Fantasy Football Draft Grades - Grading the 1st Overall Fantasy Pick

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Breaking Down ETB’s Fantasy Football Draft: FIGHTERTOWN USA

September 5, 2010

Chris Johnson Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Andrew Thell and Jon Lindberg

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

FIGHTERTOWN USA (Picked first overall)

The Picks

1. (1) Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
2. (24) Jamaal Charles, RB, KC Chiefs
3. (25) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
4. (48) Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Iggles
5. (49) Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
6. (72) Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. (73) Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston Texans
8. (96) San Francisco, Team Defense
9. (97) Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, KC Chiefs
10. (120) James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
11. (121) Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
12. (144) Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
13. (145) Javon Ringer, RB, Tennessee Titans
14. (168) Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots
15. (169) Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Best Value:

There are a number of picks here that have a chance to make this draft look good, but they’re contingent on injuries and depth-chart movement. In terms of straight-up value, Vernon Davis in the 5th round looks like a nice get. ETB readers know we love the mercurial tight end’s talent. He’s a physical freak in terms of size, speed and athleticism, and with an improving quarterback, offensive line and defense there’s no reason to think he can’t duplicate last year’s numbers and be a top-three player at his position.

Biggest Reach:

There’s a lot to pick from here, so let’s just go with rounds 6 through 10.

Mike Wallace is on everybody’s sleeper list, but he’s not a go-to type of receiver, he’ll have terrible QB play for the first month, and he could have fallen into the 8th or 9th round. Jacoby Jones is still third on the depth chart, and while he’s talented, he was also unlikely to go for another two-to-four rounds.

Taking a defense in round eight is downright perplexing, even if I love San Fran this year. Dexter McCluster was apparently drafted as an elite handcuff to Jamaal Charles despite the fact that he’s not a real NFL running back. But perhaps the biggest reach of the run is James Jones, a mildly intriguing talent who is third on the depth chart in Green Bay and has totaled just 99 receptions, 1,390 yards and 8 TDs in his three seasons in the league. He’s barely rosterable at this point, let alone worth of a 10th-round pick.

ETB’s Take:

Confused. Very, very confused. The gut reaction is to declare this draft the work of some poor, lost soul who just got out of 20 years in solitary and stumbled into the draft room by accident. However, given the fact this owner has won the league two years running it’s hard not to try and figure out the mad scientist angle here (I still haven’t figured it out). Still, even if you believe in the players, a good half of these picks could have been had at least a round or four later than they were taken.

It’s hard not to love the backfield trio of Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Stewart. This is likely the best trio of rushers in the league – all three have elite talent and could be top-five backs if things break right. That’s the good news.

The bad news is everything else.

Nobody I’ve talked to knows exactly what to make of Kolb this year. He’s a mediocre talent, but he has elite weapons around him and he’s in a great offensive scheme. I wouldn’t be comfortable taking Kolb in the first five rounds, let alone having him as my only QB on the roster.

The wide receivers here have all been hot names in draft season, but none is better than a WR 3 or 4 and none is a sure thing to score more than 5 TDs even if they stay healthy. And if one of them doesn’t work out? Dexter McCluster is the lone wideout on the bench. That’s scary.

In fact, the most striking thing about this roster is the complete lack of depth. Sure, Kolb, Wallace, Jones, Jones, San Fran, Bernard Scott, Anthony Dixon and Javon Ringer could all have very useful years. Could. But they’ll all need things to go just right for that to happen, and you just can’t walk out of a draft counting on a half dozen contingencies. And if you do, well, you better have great depth. This team doesn’t have a single player on the bench anybody should be comfortable starting tomorrow if/when injury strikes.

Extensive comments from FIGHTERTOWN USA after the break…

Ladies and Gentlemen, We Give You FIGHERTOWN USA, aka Johnny Woo

Since I am 100% Korean I took a very analytical approach to my draft, with a few shots from the hip mixed in (see McCluster in round 9).

Note: I am using this disclosure as an eternal excuse for losing future seasons of fantasy football. The men and women in the ETB league are extremely intelligent, and will use this information against me in 2011 and beyond, even though they will never admit it. I am giving away pure dynamite, the most pertinent way to arrange the order of positions you draft. Your starting position in the draft can change things the first two rounds, but in general this is how you can decide between a WR, RB, or a QB.

References to the distribution of fantasy point totals are specific to this league’s settings for ’09 and ’08. I sorted by Quarterbacks and then clicked ‘Fan Pts’ to arrange them in descending order of 2009 total points. On a spreadsheet I inputted each point total for the players, and stopped after I went deep into the Dregs.

Then I went back and looked at the player names and determined cutoff points between ‘Elite’, ‘Decent’, and ‘Dreg’ options. I noted the number of Decents as well as the point difference between the last Elite and the last Decent: this is the approximate gap in points I expected if I missed out on an Elite but still drafted a Decent. I repeated this for each position for both 2009 and 2008.

QB – I chose Romo (275) as the last Elite and Matt Ryan (195) was the last Decent.
- Gap *80pts*, 10 Decents available, 1 QB slot to fill.
- Elites range 323-273, Decents 251-195.

RB – Last Elite Steven Jackson/Jonathan Stewart (155), last Decent Benson/Moreno (130)
- Gap *25pts*, 6 to 9 Decents, 3 RB slots.
- Elites 234-155 (CJ was an anomaly and was not included), Decents 153-133.

WR – Last Elite Vincent Jackson (172), last Decent Roy Williams (100).
- Gap ~*70pts*, 27 to 32 Decents, 3 WR slots.
- Elites 218-172, Decents 159-100.

So these are the factors to consider:

- Point difference between high and low options
- Typical number of average options available
- Number of roster slots
- Range of high and average options.

Using this data to compare my team with Executive’s, your first reaction may be to hand him the trophy, and give me the toilet seat for last place. Andrew went WR and QB heavy, but has poor RBs. I have great RBs, but huge deficiencies at QB and WR.

Disregarding DEF/ST and TE, I estimated our combined point totals from 1 QB, 3 RB, 2 WR, and 1 W/T:

- Executive > Moss 172, Roddy 172, Schaub 273, Finley 172, Barber 132, Jacobs 132, Hardesty 132 = 1185
- Me > CJ 155, Charles 155, Stewart 155, Kolb 195, Vernon 159, Wallace 100, Jacoby 100 = 860

Andrew is projected to outscore me by 360 fantasy points. I am going to need Charles to explode, Kolb to hold his own, and Wallace, Jacoby, and hopefully James Jones to step up huge. The age of Moss, decline of Barber/Jacobs, and fragility of Schaub will need to save me and the rest of the league.

Wow, this does not look good. I completely lost track of this analysis before the draft and relied too heavily on those stupid mocks and Yahoo articles glorifying Jacoby! Executive? Charles for White?

Here are my big gambles:

1. Weak WRs
2. Kevin Kolb
3. No starters on the bench

WR4s: After thousands of mocks from position one I realized going all RBs the first three rounds was too enticing to pass up. By the time my second and third picks arrived, the elite QBs and WRs were gone. I like Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, and Desean Jacskon, but not enough to pass up three elite RBs. I admit that my weak WRs are hit or miss since they get few looks, but WRs in general get fewer touches than RBs, so I prefer RBs as this production is more consistent.

The dropoff to about 100 fantasy points for RBs and WRs is similar, but the quality of the RBs falls off immediately. Nobody felt good starting McGahee or Sproles last season in a RB slot; you never knew if they would hit the field. At least I know Jacoby Jones and Mike Wallace will be on the field. I will not feel ashamed or empty with them starting. Emerging WRs are easier to predict than RBs who might snare a job as an injury replacement.

Kolb: In this league’s settings QBs score the most points of any position hands down, but the difference in fantasy points between an elite QB and a decent option is, well, the highest of any position. Yes, I screwed up here. I have faith in Kolb’s receivers and Reid’s pass heavy scheme, so all is not lost. Go Eagles!

As I was writing this I switched bullet points 1 and 2 after realizing the weak WRs is a bigger issue than the QB since there are more slots. An 80-point downgrade at QB is less consequential than 3 WR slots with a 70-point difference between the Elites/Decents. The power of roster spots cannot be ignored.

Empty Bench: Executive pointed out that I have no starters on my bench and will be
scrambling when an injury strikes, but with 12 managers the pool got shallow by round 9 and I started grabbing my dream bench lottery tickets. Since I own Scott and Dixon, I have the two most valuable handcuffs given Gore/Benson’s likelihood of injury, their teams’ run heavy schemes, and their soft schedules.

I am rationalizing all of this after the fact. I did not specifically think this through during the draft. I just took what the draft gave me. I am full of it and that was an awful draft.

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