, 29 runs and 42 RBIs are good enough to place him 2nd in Yahoo!’s fantasy baseball rankings – a far cry from the 277 ranking he finished with after an injury-plagued season last year. Guerrero has always killed at Rangers Ballpark, and this year is no different. Thus far he’s posting a monster .385/.412/.688 at home and just .268/.303/.423 on the road. With sustainable .318 BABIP and 18.5 % HR/FB numbers, there’s little reason to think Vlad can’t keep impaling. The age and injury concerns are still there though, so if you can find somebody willing to pay for close top the current production I’d advise allowing them to do so.

Finally, we have the Red Sox big offseason acquisition at the hot corner. Given their resources, newfound emphasis on defense and Beltre’s combination of consistently mediocre offense and stellar glove there was little reason to think the $10 million, one-year deal would bite Boston – and there was even a good chance Adrian would far outperform it. Few parks in the league suppress power like Seattle’s Safeco, and moving to a friendly home field like Boston and into a significantly more potent lineup figured to rejuvenate Beltre. So far, the results have been good. After blowing up for 2 HRs and 6 RBIs on May 26th, Beltre is sporting a .341/.372/.517 triple slash with 5 HRs, 20 Runs and 33 RBIs. That .889 OPS is good for the second-best mark of his career, just behind the infamous 2004 contract-year campaign.

The current .387 BABIP is unsustainable for a guy with a career .293 BABIP, but it is to be expected that he would improve on that mark as a righty in Fenway after spending his career in Dodger Stadium and Safeco. You’d like to see a little improvement on that meager 4.8 BB% (though only 6.9% career) given the improved circumstances around him, but the 17.6 K% is holding steady. The BABIP may come down, but as the weather gets warmer and the lineup around him gets healthy again Beltre looks poised to maintain his current level of success. This isn’t a sell high situation, just enjoy it.

Andrew Thell thinks Pac Man is little more than a gluttonous, skirt-chasing jerk.

By Andrew Thell

- After am abysmal start to the season post-hype extraordinaire candidate Jay Bruce has quietly turned his season around in short order. Things bottomed out in late April when Bruce went 0-for-3 on the 24th to bring his line down to .180/.261/.377. Speculation of a demotion to the minors was in the air, but that was the last day Bruce would have an OPS below .700. Bruce busted out with 3 hits (2 doubles) the next day and closed out the last five games of April with 10 hits against just 2 Ks. One of the truly elite hitting prospects of the last five years there’s hope Bruce can continue to build on the turnaround – but he’s going to need to figure out left-handed pitching at some point if he’s ever going to make good on all that promise in the long run.

The splits leave a lot to be desired, with Bruce raking against righties to the tune of .299/.382/.583 but still doing a Nick Punto impersonation against southpaws with a .205/.311/.348 line. While Reds fans desperately hope their promising youngster can close that gap, fantasy owners can work with it. Most leagues have enough bench space to platoon one or two guys, and if you make Jay Bruce one of them you’re getting a star-caliber player two out of every three days.

- Speaking of elite prospects making good, Toronto’s Travis Snider was as hot as nearly any player in baseball prior to spraining his wrist over the weekend. The top power prospect in the minors a year ago, Snider had turned a dismal .155/.277/.338 April into a spectacular .378/.404/.711 May with 3 HRs and 10 RBIs through 12 games. Expectations need to be tempered for the 22-year-old, but make no mistake: Snider can be a fantasy asset this season. The notoriously conservative PECOTA pegged him for 21 HRs, Baseball Forecaster projected 23 HRs and Bill James, showing his characteristic optimism, expected a generous 26 HRs, 82 runs and 90 RBIs. The Toronto offense is better than anybody expected it to be, so if those numbers hold value in your fantasy league Snider is well worth stashing on the DL – the wrist injury doesn’t sound serious at this point.

- The Travis Snider injury stung a bit, but it was nowhere near the swift kick to the sac that was Andre Ethier’s freak broken finger in batting practice on Saturday. It doesn’t sound like anything serious, Ethier might even be able to avoid a DL stint if he can play through the pain, but it could not have come at a worse time. The Dodgers were rocking as a whole, but Ethier in particular had been on the tear of a lifetime. The Los Angeles right fielder‘s May looks like this so far: 12 games, .490 average, .537 OBP, .980 SLG (!), 1.517 OPS (!), 5 HRs, 13 runs and 19 RBIs. Overall, Ethier is leading the league in batting average, slugging, OPS and RBIs. He’s carrying fantasy squads right now, mine included, so let’s hope this dinged finger doesn’t sap any of that power he was flashing.

Checking in with two young stud pitchers, after the jump …

- The National’s called up their top reliever prospect, Drew Storen, their other first-round pick from 2009. The best reliever in college baseball the last two years, Storen earned the call with a stellar start to the 2010 season between Double-A and Triple-A (1.12 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 15 Ks in 16.0 innings pitched). Storen’s short-term fantasy ceiling is limited with Matt Capps being a more effective closer for the Nats than he has any business being. That said, the 20-18 Nationals don’t figure to remain in the playoff hunt once guys like Christian Guzman, Livan Hernandez and Pudge Rodriguez remember that they’re Christian Guzman, Livan Hernandez and Pudge Rodriguez. Capps looks like excellent trade bait if he continues to flash his 2006-08 form and I don’t expect him to be in the picture come late July. Tyler Clippard also stands in the way, but there should be no confusion on this: Storen is the Nats closer of the future. Those of you in holds leagues or where deep closer prospecting take place will want to monitor Storen very closely.

- Most of the talk surrounding the Braves this season has centered on rookie phenom Jason Heyward, but fellow youngster Tommy Hanson has gone from elite pitching prospect to elite MLB pitcher faster than anybody anticipated. The Braves showed remarkable restraint with Hanson last season, keeping him in the minors until June 7th. I watched Hanson’s first start last season against Milwaukee and was impressed as he struck out the side (including Prince Fielder) in the second inning. Even though he gave up 6 runs in the game he looked like the real deal. Hanson then finished the month of June with four consecutive wins in which he allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 23 innings and kept on rolling the rest of the way with a final line of 127.2 IP, 116 Ks, 46 BBs, .225 BAA, 1.18 WHIP and a 2.89 ERA.

Those were scary numbers from a rookie, especially with one who has this much room to grow. His improving changeup and strike-zone command have been impressive so far this year, and the final results are even stronger thus far with a 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 56 Ks in 50 innings pitched. Hanson has had a couple of rough starts in May, but I’ve been watching when he’s on the mound and I assure you there’s no reason for concern – we’re already talking about one of the best pitchers in baseball.