Empty the Bench

By Andrew Thell and Chris Stevenson

On Tuesday, August 31, the dons of Empty the Bench joined friends and peers for the annual football nerd-out fest that is the ETB Fantasy Football League Draft. This year’s draft was one of the most challenging, stressful test of wills to date with 12 teams, 15 rounds of picks, and no kickers to thin the field out. Over the next few days we’ll reveal the results team by team, and take a quick look at how each one fared; compare and contrast with your league, and let us know your take in the comments section.

Disclaimer: many of our team names are lewd, childish, and downright stupid. We make no apologies for this.

Team:

Mr. Opper (Picked sixth overall)

The Picks

1. (6) Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
2. (19) Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
3. (30) Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
4. (43) Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants
5. (54) Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts
6. (67) Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
7. (78) Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders
8. (91) Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
9. (102) Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
10. (115) Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills
11. (126) Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears
12. (139) Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns
13. (150) Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago Bears
14. (163) New Orleans, Team Defense
15. (174) Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans

Best Value:

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears: Despite the bad vibes coming out of Chicago this preseason, grabbing Jay Cutler in the 9th round was an absolute bargain. Cutler has the talent to be one of the truly elite QBs in this league; his problems are all between the ears. Offensive guru Mike Martz could be just the signal caller Cutler needs to tap into his vast potential. Sure, he’s going to get the shit beat out of him taking long drops behind that offensive line, but Pork Cutlet is also going to connect on a lot of deep balls and a 30-TD season seems like a real possibility – remember, the big story was the 26 INTs, but Cutler also tossed a respectable 27 TDs last year. He’s a great high-upside backup to the aging Favre, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cutler start 8+ games for Mr. Opper.

Biggest Reach:

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times… Yes, Lee Evans is explosive and he can get downfield for a deep ball with the best of ‘em. And he may even score 7-8 TDs this season – maybe – but I can guarantee you he won’t be in Mr. Opper’s lineup when he does. Evans is just so hit-and-miss on a week-to-week basis that he’s maddening to own. Last season you benched him Week 6 against Darrell Revis at the Jets and he nabs 4 passes for 68 yards and a score, then you start him Week 14 at Kansas City and he only catches one ball for 11 yards. That’s Evans in a nutshell.

This is what Lee Evans does: teases, frustrates, and disappoints fantasy owners. It’s in large part because the Buffalo offense and QB play is consistently among the worst in football; it’s also because Evans is such a low-volume receiver. He never topped 5 catches in a game last season despite being their No. 1 wideout. I know he caught 82 balls for nearly 1,300 yards in 2006, but it’s time to stop chasing the dragon. I’d much rather take a swing for the fences with Robert Meachem, who went three picks later.

ETB’s Take:

Mr. Opper knows what he’s doing, no question, and this is a team that should definitely compete. That said, he and I don’t see eye to eye on a lot of these players and I can’t help but feel like this is a “safe” draft that might not be all that safe. Instead of going with upside or position scarcity in the first round, Opper went with Michael Turner, a guy who toted the rock 376 times in 2008-09 and broke down last season as a result. Hopefully he’ll be back at full strength this year, because I do love the Falcons offense and schedule this season.

I like the Miles Austin pick in the second. There’s no reason he can’t replicate the 1,300 yards and 11 TDs he put up last season given he wasn’t named a full-fledged started until mid-season. But in the third Mr. Opper came back with Cedric Benson, a guy with a career 3.8 YPC who had been a complete dud until his “breakout” season last year when he averaged 4.2 yards a carry and totaled 6 TDs. The guy has never played a full season, and the Bengals absolutely ran him into the ground last year with games of 29, 27, 37, 34, 36 and 29 carries. Benson missed 3.5 games as a result, and I’m taking the over on that for games missed this season. I see big risk without much upside in Benson.

After that Opper put together a string of solid picks though. Steve Smith is Baby Manning’s go-to receiver and should put up big points in our partial-PPR scoring format. Addai is a TD machine in that offense, whether he deserves to be or not. Favre in the 6th is a solid play. I’d be worried about injury at his age, but the guy never misses a game. Zach Miller in the 7th is earlier than I’ve seen him go, but I can’t argue with the pick. He’s my favorite value TE this season and should be an absolute monster with Jason Campbell presenting a significant upgrade at the QB position.

Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Lee Evans, Mohamed Massaquoi and Greg Olsen are solid bench players that can be plugged in during the bye-week doldrums.

Extensive comments from Mr. Opper after the break…

Comments from Mr. Opper:

The first few rounds of this draft went mostly according to plan. There were some disappointments, for sure (most notably, losing out on everyone’s favorite breakout player, Jermichael Finley), but after five rounds I felt like I had assembled a very solid, if unspectacular core of players. But while I do feel like I drafted one of the better teams in the league, I worry that a misstep in the 6th may end up costing me in the long run. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Round 1: Michael Turner
You can certainly make a case for Gore, or Andre Johnson here (although it’s worth noting that our league, while rewarding more points for receiving yards, only awards .3 pts per reception), but I was happy to get my guy Turner. Gore’s an appealing option – he’s an elite back and his schedule looks great – but I worry about his propensity for injuries, and the fact that he’s managed 260+ carries only once in his career. I don’t have anything bad to say about Andre Johnson, but having done a few dozen mocks leading up to the real thing, I felt like my team was generally stronger when I went with a RB in the 1st.

Switching to the guy I actually picked, Michael Turner, I’ll admit that I wasn’t especially high on him when I first starting prepping for this season. Last year seemed a confirmation of what Turner haters like myself suspected: one, that he wasn’t a special back, and two, that he would pay a price for 2008’s workload. But when you look at his 2009 season, a few things jump out at you. For starters, we know that he played the early part of that season anywhere from 15 to 20 pounds overweight. He struggled right out of the gate, but how much of that was expected regression, and how much was simply a case of an already slowish back made even slower and less dynamic because of extra weight?

Turner produced in a rout against the 49ers in Week 5, but again struggled in Weeks 6 and 7 before rushing for well over 400 yards over his next three games (one assumes improved conditioning had something to do with that). The haters were silenced for a while, but Turner suffered an ankle injury in Week 10 and his season was effectively over after that. The extra weight may have played a role in his injury, but there’s no escaping the fact that a lot of people expected him to break down, and he did just that. But even with the slow start and injury, he managed 10 TDs and an impressive 4.9 yards per carry, so it’s not like his season was a total bust.

Lastly, it’s worth remembering that Turner was a backup for most of his career and has only 782 carries through 6 seasons; it’s not like we’re talking about Clinton Portis here. You worry about the ankle becoming an issue again this year, but all reports are that he’s fully recovered from the original sprain.

As for this season, reports are that Turner showed up for camp in the “best shape of his life.” It’s always wise to take that kind of talk with a large grain of salt, but it’s at least good to hear that he’s serious about his conditioning after showing up to camp last season at an obscene 260 (who does he think he is, Jerome Bettis?). There’s also talk of getting him more involved in the passing game, which I’ll believe when I see, although there has been evidence of it in the preseason.

So yeah, it’s true that Turner’s not a special back, and certainly, he’s a guy who’ll feast on the Lions and the Rams of the world, while struggling against the league’s better defenses. But after Adrian Peterson and maybe Chris Johnson, he’s probably the RB/WR most likely to score 15 tds this season (and speaking of feasting on defenses, check out his schedule). I think that’s worth spending a #6 pick on.

(Ed Note: Potshot at my Lions?! Potshot at my Lions?!)

Round 2: Miles Austin
I spent a lot of words making the case for Turner in the 1st (mostly because I’m aware of ETB’s distaste for the guy), so I’ll keep it short here. Tom Brady, who I love this year, was definitely a consideration, but I thought it was important to get a #1 stud wideout. I like Roddy White just a tad bit more due to his track record, but I was relieved when the Executive picked him since I didn’t want to select two players from the same team with my first two picks.

Round 3: Cedric Benson
The 6th pick was appealing a few weeks ago, when guys like Brady and Jermichael Finley could be had in the 3rd and 4th rounds, respectively, but by the time of our draft, those players were going several picks earlier, and it seemed likely that I would end up drafting a RB in the 3rd. A trio of Turner, Austin, and Brady would have been a dream, but with Tom Terrific off the board, I was thrilled to get Benson, one of the few workhorse backs in the league.

I understand why Benson isn’t getting a lot of love this year; dude’s been a dog for most of his career, and despite his performance last year, it’s hard to believe in a reality where Cedric Benson is a borderline stud running back. But if you watched him last year, you saw a powerful, decisive runner who was the focal point of his team’s offense. There’s some concern that a hip injury suffered in Week 10 was evidence of him breaking down after averaging something like 25 carries through the first 8 games, but he looked pretty damn good after the injury, and if he was gassed by the end of the season after setting a career high in rushing attempts, he certainly didn’t show it. After seeing him rush for 169 yards in a playoff loss against the Jets, it’s hard to take serious the notion that he’s not for real.

Also, for what it’s worth (not much), Benson has looked scary good in the preseason. I don’t know what happened to this guy (surprisingly little attention has been given to the fact that he was diagnosed with Celiac disease shortly before being cut by the Bears), but he looks like one of those old-school backs who’s out there looking to hurt defenders.

Bernard Scott’s a talented back, and it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which Benson gets hurt and Scott plays the role of savior, but Benson’s clearly the guy here. I really don’t see much difference between him and someone like Shonn Greene, who went early 2nd in our league, aside from the fact that Greene is new and exciting, while Benson, up until last year, had the reputation of being a bum. His lack of activity near the goal line is disconcerting, but you have to think he’ll improve on his TD totals if he’s healthy and running the ball well.

Round 4: Steve Smith (Giants)
Another easy one. I wanted Finley here, but I didn’t expect him to get past The Executive, who goes to bed with the TE’s name on his lips. Once Finley came off the board, I struggled a bit with Steve Smith vs. Wes Welker, but SCLSU Mud Dogs made the decision for me by selecting Welker right before my pick (I would have gone with Antonio Gates had both receivers been selected).

I don’t expect Smith to catch 100+ balls again, but I’m also not expecting a huge dropoff in production. A lot of people are expecting Hakeem Nicks’ likely breakout to come at Smith’s expense, but that ignores the fact that the Giants are becoming a pass-first offense. I love Ahmad Bradshaw, but he’s not a 20 carry a game guy, and Brandon Jacobs at this point is just a big body. The Giants running attack is no longer a strength, so they’ll look to air it out this season. Also, if you watch the Giants, you know that Smith is Eli’s go-to-guy. I feel good about this pick.

Round 5: Joseph Addai
Alright, we’re still rolling. I wanted CJ Spiller’s upside in this round, but I was happy to get Addai, who plays in a great offense and was a top-10 back last season. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Joseph Addai excites me, but I think he was the right pick at this point in the draft. Remember, we start a flex player in this league.

Rounds 6-7: Brett Favre, Zach Miller
Having done a bunch of mocks, I found that, generally, I ended up with either a team that packed major firepower, but also had holes (Andre Johnson, Brady, Finley, and shaky backs for example), or one that perhaps was less exciting, but more complete. I think it’s fair to say that I was on my way to having the latter, but choices made in these two rounds left me with a hole at a position, something that you really can’t afford when pursuing the more conventional strategy of waiting on a QB and TE (after all, if you’re not gonna reach on guys like Brady and Finley, you better be able to justify that by putting forth a balanced team that’s rock solid at every position).

I wanted Johnny Knox in the 6th, and was feeling pretty good about the chances of him falling to me in that round. He was still available three picks in, and the two teams picking in front of me had already selected three wideouts. Unfortunately, Andrew Thell decided to go all in on his “Year of the WR” bet, and instead of picking a #2 back (Felix Jones and Ricky Williams were the obvious candidates), he selected the talented Knox. With Knox off the board, I focused my attention on the remaining wideouts, but I felt like it was a bit early for guys like Garcon and Driver (in hindsight, Garcon was totally viable at this spot). The guy who jumped out at me here was Jeremy Maclin, but I figured there was a good chance that either he or another solid #3 type would be available in the next round, so instead I decided to lock up my starting QB.

My thinking at the time was that in selecting Favre, I was getting someone who could throw for 30 TDs, even with the Rice injury. But to be honest, a few days removed from the draft, I can’t say that I see a whole lot of difference between him and a guy like Eli Manning; certainly not enough to warrant passing on Maclin or Garcon in the 6th. Not only that, but I’m not even sure I got the best QB available at that spot. Joe Flacco is actually looking like the better pick at this point.

So yeah, I reached on Favre. And it came back to bite me in the 7th when that last solid tier of TEs started falling off the board, and it became clear that if I wanted a guy like Zach Miller, I was going to have to take him in this round. So instead of getting a solid #3 WR like Donald Driver, I ended up taking a TE (albeit one that I really like this year) at least one round earlier than was ideal.

Round 8: Reggie Bush
I wanted Montario Hardesty or T.O. here, but both players were gone by the time of my pick. Looking at my wideouts, I guess you can make a case for Derrick Mason, but Bush stood out as the best player left on the board. I understand folks’ antipathy towards him, but he could go down as a good value in this round. He’s obviously a limited back, but he does have his virtues, particularly in the passing game, and it looks like the Saints wants to expand his role in the offense this year. He’s also surprisingly active in the red zone.

Round 9: Jay Cutler
This felt like a great pick at the time, but I have to say, I honestly have no idea what to expect from Cutler or the Bears this year. Preseason is mostly bullshit, and Chicago is clearly in stealth mode, but Cutler looks lost heading into the season. As a scout recently noted, Cutler’s fundamentals are terrible right now, and he doesn’t trust his offensive line. He’s sensing pressure that isn’t there — a terrible sign — and you can’t help but wonder if he’s on his way to having Jeff George’s career.

That being said, the guy’s an elite talent, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he ended up a top 6 or 7 QB in Martz’s offense. I’ll certainly take his upside in the 9th round.

Round 10: Lee Evans
Just writing the name “Lee Evans” makes my eyelids go heavy, but I think he was the right pick here. I know he’s been a perpetual disappointment for fantasy owners, but Trent Edwards has looked decent in the preseason (remember, Edwards seemed on his way to being respectable before a serious concussion derailed him), and the offense should be more potent with CJ Spiller in the mix. Some of this is glass-half-full thinking, and certainly, I’d prefer to have Evans as my #4 WR, but he’s actually a pretty good value in this round. Someone has to catch the ball in Buffalo, right?

Round 11: Chester Taylor
I was looking WR here, but Taylor was too good a value to pass up. He was on everyone’s sleeper list a few weeks ago, but Forte’s solid preseason (capped by an 89-yard TD run) made him an afterthought in most drafts. I don’t really get it, since it’s clear that Chicago didn’t sign Taylor to a big contract just to have him ride the bench. Forte should have a solid season if healthy, but Taylor’s a great fit for this offense (Forte’s a talented receiver and blocker, but Taylor’s better), and he’ll be more active than most people expect.

Round 12: Mohamed Massaquoi
I thought about Austin Collie here, but decided on Massaquoi, who’s a solid player and his team’s #1 WR. I’m not exactly excited about Massaquoi, but he should have some value.

Round 13: Greg Olsen
Mike Martz is famous for using his tight ends as blockers first and receivers second, but this year might be different simply because the Bears need Olsen and his receiving skills. Johnny Knox looks poised for a breakout, but Hester’s not a great route runner (essential in a Mike Martz offense), and it’s not clear that Devin Aromashodu is ready to step up for this team. We’ll see what happens, but at the very least, it does sound like he’ll remain a top target in the red zone.

Round 14: New Orleans Defense
I liked a few guys here, but didn’t have a strong preference, so I figured I’d get myself a top fantasy defense.

Round 15: Kevin Walter
Whatever.

So that’s it. I had a pretty good draft, but I wish I had waited on a QB and gone with Maclin in the 6th. This team lacks breakout players, so I’ll need guys like Turner, Benson, and Austin to live up to my lofty expectations.

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