Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

Winner:

Orlando Magic: They have a frontcourt to die for. Dwight Howard (21-14-3) is the truth and able to dismantle just about any other team’s entire frontline by himself through ridiculous strength and leaping ability. Rashard Lewis and Mickael Pietrus have the size and touch to regularly drain 3’s over everyone, and Pietrus is also a good defender. Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes are energetic backups who both bring a gritty toughness to the inside. Marcin Gortat (3.8 pts, 4.5 rebs, 0.8 blks, 57% FG, in only 13 minutes per game last year) will challenge Joel Przybilla (Oden?) for the title of league’s best back-up center. It’s a stacked unit, oozing with defensive potential and a variety of offensive fireworks (although not necessarily a great rebounding group outside of the center position).

The backcourt is where it gets interesting. There are plenty of good things to say about heady point guard Jameer Nelson (50% FG, 45% 3FG, 5.4-2.0 A-TO, decent defender) and veteran scoring-machine Vince Carter. However, these two have injury-riddled pasts and Orlando has almost nothing to turn to on the bench. If this pair can remain healthy and minimize the minutes of on-the-road-again Anthony Johnson, streaky-shooting J.J. Redick, and sure-why-not Jason Williams, the Magic can return to the NBA Championships (where they weren’t as bad as you remember; they were 2 points away from leading 3-2).

Could Make the Playoffs (In Order of Likelihood):

Washington Wizards: Antawn Jamison is a do-it-all offensive talent (22 ppg, 47% FG, 35% 3FG, 75% FT) who gets his hands on more than a few rebounds (8.9). SF Caron Butler and PG Gilbert Arenas round out this athletic, aggressive trio of stars. If if if Arenas can stay healthy for the first time since 06-07, this is a decent core to build around. C Brenden Haywood is a savvy veteran, and SG Mike Miller (career 40% 3FG) is the intelligent sharpshooter a trio like Washington’s needs. Backup G Randy Foye is a bit overrated, but he’s another aggressive, offensive-minded player to fit the starting unit’s mentality. DeShawn Stevenson adds more name recognition than anything, but he fits the aggressive mold. Hopefully this group can be healthy (so far this preseason, Haywood has sprained an ankle and Jamison has sprained his shoulder) so Alexander Ovechkin doesn’t have to carry the entire capital’s sports psyche on his back.

Atlanta Hawks: For the fifth year in a row, this is an up-and-coming bunch that could make noise in the East. Seriously Atlanta fans, I think your team has plateaued. There are too many self-centered talents on the Hawks to truly build the chemistry needed to improve on last year’s 47-35 record. It’s Joe Johnson’s (21 ppg, 5.8 apg, OK 44% FG and 36% 3FG) contract year, so he’ll want his. Josh Smith (16 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.6 bpg) just got paid big last year, so he thinks he should get his. Jamal Crawford (20 ppg, 41% FG with New York and Golden State last year) will come off the bench, but he is always out to get his even though he can’t shoot. Mike Bibby is a pretty good PG with plenty of handles and quicks and whatnot, but I doubt he’ll keep all these guys happy. Centers Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia should be getting the ball far more often (53% and 50% FG, respectively). Good luck with that.

Miami Heat: I’m sorry Dwayne Wade, but you deserved much more consideration for MVP last year after you got that rag-tag bunch of crap above .500 and into the playoffs. Since then, Miami lost the severely underrated Jamario Moon, added nobody (Q-Rich is in a decline), and will go through another grueling season with hopes that the maturation of PF Michael Beasley (24 and 12 in four starts at end of year) and PG Mario Chalmers (decent 4.9-2.0 A-TO, 37% 3FG) happens now. Jermaine O’Neal can still bring passion to the court, but he’s no longer what he once was. How well do you expect a team with little skill and just about zero guaranteed contracts beyond this year to do? Not well, is my guess.

No Playoffs:

Charlotte Bobcats: PG Raymond Felton is alright, but his backup D.J. Augustin has the smarts to be the better leader if he wasn’t on the bench. SF Gerald Wallace does a little of everything and is dynamic as hell while doing it. C Tyson Chandler (8.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 57% FG, all recent lows) can still be a good defender, but overall he’s a shell of what he was just a couple years ago. If they continue playing the half-decent defense they exhibited at the end of last year (see also: Head Coach Larry Brown), they could make a little noise in the East.

Handing out the individual award predictions, after the jump …

Individual Awards

Top 5 Players:

C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
F: Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards
F: Rashard Lewis, Orlando Magic
G: Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat
G: Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic

Possible MVPs:

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat

Likelihood: OK. If Orlando has the best record in the East, Howard will get some consideration. If the Heat can make the playoffs behind another monster season by Wade, he’ll have a chance.

Possible ROY:

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

Likelihood: None. He looks to be a good PG who could get some nice assist totals if Bibby was injured since there are plenty of scorers on Atlanta, but even if that happens, most of the Hawks like to get the ball and then create for themselves.

Sorriest Backup Unit in the League:

This is very unscientific, but the Bobcats’ back-up bigs have to be the worst group off the bench in the NBA. They got C DeSagana Diop, who is slow and terribly painful to watch on offense (Remember Acie Earl back in the 90’s?). Vladimir Radanovich is 6-10 and can’t defend or score inside; I suspect the trade from LA crushed his soul (He’s been starting while Boris Diaw has been out with a sprained ankle). Rookie F Derrick Brown is a typical second-round pick in his rookie season. Frenchman Alexis Ajinca absolutely killed the American big men at the Nike Hoops Summit two years ago (Georgetown’s Greg Monroe, UNC’s Ed Davis, WF’s Al-Farouq Aminu), but he needs to develop a killer instinct at this level to capitalize on his potential.

Least-Known Player Who’s Still Overrated:

Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks

Most Well-Known Player Who’s Still Underrated:

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks

Zachariah Blott is a teacher in Portland, not an Amish Charles Dickens character.