Empty the Bench

By Andrew Thell

Unless you play playoffs fantasy football, and I strongly suggest that you do, the dust has settled on another season of our imaginary NFL leagues. Experiences will obviously vary based on success and wagers recouped, but I think it was one of the finest campaigns in recent memory. Everybody has a sob story (or two, in my case), but the fantasy gods were surprisingly even-handed this season. For the most part smart, diligent owners who weren’t afraid to take risks were rewarded. That’s exactly how we want it to go.

Regardless of how the fates treated you, there was much to be learned from the season. It’s easy to simply dust your hands and walk off into a sunset of fantasy hoops, and I intend to do just that, but first I want to take a few minutes and see if we can’t glean some lessons from the imaginary season that was. Hopefully it’ll provide some insight now, and feel free to bookmark and come back as your 2010 draft approaches for a refresher. The easiest way to tackle it is probably the same way you’ll approach filling out your rosters on draft day next summer: position by position.

Quarterback

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had fantastic seasons, that much is undeniable. Tom Brady was no slouch either, though he didn’t quite meet draft-day expectations. The owners who drafted that trio with their first- or second-round pick may not have experienced the same success. That’s because savvy owners who waited and took Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger got nearly identical or even better production at a fraction of the cost – and were in turn able to pair that production with a Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson.

There’s a flip side, of course. Those who waited and went into the season counting on a Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, or Matt Ryan were left high and dry. Depending on where they were taken, those were all solid picks on draft day given the information we had to work with. They just didn’t pan out. It happens. The lesson? Don’t draft a big name in the first round, but also be sure to draft more than one solid option. You can afford to wait on your starting QB for a few rounds, but be sure you don’t wait too many for a backup that you’d be comfortable starting. There’s a good chance you’ll be doing just that more than once.

Running Back

Year after year rookie running backs remain some of the biggest draft-day bargains. And they are a tremendous source of value most seasons, but we need to recognize these guys as what they are: unknown commodities. Lottery tickets. They could blow up just as easily as fizzle out. This year I was scrambling in every draft to get Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy and Shonn Greene so I could install them as my RB3 or even RB2 in some cases. That didn’t work out so hot.

Stocking up on lottery tickets is great, but just remember to treat them as such. Don’t spend the dog food money on ‘em. Put yourself in a position to take advantage of a breakout season or merely unexpected depth, not one one where you’re crippled if they don’t pan out.

The three biggest surprises with the most fantasy impact this season were Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice. We at ETB were bullish on Johnson and Ray last summer, but I certainly didn’t see Rice finishing fourth among all RBs or CJ’s history-making season coming. And Nobody saw Charles’s breakout coming. Nobody. One thing I will say is: go out of your way to target RBs who can not only rush the football but also be extremely effective in the passing game, and not just in PPR leagues. They will stay on the field and get touches, and opportunity is everything in fantasy football. Even if their team is down by 20 points in the first quarter they can still have a huge fantasy game. Even if their team’s offensive line and defense completely fall apart, they can maintain big season-long value. Other than that – draft incredibly athletic, lightning quick guys who will run between the tackles better than anybody could have possibly imagined. Works every time.

2009 fantasy football lessons from the WRs, TEs, DEFs and Ks after the jump …

Wide Receiver

I’m not sure we learned as much about the wideout position as we did others this year, but I do know what my strategy will be next draft season: get an elite wide receiver very early, acquire as much depth as possible and brace for massive disappointment and wild inconsistency. So many things can go wrong for a wide receiver and they are so dependent on other factors you just have to secure depth at the position and roll with the punches.

Turns out Jake Delhomme is actually the worst starting QB in the NFL and Stevonne Smith isn’t even startable as a result? Alright. The Green Bay offensive line is so bad Greg Jennings can’t get open downfield, making him essentially useless for weeks at a time? Huh, OK. Bernard Berrian’s preseason hamstring “tweak” will cause last season’s NFL leader in yards per catch to finish tied with Todd Heap and Ernest Wilford in YPC despite the best QB season in Vikings history? You don’t say. New head coach Josh McDaniels and his staff will inexplicably remove Eddie Royal from the game plan entirely even though he’s their most explosive playmaker and a perfect fit for their system and new QB’s limited skill set? Interesting development. Dwayne Bowe is on PEDs … alright, you get the picture. Shit’s gonna happen to WRs, be prepared or your postseason whining rights will be revoked.

Tight End

We probably learned more here than any other position. I’ve been playing fantasy football since box scores were tabulated by the Commish with paper, a pencil and the Monday morning box score in the local newspaper (which was also on paper). I’ve never seen a season in which the tight end position was so rich and so deep. It would be easy to write it off as an anomaly, but I think this is a trend not just in fantasy football but the NFL in general. Like power forwards and centers in the NBA, the slow plodders are being replaced by a new breed of extremely athletic hybrids that are capable of putting up the same fireworks and production as their daintier receiving brethren.

It started with Tony Gonzalez and then Antonio Gates, and it’s not going to stop. The blocking tight end isn’t quite obsolete in real football, but the mere placeholder tight end who you expect nothing more than 45 yards from is gone in fantasy. Not having a playmaker at the position puts you at a disadvantage. There will always be years that taking a superior athletic talent on promise alone doesn’t pay off (such as every year of Vernon Davis’s career until 2009), but the potential payout is huge (Vernon Davis’s 2009, for example). The top of the draft will be largely consensus, but after that I’ll be looking for high-upside bargains with the new crop of young first- and second-year athletes alongside physical specimens such as Greg Olsen, Jermichael Finley, Dustin Keller and Martellus Bennett.

Along the same lines, as the age of the tight end dawns it should no longer be considered a newbie mistake to draft more than one. Of the 19 players with at least 8 TD catches 6 were TEs and of the 53 with at least 5 TD receptions 16 were TEs. It’s true, I looked it up.

Vernon Davis Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Team Defense

The lesson here is the same as it’s always been: there’s simply too much volatility, turnover and unpredictability to invest highly in a team defense. Starting as early as Round 6 team DEFs began flying off the shelves in most leagues. And who were those run-starting trend-setters taking? Baltimore, Minnesota, Chicago, Tennessee and New England. Only Baltimore finished in the top ten, and at 6th were still behind free-agent pickups like New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco.

Additionally, no other position is so matchup dependent. You can take your “stud” defense and trot them out there every week if you like, but look no further than the championship week for support of a rotating defense strategy. Likely free agent Atlanta and unheralded San Francisco faced Detroit and Buffalo, respectively, in Week 16 and produced the most points among all defenses – leading many to championships. Next year take your time, draft a unit with some upside late and watch the trends, upcoming matchups (maybe even a few weeks in advance) and prey on the waiver wire like a hawk. There are no Peyton Mannings or Adrian Petersons to be had in the draft, but there is still profit to be found.

Kickers Not Named Shane Lechler

We don’t bother with them. You shouldn’t either.

Shane Lechler, on the other hand, is awesome. That dude can kick the shit out of a football.