Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

Fans expect lottery picks to one day become All-Stars, or at least strong contributors who flash All-Star potential. They want to see these picks steadily improve over their first few seasons, and validate their hopes that these players will become worthy cornerstones for their beloved franchises… and the sooner they make it happen, of course, the better.

Below are five such ex-lottery picks who had high expectations before things tipped off in October, and whose seasons are still being weighed in the black-or-white spectrum of good season, bad season. Here’s where each stands as we head into the final 2 months of the season, and what they need to accomplish to keep their fans’ hope in them alive and well.

Michael Beasley, Miami Heat
Key Stats: 16 points, 7 boards, 46% FG per

As the second pick in last year’s draft, Beasley joined the Heat with fans thinking he’d create a “big two” with Dwyane Wade. Beasley’s college stats (26-12, 53% FG vs 26-11, 47%) were better than Kevin Durant’s in the same conference, and he was clearly a stronger inside presence. After some off-season issues, it’s hard to say he’s improved on his rookie campaign. His shooting percentages are down and he’s just not rebounding enough. For this season to be a success, he needs to average about 50% FG and 8+ rebounds the rest of the way. Stringing together some more 20-point contests wouldn’t hurt, either.

Yi Jianlian, New Jersey Nets
Key Stats: 13 points, 7 boards, 1 block, 41% FG per

In an injury-shortened third season, Yi has improved statistically with more playing time, but he still has a long ways to go for a 7-footer. He’s too passive on the offensive end, settling for jumpers that keep his shooting percentage low, and he’s hardly an aggressive rebounder. For the minutes the Nets are giving him during this wasted season, he should be working on posting up and helping Brook Lopez on the boards. We already know he’s (unfortunately) in love with long two-point tries, but he’s just not Andrea Bargnani. To consider 2009-10 a success, Yi needs to shoot at least 45% and average 8+ boards the rest of the way.

Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Key Stats: 10 points, 5.0-2.2 A/TO, 43% FG, 42% 3FG per

Outside of three-point shooting, this third-year PG has shown almost no improvement during his time in the league. He still relies on his incredible speed to do most things, but he needs to work on fundamentals and becoming more consistent. And with all the offensive weapons the Grizzlies now have (Mayo, Gay, Randolph, Gasol), it’s unacceptable that he has 19 games with less than 5 assists and only one in double digits. For this year to be successful for Conley, he must average 6.5 assists the rest of the way while keeping his outside shooting stroke up. Additionally, he should be getting to the rim more; he’s got Randolph and Gasol there to clean up any close misses.

What Randy Foye and LaMarcus Aldridge need to accomplish after the break…

Randy Foye, Washington Wizards
Key Stats: 23 minutes, 10 points, 2.8-1.3 Assist-Turnover, 43% FG, 35% 3FG per. (As a starter, he’s at 14 points, 4.6-1.6 A/TO, same-ish percentages)

Foye is now in his fourth season and manning the point for the Wizards (continue reading once you’ve stopped laughing). He doesn’t have PG skills, but his A-TO rate is respectable since becoming a starter. People always expect something more out of Foye, but his shooting percentages over time have all stood pat or dropped, and it’s hard to say his presence actually improves a squad. He’s almost to the point of simply being that guy who was traded for Brandon Roy. If he can bump up the assist totals from here on out (in the 5.5 to 6 range), and take it to the rim for more easy buckets or foul shots (2 FTA per isn’t getting it done), Foye’s season has to be considered a success. It’s all about adjusting expectations at this point.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
Key Stats: 17 points, 8 boards, 50% FG per

There’s plenty of talk in Portland of this fourth-year big man becoming an All-Star someday (and they just gave him a heap of cash to do so), but his stats have all stayed pretty much the same for awhile now. His rebounds are up a little this year, but that’s only because of injuries to both Blazer centers, and they should drop with Camby now in the middle.

Aldridge is a good mid-range shooter, but he’d score more points and put other teams into more foul trouble if he focused on posting up. For this to be a successful 2009-10, Aldridge needs to up his scoring in the paint (even after Roy returns), keep boarding in the 9+ neighborhood he’s been in recently, and swat more than 0.5 shots per.

Zachariah Blott is a dish best served cold.

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