Fantasy Baseball Busts to Buy, Sell and Hold

- The Season's Over -

Fantasy Baseball Busts – Buy, Sell, or Hold?

June 28, 2011

Adam Dunn asleep at the bat photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

By Andrew Thell

We do our best in February and March. We spend countless hours crunching numbers, reading blogs, poring over spreadsheets and cheat sheets, picking our friends’ brains and buying draft guides. We do it all not just in the name of finding the big breakout candidates, but also to avoid the coming season’s big busts. It’s hard to win a league in the first ten rounds, but you sure can lose one. Despite these efforts, we end up those busts on rosters anyways. Every year, on nearly every roster, it happens to the best of us.

If you’re languishing in your league’s standings, odds are you have several big busts driving you batty, and as we approach the halfway point you’re wondering if it’s time to throw in the towel. In another month or so it might be time to wash your hands of the whole mess and turn to the poker table for your competitive fix … well, even more than you already have been. But it’s not too late to make a run in any league, even if it’s just a surge in the standings for the sake of pride. There are few things more satisfying than turning a disaster campaign around, and what is likely to define this effort is how you handle the busts, both yours and those of your league mates. In the words of Charles Bukowski, what matters most is how well you walk through the fire.

Let’s take a look at the most epic busts of the season thus far and talk about what’s to be done with them. We’ll define them as guys who came into the season as consensus top-100 picks that are currently ranked at least 75 spots below where they started in standard scoring leagues. I’ve looked extensively at the numbers, both traditional and Sabermetric, for all of the below (several of which because they’re on more than one of my rosters), but I’ll keep the comments on each brief and the stats few. It’s been a tough year, we’ve got a lot of ground to cover.

Today we’ll work on hitters, later this week we’ll get to the pitcher duds.

Which fantasy baseball big names to buy, sell and hold, after the jump …

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: Coming into the season he was in consideration for the top overall pick, but you won’t find him in the current top 200. We’re absolutely looking at a case of bad luck here, as Ramirez currently sports a .256 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) compared to his career .340 mark, so the batting average should vastly improve. His power has evaporated as well, as the career .199 ISO (Isolated Slugging) has dipped all the way to .091, and that’s in large part due to his career-high 54.9% ground ball percentage. Yuck. Motivation and injury are the two concerns with Hanley, but he’s looking as healthy as he has all season and with a potential trade to a better offense there’s reason for optimism. I wouldn’t pay close to full price right now, but I’d float a lowball offer.

Verdict: Hold, risky buy low with huge upside.

Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria’s oblique injury was a real shame for owners expecting a breakout season from the number 4 ranked Yahoo! player coming into the season. When he has been on the field the results have been mediocre as well, but I see no reason for concern. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, his ISO is healthy and the .254 BABIP is bound to correct. In fact, we already saw some correction with a monster series over the weekend. The buy-low door may have slammed shut with 8 hits, 3 HRs and 10 RBI over the last week – but I’d still try to stick my foot in it.

Verdict: Hold and very strong buy low.

Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox: It’s true that Carl Crawford’s game is ill-fitted to the dimensions at Fenway, he looked to be responding negatively to the pressure of the massive contract to start the season and Boston really didn’t need him with Ellsbury in the outfield and plenty of top-of-the-order hitters on the roster. Still, he’s an elite talent in his prime playing in a great park with a great offense around him, and he’s not living up to expectations. I’m concerned at the abysmal, career-low 3.2% walk rate, that he’s only attempted 12 steals and been caught on 4 of the attempts. On top of that, you never want to see a hamstring injury for a player whose primary asset is speed. I’ve always considered Crawford a bit overrated for fantasy purposes and think last year’s 19 HRs were an aberration; if he’s not stealing bags at an elite rate then he’s not an elite player.

Verdict: Sell if you can get full value, not buying.

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: That Mr. Met has been a completely different hitter since his concussion two years ago is well-documented. His strikeouts have skyrocketed, topping out at an Adam Dunn-esque 29.5% this season. That’s scary for a guy who used to be known for great plate approach. That said, his BABIP is way down (.276 this year, .341 career), he’s resumed baseball activities since landing on the DL May 15th, he seemed to figure out the new, spacious park last season and he’s still got the tools to be a huge difference maker at this thinnest of positions. The bad numbers this year are in a tiny sample and I’m buying if in need at the hot corner, but I’m not paying full price.

Verdict: Hold, modest buy.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: If you came into the season expecting Ian Kinsler to both stay healthy and post a great batting average this season then you may be in the wrong racket – but the .235 mark is very low even for him. Kinsler hovers around .275 for his career, and a .242 BABIP has been the culprit so far given his solid 19.4% line-drive percentage and ground-ball and fly-ball rates. However, given his injury history, despite the low BA the fact that Kinsler has stayed healthy and produced 8 HRs and 15 SBs before the midway point to me means he hasn’t been a bust at all. The injury bug could always bite, making him a risky buy, but his peripherals look as sound as ever and it’s heating up in Arlington. It’s a gut call with injury risks, but personally I love the HR/SB upside and I love to buy Rangers just before their offense goes on the annual summer home run binge.

Verdict: Hold, risky buy with big upside – but then you knew that.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves: Not only is Uggla hitting .175, he’s not even getting on base, walking just 7.7% of the time (.241 OBP). You didn’t draft Uggla for his batting average, you did it for the power, but the average should at least crest the Mendoza line when the absurdly low .188 BABIP recovers. I’m more concerned about the drop to a career-low .155 ISO and spike to a career-high 12.6% IFFB (Infield Fly Ball Percentage, or pop-ups). He’s pressing right now, but the tools are still there, there’s no injury we know of, and he’s coming off four straight 31+ HR seasons. He’s always going to be a liability in average, but you knew that, and I think this has buy low written all over it.

Verdict: Hold, buy low.

Adam Dunn, DH/1B, Chicago White Sox: This is starting to get scary. You know a True Three Outcomes guy like Dunn who has struck out 33.3% of the time in his career is going to be streaky and should never be counted on for even a serviceable batting average, but the .173 BA after two straight .260+ campaigns stings like when I pee. Remember though, we’ve seen this guy hit under .240 more than once for a full season and there’s plenty of time to get back to that range. What’s worse is we all took Dunn to be one of our primary power sources, we were counting on HRs, not AVG. After all, the man has hit between 38 and 46 HRs for seven straight years, and he’s moving from a crappy NL hitters park to a HR haven on the South Side of Chicago. What we’ve gotten is just 7 HRs (.143 ISO this year, a robust .265 career) and 29 RBIs.

The 43.3% strikeout rate is jaw-droppingly bad and the 16.4 % IFFB is the worst since his rookie season. Those are red flags, but the rest of the peripherals actually look pretty healthy. I make no promises about the batting average, but I feel confident Dunn will be a plus source of power from here on out. I also have a gut feeling, nothing scientific, that resting a few games during interleague play will do a lot of good. This may be the cheapest he’s come in a trade in his career. And for you owners, what exactly do you think you’ll get for him? Luke Scott?

Verdict: Hold, and strong buy if you need power.

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