1) Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves:

Stephen Strasburg, below, gets more hype, but Atlanta’s right fielder of the future is poised to make the biggest impact this season. The Braves missed out on overpaying for Johnny Damon this winter, which means Heyward will get an opportunity to be the Braves starting right fielder on Opening Day. Heyward has been making the most of that chance, going 10-for-22 and reaching safely in all 10 games in which he’s played this spring and playing solid defense while just about locking up the job.

Heyward is a big man, but he’s not just a masher – he has all the tools to excel at the plate, in the field and on the bases. Standing at 6-4, 220 lbs. and born in 1989, Heyward already has the plate approach of a veteran, above-average speed and a cannon arm. Heyward is listed as Baseball America’s No.1 prospect and comes in second on Baseball Prospectus‘ list heading into the season. He’s the complete package and ready to make a big splash before his 21st birthday.

Jason Heyward photo credit: Icon SMI

2) Neftali Feliz, RP, Texas Rangers:

Feliz got his MLB debut last season pitching out of the bullpen for Texas and looked stellar doing it. The Rangers prized prospect made 20 appearances and struck out 39 hitters while allowing 8 walks in just 31 innings en route to a jaw-dropping 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and .124 BAA. Those numbers don’t lie either, as Feliz throws a fastball in the 96-100 MPH range that simply leaps out of his hand and also features a curve and changeup that should develop as plus pitches.

He will eventually be featured in Texas’ starting rotation, but with a lackluster spring it looks like Feliz will spend another season in a long-relief role in the Rangers bullpen before making the move to the rotation for 2011. Even so, fantasy leaguers should take note – he’s not in the same class as Strasburg in the long run, but there may not be another pitcher in baseball who can give you the per-inning upside Feliz offers.

3) Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals:

The No. 1 overall pick last year, Strasburg is the most electric young pitcher in baseball and the most hyped draft pick in recent memory. He features a 94-97 MPH fastball that tops out at 101, a giant power curve and a changeup with excellent command (195 Ks to just 19 BBs as a senior at San Diego State). His stuff is so impressive and MLB-ready that there was speculation he could see time with the Nationals late last year, but Washington wisely didn’t push their prized prospect. The speculation was on once again heading into camp in 2010, and the youngster poured fuel on the fire by starting the spring with five scoreless innings while regularly hitting in the high 90s on the radar gun and blowing by professional hitters.

Once again, though, the Nationals will prudently exercise caution and have the phenom start the season in the minors to get his arm ready for pitching on an MLB schedule (and will, conveniently, likely delay his service time in the process). We can expect to see the top pitching prospect in baseball make his debut this season, and it’ll be fun to watch with that 97-101 MPH fastball of his, but the fact that he’ll likely be in the minors the first few months bumps him down to third here.

4) Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles:

The first pitcher taken in 2008, Matusz had already reached the bigs by the end of his first full season and has been impressive this spring, striking out 10 batters over four innings in his first two starts (though also giving up four runs) before holding a largely-intact Phillies lineup to three hits and one run in five innings in his third turn. He’s polished for his age, featuring four strong pitches: a low-90s fastball, sharp curve, decent slider and great changeup – all of which he can throw for strikes. The Orioles should slot Matusz into the back end of their starting rotation from day one and he is capable of producing a respectable line from the get-go, though that park and the fact that he pitches in the AL East should severely limit expectations.

5) Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians:

After an offseason surgery on his right hand the Indians’ top prospect will start the 2010 season at Triple-A Columbus, but he’s fully healed and should be mashing for the big league club before long. Santana isn’t the best catcher prospect in baseball, that honor goes to the Yankees’ Jesus Montero (even if he’s unlikely to stick behind the plate), but he is the most likely to make an impact this season at the always talent-starved position.

While he’s unlikely to ever be a great catcher, unlike Montero, Santana does have a plus arm and the tools to stay at the position. However, it’s his offense fantasy owners are concerned about – and the kid doesn’t disappoint at the plate. The 2008 California League MVP and 2009 Eastern League MVP posted a .943 OPS, 23 home runs and a league-leading 90 walks last season. After a few solid weeks at Triple-A we could see a call-up for Santana, and that kind of plate approach should play well at the Major League level out of the box; 15-20 HRs with a solid .370 OBP isn’t out of reach.

ETB has a special treat for Detroit Tigers fans as we celebrate the team’s season-opener this afternoon against the visiting Kansas City Royals.

Curtis Granderson is the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter for the Tigers, who’ll sport an offense that should challenge a few all-time scoring records this season. He’s also one of the nicest guys in baseball. The son of two educators, he’s one of only a handful of major league players with a college degree. Curtis does indeed take academic achievement seriously: his Grand Kids Foundation charity is dedicated to spearheading educational initiatives for youths as well as bringing baseball back to inner cities across the country.

On the field, he’s one of the American League’s brightest rising stars. As the leadoff hitter in a revamped lineup that has added the potent bats of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria, he figures to score a ton of runs this season in addition to his typically stellar production across the board. He’s also one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and last season joined Willie Mays, Frank Schulte and Jimmy Rollins as the only players in MLB history to record at least 20 home runs, 20 steals, 20 triples and 20 doubles in a single season.

Granderson will start the season on the DL because of a broken finger suffered in spring training, but should be back on the field by mid-April. He recently took the time to sit down with ETB and answer question ranging from his desire to steal more bases, his blogging and future broadcast career, his entrance music, and more.

Empty the Bench: Everybody knows you’ve got some wheels—you stole 26 bases last year and only got caught once. Do you want to run more on the basepaths? Think you could be a 40 steal guy in the near future?

Curtis Granderson: I would love to run, and feel that the potential to steal 40 plus bases is a possibility. I’m still learning when to run, and how to run from our first base coach Andy Van Slyke, and have already learned a lot, but still have room to learn.

ETB: You struggled versus lefties last year, but I know you’ve been working on hitting left-handed pitching this offseason. What kinds of things can you do to prepare for lefties, and what can you change in your approach at the plate?

Curtis Granderson: I need to continue to face more lefties and continue to get repetitions against them and for the most part that’s the main thing I can do to get better hitting them. In the past, I have been able to hit lefties, but this past year, they figured me out. My approach has to be to go the other way against them like I have done in the past when I had success and continue to stay positive.

ETB: You had some of the best entrance music in baseball last year. You putting together a new set of tunes for 2008? Got anything in mind? What albums have you been listening to lately?

Curtis Granderson: As for my entrance music I’m going to most likely stay old school again. Old school never really can get old. New music I still need to grab the new Lupe Fiasco CD and add it to the collection, and see what new is coming out this spring.

ETB: You did some work with TBS covering the 2007 MLB Playoffs this year. Do you see yourself getting into broadcasting sometime down the road? What about it appeals to you?

Curtis Granderson: The broadcasting was a lot of fun and a great learning experience. I would like to get into it after baseball is done (hopefully a long time from now). The things I really liked about it are that I was talking about guys I’ve either played with or against, and able to remember what happened which made it a little bit easier to be able to commentate along side with Frank Thomas and Cal Ripken. Remember, I also got to commentate next to John Kruk and Dusty Baker over at ESPN.

ETB: You weren’t on the All Star Game ballot in 2007 because of Sheff, but you will be this year. How important is to you to make the All-Star Game? Is that a big goal of yours?

Curtis Granderson: It never has been a goal of mine to make an All-Star team. I think that the All-Star vote is a great accomplishment, but when you look at it, you are really only rewarding a player for what they have done for just over a half of a season. My goals are the end of the year awards which cover the entire season (gold glove, silver slugger, players association all-outfield team, etc…) If I do happen to make an All-Star team, I will be extremely happy and I hear it’s a great experience, but I’ll have to leave and get right back to finishing up that second half.

Much more from Mr. Curtis Granderson after the jump…

ETB: What do you take more pride or satisfaction in: making a key defensive play in center field, or getting a clutch hit at the plate?

Curtis Granderson: The defensive play, because your defense can never slump. The clutch hit is always a difficult thing to do, and that pitcher is also trying to make a clutch pitch. So you are going to lose there more than you win. With the defensive one, even after you might have just lost at the plate, you still may have a chance for redemption.

ETB: Under the bill of your cap you have the words “Don’t Think, Have Fun.” What’s that about? What does it mean to you?

Curtis Granderson: The saying means pretty much that. Just remember you are playing a game, a game I’ve played since I was 6 years old. The game is supposed to be fun, and keep it that way. There is no need to try and over think the game or the situation, because if you are thinking then you aren’t playing. When we were younger and went out on the field to just play a pick up game, there was no strategy. You try to hit the ball and catch the ball, and had the most fun doing just that.

ETB: You recently held your 1st annual celebrity basketball game to benefit your charity foundation, Grand Kids. Can you tell us just a little bit about the foundation, and how was the game? Any highlights? Of all your Tiger teammates involved, who’s the best b-baller?

Curtis Granderson: The foundation is to show the importance of education. Trying to raise money to provide the best education possible for kids. Right now we are working with Detroit and Flint Public schools in trying to do this, and plan on branching out further in the years to come. As for the game, the highlight was that the Flint team cut a 20 point lead down to 3 with 10 seconds left, and had a chance to tie it up, but missed a long three. Nate Robertson was showing his range with the three, and Dontrelle Willis was showing his vertical by dunking during halftime.

ETB: How was your trip to Africa this summer, and what was most memorable? Have you had the opportunity to travel much abroad, and what are a few places on your wish list?

Curtis Granderson: The trip to Africa was great. I had a chance to take my father and one of my friends with me, and we had a really good time. We were able to see the sites, the beautiful mountains, and cities. We also went on a safari and were able to see a bunch of animals (lions, elephants, snakes, buffalo, rhino, etc…). he main purpose of the trip though was to help promote the game of baseball throughout the world. I was asked to do a very similar thing in Europe the year before, and have been very thankful that MLB International has chosen me to do so. As for my wish list, I’d love to head to South America, the western cities of Canada, Spain, Japan & China, and also Australia, so hopefully year after year, I can check some of those off.

ETB: After the moves made this summer by the Tigers, are you feeling any added pressure to perform?

Curtis Granderson: There’s always pressure on you to perform, our team and myself always look for ways to improve and go out there and try to win day in and day out. The additions that we made only increase that hunger to try and go out there and be the best

ETB: Are you planning to maintain your blog again during the season?

Curtis Granderson: I’m still deciding the best way to continue the blog this year. It was a lot of fun and I enjoyed doing it. I just want to make sure I can keep it fresh, if we continue this season.

Tags: Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers

The Mark Teixeira Deal: This is a major coup for the Braves this season, but a bittersweet deal for some Atlanta faithful as they’re giving up a big chunk of their future. The folks over at Start Salty, who have spearheaded the ‘Be American !!! Join The KeepSalty Campaign’, are likely crying tears as big as horse turds in their domestic beers tonight. That’s because the biggest piece in this deal after Teixeira is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher/first baseman and one of the game’s most promising offensive prospects who should be a 30 HR/100 RBI hitter sooner than later. As they put it, “Saltalamacchia is currently in a slump, but is still the future of Major League Baseball.” However, nobody should be more upset right now than Philadelphia Phillies fans who have seen their team’s best player injured and their closest rival in the standings make immediate improvements. From my perspective, it’s still going to be a hard fought battle, but the Braves have overtaken the Phils for the Wild Card berth despite still being one game back.

The full deal has Texas sending Teixeira and Ron Mahay to Atlanta in exchange for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and a player to be named later (likely injured 22-year-old top pitching prospect Matt Harrison). Salty will likely start at first base in Texas for the balance of the season and makes an interesting fantasy addition, one who should certainly be picked up in all AL-Only leagues with his Catcher eligibility. Meanwhile, in addition to gaining Salty the Rangers got two legitimate top prospects in Andrus and the injured Harrison. Elvis Andrus is an 18-year-old shortstop with a very promising future.

Even though Teixeira is just 27 years of age, this is a move for the present. Atlanta wasn’t going anywhere with their glaring need of offensive production from first base (Their 1Bs have combined for a .211 BA, .270 OBP and .363 SLG- ranking last in MLB in all three categories). Tex is in the midst of a down year, but he has averaged 38 home runs over the last three seasons, is coming off of consecutive Gold Glove campaigns and is now in line for a monster finish to his season batting in a lineup that can give him more RBI opportunities and protection. Mahay is a mediocre middle reliever, but he will fill some of the void left by the Mike Gonzales injury.

The Octavio Dotel Deal: That Dotel was on the trading block and that Atlanta was a possible destination wasn’t news, but that the Braves were able to pull off trades for two of the more high-profile names available within a matter of hours was a bit surprising. It’s not confirmed who will be heading to Kansas City yet, but no matter what the fallout from the Royal’s perspective isn’t going to be too bad because there’s no way they were going to become competitive while Dotel was still effective and they already had two solid options for their closer of the future (Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria). Right now it looks like it will be AAA RHP Kyle Davies. The other possible names involved would be Yunel Escobar (unlikely), shortstop Brent Lillibridge, RHP Tommy Hanson or outfielder Jordan Schafer.

The move means that Joakim Soria will inherit closing duties for the Royals, and he needs to be added in all leagues. He’s posted tremendous numbers this season (2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP .194 BAA, 51 Ks and 10 SVs in 44.1 innings), has been on fire over the last month (2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15 Ks, 2 BBs in 11.2 innings) and he’s in line for around 10 SVs over the final two months.

On the other side of the ledger, Dotel loses most of his fantasy value. He’ll be a setup man for the Braves. Even if behemoth Bob Wickman were to be injured again or suffer a bad spell, Rafael Soriano would likely be the next in line to close out games. He’s been in a slump recently, but Soriano is their closer of the future, he’s had a solid season and he filled in admirably for Wickman earlier this season.

Atlanta may not be done yet, either. While Reports are trickling in that they are currently in negotiations for Bronson Arroyo of the Reds, looking to bolster the middle of their starting rotation.

The Ty Wigginton Deal: There were a number of teams in the market for the versatile Wigginton, including the Twins and Yankees, but the Astros won the auction on Saturday. They shipped extremely valuable middle reliever Dan Wheeler to Tampa Bay after watching Morgan Ensberg flounder for the last year and a half. Ensberg has been designated for assignment, but it’s a curious move despite Morgan’s struggles. He boasts a career OPS 70 points better than Wiggy, gets on base more, strikes out less and has a better glove in the field. Still, Ensberg has fallen a long way since his 2005 season in which he knocked 35 home runs and was one of the best 3Bs in baseball. Wigginton should post solid fantasy numbers for the rest of the season in HRs, RBIs and Runs with an offense that can better protect him and knock him in.

The Luis Castillo Deal: Ladies and gentlemen: let the Alexi Casilla era begin! Ok, maybe I’m the only one excited about the youngster whose skill set is eerily similar to a young Castillo. Hell, Ron Gardenhire will probably end up starting Nick Punto the rest of the season anyways. Castillo is a nice upgrade for the Mets defensively. He’s still rangy and has only committed 9 total errors over the last two seasons with the Twins. An extreme ground-ball hitter (He’s led MLB in ground ball percentage for the last four seasons), Luis pounds the ball into the dirt and excels at getting on base with infield hits. He should continue to do so for the Mets, and will score a bunch of runs if they hit him anywhere in the top of that order (Right now he looks like he’ll be plugged into the two hole . . . get your mind out of the gutter). He’ll also likely steal some bases if Rickey Henderson, Joe Reyes & Co rub off- he does have 315 career SBs, though a bulk of those coming with the Marlins. The Twins acquired outfielder Dustin Martin and catcher Drew Butera. Um, I don’t have much to say about those two.

Other moves and potential moves: The Phillies nabbed perennial disappointment RHP Kyle Lohse from the Reds (for LHP Matt Maloney), who doesn’t warrant much consideration in fantasy leagues but could be a capable 5th starter . . . The Red Sox are making a run for Eric Gagne, which would all but ruin his fantasy value, but would make probable closer Akinori Otsuke a valuable commodity again once he’s fully healthy . . . The Red Sox also want Jermaine Dye, but will not part with either Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson along with Wily Mo Pena in any deal . . . Felix Pie will not be on the move, and that’s a good thing for Cub fans. This kid is going to be a player in then ext few years . . . Dan Wheeler could already be on the move again . . . The Dan Wheeler trade means Chad Qualls will be the primary setup man in Houston and the backup for Brad Lidge as closer should he, you know, spontaneously combust again . . .

With th All-Star break approaching it’s a great opportunity to take the few minutes you would have put into lineup decisions and evaluate the state of your fantasy baseball squad. The most important thing you can do it to look at the overall standings and see where teams are clustered in a certain category. You’ll also want to take a look at where potential trading partners stand so you can make an offer that will get their attention. For example, if there’s only one other team ahead of you in steals and the next guy is 20 back, it might be time to sell off some of those coveted SBs to a team in the middle of the pack who’s desperate for a boost and will value them more than you. And that one guy in front of you? He’s probably not willing to pay a fair price for Brian Roberts. If there are three of four teams within 15 or fewer home runs, then buying low on a power hitter like Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Troy Glaus, Jim Thome, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira or Travis Hafner will serve you well. Given their talent and track records, we know the best part of their season is yet to come.

For today though, we’re going to take a look at pitching. Specifically, buy-low players who may even be on the waiver wire or in your free agent pool that can give your team a boost down the stretch. As the season gets further along WHIP, ERA, K/BB and the other ratio stats you may use for pitching will become more and more difficult to make up ground in so the time to take action is now. Those are also categories where most leagues tend to have logjams in the rankings as well. Here’s a short list of the guys ETB recommends looking at to right your pitching ship, starting with a strategy that can pay immediate dividends: grabbing middle relievers. Obviously, your league size and format greatly impact the value of these hurlers so take that into consideration before doing anything drastic.

Pat Neshek, RP, MN: There’s nothing wrong with stud closer Joe Nathan, but that didn’t stop Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire from saying Wednesday that Mr. Neshek has the mentality to be a closer. Nathan will be the man in Minnesota as long as he’s under contract (through next season), but this could be Gardy’s way of getting us used to the idea of Neshek taking the job in 2009. And of course, if Nathan ever went down for any reason this year Pat would instantly become one of the top five relief pitchers in fantasy baseball. After a stellar rookie season a year ago, it’s more of the same in 2007: a 1.74 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and a 51/13 K/BB ratio in 41.1 innings pitched. On top of that, he has 4 wins in those 41 innings, making him a must-own in all formats.

To put that in perspective, if a starting pitcher totals 20 wins and over 200 Ks in his 200 innings pitched he’s on the short list of Cy Young candidates. If he does it with a 0.73 WHIP he’s had one of the best seasons in the history of fantasy baseball. There isn’t a fantasy squad in existence that couldn’t use a Pat Neshek. Now he probably won’t go over 85 innings this season, but that just means you need to have two of three of these types to make up for it instead of one stud starter and one or two mediocre ones.

Neshek is representative of a whole class of middle relievers who may have dominant numbers and a low ranking and trade value simply because their limited innings lead to low W and K totals relative to starters. Don’t let the rank throw you, these are quality players who can make a major contribution in your ratios. Target guys like Hideki Okajima (0.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 2 Ws, 4 SVs, 37 Ks in 41 innings), Heath Bell (1.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 51 Ks in 49.2 innings), Rafael Betancourt (1.19 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 34 Ks and a K/BB of 11.33 in 37.2 innings), Scot Shields (1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2 Ws, 2 SVs, 42 Ks in 44.2 innings), Carlos Villanueva (2.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 Ws, 54 Ks in 59 innings) and Jonathan Broxton (2.86 ERA, 1.20WHIP, 3 Ws, 54 Ks in 50 innings).

If they aren’t available as free agents, trade for them. They’re often easy guys to convince another manager to ‘throw in’ as part of a package because the manager doesn’t think he’ll miss them too much. Three other super subs in this category that also have a good shot at taking over closer duties this season are Zack Greinke, Carlos Mármol and Rafael Soriano . . .

Zack Greinke, RP, KC: Greinke has all the talent in the world. He was the 6th overall pick in 2002 and posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2004 before succumbing to emotional problems over the last two years. He struggled a bit earlier this year as a starter, but has finally started to look like his old self after being moved to the bullpen. Over the span of ten June appearances he put up a very solid 3.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 20 Ks on an impressive .203 BAA in 17.2 innings and closed out the month by closing out his first career save on the 29th. Of late, he’s only allowed 1 run in his last 9.2 innings. Manager Buddy Bell has already named Greinke the Royal’s backup closer earlier this month which is significant. It’s almost a forgone conclusion that incumbent Octavio Dotel will be dealt, so you’re looking at a likely closer with great peripherals for the stretch run here- one who’s season numbers mean he’s probably unowned.

Carlos Mármol, RP, CHC: For my money, Carlos Mármol is the obvious choice to replace Ryan Dempster as the Cubbies closer. I don’t know why they’re so intent on removing a guy who has pitched well in the role and hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 as a starter since 2000, but The Pinella works in mysterious ways. Carlos struck out two in a perfect ninth to earn the save Wednesday against the Rockies, the first of his career. So far he has a 1.03 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, a .189 BAA and 38 Ks in 26 innings. Those are stellar numbers, even if he doesn’t inherit the job. He has the best stuff of anybody in that pen even when Dempster and Angel Guzman return.

Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL: Soriano has a 2.87 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and .178 BAA. Current closer Bob Wickman has a 4.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .263 BAA. Blubber Bob also had a terrible week, giving up three runs on Saturday and then blowing a save in a one-run game on Sunday. This isn’t exactly news though, he’s been hittable all year. While Wickman was on the shelf in May Rafael converted all four of his save attempts with style, putting up a 0.00 ERA, 0.12 WHIP and .038 BAA and cemented himself as the eventual closer if/when Wickman’s obesity comes back to haunt him. Wickman won’t lose his job just yet, but if the string of poor outings continues much longer Soriano is going to be very valuable. Rafeal’s peripherals make him worth owning in most leagues anyway.

Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD: A former first-round pick (24th overall), this kid has the stuff, but control has been a major problem so far in his young career. He’ll eventually be a very good starter for the Dodgers and I think it’ll be sooner rather than later. Billingsley threw seven innings without giving up a run in his most recent start as he continues to stretch out his arm in making the transition from the bullpen to the rotation. He did walk 19 batters in 42.2 innings coming into the game, so he’ll need to cut down on the free passes to be a fantasy starter. With his talent and working in a pitcher’s park as often as he will I don’t expect to see a huge departure from his season numbers (3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 53K in 49.2 innings) as he adjusts to his new role. For those of you streaming pitchers, he also has the added bonus of RP eligibility.

Tim Lincecum, SP, SF: He’s back, and he needs to be universally owned. After a terrible stretch in early-to-mid June, he’s put together 14 scoreless innings. In his last start Tim fanned 12 batters over seven innings, giving up just three hits and no walks. No young pitcher in baseball has a better shot to give your team a Francisco Liriano-esque boost during the stretch, so buy low while you still can. Despite giving up all those runs and walks over the last month his 1.23 WHIP is still solid and the 72 Ks in 66 IPs is very impressive. There’s no way he should be a FA in any league, but if he is add Lincecum now so you can start him tomorrow versus the weak St. Louis offense.

Yovani Gallardo, RP/SP, MI: I’m not going to go crazy on the analysis here because I think you know how I feel about Yovani. I think he’s good. Very good. I just mention him because he’s getting dropped left and right after losing his spot in the rotation after Chris Capuano came back off the DL and in his first relief appearance he gave up four runs (three earned) in 2 2/3 innings Tuesday. Despite that rough outing he has a 3.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 21 K with 9 BBs in 22 innings. He was 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts before Capuano came back, and the guess here is that he’ll be back in the rotation within a month. He deserves it more than Claudio Vargas, who’s ERA has risen all four months of the season from 3.68 in April to 4.05 in May to 5.24 in June and now stands at 7.50 in July after giving up 5 runs in 6 innings during his last start.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY: There’s a good chance that Hughes was dropped in your league after suffering a pulled hamstring and then a sprained ankle six weeks ago. He’s finally looking healed and I see no reason why he can’t pick up where he left off- in the 6th inning of a no-hitter. These are leg injuries, not arm problems, so if they have mended then Hughes is the same uber-prospect he was heading into the season (coming off a 1996 season with a 68/34 K/BB in just 146 innings between Single-A and Double-A ball) and deserves a roster spot in the coming weeks. Phil is scheduled to make his first rehab start Monday for Single-A Tampa after throwing batting practice Thursday without incident. Right now it looks like he’ll need about four rehab starts before rejoining the team, but when he returns he’ll still have that deceptive delivery, a mid-to-high 90s power fastball, two types of curve balls that clock in the low 80s and a hard slider.

Matt Garza, SP/RP: MN: Well, well, well. It looks like Terry Ryan is finally taking my advice, though perhaps a tad too late. The Sidney Ponson Blimp pulled a Hindenburg. It turns out Ramon Ortiz isn’t a very good pitcher. Scott Baker has been mediocre at best. Kevin Slowey needs more time to develop his offspeed pitches (ironic, I know). After trying every possible alternative, the Twins finally called up Matt Garza, one of the top ten pitching prospects in baseball. He threw two scoreless innings against the Yankees in his season debut this Monday and his next appearance will come tonight against the White Sox.

He’s so young that it’s no guarantee Garza will be fantasy viable, but his stuff is nasty and he deserves a chance to prove he’s made the necessary adjustments after a poor showing in 2006. Matt will be a number two or three starter in the MLB for his career, and could be a great end of the rotation guy for fantasy teams in 2007 down the stretch. As I’ve mentioned, Garza has absolutely dominated the minor leagues at every level and he has little left to prove there. The 23-year-old’s fastball hits 97 and his slider is just nasty. If he has indeed added a quality offspeed pitch, things will start to click and fantasy relevance will follow.

Ryan Braun, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers

THE add of the week has to be Ryan Braun, the new Milwaukee Brewers starting third baseman. He has some serious potential and versatility to go along with an everyday job and should be picked up in nearly every league. Braun is a player who could eventually hit 30+ home runs and steal 20+ bags, and it’s pretty hard to find that kind of production anywhere- let alone on the waiver wire. He was he 5th overall pick in the 2005 draft, and he should be able to hit for average and power right away.

The only real question about Braun is his defense, something you’re unlikely to care about as a fantasy owner. Last season Braun did earn a reputation as a big strikeout guy with 140 Ks and only 55 BBs on the year, but so far this season there has been marked improvement (a 11/15 K/BB in the minors). He was hitting .353 with 10 home runs before the promotion, and has looked pretty good thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Braun hover at or around .300 for the remanined of the season with a ceiling of 20 homers and 10 steals. He got one of each Saturday, displaying a taste of things to come. The fact that the duo of Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino were just brutal before Braun took over also means that he’ll be allowed to work through any stuggles and should finish the year as the starter.

Oh, and don’t pick up the other Ryan Z. Braun, the Royals reliever. I just don’t think he has the same home run and stolen base potential.

Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins

Hot news off the wire: today’s Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting that struggling starting pitcher Ramon Ortiz will be replaced in the rotation by uber-prospect Kevin Slowey. Those sneaky devils over at Yahoo! snuck him onto the waiver wire last week, so he’s probably a free agent in your league- especially since he’s extremely underrated by most pundits. While Ortiz is likely headed toward middle relief to help out an injury plagued bullpen, Slowey will make his first career start this Friday. It’s high time for the move. While Ortiz came out hot to start the season, he’s sporting a bloated 10.97 ERA this month and, well, he’s not that good of a pitcher anymore. Slowey is worth an add in all AL-only leagues and 12-team+ mixed leagues. He’s a control freak who features a fastball, slider and changeup trio of pitches that has a high probability of translating. The best thing about this kid, though, is that all he does is throw strikes. With just five walks in 64.1 innings (for a 57/5 K/BB ratio this season, and a 235/30 K/BB ratio in 220.2 career innings), the Brad Radke comparisons are apt, but I think Slowey has a lot more upside. his control is amazing, but those 57 Ks along with a 1.54 ERA and .200 BAA show this kid is the complete package.

Now if we can just get Matt Garza up here, the Minnesota rotation will become one of the youngest and most talent-laden out there. The 2008 rotation could look something like this: Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, BOOF! Bonser, Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey. That’s exciting. Unfortunately, Twins GM Terry Ryan, while excellent at his job, has a long history of favoring veteran mediocrity over youthful upside or flashy moves. At this point though, it makes a ton of sense for the Twins to call up Garza and move Scott Baker and/or Glen Perkins for offensive help at third base and left field. Wily Mo Pena and Morgan Ensberg perhaps?

Most casual fans at this point have to be wondering how Matt Garza has now been passed up for two straight jobs, with Scott Baker getting the call two weeks ago. Garza entered the year as one of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and he’s still right up there, but he’s been running his mouth. He took offense to the Baker call up and started publicly complaining about the way the Twins organization has been treating him. He also bristled at the suggestion that he needs to work more on his offspeed stuff before joining the rotation. Garza has a 3.21 ERA and 53 Ks in his 56 innings so far, so despite the belly aching it may still not be too long before we see him with the big league team if Carlos Silva blows up like we all expect him to.

Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros

I hope Hunter Pence is gone in your league, but if not you need to go grab him right now. The kid just looks like a natural at the plate and he’s produced from everywhere in the lineup that Astros manager Phil Garner has tried him. In 27 games (104 at-bats) to start his career, Pence is hitting .365 with 4 home runs, 18 RBIs, 7 doubles and 3 triples. That’s good for a sizzling 1.006 OPS (.400 OBP, .606 SLG). Oh, and he’s sprinkled in 3 steals for good measure. Over the last month he’s been one of the most productive players in baseball, and he’s proving the value of using waiver priority on highly-touted rookies. It’s looking more and more like a two-man race between Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence for the NL ROY award. What I’m trying to say is: this kid is for real, so try to get him if you can, or hold on if you’ve already got him.

Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

The news here is that Gallardo has been added to the Yahoo! fantasy baseball player pool, and he’s been a popular add thus far. We mentioned Gallardo earlier this season in a prospect profile, and he’s done nothing to diminish my excitement since then. Last Tuesday Yovani gave up just one run in six innings while striking out 10 batters for AAA Nashville. There was some talk that he could get the call if Ben Sheets was unable to go tonight due to lingering blister problems, but Sheets is pitching.

It will likely take a combination of one or two Brewer’s starters suffering injuries or falling apart in the near future before we see Gallardo, but the kid is going to force himself onto the big league roster sometime this season. Even if injuries/implosions don’t happen, I just don’t see how the Brewers can’t call this guy up by the All-Star break. He’s certainly worth a speculative add in all deeper mixed and NL-only leagues, and every keeper league that he’s available in. Yovani has Tim Lincecum-esque potential. The 21-year-old is now 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a .177 opponent’s batting average and a 76/18 K/BB in 54.2 innings pitched. With a fastball that hits 93 MPH, paired well with a hard-breaking curve in the mid-to-high 70s, I firmly believe his skills will translate to the MLB level immediately.

Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees

At this point, most people know about Phil Hughes. The 2004 first-rounder by the Yankees was fantastic in the minors prior to a call up last month. He had a rough first start versus the Blue Jays, but followed it up with an impressive outing against the Rangers in Arlington. He was in the 7th inning of a no-hit bid when he heard a pop in his hamstring that was supposed to keep him out four-to-six weeks, causing thousands of fantasy owners to drop the young stud. As a pitcher though, the leg injury should have little long-term impact on his promising career. When he returns he’ll still have that deceptive delivery, a mid-to-high 90s power fastball, two types of curve balls that clock in the low 80s, and a hard slider. This was the guy who posted a 168/34 K/BB last year in just 146 between Single-A and Double-A ball and was 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 17/4 K/BB in the minors this season.

Unfortunately, he rolled his ankle while throwing off a mound this week, but the early reports are that it should be a minor setback, and that he was already throwing off a mound was a good sign. “I haven’t been told anything other than it may be a little more than a couple days,” Tankees Manager Joe Torre said. “It’s just bad luck for him and bad luck for us.” The MRI came back negative, so for those of you who waited this long: don’t panic, hold onto the kid. He’s still on pace to return in mid-to-late June and should post valuable win and strikeout totals to go along with strong peripheral numbers (he had a 1.03 WHIP before the hammy strain) when he does. If he’s been dropped by an impatient owner in your league, now is the time to scoop him up.

UPDATE: After the Yankees came out and said they had received the MRI results and the ankle sprain to Phil Hughes was no big deal earlier this week, GM Brian Cachman recanted today and said that the MRI results actually revealed a Grade 3 sprain and he will need at least 4-6 more weeks before he can take the mound again. According to the Yankees beat writer Peter Abraham, “Given that will take Hughes an additional four weeks to get his arm ready to pitch, we’re looking at 8-10 weeks before he is back on the mound. And that’s assuming everything goes well.”At this point, dropping him makes a lot of sense if you have another guy you need to get on the DL. If not though, just keep him stashed in that DL spot until there’s a move that makes sense.

Chicago Cubs

The big news out of Chicago today is Lou Pinella’s announcement that current closer Ryan Dempster will become a starter in the coming weeks in a move to bolster the rotation. In the mean time, he has been asked to mentor 24-year-old Angel Guzman who will then take over the job. While Dempster has a mediocre 4.43 ERA, he has converted 9 of 10 save opportunities this year while posting a 1.03 WHIP and 21 Ks in 20.1 innings. That makes the timing of this seem a little bizarre, especially when you consider that Ryan hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 as a starter since 2000.

Whatever, fantasy owners just want to own the guy who finishes games for the Cubs. Anybody who owns Dempster should be handcuffing Guzman to him immediately. Guzman had a 7.39 ERA in 56 innings last season, but he does have the stuff to finish games. The only question is, does he have the mental makeup?

Atlanta Braves
The Fat Man from The Jake returned from the DL on Tuesday and took the closing duties back from Rafael Soriano, and Soriano certainly kept the seat warm for him. While Wickman was on the shelf Rafael converted all four of his save attempts in May with style. He’s put up a 0.00 ERA, 0.12 WHIP and .038 BAA this month and cemented himself as the eventual closer when/if Wickman’s obesity comes back to haunt him. There was some thought of giving the job to Mike Gonzalez, who did a nice job in the role for Pittsburgh last season, but he’s their best lefty out of the pen and they’d like to keep him in middle relief. Gonzalez was also showing decreased velocity before hitting the DL last week, further securing future save opportunities for Soriano. Rafeal’s peripherals make him worth holding onto for the moment anyway, and in deeper leagues he’s worth speculating on for future saves.

Cleveland Indians

Joe Borowski’s claim on the job is tenuous at best, and the fact is he’s simply not that good. He blew just his second save of the season this week but those numbers are UGLY: 7.94 ERA, 1.53 WHIP .279 BAA and a 2/1 K/BB. Certainly are not closer numbers. One or two more outings like this week’s blown save, where he gave up 4 ERs to Oakland, and he’ll likely be out of a job. Fernando Cabrera looked stellar earlier this season, but he’s stumbled of late and his ERA has risen to 4.24. That likely means that Rafael Betancourt will inherit the job if Borowski doesn’t shape up. Betancourt is worth a speculative add in AL-only leagues and ultra-competitive mixed leagues. I’m not buying yet, but he’s on the watch list.

Houston Astros

Dan Wheeler has been solid as the Astro’s closer thus far, converting all 9 of his save opportunities since he was named Brad Lidge’s replacement (though he did blow one on April 3rd). Wheeler has given up a few home runs and made some games closer than they needed to be, but on the whole he’s done an excellent job. That was to be expected though, he’s had an ERA below 2.52 and a WHIP under 1.15 in each of his three seasons since coming over from the Mets organization. So far, he just hasn’t given Phil Garner any reason to consider going back to Brad Lidge.

So why am I talking about this situation? Well, Lidge’s stellar track record prior to Pujol’s moonshot in the NLCS two years ago simply can’t be ignored. He was perhaps the best closer in baseball for a few years, and he still has the same physical stuff. His ERA is back down to a respectable 3.18 and there are already some in the Astro’s organization whispering about moving him back. His value to the team and on the market would dramatically improve. Wheeler has earned the job and he’ll have to blow a few saves in ugly fashion in order to lose it, but Lidge’s presence and recent play will cause Garner to have a shorter leash with Wheeler.

Kansas City Royals

It’s a common fallacy that you don’t want closers on bad teams. But think about this: when the Royals win games, how often to they win by more than 3 runs? Not too much. Perhaps that’s why they’re 10th in saves as a team, and the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the league (I told you Valverde was for real, didn’t I?). Dotel has been activated from the DL, and the Royals are saying they plan to ease him back into the closer’s role. That means Joakim Soria should still be good for another couple of saves for the time being, but he’s starting to implode. Still, don’t drop him just yet- Dotel could easily aggravate the injury yet again before he can displace Soria.

Dotel was a popular sleeper coming into this season after a strong spring, but his oblique strain has bumped him off of a lot of radars. He’s worth an add in competitive 12-team and AL-only leagues right now. There’s also some speculation that Doc Oct will be dealt to a contender before the deadline, so he could have a ton of late-season value (I’m looking in your direction, head-to-head players). Oh, and again, DO NOT drop Soria just yet.

Oakland Athletics

Huston Street, the 2005 American League Rookie of the Year, is on the shelf with pain in his right ulnar nerve. He’ll be eligible to return a week from today, but the kid still hasn’t thrown a pitch since going on the DL. He’ll start throwing this week, and if he’s pain free we can expect to see Street back in a hurry. However, if he experiences more discomfort there is a very real possibility he’ll be going under the knife. I know, it sucks.

Justin Duchscherer will be filling in for the time being, and he was pretty decent doing that last year. He’s worth an add in all formats. Unfortunately, he was all set to go on the DL himself with an ailing hip before duty called. He got a cortizone shot and should be OK to close out some games this week if need be. Until Duchscherer is able to pitch save duties will fall to Alan Embree, Kiko Calero and Jay Witasik, but I don’t recommend adding any of them. They all looked pretty bad in the 9th inning last week, but I guess Calero would be the guy they turn to permanently should Street and Duchscherer be unavailable for a long stretch.

Philadelphia Phillies

Moving Brett Myers was a stupid decision. I mean, it was REALLY stupid. But I’ve given my rant on this. There’s no way that Philly will be maximizing Myer’s value if he only manages to pitch 70 innings this year, but more and more it’s looking like he’s out of the rotation for good this season. The Phillie’s loss is a fantasy player’s gain because Myer’s is suddenly one of the most valuable relief pitchers in all of baseball.

While it’s a sticky situation having Tom Gordon lose his job due to injury, he wasn’t pitching well and I think Philadelphia will be far better off with him performing 8th inning duties. Gordon could also be on the move to a team desperate for closer experience, so keep an eye on The Inquirer’s sports section. If there’s any chance you can land Myers cheap, do it now. Maybe his owner in your league thinks he’ll lose his job when Gordon comes back. It ain’t gonna happen. I’ve had a chance to see Brett close out some games and he’s been dominant. The on-screen radar gun hit 98 versus Toronto this weekend, and he has a 0.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a measly .140 BAA over the last three weeks. Ill.

Texas Rangers

Eric Gagne is back, recording his second save of the season this week while still not allowing a run this season. Call me crazy, but I’d still rather have Akinori Otsuka. I just can’t imagine Gagne returning to his dominant form of 2002-04, let alone staying healthy the rest of the season. His velocity is way down and he’s a perpetual injury risk. I urge everybody to hold onto Otsuka or pick him up where available. Gagne certainly has some value right now, throwing four scoreless innings with a W and S since returning. He is the Texas Rangers closer right now. Just don’t get too comfortable.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jeremy Accardo recorded his 4th save of the season tonight, and he’s looking locked in right now. Jason Frasor was the first choice of Toronto skipper John Gibbons, but he clearly didn’t have the psychological makeup of a closer. Of course, Accardo’s probably gone in any kind of competitive league. If not, grab him now of course. BJ Ryan is out for at least th rest of this season and Accardo should remain the closer for the remainder of 2007. He’s now pitched four times in the last five days, and it looks like the Jays are going to lean on him. Accardo still represents a great buy low candidate though because very few are valuing him as a decent closer on a team that should eventually provide plenty of opportunities.

You want to stay ahead of the game though? Casey Janssen is next in line if Accardo falters. Janssen hasn’t been racking up the Ks, but he sure has been effective. With a 0.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season he’s worth keeping an eye on, especially if Gibbons wears Accardo out.

It’s still early in the 2007 fantasy campaign, but there are already trends worth taking note of. There are also some to ignore. Nobody likes to check the standings in the morning and see they’re in the middle of the pack or lower, and now is about the time when impatient and inexperienced owners are starting to buy into this season’s rankings and numbers.

The fact is, three and a half weeks simply isn’t a large enough sample size to draw significant statistical conclusions. Sure, pitchers may be showing decreased velocity, position players may have earned everyday jobs, and closers may have lost them. You can react to that kind of information. But with players who have hundreds or thousands (or 8,109 in the case of one guy on the list) of at-bats, any stretch of 70-80 plate appearances is meaningless. For a proven player who has terrible 2007 numbers, just keep this in mind: if this slump happened mid-season nobody would even notice.

ETB takes a look at some prime early-season candidates to buy low, sell high and stick with:

Buy Low

Michael Young: Young has only 13 hits in his first 79 at-bats for a miserable .165 average, .195 OBP and .486 OPS. I own him in a league with some close friends, and you better believe the offers are coming in. I haven’t even considered one of them. Why? Forgive me if I’m a lot more concerned with the fact that Young has hit .297 in 3,755 major league at-bats than I am with his last 79. This guy is a professional hitter who could compete for the batting title any given year. If the Young owner in your league is the least bit concerned, make an offer. Even if you can buy him at the modest discount 80 cents on the dollar, do it. There’s no way he finishes below .295, so he’s in line for some serious regression to the mean and you have my personal guarantee this guy will be just fine.

Garrett Atkins: Atkins hasn’t been living up to that early third-round draft status yet. No doubt, his owner in your league is concerned that last year may have been a bit of a fluke. His .260 BA, 10 runs and 9 RBIs are giving him some concern. The day off yesterday isn’t helping. Remind that owner that he only had 13 homers while batting .287 in 2005 and that he has a career BA of .273 outside of Colorado and he may start asking if you’re interested. Well, sure, maybe you’d be willing to do him a favor and take the risky prospect off of his hands for 5th or 6th round pick. You’ll be smiling all the way to the bank. He’ll be hitting third all season ahead of Matt Holliday and Todd Helton, where he’ll see a lot of pitches to hit, score a ton of runs and where he had a .353 BA last season.

Brian Roberts: Roberts was off to a terrible start, started to rebound in the last week, then missed two games over the weekend with the flu. As a result, his rank may never be lower. His blend of speed and power is extremely rare and valuable, especially at 2B. Second base may be the most difficult position to staff this season and when 2007 is over it wouldn’t surprise if Roberts is the second-best of the bunch. The guy only played in 138 games last season and stole 36 bases, so 40 steals should be a given if he’s healthy all year. It looks like Brian is coming on over the last week, so make some last ditch efforts to buy low while you still can.

Gary Sheffield: Well, if there has ever been a buy-low candidate Sheffield is it right now. We’re talking about a guy who is physically healthy and has a 456 career home runs and .296 lifetime batting average. While he started his major league carer in 1988 and is 38 years of age, I’m just not worried about Gary physically. He works incredibly hard and is as healthy as an ox. However, his owner in your league has to be wondering if time has caught up with him and thinking about moving Sheff or dropping him outright. There may never be a better time to pounce. Yeah, he’s 10-for-67, but he may still have the quickest hands in baseball, only Barry Bonds has a better eye and Gary will hit 30 homers. He looks to be heating up, so buy right now if you can. With a regression to his 20-year mean sure to come, there’s plenty of time for a 100 RBI and .300 BA season.

Sell High

Eric Byrnes: We’re not going to spend a lot of time on these guys because the veteran fantasy owners know a fraud when they see one. If you look up the definition of ’streaky’ in the dictionary, it’s likely to feature a color picture of Byrnes. He’s just not the real deal. Talk him up a bit and see if you can get another useful player in return for Eric, because you may not be starting him in a month or two. Byrnes likely won’t improve on last year’s totals, so his value may be as high as it will get right now.

Torii Hunter: Torii is the poster boy for why fantasy baseball can never emulate real baseball. Hunter has made a name for himself as the best defensive outfielder in the MLB over the last decade. That’s put Torii in his fair share of All-Star games and headlines over the years, but the fantasy value simply isn’t commensurate. It’s always easier to trade a guy with this kind of name recognition though, so peddle his .304 BA, league-leading 12 doubles, 4 stolen bases and 15 RBIs now. He’ll finish around .270, with 90 RBIs, 80 runs, 20-25 HRs and 13 SBs.

Juan Pierre: Maybe I’m letting a personal bias leak in, but when I watch Pierre I just don’t see a good baseball player. He’s a one-trick pony who will only make a significant contribution on one or two categories. Once you’ve owned Juan for a while, you come to realize just how limited he is- perhaps that’s the reason he’s playing for his third club in three years. The notion that scarcity makes stolen bases the most valuable star in fantasy is simply false. They are very valuable, but they can’t make a player great on their own. Every category is equally important. I mean, we don’t draft closers in the first few rounds, and saves are even more rare than SBs. That said, I know there’s an owner in your league who is just dying to add a steals specialist to his team. He’s convinced that he’s in on the stolen bases secret and he’ll be buying low no matter the rank. Indulge him and trade Pierre for an outfielder who can contribute significantly in several categories.

Sit Tight

Carlos Lee: The book on Lee is that he’s a first-half player who trails off late in the season. Many fantasy columnists will tell you to sell high. But in looking at his splits you see that he hits about .275 in April and May and then goes on to hit .296, .293, .287 and .296 in the remaining months of the season. The only thing that declines are his power numbers. However, hitting in Texas and behind Lance Berkman should change that. He signed a big contract and will want to perform in the first year of it. Don’t listen to anybody who tells you he’s bound to fade, hold on to Lee.

Curtis Granderson: I mentioned it before the season, but with his speed on the base paths and the dearth of steals in MLB right now, his power from the leadoff spot, and an improving lineup behind him young Curtis was a great low risk/high reward pick. Grandy could still be good for 25+ steals this season, but in a lineup that looks sharp and added Gary Sheffield he will score a ton of runs. On top of that, Granderson has displayed greater patience at the plate and some nice pop in his bat. Be happy you got a nice OF cheap and don’t try to move him just yet.

Aaron Hill: Hill’s production may seem like it’s coming out of nowhere, but it isn’t. He has been one of the top prospects in baseball for the last two years. On top of that, Aaron is hitting in what could be one of the better offensive lineups in baseball. The addition of Frank Thomas should really help. Hill went 4 of 5 with a two-run homer and a pair or doubles to lead the Jays to a 7-3 win over the Red Sox on Monday night. You may be thinking ’sell high’ right now. The odds are that nobody wants to overpay for a guy you picked up out of the free agent pool. Considering there is reason to believe Hill can contribute at 2B and SS all year for your fantasy squad, just hold onto him.

Álex Ríos: Just like Hill, Ríos should greatly benefit from hitting in a lineup with Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas and Vernon Wells behind him. A great physical specimen with tremendous natural ability, Rios looked like a legit contender for the batting title early in 2006. He hit .361 in April and May, and shot up the fantasy rankings board. After several minor injuries he never regained that lofty status for the remainder of the season. In 128 games he was still good for a .302 BA, 17 HRs, 82 RBIs, 15 SBs and 68 runs. As I’ve said before, this will be Rios third full season and I expect him to post very useful numbers all year. Sit tight.

After Felix Hernandez’s first two starts, he was looking like a legitimate threat to Johan Santana for the AL’s Cy Young. King Felix had given up no runs, struck out 12 in the opener and then pitched a complete-game shutout in Boston. Then Minnesota came to town and Felix removed himself after just two outs in the first inning with tightness in his throwing elbow. Since then, the baseball world has been waiting with baited breath, hoping one of the best prospects in the last decade would be OK. According to John Hickey at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Hernandez threw on the side before Wednesday’s game and came out of it fine. Hernandez will throw a bullpen session this weekend and is scheduled to start in Yankee Stadium on May 4, the first day he’s eligible to come off the disabled list.

We saw the likes of Francisco Liriano, Jared Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito (He counts) and Justin Verlander make huge impacts as rookies in every fantasy league around the country in 2006. Daisuke Matsuzaka was drafted among the top 20 pitchers in your league, but who are the undrafted fantasy rookies that will help teams bring home the trophy in 2007? The first may be arriving this week. Wunderkind Phil Hughes will get the starting nod for the Yankees tomorrow, and just three weeks into the season he represents the first call up who could have the type of impact the aforementioned pitchers did last season. None of the guys featured below have had a chance to contribute at the Major League level yet, but given the opportunity I expect each of these four to be ownable in all fantasy formats.

Of course, with such unproven products these suggestions come with a caveat of caution- don’t go dropping Erik Bedard for them just yet. If you haven’t done so, you may want to pause now, put in a waiver claim for Hughes (He was entered into the Yahoo! system last night), before checking out the rest of ETB’s top pitching prospects:

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Lincecum is my favorite of the prospects out there. I’ve picked him up in competitive mixed leagues with rotisserie scoring and feel good about it. The kid has the type of electrifying stuff that could translate immediately to the MLB. There is little doubt that, health permitting, he will be a stud in the coming years. This guy is just dominating Triple-A hitters, going 3-0 with a silly 0.36 ERA, 32/11 K/BB ratio and a .113 BAA in 25 innings at Fresno. Not bad for a guy who was drafted 1408th overall. Lincecum threw 6.1 innings of no-hit ball in his most recent start Monday, but he did display a slightly disconcerting lack of control in walking six batters, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch and allowing his first run of the season. On the positive side, Lincecum did an admirable job of working around the baserunners while throwing just 53 of his 97 pitches for strikes.

The Giants would like Tim to continue to stretch out and build confidence in the minors, but if he keeps up like this San Fran won’t be able to justify keeping him in the minors for too much longer, especially if they continue to score the fewest runs in baseball (63 on the year). Expect to see him by the All-Star break. Rotisserie NL-Only leaguers will want to make an add now, and the rest should keep him on speed dial (Or the watch list, whichever is more convenient). Giants fans should be drooling at the prospect of a Matt Cain-Tim Lincecum one-two punch.

Philip Hughes, New York Yankees

Hughes is a spectacular talent and a rare product of the Yankees farm system (to contribute for them, at least) who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy and in the AL East pennant race. The AL ROY chase still goes through the players already in the bigs: Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. However, by some accounts Hughes was perhaps the top prospect still in the minor leagues, and he could have a say when all is said and done. There was even talk that Hughes could make the initial Yankees roster, which started to make even more sense as New york pitchers went down like flies in spring training. GM Brian Cashman wanted him to get more seasoning, but it sounds like George Steinbrenner just couldn’t wait until Christmas morning to open his present.

“My exact goal … was that hopefully we’d be able to keep [Hughes] down all year, but reality kicks in when you play a season. We have a team need and we need a starter.”

Phil was a 2004 first-rounder by the Yankees who has done nothing but excel in the minors so far. He features a deceptive delivery and a mid-to-high 90s power fastball, two types of curve balls that clock in the low 80s, a hard slider (That he seldom uses) and is working on a changeup. You wanna hear a ridiculous stat? Hughes recorded a 168/34 K/BB last year in just 146 between Single-A and Double-A ball. Sick. He’ll be starting against a pretty decent Blue Jays offense on Thursday, so give him a few starts before jumping to conclusions. He’s currently 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 17/4 K/BB in the minors. Everybody should be making an add if they have a flexible roster spot.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

Bailey is the most highly-touted pitching prospect in baseball right now, and thus the most likely to be owned already in your league. He’s become legendary since his high school days, when he struck out 536 batters in 298 innings. Homer gave up one run and four hits in five innings Friday, resulting in a 1.76 ERA in 15 1/3 innings on the year. While the 11/8 K/BB ratio will need to improve before a call up, he could be in line for a late May or early June start in the majors. Once he does get called up, expect Bailey to stay in the Reds rotation for the remainder of the year. The 7th overall selection in the 2004 MLB Draft, Homer has done everything right so far and looks like the most polished of the prospects on this list. He’s been striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 in the minors and could pay big fantasy dividends. He throws a fastball that reaches the upper 90s with good movement, a curve ball that takes 15 mph off and has a good break on it and is developing a changeup.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani is the dark horse of the group and doesn’t warrant an add in most leagues. Still, keep an eye on the young guy’s minor league numbers and the Brewer’s starters. If they suffer a few injuries in the rotation, we could be seeing him sooner rather than later. Yovani Gallardo (Pronounced Yovani Gallardo) gave up just one run and one hit in six innings on Wednesday, recording a win for Triple-A Nashville. Gallardo has struck out a minimum of seven batters in all of his four starts, and he’s 3-1 with an impressive line: 2.35 ERA, 14 H and 33/7 K/BB in 23 IP. In 2006 Yovani fanned 188 in 155 innings. Ben Sheets has a notorious injury history and was pulled from this afternoon’s start with a strained groin. If the Brewer’s do dip into the minors for a starter, it will be for Gallardo.

Lincecum and Yovani are neck-and-neck for the National League’s second best pitching prospect behind Homer Bailey. The early plan was to have Carlos Villanueva as the ‘6th starter’, but he has pitched poorly, making Gallardo even more enticing for fantasy owners. Don’t make any adds just yet, but with his excellent command, if Yovani is called up he has a great shot at making immediate contributions. Gallardo’s fastball hits 93 MPH, which he pairs well with a hard-breaking curve in the mid-to-high 70s.

It wasn’t much–two singles in four at bats with an RBI–but for new Detroit Tigers DH Gary Sheffield, his performance last night in Los Angeles against the Angels left him hopeful that his dreadful start to the season could soon be a thing of the past.

After the Yankees sent him to Detroit for a package of minor-league prospects (headlined by pitcher Humberto Sanchez, who is now out for the year and will require Tommy John surgery), Sheffield was cited as the power hitter that would make Jim Leyland’s dangerous lineup even deadlier. Like proven sluggers around the league, however, the vet hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start fans were hoping for; going into tonight’s game, he’s batting a paltry .143 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and a .206 SLG. In a word, ugh.

He’s repeatedly insisted that his slow start has nothing to do with the injured wrist that kept him on the sideline for most of the 2006 season in New York, and that it’s “all between the ears.” Leyland, Sheffield, and his teammates think he’s about to turn a corner:

“I felt like myself,” he announced, after his 2-for-4 night. “When I feel like this, I feel like there are big things to come.”

If this was the game that turned Sheffield from ice-cold into about-to-get-red-hot, there’s nothing that could be more important for the Tigers. “He’s one of those guys that when he gets going, watch out,” said Sean Casey. “He’ll get 20 hits in 25 at-bats, and they’ll all be scud rockets.”

Manager Jim Leyland saw it in batting practice, and again when Sheffield went up the middle with every swing in Monday’s game. Everyone noticed the second-inning laser Sheffield hit, the one that fortunately didn’t hit anyone on its way to center field. “He’s getting real close,” Leyland said. “You can tell. He’s almost there. He’s going to break loose. There’s no doubt in my mind.”

MLB fantasy players out there would be foolish to give up on Sheffield this early. Sure, he’s no young buck anymore, but we’re talking about a guy who hit 34 HRs, 123 RBIs, and batted .291 just two short years ago. Once he figures out his swing and settles into his role as the designated hitter, there’s going to be ample opportunities for offensive production in his three or four slot in the lineup. Remember, he’s batting behind rising-star Curtis Granderson (.307, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .342 OBP) and early AL-batting title contender Placido Polanco (.358, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .391 OBP). Now’s a great time to float some lowball trade offers while his value is the lowest it’ll be all season.

Howard Eskin, a radio personality from the Philadelphia area, was pressing Manuel about his inability to get angry and motivate the players. That’s when Manuel told Eskin that he would demonstrate his ability to get angry, in the privacy of his manager’s office. Manuel darted off the podium, inviting Eskin to follow. Eskin met Manuel’s challenge, and Charlie could be heard screaming, “We’re going to win!” around the locker room and beyond. Later, during Freddy Garcia’s interview cameras suddenly moved away from that night’s starter back to Manuel as he could be heard yelling more at Eskin such as, “I been growed up!”, “I grew up a long fucking time ago, you asshole!” and “What’s it to you any fucking way?” Classy.

Manuel – nicknamed “Red Devil” when he played in Japan because of his explosive temper – challenged his questioner to meet him in Manuel’s office, where, Manuel promised, he would display temper.

And, there, Manuel did, for several minutes, loudly enough to be heard from 20 yards away through closed doors. Manuel’s point: He does get mad, and he resented what he considers the radio host’s continual unfair criticism of Manuel.

After that confrontation, Manuel, on his way through the clubhouse, resumed hollering at the radio personality when they locked eyes. A Phillies coach and a media relations representative ushered Manuel, spewing profanity, out the back of the clubhouse.

Then this news came out today: Manuel is moving Brett Myers from the front of the rotation to middle relief. He’ll be the primary setup man for closer Tom Gordon. You read that right, the Phillies are moving their opening day starter and staff ace to middle relief. I’m having trouble coming up with any precedent for this kind of move. Just two weeks into the season it seems shockingly early to press the panic button, especially with a head-scratcher of this magnitude. I mean, the guy has given up some runs, granted, but he had a solid spring and he’s been their best starting pitcher for the last two seasons. Did I mention he started opening day?!

Even though his ERA is sky high, he’s only had three starts and in those has recorded 19 Ks in 15.1 innings. I really don’t know what to make of the move, I’m befuddled, but for Brett’s fantasy owners and Philly fans everywhere we just have to hope this insanity doesn’t last. Scratch that, the insanity can stay. I like that. I just want Myers back in the rotation.

The Major League Baseball season is long and filled with peaks and valleys for every player. It’s a six month marathon. I’ll be the first to advise any fantasy MLB player not to take the first few weeks seriously. There’s just too many variables and too much randomness in any given baseball game or series to accurately weight the results of a given game or series. Michael Young’s batting average is still moving up and down nearly 50 points each game. Carlos Lee quadrupled his home rune total and doubled his RBIs in Friday’s Herculean performance.

Still, it would be equally foolish to completely ignore the evidence at hand. We can learn things from limited samples, even just two weeks. With that in mind, ETB tries to assess the early returns on MLB pitchers to determine if the results are or are not indicative . It’s a very sound strategy to keep 10-15% of your roster fluid all season in order to, and a bulk of these players will be factor into the decision making you do with that portion of your roster.

Facts:

Jose Valverde, Closer, Arizona

I own Valverde on a couple of fantasy squads, and I’m currently feeling pretty good about it. He’s sporting 6 saves, a 1.35 ERA, and 8 Ks in just 6.2 innings (7 appearances). I don’t think what we’re seeing is a fluke. He is immensely talented and has the track record and pitches to be a dominant closer. Those who owned Jose last season know that the final stats don’t show the whole story. He finished with an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, but a remarkable 69 Ks in just 49.1 innings showed his strikeout capability.

The closer position is the most psychologically charged in baseball, and when guys pitch poorly in the role they tend to melt down completely. Such was the case with Valverde in 2006, as he had an aweful 7.71 ERA, 2.23 WHIP and .346 BAA against in in May and even worse 12.66 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and .319 BAA in June. He fell apart. However, in every other month of the season his ERA never rose higher than 3.24, his WHIP never breached 1.00 and his BAA never climbed over .200. Thats pretty impressive in my book. The guy is just 27, and if he can eliminate the bad stretches he went through last season Valverde could wind up the best bargain closer in fantasy baseball this season.

John Maine, Starting Pitcher, New York Mets

As I’ve mentioned, Maine plays for the Mets, so he’s obviously going to get a chance to rack up some wins. However, but the kid’s other number might be pretty serviceable, too. He only had a few starts last season, but the .212 BAA was very impressive. So far this season he’s got a 1.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a meager .154 BAA with 10 Ks in 11.2 innings. Those are fantastic numbers that will obviously be impossible to maintain. However, Maine was highly touted throughout his minor league career for a reason. He’s a good pitcher. He’s 25 years old and ready to bust out, and this could be the season.

The start versus Philly was unfortunate. John came unraveled a bit and gave up 6 BBs, but still managed to record 4 Ks and only give up 2 runs in 4.2 innings. Right now I own Maine on one team. I’m starting him versus average and below average offenses and benching him versus the stronger offensive teams in the league, However, I’m also making an effort to see how he deals with those offenses, because with the run support he’s receiving (15 runs in two games), a win would be had any game.

Nate Robertson, Starting Pitcher, Detroit

We’ve talked about this before, but 500 innings mark is to a starting pitcher what the third season is for an NFL wide receiver or the age of 27 is for an MLB power hitter: the time when breakout seasons typically happen. Nate threw surprisingly well over the first half of 2006 only to regress into mediocrity in the second half, but he’s a young guy and that’s to be expected. So far this season he’s been extremely impressive and forms one of the more promising young pitching tandems in Major League Baseball along with Verlander and Bondo.

In 20.0 innings (three starts), Nate has posted 2 wins, a 1.80 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a .247 BAA to go along with a surprising 14 Ks in 20 innings. The strikeout total is uncharacteristic (137 Ks in 208/2 innings in 2006), and those numbers may never blow you away, but he is durable and certainly capable of posting a 14-win, 3.75 ERA season. His peripherals should also be serviceable. In a 12-team league, he’s a must add at this point. Detroit it going to win a lot of games, and Robertson could be the pitcher of record in 15 of those.

Rich Hill, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs

For vigilant fantasy owners, Hill didn’t exactly fly under radars this season, but he wasn’t given much love in his average draft position. Well, anybody who grabbed him there has to be delighted, and anybody who’s in a league where he’s available needs to stop reading now and pick him up. This guy has a fantastic array of pitched and a sky-high ceiling. Hill is one of the better young strikeout pitchers in baseball, and his September of last season was eye opening. In that month he posted a 1.93 ERA and 3-1 record, but more importantly Rich notched 50 Ks in just 42 innings.

Hill has been utterly dominant in his first two starts of the season. He has (only) 11 Ks in 14 innings, and a 0.64 RA (1 ER), 0.57 WHIP and .089 BAA (4 hits). That’s just sick. I initially made some conservative estimates for Rich and tried to publicly temper my privately massive expectations, but I’m ready to go out on a limb for the 26-year-old. 200 Ks, a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. That’s my prediction right now. Not too shabby from a guy who was drafted as a reserve in most mixed leagues. The fly-ball-to-ground-ball ratio is always something to keep an eye on, especially in Wrigley Field, but Hill has the stuff to be a great fantasy pitcher if he continues to pit it together in 2007.

Frauds:

Dan Wheeler, Closer, Houston

Wheeler makes this portion of the list because I fully expect him to be more effective than he has been thus far. His 7.20 ERA, 1.80 HIP and .348 BAA won’t stand. This guys is just too good. Since joining Houston as a middle reliever in 2004 his ERA has never finished above 2.52, his WHIP hasn’t been higher than 1.15 and his BAA has been below .222. Wheeler has been a model of consistency in that span and was a prime candidate to take over the closer role last season during Brad Lidge’s struggles.

Astros manager Phil Garner handed the closer job over to Wheeler, who has sported an ERA of 2.46 in his 161-inning career in Houston and he won’t look back. Lidge has been just terrible since giving up the massive home run to Albert Pujols in the NLCS and I don’t see him recovering his former dominance. If it’s possible, buy Wheeler now at a bargain basement price and expect him to be a top-15 closer for the remainder of the season with numbers comparable to those he has put up for his entire tenure in Houston.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels

In looking at Santana’s stats, one thing jumps out. His opponents have been Texas, Cleveland and Boston. All three of those teams finished 2006 in the top 10 in runs scored. They’re powerhouse offenses. He won’t be tossing against lineups of that quality every game, rest assured. Moreover, Santana is on a team that should be giving him plenty of run support, and he won’t be asked to carry too much of the load behind Weaver and Lackey. He’s got great velocity and movement on all his stuff, and his numbers have steadily improved the last two years.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. When all is said and done we project an ERA that will be around or below 4.00, 150-170 Ks and 12-16 wins. I have in on one team and haven’t started the young guy yet. I just didn’t think he would be able to mow down those lineups. But Santana will see his fair share of easier matchups, and in those games I am still confident starting him. Consider Ervin a spot starter for the time being, but if he gets on a roll he’s a solid number three starter in mixed leagues, regardless of what’s happened so far.

Erik Bedard, Starting Pitcher, Baltimore

Bedard is an ETB favorite, and I fully expect him to make good on all the promise he showed earlier in his career. He’s now fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that temporarily derailed his career and Erik is throwing as well as ever. I’ve started him all three games (due to a 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 14 Ks in 12 innings versus the Yankees last year) and absorbed his 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP thus far. I’ve also enjoyed his 14 Ks in 14.2 innings. This is a classic case of early-season struggles, and should be considered indicative of Bedard’s overall talent.

No doubt his owner in your league is nervous and perhaps ready to make a deal. Offer some trades in the hopes of acquiring him on the cheap, and I offer my personal guarantee you will not be disappointed. I’m currently making a bigger trade offer the the same owner over and over and treating Bedard like a throw in for the deal so that he doesn’t get suspicious about my man crush on Erik himself. Hopefully he isn’t reading this.

Boof Bonser, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota
I watched the entire game against Tampa Bay last night, and despite the stats I came away extremely impressed. The kid has great stuff, and his curve ball is becoming a legitimate strikeout pitch. As Yahoo!’s Andy Behrens said, “Boof Bonser had eight Ks in 5.1 innings against the Devil Rays on Sunday before the wheels came off. Or more accurately, before the fly balls began to leave the field of play. He has wicked movement and surprising velocity on his breaking stuff, and a mid-90s fastball.” Bonser has been a highly regarded prospect for years, and last season he started to fulfill that promise. He was stellar after the All-Star break in 2006 and wound up pitching game two of the ALDS for the Twins at just 24 years of age. His second half (2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in September, 84 Ks in 100.1 innings on the year) had me excited for 2007, and I’m not at all dissuaded by the mediocre start. At 25, he could be ready to put up an entire season of those second half numbers.