Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

San Antonio Spurs: They’re always in the mix because they still play the team-first, defense-first basketball that defined their three championships (and those of the Pistons and Celtics) throughout the decade. It all starts with all-timer Tim Duncan (registered 19-11-2 for one of the slowest teams in the league), and it continues with the fiery intensity of Tony Parker (great 51% FG because he runs the lay-up line during games) and Manu Ginobili.

Although it may not be obvious to everyone, 35-year-old FC Antonio McDyess (10-10 and 51% FG on the uber-slow Pistons) is a definite upgrade over the departed Drew Gooden, especially defensively. Athletic shooter/driver SF Richard “Peanut” Jefferson might have been the best pick-up this entire offseason, and he will allow the Spurs to bring Michael Finley off the bench.

Sitting next to Finley are some reserves who know their roles and play them well: defensive-minded C Theo Ratliff and the hard-working, intelligent duo of PF Matt Bonner and G Roger Mason. Not only was the selection of PF DeJuan Blair in the draft amazing because he was one of the top-two talents yet somehow available in the second round, he is outstanding at two of the areas the Spurs were lacking in last year: offensive rebounding (the Spurs corralled a league-low 22% of their misses) and getting to the free-throw line (San Antonio visited the charity strip a league-low 19.9 times per game).

If Duncan and Ginobili are back to full health, this group could steamroll through the postseason on their way to Duncan’s fifth ring.

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Dallas Mavericks: Dallas is a team with a lot of talent, a lot of payroll, and a lot of kinda-past-their-prime players. Jason Kidd continues to make nothing but smart decisions; his two-point shooting wasn’t so hot last year (42%), so he stuck primarily to triples (41%) and dishing it out (8.7-2.3 A/TO, 2nd best in league). Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry continue to score (combined for 63 ppg last year), and Terry’s a consistently good defender as well. C Erick Dampier uses his strength to rebound at a high rate (7.1 in 23 mpg), and forwards Drew Gooden and Shawn Marion are nice back-up bigs.

This collection sounds great (not to mention energy-boosting backup PG Jose Juan Barea), but they just don’t have the feel of a team that has it all together. When Kidd and Nowitzki are going crazy, they look like certain NBA champs. Is that their identity—hoping these two future HOFers can kill it every game? It got them blown out of the Denver series last year 4-1. They feel more like a team assembled by a zillionaire who buys every shiny piece he sees. Oh wait…

Dirk Nowitzki Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Houston Rockets: Houston epitomized great team play last year in taking LA to the brink with a 6-6 center and no Yao or T-Mac. They’re pretty much in the exact same boat (Yao Ming is out for the year, Tracy McGrady is always assumed to be hurt for a while), except they “traded” defensive master Ron Artest for defensive understudy Trevor Ariza.

They still have the killer fast combo of PGs in Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry (Von Wafer is now making $5 million a year in Greece). They also still have undersized, efficient bangers FC Luis Scola (6-9), F Chuck Hayes (6-6), and F Carl Landry (6-7). Reserve FC Joey Dorsey (6-9) will fill a similar role.

It goes without saying that Shane Battier represents the new model of a no-stats contributer to a winning cause (his only half-impressive number is 38% 3FG). This year will have to be different, however. For all the turmoil Artest provided (Dikembe Mutombo is praying for the Lakers – seriously), he easily shouldered the role of lead scorer. Can they still Moneyball their way into the second round without Yao for an entire season? Their defense is good, but probably not that good.

New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul is good (23 ppg on 50% FG). Like really good (11 apg, 2.8 spg). Like the rest of the Hornets had no business winning 49 games in the Western Conference last year. PF David West is still a great inside presence (21-8.5), Emeka Okafor is a huge defensive upgrade in the middle, and 6-10 F Peja Stojakovic can still bomb it from deep (career 40% 3FG). The rest of the team is other guys who can play off of Paul’s tremendous energy and sure-handed skill at both ends. He’s obviously the driving force behind the Hornets, but how much better can he get?

No Playoffs:

Memphis Grizzlies: They’re a mess. Zach Randolph is who you trade away—not for—especially after giving away Pau Gasol last year. Allen Iverson hurts the development of the upstart backcourt of O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley. They didn’t resign F Hakim Warrick, who the Bucks got for a steal at $3 million for one year. And I called Hasheem Thabeet a bust before the draft; I think some people are starting to get it now.

Here’s how you improve the Grizzlies:

Step 1 – Fire GM Chris Wallace.
Step 2 – Buy out or trade Randolph and Iverson.
Step 3 – Trade Thabeet and O.J. Mayo (ballhog, has always had bad turnover rates and so-so shot selection, questionable mental make-up).
Step 4 – Put just about anybody else around the fast-improving PG Conley, exciting SF Rudy Gay, hard-nosed C Marc Gasol, possibly-something FC Darrell Arthur, efficient giant C Hamed Haddadi, and what appears to be decent rookies in GF Sam Young and F DeMarre Carroll. (Maybe take all that leftover cap room you currently have and get Von Wafer back to America.)

Southwest Division award predictions, after the jump …

Individual Awards

Top 5 Players:

C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
G: Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks

Possible MVPs:

Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Likelihood: Not so good. Paul deserves more consideration considering how far he’s brought a once-terrible Hornets franchise. Duncan and Nowitzki are always great on great teams. Unfortunately, David Stern and his cronies seem to choose the possible MVPs deep in a lair before each season and let the media outlets know who to pump up all year, and the award is currently reserved for James, Wade, Howard, or Bryant, regardless of what happens on the court over the next 6 months.

Possible ROY:

DeJuan Blair,San Antonio Spurs

Likelihood: Okay at best. Blair might be the most talented rookie, but he has to wait his turn on the veteran Spurs while Blake Griffin has been the go-to guy on the Clippers as of May 19, when they won the #1 pick in the lottery. Just for fun, though, I looked at the 16 minutes of shared court time these two had in last Wednesday’s exhibition. Griffin had 0 rebounds to Blair’s 5. That’s a zero, not a typo. Without Blair on the court, Griffin pulled down 7 in 12 minutes.

Least-Known Player Who’s Still Overrated:

Marko Jaric, Memphis Grizzlies: You might think he is or was once good because of this or this, but you would be quite wrong.

Most Well-Known Player Who’s Still Underrated:

Antonio McDyess, San Antonio Spurs

More 2009 NBA Divisional Previews:
- Eastern Conference, Central Division
- Eastern Conference, Southeast Division
- Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.