Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Los Angeles Lakers: Owner Jerry Buss throws around crazy money—his team’s $91 million payroll tops the league by a mile—and the other four teams in the division had an average record of 28-54 last year, so put two and two together and the Lakers are the easiest division champion lock in the NBA.

Able-to-do-everything big man Pau Gasol (20-10-ish machine as the team’s second option!) showed up two seasons ago, and LA’s 121-125 record over the previous three years was quickly forgotten about. The team has been in the last two NBA Finals with Gasol; many of the league’s stars aligned themselves on the IR last year, so the Lakers promptly added their 15th banner to the Staples Center rafters.

As a team, they take care of the ball, rebound their misses, and force opponents into bad shots and turnovers. Heady PG Derek Fischer is consistent and has had numerous late-game heroics, C Andrew Bynum is only 22 and has already had a double-double season (13 and 10 in ‘07-‘08), F Lamar Odom posted by far the team’s best Adjusted +/- (APM) in the regular season and in the playoffs, and newby G/F Ron Artest is probably the best perimeter defender in the league (and he’s always been a 15-20 ppg scorer). Yeah he could be a distraction, but Jack Nicholson sits courtside for God’s sake.

My thoughts on Kobe Bryant have already been stated. Just for the record, I think he’s a good player, but people are WAY overboard when calling him an all-time great… and what’s up with his celebratory underbite thing? The Lakers will obviously ride steady defense and offense to another good season, but their quest for a repeat will ultimately depend on the health of the rest of the NBA.

Could Make the Playoffs:

Phoenix Suns: GM Steve Kerr almost destroyed the Suns’ trademark running ways by adding a major player, and then a coach, who wanted no part of it (Shaquille O’Neal, Terry Porter). Well, they’re both gone now, and new coach Alvin Gentry wants to return to the Mike D’Antoni 7-seconds-or-less offense. Thankfully, they still have most of the pieces to make it work.

Two-time MVP Steve Nash is the ultimate fastbreak point guard (9.7 apg, 50% FG, 44% from deep), F/C Amar’e Stoudemire loves to dunk in transition, G/F Grant Hill is the more statistically acknowledged version of Shane Battier (great IQ on both ends), SG Leandro Barbosa’s speed and aggression have fit in well for the past 6 years, G/F Jason Richardson can score from all over, and new F/C Channing Frye likes to run the floor.

Plenty of pieces, plenty of fun–but where will the defense come from? Other teams have shot all over Phoenix for a few years, and losing Shaq won’t make it any better. If they continue to struggle on *that* end of the floor, another .500 to .550 season is in store, which doesn’t cut it in the West.

No Playoffs:

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin is a can’t-miss prospect and will help significantly. However, he’s stuck with a collection of sorta-name players who all have deficiencies in their games. PG Baron Davis can’t shoot (37% FG, 30% 3FG) and is unmotivated since getting paid heaps of cash for the next several years. SG Eric Gordon can score (16 ppg as a rookie), but he can’t pass (2.8 apg, and he was supposed to be a PG) and has trouble guarding taller guards. C Marcus Camby is still doing alright on his aging bones (10-11-2), and PG Sebastian Telfair shows up after many disappointing seasons, but I’m intrigued by his ridiculously high APM from last year.

The Clippers have played energized defense that’s resulted in a lot of fast break buckets this preseason, and hopefully for their fan(s?) this carries over into the regular season. Otherwise it’s more terrible defense and questionable offense on their way to 20 wins.

Golden State Warriors: Here’s how poorly run this franchise is: Stephen Jackson is a complete nut job, and he had to tell the team he shouldn’t be the captain. The Warriors are still playing Nellie-ball, which resulted in a league-fastest 98.2 possessions per game last year. They have the individuals to fly up the court, score, and get to the free-throw line. On the defensive side, other teams are getting up the court, scoring, rebounding their misses at an absurdly high 32%, and getting to the free-throw line.

Of particular note is the multi-talented PF Anthony Randolph (15 ppg, 11 rpg, 1 bpg, 1.5 spg in final month of rookie season), lights-out shooter Anthony Marrow (47% from deep as a rookie), uber-fast-but-braindead G Monta Ellis, and all-around-perfect-for-his-role C Andris Biedrins (12 ppg on 58% FG, 11 rpg, 1.6 bpg). And Jackson is actually quite talented. They score points; so do their opponents.

Blake Griffin Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Sacramento Kings: The frontline has the young, improving group of active F Jason Thompson, offensively skilled C Spencer Hawes, and rookie banger F Jon Brockman. The one veteran of note up front is underrated SF Andres Nocioni. SG Kevin Martin can score (24 ppg, although his 42% FG is bad), and that’s about it. PG Beno Udrih is fundamentally sound, and rookie G Tyreke Evans is an athletic freak. They could probably win the Pac-10.

Pacific Division award predictions, after the jump …

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By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Portland Trail Blazers: This should be simple. A squad of youngsters won the second-most games (54) in the West last year, then added the cagey Andre Miller, returned marksman SF Martell Webster, and watched Greg Oden take some big steps over the summer toward fulfilling his potential.

Maybe 60 wins? 65? Not so fast.

Their average-at-best defense is only slightly improved. Their amazing offense (tops-in-the-league 113.9 Offensive Rating – chiefly due to an abnormally high offensive rebounding rate) has taken a hit this preseason as the turnovers pile up. The team is so deep with talent, everyone is deservedly clamoring for minutes. If Coach Nate McMillan and forgotten superstar Brandon Roy settle everyone down, the team figures out who’s going to handle the ball when Roy and Miller share the backcourt, PF LaMarcus Aldridge keeps up his offense and picks up his rebounding, and Oden takes that big step, Portland will have a special special season. If egos get in the way and the offense slides back to simply above-average, they could turn out like Dallas has for the past 8 years.

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony decided he’d join Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, and Chris Andersen on defense, and now they have a ridiculous frontcourt that no big man wants to venture into with the ball—and these guys can all score as well. Denver is thin at the guard positions, but the starters are good ones. PG Chauncey Billups is a rugged competitor who breaks down defenses and directs traffic with the best of them, and has a knack for making teams gel in the playoffs. SG JR Smith hits big shots and is always around when fortunes turn the Nuggets’ way.

Denver is aggressive and stingy on defense, and opponents have a funny way of ending up prone on the floor; there must be hell to play, and that’s why you can expect another exciting postseason run from this group.

Carmelo Anthony Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Utah Jazz: Their frontcourt is littered with kinda-stars, but the Jazz rise and fall with PG Deron Williams. With only okay athleticism, Williams’ intelligence and crossover allow him to drive past opponents at will. He always knows what to do with the ball (10.7-3.4 A/TO) and provides a killing-them-softly 19.4 ppg. There are better point guards, but he is unquestionably in the most elite group.

The big men are a decent—but definitely not as great as they sound—collection that does a little of everything. C Mehmet Okur is a great shooter (49% FG, 45% 3FG) who can grab some boards (7.7). F Andrei Kirilenko is sadly no longer the defender he once was, but he’s still regularly in the middle of big plays. PF Carlos Boozer bulldozed his way to 10.4 rpg, but his shot is slipping (career-low 49%) and his defense is uninspiring. PF Paul Milsap used an intense motor and low center of gravity (6-8, 250 lbs) to average 14 and 9 in 30 minutes per game last year, but he’s back on the bench while Boozer hangs out in Utah for one more year. Expect more great battles between the top-three teams in the Northwest for another season.

No Playoffs:

Oklahoma City Thunder: They’re very exciting to watch and their bandwagon is overflowing, but let’s cut to the chase: their offense is bad and their defense is ho-hum. The Thunder’s adjusted FG% (simply FG% with a bump for 3′s, ex: 2-5 from 2′s is 40% but from 3′s is 60%) was a league-worst 47% last year. Overall, they can’t hit shots and they turn the ball over a lot (15% of possessions, 28th in NBA).

Will it be better this year? Hard not to be.

Durant can score (25 ppg), but he turns it over way too much and doesn’t play defense. F Jeff Green is versatile as hell and does everything decently, but nothing great. Russell Westbrook deserved more ROY consideration last year for the awesome job he did as a rookie PG, especially on the defensive end. They picked up gifted scorer James Harden in the draft, and are hoping PG Shaun Livingston can become the “wizard with the basketball” he was declared on draft night in 2004.

A year of maturity should help this can’t-yet-enter-a-bar squad, but they’re still far more wow than wins.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Al Jefferson is the truth (23 ppg, 11 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 50% FG), but he only averages 65 games per season (50 in 08-09) and is still plagued with Achilles tendinitis problems. Kevin Love grabbed 10 rpg over the last 4 months of his rookie season and had a league-high 15.1 Offensive Rebound Percent (percentage of own team’s missed shots rebounded), but he’s out for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. Ramon Sessions was a nice PG pickup who makes great decisions, and rookie backup PG Jonny Flynn is extremely athletic and aggressive. This is not a bad core (when healthy) to surround with more lottery picks over the next few years.

Just so I’m not misleading, the Timberwolves’ offense and defense are both pretty poor, and they’re not moving up in this top-heavy division. It looks like Kurt Rambis has the background to be a decent head coach, so I wish him the best of luck while his team gets its ass kicked for a while.

For more on the Minnesota Timberwolves, read our full 2009-10 season preview.

Northwest Division award predictions, after the jump …

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By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

San Antonio Spurs: They’re always in the mix because they still play the team-first, defense-first basketball that defined their three championships (and those of the Pistons and Celtics) throughout the decade. It all starts with all-timer Tim Duncan (registered 19-11-2 for one of the slowest teams in the league), and it continues with the fiery intensity of Tony Parker (great 51% FG because he runs the lay-up line during games) and Manu Ginobili.

Although it may not be obvious to everyone, 35-year-old FC Antonio McDyess (10-10 and 51% FG on the uber-slow Pistons) is a definite upgrade over the departed Drew Gooden, especially defensively. Athletic shooter/driver SF Richard “Peanut” Jefferson might have been the best pick-up this entire offseason, and he will allow the Spurs to bring Michael Finley off the bench.

Sitting next to Finley are some reserves who know their roles and play them well: defensive-minded C Theo Ratliff and the hard-working, intelligent duo of PF Matt Bonner and G Roger Mason. Not only was the selection of PF DeJuan Blair in the draft amazing because he was one of the top-two talents yet somehow available in the second round, he is outstanding at two of the areas the Spurs were lacking in last year: offensive rebounding (the Spurs corralled a league-low 22% of their misses) and getting to the free-throw line (San Antonio visited the charity strip a league-low 19.9 times per game).

If Duncan and Ginobili are back to full health, this group could steamroll through the postseason on their way to Duncan’s fifth ring.

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Dallas Mavericks: Dallas is a team with a lot of talent, a lot of payroll, and a lot of kinda-past-their-prime players. Jason Kidd continues to make nothing but smart decisions; his two-point shooting wasn’t so hot last year (42%), so he stuck primarily to triples (41%) and dishing it out (8.7-2.3 A/TO, 2nd best in league). Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry continue to score (combined for 63 ppg last year), and Terry’s a consistently good defender as well. C Erick Dampier uses his strength to rebound at a high rate (7.1 in 23 mpg), and forwards Drew Gooden and Shawn Marion are nice back-up bigs.

This collection sounds great (not to mention energy-boosting backup PG Jose Juan Barea), but they just don’t have the feel of a team that has it all together. When Kidd and Nowitzki are going crazy, they look like certain NBA champs. Is that their identity—hoping these two future HOFers can kill it every game? It got them blown out of the Denver series last year 4-1. They feel more like a team assembled by a zillionaire who buys every shiny piece he sees. Oh wait…

Dirk Nowitzki Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Houston Rockets: Houston epitomized great team play last year in taking LA to the brink with a 6-6 center and no Yao or T-Mac. They’re pretty much in the exact same boat (Yao Ming is out for the year, Tracy McGrady is always assumed to be hurt for a while), except they “traded” defensive master Ron Artest for defensive understudy Trevor Ariza.

They still have the killer fast combo of PGs in Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry (Von Wafer is now making $5 million a year in Greece). They also still have undersized, efficient bangers FC Luis Scola (6-9), F Chuck Hayes (6-6), and F Carl Landry (6-7). Reserve FC Joey Dorsey (6-9) will fill a similar role.

It goes without saying that Shane Battier represents the new model of a no-stats contributer to a winning cause (his only half-impressive number is 38% 3FG). This year will have to be different, however. For all the turmoil Artest provided (Dikembe Mutombo is praying for the Lakers – seriously), he easily shouldered the role of lead scorer. Can they still Moneyball their way into the second round without Yao for an entire season? Their defense is good, but probably not that good.

New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul is good (23 ppg on 50% FG). Like really good (11 apg, 2.8 spg). Like the rest of the Hornets had no business winning 49 games in the Western Conference last year. PF David West is still a great inside presence (21-8.5), Emeka Okafor is a huge defensive upgrade in the middle, and 6-10 F Peja Stojakovic can still bomb it from deep (career 40% 3FG). The rest of the team is other guys who can play off of Paul’s tremendous energy and sure-handed skill at both ends. He’s obviously the driving force behind the Hornets, but how much better can he get?

No Playoffs:

Memphis Grizzlies: They’re a mess. Zach Randolph is who you trade away—not for—especially after giving away Pau Gasol last year. Allen Iverson hurts the development of the upstart backcourt of O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley. They didn’t resign F Hakim Warrick, who the Bucks got for a steal at $3 million for one year. And I called Hasheem Thabeet a bust before the draft; I think some people are starting to get it now.

Here’s how you improve the Grizzlies:

Step 1 – Fire GM Chris Wallace.
Step 2 – Buy out or trade Randolph and Iverson.
Step 3 – Trade Thabeet and O.J. Mayo (ballhog, has always had bad turnover rates and so-so shot selection, questionable mental make-up).
Step 4 – Put just about anybody else around the fast-improving PG Conley, exciting SF Rudy Gay, hard-nosed C Marc Gasol, possibly-something FC Darrell Arthur, efficient giant C Hamed Haddadi, and what appears to be decent rookies in GF Sam Young and F DeMarre Carroll. (Maybe take all that leftover cap room you currently have and get Von Wafer back to America.)

Southwest Division award predictions, after the jump …

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Last Season’s Record: 24-58

Key Losses: Rodney Carney, Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Kevin Ollie, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair, Shelden Williams, Kevin McHale.

Key Additions: Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, Sasha Pavlovic, Oleksiy Pecherov, Ramon Sessions, Damien Wilkins, Kurt Rambis, Bill Laimbeer, Reggie Theus.

What significant moves were made in the offseason?

Obviously, a lot has changed in Minneapolis. The turnover of players was massive, perhaps more than anywhere else in the NBA. But here are the two moves that matter most: drafting Jonny Flynn and signing Kurt Rambis and his team of assistants to coach this mess.

The fact of the matter is that nobody knows what David Kahn and the Wolves got in Mr. Rambis, but you have to like the assistants he’s assembled to work with this young group. Bill Laimbeer was as tough as they come as a member of the Detroit Bad Boys, and hopefully he can impart some of that on Kevin Love and mild-mannered Al Jefferson. 13-year NBA veteran Reggie Theus has head-coaching experience and brings some fire and experience to the bench. Kyriakos Rambidis was a garbage-man type of player, taking care of dirty work, so he should also bring a strong work ethic. That’s not all though, in addition to implementing Phil Jackson and Tex Winters’ triangle offense he’s going to bring some Laker pride back to the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

A bulk of the national chatter surrounding the Wolves this offseason centered on their drafting of Ricky Rubio and subsequent inability to sign him. That’s fine, but there’s no reason to discuss him now because he’s not here. A month into the season, people are going to be talking about the Timberwolves point guards who are on the roster. Rookie Jonny Flynn is a tad undersized, but he’s a dynamic sparkplug and has all the potential to develop into the best point this team has had since a young Stephon Marbury was in town.

Flynn is extremely quick, aggressive on both ends and takes the ball to the basket with abandon. Against the Bucks earlier this preseason he shot a massive 15 free throws and knocked down 14 of ‘em. Flynn also has a decent jumper, but he should really thrive in transition for a young Wolves team that is committed to running more. The kid has the potential to be an All Star down the line, but Wolves fans are sick of hearing about potential. Fortunately I think they’re going to see results from the mature, professional young rookie this season.

Jonny Flynn Photo Credit: Icon SMI

The signing of Ramon Sessions was also an excellent move for Minnesota. It’s hard to believe a third-year guard with a career 6.0-2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio didn’t draw more interest on the market. Milwaukee messed with his minutes, but the kid has already scored 44 points in one game and recorded 24 assists in another. As a stater he’s dropped 14.8 points, 8.4 assists, 4.4 boards and 1.4 steals against 2.6 TOs in his short career. The Wolves got a major asset when they signed him to a four-year, $16 million in September. Kinda makes you wish they had gone after DeMar DeRozan instead of taking on the Ricky Rubio headache, no?

Breaking down Minnesota’s strengths and weaknesses, after the jump…

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By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James is the newer Garnett: supremely talented, unselfish, and a player who clearly makes everyone around him better. His combination of size, strength, and speed makes him impossible to stop on the fast break, and his 3-point shooting is coming along (34% last year). You already know this, but it can’t be stated enough: he does everything (7.6 rpg, 7.3 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.2 bpg, 9.4 fta).

The rest of the frontcourt is loaded: veteran jokester/jackass Shaquille O’Neal, Energizer Bunny PF Anderson Varejao, consistently solid C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and underrated athletic freak SF Jamario Moon. PF Leon Powe is a solid low-post presence, but he is still sidelined after undergoing ACL surgery in the spring. PG Mo Williams and SG Delonte West are both overrated because they play with LBJ, but they’re decent at what they do. SG Anthony Parker was another great pick-up (O’Neal, Moon, and Powe are also new to Cleveland) since he’s a perimeter shooter (39% 3FG), committed defender, and all-around under-appreciated player who can actually defend taller 3-pt shooters (he’s 6-6, far bigger than everyone else Orlando easily shot over in the playoffs).

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls lost a lot when SG Ben Gordon signed with Detroit, but SG John Salmons has come into his own (18 ppg, 42% 3FG), C Brad Miller is now fairly well-known for being an unknown star, and FC Joakim Noah is a caffeinated cartoon character out to rack up hustle plays. Oh yeah, and they possibly have the East’s best lead-guard: Derrick Rose.

I don’t know if he can score 900 on the SAT, but he’s a one-man fastbreak who has shown he can make great decisions on the fly (6.3-2.5 A/T). I would expect his production to take a jump as the Bulls continue to play fast, and hopefully he’s been getting some extra shooting in over the summer (22% 3FG). They can also get some positive minutes out of skilled SF Luol Deng, fast-break maestro PG Kirk Hinrich, and aggressive-but-possibly-nuts PF Tyrus Thomas.

Derrick Rose Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Detroit Pistons: The leftovers from their deep postseason runs in the middle of the decade are starting to get long in the tooth, but they will have to provide all the defensive intensity for a team whose focus appears to be shifting to offense. Ben Wallace (35) is back and can still rebound and play some D, but he’s no longer a feared enforcer in the paint. Richard Hamilton (turns 32 in February) is still a mid-range machine who plays great defense, very similar to Tayshaun Prince (turns 30 2 weeks later).

The more offensively-minded youngsters include PG Rodney Stuckey, who picked up his game last year (13.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), and new acquisition Ben Gordon, who will light it up off the bench. Another newbie is the Big Twitter, PF Charlie Villanueva, whose athleticism is generally only used for good when he has the ball. Rookies Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers could both contribute in the frontcourt. It’s tough to figure out what the identify of this team will be, so have fun Pistons fans.

For more on the Pistons, check out our full team preview.

No Playoffs:

Indiana Pacers: This team is kinda average, a little bad on defense, and they do it all while running (league’s third-fastest pace, 96.5 possessions per game), which means everyone’s stats are inflated. SF Danny Granger is a good outside shooter (40%) and ran his way to 26 ppg last year. PF Troy Murphy is a decent rebounder and ran his way to 12 rpg while hitting 45% from deep. TJ Ford is a good open court PG who has seen better days, but he ran his way to a career-high 15 ppg. C Jeff Foster is a high-intensity rebounder and defender who keeps Pacer possessions alive (3 orpg).

Some other names sound like they could be intriguing: athletic GF Brandon Rush, improved big stiff Roy Hibbert, major motor PF Tyler Hansbrough (he won’t be able to rebound or defend in this league, but he’ll score in this offense), still-hurt-but-could-be-okay SG Mike Dunleavy. It’s a below-average team that runs – that’s about it.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Good: Michael Redd can still score 20+, Andrew Bogut is a decent banger with good skills in the middle (when he’s not hurt), and SF Hakim Warrick is an exciting addition. The Bad: 37-year-old PF Kurt Thomas hasn’t played starter’s minutes in 6 years, and Luke Ridnour probably isn’t a starting PG.. The Ugly: The Bucks have no frontline depth, this team has injury problems out the wazoo, and PG Brandon Jennings is not the answer or the future – only the occasional sweet highlight.

Central Division award predictions, after the jump …

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By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Orlando Magic: They have a frontcourt to die for. Dwight Howard (21-14-3) is the truth and able to dismantle just about any other team’s entire frontline by himself through ridiculous strength and leaping ability. Rashard Lewis and Mickael Pietrus have the size and touch to regularly drain 3′s over everyone, and Pietrus is also a good defender. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes are energetic backups who both bring a gritty toughness to the inside. Marcin Gortat (3.8 pts, 4.5 rebs, 0.8 blks, 57% FG, in only 13 minutes per game last year) will challenge Joel Przybilla (Oden?) for the title of league’s best back-up center. It’s a stacked unit, oozing with defensive potential and a variety of offensive fireworks (although not necessarily a great rebounding group outside of the center position).

The backcourt is where it gets interesting. There are plenty of good things to say about heady point guard Jameer Nelson (50% FG, 45% 3FG, 5.4-2.0 A-TO, decent defender) and veteran scoring-machine Vince Carter. However, these two have injury-riddled pasts and Orlando has almost nothing to turn to on the bench. If this pair can remain healthy and minimize the minutes of on-the-road-again Anthony Johnson, streaky-shooting J.J. Redick, and sure-why-not Jason Williams, the Magic can return to the NBA Championships (where they weren’t as bad as you remember; they were 2 points away from leading 3-2).

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Washington Wizards: Antawn Jamison is a do-it-all offensive talent (22 ppg, 47% FG, 35% 3FG, 75% FT) who gets his hands on more than a few rebounds (8.9). SF Caron Butler and PG Gilbert Arenas round out this athletic, aggressive trio of stars. If if if Arenas can stay healthy for the first time since 06-07, this is a decent core to build around. C Brenden Haywood is a savvy veteran, and SG Mike Miller (career 40% 3FG) is the intelligent sharpshooter a trio like Washington’s needs. Backup G Randy Foye is a bit overrated, but he’s another aggressive, offensive-minded player to fit the starting unit’s mentality. DeShawn Stevenson adds more name recognition than anything, but he fits the aggressive mold. Hopefully this group can be healthy (so far this preseason, Haywood has sprained an ankle and Jamison has sprained his shoulder) so Alexander Ovechkin doesn’t have to carry the entire capital’s sports psyche on his back.

Atlanta Hawks: For the fifth year in a row, this is an up-and-coming bunch that could make noise in the East. Seriously Atlanta fans, I think your team has plateaued. There are too many self-centered talents on the Hawks to truly build the chemistry needed to improve on last year’s 47-35 record. It’s Joe Johnson’s (21 ppg, 5.8 apg, OK 44% FG and 36% 3FG) contract year, so he’ll want his. Josh Smith (16 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.6 bpg) just got paid big last year, so he thinks he should get his. Jamal Crawford (20 ppg, 41% FG with New York and Golden State last year) will come off the bench, but he is always out to get his even though he can’t shoot. Mike Bibby is a pretty good PG with plenty of handles and quicks and whatnot, but I doubt he’ll keep all these guys happy. Centers Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia should be getting the ball far more often (53% and 50% FG, respectively). Good luck with that.

Miami Heat: I’m sorry Dwayne Wade, but you deserved much more consideration for MVP last year after you got that rag-tag bunch of crap above .500 and into the playoffs. Since then, Miami lost the severely underrated Jamario Moon, added nobody (Q-Rich is in a decline), and will go through another grueling season with hopes that the maturation of PF Michael Beasley (24 and 12 in four starts at end of year) and PG Mario Chalmers (decent 4.9-2.0 A-TO, 37% 3FG) happens now. Jermaine O’Neal can still bring passion to the court, but he’s no longer what he once was. How well do you expect a team with little skill and just about zero guaranteed contracts beyond this year to do? Not well, is my guess.

No Playoffs:

Charlotte Bobcats: PG Raymond Felton is alright, but his backup D.J. Augustin has the smarts to be the better leader if he wasn’t on the bench. SF Gerald Wallace does a little of everything and is dynamic as hell while doing it. C Tyson Chandler (8.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 57% FG, all recent lows) can still be a good defender, but overall he’s a shell of what he was just a couple years ago. If they continue playing the half-decent defense they exhibited at the end of last year (see also: Head Coach Larry Brown), they could make a little noise in the East.

Handing out the individual award predictions, after the jump …

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It was an offseason of flux in the Central Division, but one thing remains constant: unless LeBron James gets injured the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to win this thing. The move to bring in Shaq seemed a bit reactionary after an inexplicable meltdown against the Dwight Howard-led Magic in the postseason, and you know how we feel about The Big Jackass. However, given the pace this team prefers to play at, I’m not concerned about Shaq slowing them down too much and there’s no question O’Neal will provide a scoring, rebounding and physical inside presence this team has sorely lacked (as much as a team that led the league with 66 wins a year ago “sorely lacks” anything). I’m a bigger fan of the Anthony Parker, Leon Powe and Jamario Moon additions. Parker is a solid shooter and capable defender on the wing, Moon is a freak athlete and hustle guy who can run the floor and challenge shots and Powe will bring excellent energy and rebounding in the post when he gets healthy. Those guys are going to give this team significant flexibility and depth.

Brian did an excellent season preview for the Pistons earlier this week, so check that out for more in-depth thoughts on Detroit. No team in basketball more radically altered a familiar core than the Pistons. In short: goodbye Sheed, Iverson, McDyess, Afflalo and Amir; hello Gordon, Villanueva, Austin Daye, Chris Wilcox and John Kuester, the new head coach. This is no longer a squad contending for a title, but they’re going to be more fun to watch and they’re definitely better equipped for the future.

The aforementioned Mr. Gordon joined the Pistons from the division rival Chicago Bulls after being spurned in contract negotiations, which hurts. As Blog-a-Bull put it below: “Key Losses: Ben Gordon, my faith in the franchise.”

Chicago didn’t add anybody of note outside of two modest-upside big men late in the first round (James Johnson and Taj Gibson) and after last season’s surprising playoff success hope for the coming season is not high in Chi Town. If youngsters Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas improve this season and Luol Deng stays healthy and plays up to expectations they could be a fringe playoff squad. They’re going to be an average team.

The Pacers had a lazy offseason, and after back-to-back lazy 36-win seasons, we can expect, well, a lot of yawning. Jarrett Jack, Marquis Daniels and Rasho Nesterovic left town and Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Earl Watson and Luthor Head were brought in. It’s hard to get too excited about any of those moves, although the development of Roy Hibbert will be interesting to watch. He’s shown serious flashes in preseason play.

The Milwaukee Bucks should be a little more fun to watch this season. They lost Richard “Peanut” Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva (who never fit with Scott Skiles) and ETB favorite Ramon Sessions, but brought in Hakim Warrick and electric rookie point guard Brandon Jennings. The pairing of Jennings and Skiles could go either way. In terms of personality off the court you’re not going to find two more different men, but Jennings has the skills to earn his coach’s trust on it. Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut will be back healthy as well, and the two will be leaned on heavily for this scrappy, offensively-challenged team.

Chicago Bulls

BlogABull.com | Give Me The Rock

Cleveland Cavaliers

Fear The Sword | WaitingForNextYear | Cavalier Attitude

Detroit Pistons

Motown String Music  | Empty the Bench | Pistons Nation | Need4Sheed.com

Indiana Pacers

Indy Cornrows

Milwaukee Bucks

BrewHoop

More 2008-09 NBA Blogger Previews

Eastern Conference:
- Atlantic Division
- Central Division
- Southwest Division

Western Conference:
- Southwest Division
- Northwest Division
- Pacific Division

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Boston Celtics: They will run away with this division again, particularly since Garnett—still the best player in the game—appears to be healthy. And they added Rasheed Wallace, a guy who fit in just fine with the old Pistons, another team-first club that expects everyone to play defense, rebound, and recognize the mismatches on offense. Boston is completely stacked with self-sacrificing veterans (Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Wallace) who do all the little things, and they’re all more than capable of scoring points, so opposing defenses can’t focus on any one player. Don’t forget about the uber-dynamic Rajon Rondo, who nearly averaged a triple-double over 14 playoff games last year (16.9, 9.7, 9.8 – damn!). They also have a decent bunch in powerful C Kendrick Perkins, reasonably skilled PF Glen Davis, 3-point specialist G Eddie House, and versatile G/F Marquis Daniels, all of whom will look good filling roles next to the aforementioned stars.

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Toronto Raptors: What do you think when you think Raptors? Probably Chris Bosh and maybe that big Italian guy. Well look at their starting lineup: the do-it-all big man Bosh; Andrea Bargnani, the 2006 #1 pick who got decent when everyone stopped paying attention (career highs last year of 15.4, 5.3, 1.2 blocks, 45% FG, 41% 3FG); the clutchy scorer Hedo Turkoglu (don’t forget that he’s a great passer – 4.9-2.7 A-TO); the under-appreciated Jose Calderon (great shooter, league-best 8.9-2.1 A-TO rate); and DeMar DeRozan, an athletic rookie who works his rear off. Offensive powerhouse Marco Belinelli will be a great back-up 2-guard. It looks like they’re going to score some points this year.

Philadelphia 76ers: They like to run and have some of the dogs to do it: Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young are long, athletic wings who create problems on both ends and in transition. PG Louis Williams’ undeniable physical talents show up from time-to-time, and Elton Brand can of course be awesome (when/if healthy). Samuel Dalembert is an interior defender, and most teams would enjoy bringing sharp-shooting SF Jason Kapono and athletic C Marreese Speights off the bench. Unfortunately, they lost point guard Andre Miller, who lead the league in this crazy number last season, which seems to indicate their fast break may not be nearly as good this year. They could miss the playoffs, or with a healthy Brand they could trap and run their way into the Eastern Conference Championships. Who knows?

Louis Williams Photo Credit: Icon SMI

New Jersey Nets: The combination of Brook Lopez and Devin Harris may be enough to make the playoffs in the East. Lopez has a great motor and improved greatly in his rookie campaign (last month of season: 15 ppg, 10 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 58% FG). Harris is more of a scorer than a shooter, but he has great court vision and is a fiery player. They have a smattering of other talent that can contribute to a positive season: skillful SG Courtney Lee, effective driving G/F Chris Douglas-Roberts, playmaker PG Rafer Alston, and energetic PF Josh Boone [Ed. note: Play the man!].

No Playoffs:

New York Knicks: Here are some awards the Knickerbockers could win this year: Most focused on the summer of 2010. Most likely to score 120 points without winning. Most back-ups whose names you recognize but you’re never sure if they’re any good (PG Nate Robinson, PF Al Harrington, SF Danilo Gallinari, PF Jordan Hill, FC Darko Milicic, F Jared Jeffries). Player best fit for a team’s system who probably wouldn’t be very good in any other system (David Lee). Player I suspect thinks he was never given a fair shake (Eddy Curry).

Handing out the individual award predictions, after the jump …

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There are some marquee matchups in the NFL this week, and unfortunately that means some elite fantasy defenses are drawing rough matchups. The Vikings stay within the confines of the Metrodome, but they will be hosting a vastly improved Ravens offense led by mad scientist Cam Cameron and newfound fantasy studs Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. It’s not a great matchup for Baltimore either, despite their formidable rush defense, as the Vikings attack is suddenly loaded with potent options – AP, Favre, Rice, Harvin, Berrian, Shiancoe and Taylor.

To date, New Orleans has been the best fantasy defense in the league on a per-game basis, but they’ll be hosting the New York Giants in their own dome. And this season that means not just bottling up the Giants dominant rushing attack but also dealing with their potent, varied passing attack. And while that Giants front line is still loaded with playmakers, they can’t exactly be licking their chops at playing the Saints on the road.

The top three options this week are your Eagles, Steelers and Jets, but the Packers, Redskins and Jags also make for some very sneaky plays.

See also:
- Week 6 QB Ranks
- Week 6 RB Ranks
- Week 6 WR Ranks
- Week 6 TE Ranks

1. Philadelphia Eagles @ OAK
2. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CLE
3. New York Jets vs. BUF
4. Green Bay Packers vs. DET
5. New England Patriots vs. TEN
6. Denver Broncos @ SD
7. Minnesota Vikings vs. BAL
8. Baltimore Ravens @ MIN
9. Washington Redskins vs. KC
10. New York Giants @ NO
11. Cincinnati Bengals vs. HOU
12. Seattle Seahawks vs. ARZ
13. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. STL
14. New Orleans Saints vs. NYG
15. Atlanta Falcons vs. CHI

There will be no better time this season to trade for Randy Moss. He was wide open for a long bomb last week that Tom Brady just airballed, but Brady looks more comfortable with his knee each week and he’ll start connecting on some of those deep throws very soon. Moss also draws the Titans secondary this week, which has been giving up yards to wideouts by the bushel all season. Given the Pats fantasy-playoffs schedule (vs. CAR, @ BUF, vs. JAC) this is a passing attack you’ll want to own a part of.

I was forced to eat a little crow with the DeSean Jackson ranking, massive photo and write-up last week, but I don’t think anybody saw that near-shutout coming. And as I said then, he’s still the rare player who can score on any touch. He’ll face one of the NFL’s toughest corners this week, but the Raiders defense as a whole looked like a JV squad last week. McNabb and DeSean have talked it out, and we expect the quarterback will make every effort to make his best playmaker look good this week. Oakland will also have to be honest with their safeties after Jeremy Maclin proved he’s not to be ignored last Sunday.

Braylon Edwards and Mark Sanchez photo credit: Icon SMI

Oh yeah, and Braylon Edwards crept into the first page of rankings after that stellar performance on Monday night. He finished with 5 receptions for 64 yards and 1 TD and one massive pass interference call. As we discussed last week in this space, that just doesn’t happen after mid-week trades, but the night could have been much bigger. Braylon dropped an easy TD on said pass interference call and he had one catch that was ruled a TD on the field placed on the 6-inch line after replay. He’s clearly the most physically gifted receiver in New York and he’s Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez’s new favorite toy. Fantasy owners should be thrilled with the development.

See also:
- Week 6 QB Ranks
- Week 6 RB Ranks
- Week 6 TE Ranks
- Week 6 DEF Ranks

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals @ SEA
2. Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. TEN
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans @ CIN
4. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinatti Bengals vs. HOU
5. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. CHI
6. Steve Smith, New York Giants @ NO
7. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers vs. DET (The revival starts this week)
8. Stevonne Smith, Carolina Panthers @ TB
9. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos @ SD
10. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. DEN
11. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles @ OAK
12. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints vs. NYG
13. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals @ SEA
14. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CLE
15. Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. TEN (Check Status)
16. Braylon Edwards, New York Jets vs. BUF

WR rankings 17 through 41, after the jump…

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