Empty the Bench

By Andrew Thell

Unless you play playoffs fantasy football, and I strongly suggest that you do, the dust has settled on another season of our imaginary NFL leagues. Experiences will obviously vary based on success and wagers recouped, but I think it was one of the finest campaigns in recent memory. Everybody has a sob story (or two, in my case), but the fantasy gods were surprisingly even-handed this season. For the most part smart, diligent owners who weren’t afraid to take risks were rewarded. That’s exactly how we want it to go.

Regardless of how the fates treated you, there was much to be learned from the season. It’s easy to simply dust your hands and walk off into a sunset of fantasy hoops, and I intend to do just that, but first I want to take a few minutes and see if we can’t glean some lessons from the imaginary season that was. Hopefully it’ll provide some insight now, and feel free to bookmark and come back as your 2010 draft approaches for a refresher. The easiest way to tackle it is probably the same way you’ll approach filling out your rosters on draft day next summer: position by position.

Quarterback

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had fantastic seasons, that much is undeniable. Tom Brady was no slouch either, though he didn’t quite meet draft-day expectations. The owners who drafted that trio with their first- or second-round pick may not have experienced the same success. That’s because savvy owners who waited and took Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger got nearly identical or even better production at a fraction of the cost – and were in turn able to pair that production with a Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson.

There’s a flip side, of course. Those who waited and went into the season counting on a Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, or Matt Ryan were left high and dry. Depending on where they were taken, those were all solid picks on draft day given the information we had to work with. They just didn’t pan out. It happens. The lesson? Don’t draft a big name in the first round, but also be sure to draft more than one solid option. You can afford to wait on your starting QB for a few rounds, but be sure you don’t wait too many for a backup that you’d be comfortable starting. There’s a good chance you’ll be doing just that more than once.

Running Back

Year after year rookie running backs remain some of the biggest draft-day bargains. And they are a tremendous source of value most seasons, but we need to recognize these guys as what they are: unknown commodities. Lottery tickets. They could blow up just as easily as fizzle out. This year I was scrambling in every draft to get Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy and Shonn Greene so I could install them as my RB3 or even RB2 in some cases. That didn’t work out so hot.

Stocking up on lottery tickets is great, but just remember to treat them as such. Don’t spend the dog food money on ‘em. Put yourself in a position to take advantage of a breakout season or merely unexpected depth, not one one where you’re crippled if they don’t pan out.

The three biggest surprises with the most fantasy impact this season were Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice. We at ETB were bullish on Johnson and Ray last summer, but I certainly didn’t see Rice finishing fourth among all RBs or CJ’s history-making season coming. And Nobody saw Charles’s breakout coming. Nobody. One thing I will say is: go out of your way to target RBs who can not only rush the football but also be extremely effective in the passing game, and not just in PPR leagues. They will stay on the field and get touches, and opportunity is everything in fantasy football. Even if their team is down by 20 points in the first quarter they can still have a huge fantasy game. Even if their team’s offensive line and defense completely fall apart, they can maintain big season-long value. Other than that – draft incredibly athletic, lightning quick guys who will run between the tackles better than anybody could have possibly imagined. Works every time.

2009 fantasy football lessons from the WRs, TEs, DEFs and Ks after the jump …

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By: Zachariah Blott

We’re not quite halfway through the 2009-10 season, but a number of NBA writers out there are already handicapping the MVP race. I’d say it’s a little early to do so, but it looks like I’m already late to the table. Either way, let’s dissect the post players whose names have been tossed around in the MVP discussion; perimeter players to come.

Who’s Most Likely to Win

The NBA’s MVP award is very much like college football’s Heisman Trophy. You know the drill: look at the top glory teams, find the players on these teams who the highlight-minded media were talking about before the season started, make sure these players have a high overall ranking in one or two glory statistics, replay their highlights ad nauseum, and predictably hand one of them the award. This is why we end up with Mark Ingram carrying home the NCAA’s top individual award over Toby Gerhart and Ndamukong Suh, while Tim Tebow somehow even gets mentioned with them.

That being said, here are the top nine post players in the MVP discussion, listed in order of their likelihood of winning. I’ll include the key information anyone in the media or at your local sports bar would probably deem relevant.

1 – Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
30 ppg (career high), 6.4 rpg, 1.2 spg, Denver is 21-13 and made the Western Conference Finals last year, his defense has improved, he’s never won one and deserves it.

2 – Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
25 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.1 spg, 39% 3FG%, Dallas is 23-11.

3 – Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
16.9 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 2.5 bpg, Orlando is 24-9, he won the 2008 Dunk Contest and 2009 Defensive Player of the Year Award.

4 – Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
20 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg, San Antonio is 20-12, he has four rings.

5 – Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors
23.8 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg, Toronto will make the playoffs (unlike last year), he was part of the Redeem Team that won gold in 2008.

6 – Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
16.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, LA is 27-6, he plays with Kobe Bryant.

7 – Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
28.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.5 spg, OKC is 18-15 and improving, his defense has improved.

8 – Amar’e Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns
20.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 0.8 bpg, maybe it’s time he deserves some of the credit Steve Nash always received.

9 – Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
15 ppg, 7.6 rpg, Boston is 24-8, he plays with passion and is the C’s leader.

Blott breaks down these nine MVP-caliber studs after the break…

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By Brian Spencer

1) Blake Griffin, F, Los Angeles Clippers: A fractured left kneecap incurred in the waning days of preseason has Griffin shelved until at least late January, though there’ve been very few positive reports out of Clipper Land and we’re starting to wonder if this thing might drag on even longer. Obviously, there’s no reason to rush him back to the court, but it’s an inauspicious omen for a franchise that never seems to catch lightening in a bottle, much less a modest break. The 20-year-old was quite impressive during Summer League and preseason play, so hopefully this is just one of those things and not a sign that Griffin is injury prone.

2) Hasheem Thabeet, C, Memphis Grizzlies: The native Tanzinian has a long, long ways to go. It’s much too early to label him an out-and-out bust, but unless your name is Darko (who by the way still blames his failed NBA career on everybody except himself) second-overall picks aren’t supposed to look as immediately lost, overmatched, and overwhelmed as Thabeet has in limited duty. You can’t teach height, and Thabeet has plenty of that to spare at 7-3, but right now it’s hard to imagine him ever becoming more than a shot-blocking specialist with an extremely low ceiling on offense.

Key Per-Game Averages: 10:54 minutes, 2.9 points, 3.3 boards, 1.1 blocks

3) James Harden, G, Oklahoma City Thunder: His well-trimmed beard isn’t the only thing that’s made Harden an early fan favorite in Oklahoma City. This team has been quietly building up its perimeter depth over the past year or so, and though for now Harden is playing second fiddle to starter Thabo Sefolosha off the bench, his hustle, smarts, and willingness to do whatever is asked of him has entrenched him in Scott Brooks’ regular rotation. Though it may not be until next year, it’s only a matter of time before Harden slides into the starting lineup and sticks there. A future All-Star? Probably not, but has the look of a significant piece on a winning team.

Key Per-Game Averages: 22:23 minutes, 9.8 points, 38% FG, 3.4 boards, 2.5 assists, 1 triple, 1.1 steals

4) Tyreke Evans, G, Sacramento Kings: Phenomenal. This kid has done it all and more for the resurgent, exciting Kings, and is flirting with historic, rare rookie pers of at least 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. As I said earlier this month, Evans has all the physical tools and mental intangibles to a be a perennial All-Star in this league for the next decade. What’s more, he seems like a winner and has been the driving engine behind his team’s respectable 14-16 record. Nobody thought the Kings would entertain realistic playoff hopes this season, but then few thought Evans would dominate as quickly as he has either.

Key Per-Game Averages: 37 minutes, 20.3 points, 46% FG, 5.1 boards, 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals 3.1 turnovers, 78% FT

5) Ricky Rubio, G, Minnesota Timberwolves: Let’s be honest: the Timberwolves totally botched this. It’s like the Chargers drafting Eli Manning with the first-overall pick of the NFL Draft, but deciding to keep him instead of trade him even though he was adamant about not wanting to be there. Rubio clearly had/has no interest in playing in Minnesota, but GM Randy Kahn stubbornly stuck to his guns, drafted him, and refused to trade his rights to any number of alleged suitors. Now, Rubio is in Europe playing for Regal Barcelona for at least two seasons (and currently averaging an underwhelming 5.1 points, 3.3 boards, and 4.9 assists) and the T’Wolves are stuck waiting for some kind of return, sometime down the road, on a top-five pick. It’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Rubio’s trade value; sure, he’s still considered a top NBA prospect, but winds change direction quickly.

Jonny Flynn to Earl Clark after the break…

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By: Zachariah Blott

Something seems fishy when you look at which NBA teams are well ahead of the pack in terms of defense this year. Only three squads boast a Defensive Rating of 100 or better (league average is 106.7) : the Celtics, the Lakers, and the Bobcats. Whereas Boston and LA are storied franchises in large markets that can afford $85 and $91 million worth of talent, Charlotte is slumming it with the Kings and Pacers of the world by only having $65 million of player payroll.

What the Bobcats do have that the big dogs don’t, however, is Larry Brown. Brown is the nomadic Jedi of NBA coaches, having been with more teams than your mot … never mind… let’s just say he’s been employed by a lot of teams. He’s the only person to have coached seven different franchises into the playoffs, and the only person to have coached an NCAA Champion (Kansas, 1988) and an NBA Champion (Detroit, 2004). Brown moves around so much, his rookie coaching gig in 1972 (Davidson College) was cut short before they played even one game because he accepted another job with the ABA’s Carolina Cougars.

So why do colleges and professional teams keep signing Brown if he has the commitment anxiety of Two and a Half Men’s Charlie Harper? Because a) he’ll coach any rag-tag group of losers, and b) he can turn said group into a solid, defensive unit.

Right now, Brown has the always lowly Charlotte Bobcats playing defense like the All-Star filled squads that won the last two NBA titles. And although their 10-14 record is similar to last year’s 35-47, Michael Jordan’s team is on pace to secure their first-ever playoff berth. Examining the Four Factors, we can start to see how this squad is getting it done.

Larry Brown photo credit: Icon SMI

Effective Field Goal Percentage

The Bobcats have held opponents to a .486 eFG%, which is better than the league average of .497 and ranks 11th in the NBA. Both the 44% FG% and 33% 3FG% surrendered by Charlotte are low, so they’re making it difficult for teams to score both inside and outside. Of particular note is that Bobcat opponents are forced to shoot 26% of their shots from behind the arc, which is considerably higher than the league average of 22%, so they are keeping teams from getting easy looks at the basket.

Turnover Percentage

As good as Charlotte is at forcing bad shots, they’re even better at forcing bad decisions before the shot. Their opponents turn it over on 15.8% of possessions, the second-best mark in the league which averages 13.8%. It’s hard to score against a team when they’re busy taking the ball out of your hands.

Defensive Rebound Percentage

Most teams that do well clearing the glass after an opponent’s miss have a dominant big man or frontcourt, teams like the Magic, the Cavaliers, and the Spurs. Guess what, Charlotte is right in the middle of these three at the top of the league for defensive rebounding. Whereas the average missed shot is boarded by the defense 73% of the time, Charlotte gets their hands on 76% of them. A lot of this obviously has to do with leaper extraordinaire Gerald Wallace and his 12 RPG.

Free Throw Rate

Make it a perfect four for four. Charlotte is better than the league average at keeping opposing players off the free throw line, as well. The Bobcats give up .210 FT/FGA, well below the .231 median mark. This means their defense isn’t just forcing other teams to stay out of the paint for shots and rebounds, they’re doing it without getting their paws all over them. By the way, only two teams other than the Bobcats are above average in all Four Factors on defense. Think you know who they are? They’re named at the end of this article.

Looking at Larry Brown’s role players, then and now, after the jump …

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By: Zachariah Blott

Next up in our ongoing “The Kids are Alright” series is those lovable New York Knickerbockers, who thanks to their 76er and Net cohorts in sub-mediocrity are actually holding down 3rd place in the Atlantic Division at 8-15. This despite no real concern with winning games this season: as regular ETB contributor Zachariah Blott details below, this team has both eyes on the summer of 2010.

More from the Kids are Alright Series:
- Sacramento Kings
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Detroit Pistons
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Philadelphia 76ers

Why They’re Worth Watching:
The Knicks run – a lot. The Knicks shoot threes – a lot of threes. And guess what, their opponents do exactly the same thing. Nothing screams “something cool could happen at this game tonight” more than two teams running wild and letting loose from behind the arc for 48 minutes. There’s only one type of team many wives and girlfriends are willing to watch, and this is it.

Thanks to second-year head coach Mike D’Antoni, the guy who made the run and gun so fun for the Suns (not to be confused with this awesome 80’s punk band), the Knicks are sprinting out to the fourth-fastest pace in the league and attempting the second most bombs from downtown. (They have the second most threes attempted against them, as well.) In fact, New York actually ranks just ahead of Phoenix in both speed and three-point attempts, but the Suns are actually quite good at getting points out of their trips and connecting on the trifectas. That’s due to talent, not effort, which is where the true beauty of watching the Knicks comes from.

They’re just not a talented bunch, but they go at it at a circus pace with a circus style. You know how watching the Little League World Series is so much more satisfying than MLB because the odds of something good or bad happening are 50-50? That’s the Knicks. They could go 10-for-39 from deep in a crushing defeat, or they can hit 13-of-25 triples to go with 26 assists. You just don’t know because it’s still Isiah Thomas’s idea of talent playing a make-or-break system.

As far as individual talent goes, there are a few Knicks worth paying attention to. Second-year gunner Danilo Gallinari has hit a league-high 64 triples this year on 45% accuracy, and his power forward frame (6-10, 225) allows him to chuck them up with virtually any defender in his face. He’s very active on defense, so he’s able to make some positive things happen on that end as well.

Big man Al Harrington looks and plays like he should be as exciting as Kevin Durant, but instead he’s been mired in 16-20 ppg okay-ness for the last 5 years. Center David Lee has done well in his energy role for D’Antoni (18 ppg, 10 rpg) and is hoping for teams to throw the kind of money at him that they would at someone who put those numbers up in a conventional system – good luck with that, David. Rookie PG Toney Douglas looks like he has a place in this league, and GF Wilson Chandler, though wildly inconsistent, has talent and potential to spare.

The Knicks’ present and future after the break…

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By Zachariah Blott

Advanced statistics is one area that baseball is lightyears ahead of basketball. Bill James was a baseball fan who popularized sabermetrics, the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, back in the 80’s through his tome-like Historical Abstracts. Sabermetrics is named after SABR, the Society for American Baseball Research.

Since then, more meaningful statistics—like OPS and WHIP—have entered the public consciousness and appear on basic player stats pages, Michael Lewis’s well-read “Moneyball” (which is being made into a movie starring Brad Pitt) has shown millions how some clubs use sabermetrics to their advantage, and two pitchers who combined for 31 wins and 0 saves can win the 2009 Cy Young Awards without ruffling many feathers.

In hoops, however, the basic stats still rule what are supposed to be in-depth discussions. Points, rebounds, and assists are the end-all, be-all for many fans and analysts of the game. It’s so bad, All-Defensive Teams are usually made up of a) whoever lead the league in blocks, b) whoever lead the league in steals, and c) household names who average over 20 PPG and are considered good defenders. Rarely does the phenomenal defensive talent who doesn’t fill up the stat sheet in some area make the First Team (Shane Battier still has only made two Second Team lists [Ed. Shameful]).

As much as I love the aesthetic beauty of the game that first attracted me to basketball, I try to find and use meaningful statistics whenever I have a real conversation about what makes a team or a player good or bad. The basic stats do paint a fuzzy picture of what’s happening, but it’s some more advanced stats that add the details we should be looking for.

This article is meant as a primer to help basketball fans understand a little more deeply how to evaluate team and player performance. The first two stats, ORating and DRating, are the most necessary tools in evaluating how well a team scores and defends, and the Four Factors get into the nuts and bolts of what affects ORating and DRating. At the end of the article, I’ll list a few resources where you can find additional information about these numbers or the more advanced statistics that are out there.

Offensive Rating (ORating)

What it measures: How many points a team scores per 100 possessions

Formula: (Points scored * 100) / Possessions

Current NBA leader: Phoenix Suns, 114.5

League average: 106.7

A little more depth: ORating gets at the heart of the question: How good is this team’s offense? Whereas the Warriors average 108.8 PPG and the Trail Blazers only score 95.8, Portland actually has a better offense. Golden State runs the fast break all game and scores 106.5 points per 100 possessions, while Portland is content to walk it up the floor and score 109.1 per 100. ORating eliminates the pace at which a team plays, so that we can see how efficient they are at scoring.

If you’re curious how you can figure out the amount of possessions a team used in a game or season, here’s the common formula that estimates it pretty close: 0.96 * (Field Goal Attempts – Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (.44 * Free Throw Attempts))

Defensive Rating (DRating)

What it measures: How many points a team gives up per 100 possessions

Formula: (Points surrendered * 100) / Possessions

Current NBA leader: Boston Celtics, 99.1

League average: 106.7

A little more depth: Similar to ORating, DRating tells us how good a team’s defense is regardless of pace. Pacers’ opponents score 101.7 PPG, whereas the Pistons’ opponents only manage 94.9. However, because Indiana keeps things moving quickly and Detroit barely moves, guess who has a 104.5 DRating and who’s at 107.5. If you can’t follow what I’m getting at, it’s actually harder to score against the Pacers on a given possession.

The Four Factors to NBA success, after the jump …

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By Brian Spencer

Chris Douglas-Roberts, GF, New Jersey Nets

With the Nets currently on pace to finish with a record of 4-78, there’s little to cheer about in Jersey this season (shocker!). Most of the players on this roster know they’re expiring-contract stopgaps who won’t be asked to return next season, but cocky second-year swingman Chris Douglas-Roberts is making his case as a long-term fixture in the Nets’ brighter future.

At times CDR reminds me of a poor man’s Paul Pierce: a rangy 6-7 guard brimming with confidence who’s as comfortable putting the ball on the floor as he is launching it from outside, and who plays good-not-great defense but has the skills to get better (like Pierce did early in his career). The Nets’ second-round pick in ‘08 was upset about falling out of the first round on draft day and vowed to make those who passed on him regret it, and right now it’s hard to argue with his contempt; he’s outplaying many of the guys taken ahead of him and, though hindsight is always 20/20, arguably should have been a lottery pick.

Now, most players in the NBA are capable of putting up nice boxscores when given the burn, and obviously CDR’s contributions haven’t yet translated to wins. Numbers can be deceiving. Still, I like what I’ve seen in the few Nets games I’ve masochistically sat through: he’s not afraid to make mistakes, has a nice stroke on his jumper, and has the look of a guy who can take and make big shots down the road when the Nets actually have them to be taken. Through 17 games, CDR is averaging 16.9 points (up from 4.9 in his rookie season) on 46% shooting, 4.7 boards, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals in 36:30 a night.

Carl Landry, FC, Houston Rockets

The Rockets desperately needed somebody, anybody, to step up and fill the considerable frontcourt void left by the absence of Yao Ming (injury) and the retirement of Dikembe Mutombo. They brought 29-year-old David Andersen over from Europe (he’s the team’s tallest player at 6-11), and… that’s it, at least for now. With the lack of size in the middle seemingly compounded by the loss of Ron Artest to LA, most predicted doom and gloom in Houston this year, but so far GM Daryl Morey’s pack of hard-working tweeners is defying expectations and positioning themselves to at least be in the playoffs conversation.

It’s been a team effort, but credit 6-9 forward Carl Landry as one of the most significant pieces of this overachieving puzzle in Houston.

Now in his third season after being taken at the top of the second round in the 2007 NBA Draft, Landry is proving size doesn’t always matter and has hustled, banged, and scored his way into early Sixth Man of the Year contention. After scoring 20+ points in five of his last eight games, Landry has nudged his points per to 16.3 (7 more than last year, despite averaging just 4 more minutes), and is doing so on just under 57% shooting. That makes him the team’s third-leading scorer behind Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks (and by the way, of the team’s top-five scorers only Brooks was a first-round pick, and he was taken 26th overall at that).

Let’s also not forget that Landry is tough as shit: he solidered through Game 3 of his team’s first-round matchup with the Jazz in ‘08 despite losing a tooth (later draining the game-winner), and last season returned to the court just a few weeks after being in a car accident and getting shot in the leg by one of the dudes who hit his car.

Diamonds in the rough in Golden State, Milwaukee, and Memphis after the break…

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By Zachariah Blott

I swear I planned on writing a version of this story before Greg Oden broke his kneecap on Saturday night. Since the oft-injured gentle giant went down yet again, the focus obviously has to be slanted more toward him, but there are enough other issues brewing in Portland to worry all those experts who picked the Trail Blazers as their darkhorse Western Conference champion (that would be everyone) and expected them to be in the Championship discussion for a while (same group).

Right before the injury, Portland had lost three games in a row in convincing fashion, all to teams that had much worse records; then they went to New York and stunk up the Garden in an ugly loss to the Knicks. They’ve looked out-of-sync for a while, so it’s finally time to figure out what’s wrong with Nate McMillan’s talented club because this isn’t the point at which people planned on exiting the bandwagon.

1. Greg Oden’s body won’t let him be the next Bill Russell: First it was a torn wrist ligament in high school that caused him to miss a month of college ball. Then it was the wrist not healing, a bulging disk in his back, an “off” hip alignment, a right leg that’s one inch longer than the left, and the rumor of at least one NBA team’s doctor having concerns about the long-term health of his knees. All of these issues existed before he was even drafted in 2007.

Since then? A tonsillectomy took him out of the Vegas summer league, that infamous microfracture surgery delayed his rookie season, a foot strain on opening night of his new rookie season caused him to miss two weeks, and he banged knees with Corey Maggette in February, chipping his knee cap, keeping him out of 15 contests. That brings us up to Saturday. In his 82nd career game, Oden went down with a broken knee cap, which will wipe out the remainder of what should be his third NBA season.

Greg Oden Photo Credit: Icon SMI

How big is this loss to the Blazers? GO was rebounding 21.3 percent of all missed shots while he was on the floor, just a hair behind league-leader Dwight Howard’s 21.5. He was blocking 7.2 percent of opponents’ shots while he was on the floor, well ahead of everyone, even Denver’s Chris Andersen. He was one of only four players in the NBA shooting over 60% from the field, and he was also connecting on 77% of his free throws. Sure, Oden was still figuring out how to stay out of foul trouble, but the same was true of Shaquille O’Neal 82 games into his career. There is no question that Oden had an extremely high ceiling as a dominant defensive force, and the team just had a meeting a week ago that stressed getting him more touches because he’s such an efficient scorer.

At this point, there have been so many ailments limiting his playing time that one can no longer write them off as fluke injuries unconnected to the others. Unfortunately, his talent is immense, but he now appears to be damaged goods. The loss of a defensive stopper in the middle who can fill up the hoop with ease is obviously tremendous.

Two more reasons the wheels have come off and what to do about it, after the jump …

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We see far more NBA players getting dunked on than we see players blocking attempted dunks. It happens, sure, but rarely when the dunker has a full head of steam in the open court, and oftentimes there’s a foul involved either way. That’s what makes this clean, incredible block on Tuesday night from the Detroit Pistons’ Jason Maxiell such a thing of beauty. (Keep in mind that though he’s generally not much of a shot-blocking threat as an undersized 6-7 power forward, Maxiell does have a history of dramatic blocks.)

This one’s dirty, kids. Just dirty.

By Zachariah Blott

Bill James, the godfather of Sabermetrics (the field that uses advanced math to analyze baseball), found a useful formula about 25 years ago. He discovered that a baseball team’s winning percentage could be estimated quite accurately by dividing runs scored, squared by the sum of runs scored squared and runs allowed squared. That is RS^2/(RS^2 + RA^2). This is called baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem.

Because points in basketball come about much differently than runs in baseball—what is the basketball version of a 6-1 blowout?—a formula to calculate winning percentage based on points scored and surrendered will be different.

Many mathematicians much smarter than me have looked at this over the years, and the exponent they found to work the best for hoops teams is 14 instead of 2. This means a basketball team’s expected winning percentage can be calculated with this formula: Points^14/(Points^14 + Opponents’ Points^14). Football’s exponent, by the way, is 2.4. These formulas with different exponents are still referred to as the Pythagorean Theorems of these sports.

The value of a formula that calculates expected winning percentage, when real winning percentage is already known, is in predicting future success. Teams that are doing much better than expected tend to fall down a bit after a while. Teams that aren’t winning as much as expected tend to improve.

The 2006-07 NBA season–regular and playoffs–provides some great examples of how this can work. The Heat were scoring 94.6 ppg, but giving up 95.5. Their expected winning percentage was 47%, but they actually won 54% (44-38). The returning champs got unexpectedly swept 4-0 in the first round of the playoffs.

Similarly, Dallas was scoring 100 ppg and surrendering 92.8 for an expected winning percentage of 74%. They actually won 82% (67-15), and also faced a shocking first round exit. On the other hand, the Spurs won 71% (58-24), but were expected to win 78% (98.5, 90.1). They of course cruised through the playoffs to win the championship.

Although the 2009-10 season is only about 10 games old, we can still look at which teams are winning at a clip above or below the expected rate, which might result in a dip or bump down the road.

Teams that should improve, fall, and other pythagorean theorem tidbits after the break…

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By: Zachariah Blott

ETB contributor Zach Blott is back with the latest installment in our ongoing “The Kids are Alright” series, this time checking in with the Oklahoma City Thunder and everybody’s favorite young trio of Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Be sure to check out the other articles from this series on the Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers.

Why They’re Worth Watching: Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook. Jeff Green. James Harden. This isn’t a bad list, and it’s probably three names longer than most people need. Durant is all but in the upper-stratum of players who the average fan wants to watch. LeBron, D-Wade, Kobe…who else are people more excited to see highlights of? Chris Paul? Dwight Howard? Carmelo Anthony? Steve Nash? The Durantula uses explosive drives and a spindly mess of limbs to throw down improbable dunks in traffic and to toss up long 3’s on his way to 27 ppg and the adulation of the entire Midwest.

Russell Westbrook photo credit: Icon SMI

Westbrook is possibly the smartest point guard who posts a sub-par A/TO rate (7.3-4.3), primarily due to his stellar defense. Green is the type of player who does a lot of things well, none of them great, and the result is actually really good. FreeDarko described him as “Jeff Green-ing his way to Jeff Green-ness” (down below the creepy black and white photo) – which makes sense when you see him play. Harden is the new kid on the block who is an extremely creative scorer, even without much athleticism. With a lot of learning left to do and only 17 minutes of burn per game off the bench, Harden is hitting 44% of his 3’s and has an absolutely sick 3.5-0.6 A/TO rate. Forgotten in this young group is 6-7 SG Thabo Sefolosha, a brilliant defender who is hitting the shots he’s been given up to this point (45% FG, 53% 3FG).

The team’s new-found commitment to the defensive end, including Durant’s, is helping the Thunder cut down on opponents’ layups and forcing them into 29% shooting from behind the arc. Throw in new backup C Etan Thomas, who is all defense, and Oklahoma City is sporting one of the league’s best Defensive Ratings (97.3 points per 100 possessions). By improving significantly on this end of the floor, the Thunder reached their 4th win 25 games sooner than last year (do the math – they really did start that poorly one season ago).

What’s the Plan?: Head Coach Scott Brooks talked to the players about defense in the offseason, and it’s working. The energy they’re putting into stopping opponents is resulting in a lot of turnovers and bad shots. The front office wisely added defensive stalwarts Thomas and Sefolosha over the past year, and been-everywhere PG Kevin Ollie is an intelligent veteran who brings a lot of value on and off the court to such a green team.

The more obvious plan is to pick up young, exciting pieces and let them mature. Durant, Westbrook, Green, and Harden were all top-5 picks over the last three drafts, and none of them has the foul scent of bust. As they continue to play together and learn the game, the Thunder should improve their record in each coming season. They have tons of money sitting around, so they could make a real push for a big-time free agent during the summer. What do they need? Time more than anything, but a true sharp shooter or two wouldn’t hurt. Neither would a decent starting center who can get the easy buckets.

Projecting the future in Oklahoma City, after the jump …

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By: Andrew Thell

“The Kids are Alright” series rolls on with a look at the Sacramento Kings, a team that finished with an NBA-low 17 wins last season but has some young talent worth keeping an eye on. Also from this series, don’t miss our take on the Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, and Philadelphia 76ers … more to come.

Why They’re Worth Watching: After starting the decade with a string of elite seasons, winning between 55 and 61 games from 2000-01 through 2003-04, this team has been in freefall. Over the last five years they’ve won 50, 44, 33, 38 and 17 games. The 17-65 mark from a season ago was the worst in franchise history, and Sac Town is unquestionably in full rebuilding mode. Going into the season we all knew the Kings would be one of the worst teams in the NBA, if not the worst. Losing their leading scorer and highest-paid player in Kevin Martin in the first week certainly doesn’t help that prognosis, but perhaps it’s a blessing in disguise. Wins are not a priority right now. Developing talent and accruing ping-pong balls are, and the Kings should have plenty of opportunity to do both – while still showing distinct glimmers of hope.

The biggest reason I’m watching the Kings right now it to get a handle on and a glimpse of the 2009-10 NBA Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans. The guy is going to be a big name in this league for a long time. The absurd 22.2 field-goal attempts per game Martin had averaged on the young season have to go somewhere, and the leading beneficiary is young Mr. Evans, who now has the inside track on ROY honors after the injury to Blake Griffin. Even before the Griffin and Martin injuries Evans had a great shot at leading all rookies in scoring, but the rook responded to K-Mart’s first game absent with 32 points on 7-15 shooting (2-3 from deep), 16-19 (!) from the line, 3 boards, 7 dimes and a steal with just 2 turnovers – and he did it on the Utah Jazz defense, matched up against Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer for a bulk of the game. He’s going to put up numbers.

Evans is a terrific athlete who can get to the rim at will and is capable of playing solid defense. He also played plenty of both guard positions both at Memphis and in high school, which is good because he’s going to be asked to do it a lot with Kevin Martin on the roster. He still has holes in his game, but Tyreke is a solid 6-6, 215-pound kid with a 7’3 wingspan, good instincts and a ton of upside. He’s a young man you’ll want to acquaint yourself with.

The future in Sactown up front is the young duo of Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes. The 6-11 Thompson has a strong offensive repertoire with decent range and plays with a lot of energy underneath. He can rebound and score around the basket, though it’s unclear at this point if he’s better cast as a four or a five. The tentative five of the future is Hawes, who has great shooting and passing skills for a young man of his size. These two could be a dynamic duo. Neither is the prototypical NBA center, but the way this league is going not many teams will have one of those in a couple years.

Also of interest up front is Donte Greene, a 6-10 second-year player out of Syracuse. A first-round pick in the summer of 2008, Greene is a hard worker who can score and clean the glass and oozes potential. He’s a long, athletic player who can finish around the basket and runs well, but will take time to adjust to the NBA level.

What the future holds in Sacramento, after the jump …

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