NBA Pacific Division Preview

- The Season's Over -

ETB’s Western Conference, Pacific Division Preview, Predictions, and Awards

October 21, 2009

Kobe Bryant Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Los Angeles Lakers: Owner Jerry Buss throws around crazy money—his team’s $91 million payroll tops the league by a mile—and the other four teams in the division had an average record of 28-54 last year, so put two and two together and the Lakers are the easiest division champion lock in the NBA.

Able-to-do-everything big man Pau Gasol (20-10-ish machine as the team’s second option!) showed up two seasons ago, and LA’s 121-125 record over the previous three years was quickly forgotten about. The team has been in the last two NBA Finals with Gasol; many of the league’s stars aligned themselves on the IR last year, so the Lakers promptly added their 15th banner to the Staples Center rafters.

As a team, they take care of the ball, rebound their misses, and force opponents into bad shots and turnovers. Heady PG Derek Fischer is consistent and has had numerous late-game heroics, C Andrew Bynum is only 22 and has already had a double-double season (13 and 10 in ‘07-‘08), F Lamar Odom posted by far the team’s best Adjusted +/- (APM) in the regular season and in the playoffs, and newby G/F Ron Artest is probably the best perimeter defender in the league (and he’s always been a 15-20 ppg scorer). Yeah he could be a distraction, but Jack Nicholson sits courtside for God’s sake.

My thoughts on Kobe Bryant have already been stated. Just for the record, I think he’s a good player, but people are WAY overboard when calling him an all-time great… and what’s up with his celebratory underbite thing? The Lakers will obviously ride steady defense and offense to another good season, but their quest for a repeat will ultimately depend on the health of the rest of the NBA.

Could Make the Playoffs:

Phoenix Suns: GM Steve Kerr almost destroyed the Suns’ trademark running ways by adding a major player, and then a coach, who wanted no part of it (Shaquille O’Neal, Terry Porter). Well, they’re both gone now, and new coach Alvin Gentry wants to return to the Mike D’Antoni 7-seconds-or-less offense. Thankfully, they still have most of the pieces to make it work.

Two-time MVP Steve Nash is the ultimate fastbreak point guard (9.7 apg, 50% FG, 44% from deep), F/C Amar’e Stoudemire loves to dunk in transition, G/F Grant Hill is the more statistically acknowledged version of Shane Battier (great IQ on both ends), SG Leandro Barbosa’s speed and aggression have fit in well for the past 6 years, G/F Jason Richardson can score from all over, and new F/C Channing Frye likes to run the floor.

Plenty of pieces, plenty of fun–but where will the defense come from? Other teams have shot all over Phoenix for a few years, and losing Shaq won’t make it any better. If they continue to struggle on *that* end of the floor, another .500 to .550 season is in store, which doesn’t cut it in the West.

Blake Griffin

No Playoffs:

Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin is a can’t-miss prospect and will help significantly. However, he’s stuck with a collection of sorta-name players who all have deficiencies in their games. PG Baron Davis can’t shoot (37% FG, 30% 3FG) and is unmotivated since getting paid heaps of cash for the next several years. SG Eric Gordon can score (16 ppg as a rookie), but he can’t pass (2.8 apg, and he was supposed to be a PG) and has trouble guarding taller guards. C Marcus Camby is still doing alright on his aging bones (10-11-2), and PG Sebastian Telfair shows up after many disappointing seasons, but I’m intrigued by his ridiculously high APM from last year.

The Clippers have played energized defense that’s resulted in a lot of fast break buckets this preseason, and hopefully for their fan(s?) this carries over into the regular season. Otherwise it’s more terrible defense and questionable offense on their way to 20 wins.

Golden State Warriors: Here’s how poorly run this franchise is: Stephen Jackson is a complete nut job, and he had to tell the team he shouldn’t be the captain. The Warriors are still playing Nellie-ball, which resulted in a league-fastest 98.2 possessions per game last year. They have the individuals to fly up the court, score, and get to the free-throw line. On the defensive side, other teams are getting up the court, scoring, rebounding their misses at an absurdly high 32%, and getting to the free-throw line.

Of particular note is the multi-talented PF Anthony Randolph (15 ppg, 11 rpg, 1 bpg, 1.5 spg in final month of rookie season), lights-out shooter Anthony Marrow (47% from deep as a rookie), uber-fast-but-braindead G Monta Ellis, and all-around-perfect-for-his-role C Andris Biedrins (12 ppg on 58% FG, 11 rpg, 1.6 bpg). And Jackson is actually quite talented. They score points; so do their opponents.

Blake Griffin Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Sacramento Kings: The frontline has the young, improving group of active F Jason Thompson, offensively skilled C Spencer Hawes, and rookie banger F Jon Brockman. The one veteran of note up front is underrated SF Andres Nocioni. SG Kevin Martin can score (24 ppg, although his 42% FG is bad), and that’s about it. PG Beno Udrih is fundamentally sound, and rookie G Tyreke Evans is an athletic freak. They could probably win the Pac-10.

Pacific Division award predictions, after the jump …

Individual Awards

Steve Nash Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Top 5 Players:

FC: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
F: Anthony Randolph, Golden State Warriors
F: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
G: Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

*Amar’e Soudemire could be in this group, but he disappears for too many stretches, especially on the defensive end.

Possible MVP:

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

Likelihood: Decent. I have to face facts: Fischer and Ariza dominated many Finals fourth quarters and overtimes to win close games, and Bryant still won Player of the Game every time. If LA wins the West again, Bryant will get all the credit no matter what his shooting percentage (he’s never shot 47% for a season) is or the contributions from the talented, deep Lakers.