Empty the Bench

By Zachariah Blott

Kentucky freshman PG John Wall will be the #1 overall selection in the 2010 NBA Draft. (who thinks so? here, here, here, here, here, here, you get the idea) And why not? He’s the fastest player in college basketball, he’s averaging 19 PPG and 7 APG through his first eight games, and he’s one of the key reasons Kentucky is currently a top-five team with victories over North Carolina and UConn.

He’s comic book dynamic and does well in the embarrassing-many-opponents department. In the showing-solid-basketball-skills-of-a-#1-pick department, however, there may be some problems.

For starters, he’s a point guard and is therefore expected to run the offense, which entails making good passes and taking care of the ball. Oddly, Wall’s only topped his assist average twice. How is that possible? He got 11 and 14 against two no-name schools. In addition, he plays on a fast breaking team with five 5-star recruits among their top-seven scorers, and the other two Wildcats who average over 1.8 PPG were 4-star recruits. Kentucky’s an absolutely loaded team that runs, so it’s a little surprising he’s only had two games with great assist totals.

John Wall photo credit: Icon SMI

As for taking care of the ball, he’s pretty poor. His 7 APG are paired with 4.8 TOs per game. Exactly opposite of his bottom-heavy assist distribution, he’s only done better than his turnover average twice (same two nobody opponents). In fact, his A-TO numbers in the other six games were 5-5, 6-6, 6-5, 5-5, 7-7, and 2-7. So when other teams lose by less than 29, he’s hardly a heady floor general. In fact, in the highlight video linked to above, Wall actually loses the ball completely in the #1 highlight.

His scoring average is clearly impressive, but can he do more than make driving lay-ups against a bunch of players who will never play in the league? All of the draft sites point out he barely has a shot, and he’s connecting on less than one 3-pointer a game in college. Wall relies on his athleticism to do everything, so he ends up with a lot of fast-break dunks and free throws. One has to wonder, though, how that translates into the NBA where the talent disparity isn’t as extreme, especially on the defensive end.

Speaking of defense, Wall undoubtedly has the size (6-4, 195) and quickness to be a great defender. The statistical evidence for defense is often blurry, but plenty of opposing guards have scored well against the Wildcats in UK’s five close contests, and four of those teams lit it up big-time from behind the arc. Draft experts say things like “he is not very dedicated on that end,” and “he takes plays off and lets inferior players get by him,” so he may have some work to do.

His unbelievable athleticism and extra gear with the ball compare him favorably to recent college PG’s Derrick Rose, Mike Conley, Chris Paul and fellow Kentucky product Rajon Rondo. All four of these players as freshmen took much better care of the ball, however. Rose had a 4.7-2.7 A/TO rate with a high of 5 TO in his first eight games. Rondo had a 3.5-2.0 A/TO rate with a high of 3 TO. Conley sported a 6.1-2.2 A/TO rate with a high of 4 TO. Paul had a 5.9-2.6 A/TO rate with a high of 6 (which was in a 3OT thriller at #4 North Carolina).

Wall has plenty of time to improve his basketball IQ and become a player worthy of the top overall selection in the 2010 draft. If he continues to simply get by on quicks and headlines, though, we might have another Johnny Flynn—someone who makes a living at the free throw line, and that’s about it—in the works.

For my money, I like Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors and Kansas’s Cole Aldrich at the top of the 2010 Draft, with Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson making it a solid trio if he adds some muscle and keeps shooting like he has been.

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.