Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Portland Trail Blazers: This should be simple. A squad of youngsters won the second-most games (54) in the West last year, then added the cagey Andre Miller, returned marksman SF Martell Webster, and watched Greg Oden take some big steps over the summer toward fulfilling his potential.

Maybe 60 wins? 65? Not so fast.

Their average-at-best defense is only slightly improved. Their amazing offense (tops-in-the-league 113.9 Offensive Rating – chiefly due to an abnormally high offensive rebounding rate) has taken a hit this preseason as the turnovers pile up. The team is so deep with talent, everyone is deservedly clamoring for minutes. If Coach Nate McMillan and forgotten superstar Brandon Roy settle everyone down, the team figures out who’s going to handle the ball when Roy and Miller share the backcourt, PF LaMarcus Aldridge keeps up his offense and picks up his rebounding, and Oden takes that big step, Portland will have a special special season. If egos get in the way and the offense slides back to simply above-average, they could turn out like Dallas has for the past 8 years.

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony decided he’d join Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, and Chris Andersen on defense, and now they have a ridiculous frontcourt that no big man wants to venture into with the ball—and these guys can all score as well. Denver is thin at the guard positions, but the starters are good ones. PG Chauncey Billups is a rugged competitor who breaks down defenses and directs traffic with the best of them, and has a knack for making teams gel in the playoffs. SG JR Smith hits big shots and is always around when fortunes turn the Nuggets’ way.

Denver is aggressive and stingy on defense, and opponents have a funny way of ending up prone on the floor; there must be hell to play, and that’s why you can expect another exciting postseason run from this group.

Carmelo Anthony Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Utah Jazz: Their frontcourt is littered with kinda-stars, but the Jazz rise and fall with PG Deron Williams. With only okay athleticism, Williams’ intelligence and crossover allow him to drive past opponents at will. He always knows what to do with the ball (10.7-3.4 A/TO) and provides a killing-them-softly 19.4 ppg. There are better point guards, but he is unquestionably in the most elite group.

The big men are a decent—but definitely not as great as they sound—collection that does a little of everything. C Mehmet Okur is a great shooter (49% FG, 45% 3FG) who can grab some boards (7.7). F Andrei Kirilenko is sadly no longer the defender he once was, but he’s still regularly in the middle of big plays. PF Carlos Boozer bulldozed his way to 10.4 rpg, but his shot is slipping (career-low 49%) and his defense is uninspiring. PF Paul Milsap used an intense motor and low center of gravity (6-8, 250 lbs) to average 14 and 9 in 30 minutes per game last year, but he’s back on the bench while Boozer hangs out in Utah for one more year. Expect more great battles between the top-three teams in the Northwest for another season.

No Playoffs:

Oklahoma City Thunder: They’re very exciting to watch and their bandwagon is overflowing, but let’s cut to the chase: their offense is bad and their defense is ho-hum. The Thunder’s adjusted FG% (simply FG% with a bump for 3’s, ex: 2-5 from 2’s is 40% but from 3’s is 60%) was a league-worst 47% last year. Overall, they can’t hit shots and they turn the ball over a lot (15% of possessions, 28th in NBA).

Will it be better this year? Hard not to be.

Durant can score (25 ppg), but he turns it over way too much and doesn’t play defense. F Jeff Green is versatile as hell and does everything decently, but nothing great. Russell Westbrook deserved more ROY consideration last year for the awesome job he did as a rookie PG, especially on the defensive end. They picked up gifted scorer James Harden in the draft, and are hoping PG Shaun Livingston can become the “wizard with the basketball” he was declared on draft night in 2004.

A year of maturity should help this can’t-yet-enter-a-bar squad, but they’re still far more wow than wins.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Al Jefferson is the truth (23 ppg, 11 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 50% FG), but he only averages 65 games per season (50 in 08-09) and is still plagued with Achilles tendinitis problems. Kevin Love grabbed 10 rpg over the last 4 months of his rookie season and had a league-high 15.1 Offensive Rebound Percent (percentage of own team’s missed shots rebounded), but he’s out for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. Ramon Sessions was a nice PG pickup who makes great decisions, and rookie backup PG Jonny Flynn is extremely athletic and aggressive. This is not a bad core (when healthy) to surround with more lottery picks over the next few years.

Just so I’m not misleading, the Timberwolves’ offense and defense are both pretty poor, and they’re not moving up in this top-heavy division. It looks like Kurt Rambis has the background to be a decent head coach, so I wish him the best of luck while his team gets its ass kicked for a while.

For more on the Minnesota Timberwolves, read our full 2009-10 season preview.

Northwest Division award predictions, after the jump …

Individual Awards

Top 5 Players:

C: Al Jefferson, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Nene Hilario, Denver Nuggets
F: Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
G: Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
G: Deron Williams, Utah Jazz

*It’s ridiculous how loaded the Northwest frontcourts are. Several other bigs could have found their way onto the Top 5 in other divisions: LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers; Chris Andersen, Denver Nuggets; Carlos Boozer, Utah Jazz; Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets; Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz; Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers; Mehmet Okur, Utah Jazz; Joel Przybilla, Portland Trail Blazers.

** With an improvement in Kevin Durant’s rebounding and defense, he could easily be in this loaded Top 5.

Possible MVPs:

Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets

Likelihood: So-so. If the Trail Blazers improve and Roy picks up his scoring average (unlikely on a team this slow and unselfish), he could make a run for it. Denver’s defense could propel them to the top of the West, and leading scorers on good teams always get all the credit.

Possible ROY:

James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jonny Flynn, Minnesota Timberwolves

Likelihood: Okay – not so okay. Harden could be the #2 scorer on the Thunder by season’s end, and ROY awards are 80% scoring. Flynn motors his way to tons of free throws and will get some assists, but he’ll probably sit on the bench behind Ramon Sessions (which is the right decision, by the way). If Blake Griffin gets hurt, Harden could win it.

Least-Known Player Who’s Still Overrated:

Kyle Korver, Utah Jazz

Most Well-Known Player Who’s Still Underrated:

LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers: 18 and 8 aren’t bad numbers for a still-improving player on the slowest team in the league.

More 2009 NBA Divisional Previews:
- Eastern Conference, Central Division
- Eastern Conference, Southeast Division
- Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division
- Western Conference, Southwest Division

Zachariah Blott cannot recommend Rick Telander’s “Heaven Is A Playground” enough.