ETB’s 2009 NFL Previews: AFC South
August 3, 2009
By Darren Yuvan
With training camp underway in the NFL, ETB’s Darren Yuvan will break down the league’s outlook division by division. His final AFC preview looks at the AFC South, where he’s going against the grain and hitching his bandwagon to the upstart Houston Texans. Don’t miss the AFC North, AFC West, and AFC East previews too.
1 – Houston Texans
Houston is a huge surprise pick to win the AFC South, but the Texans seem to be the only South team on their way upward. With quality starters on every unit and an effective system fully in place, this could finally be the year for Houston. If you’re looking for this year’s sleeper team, go with these guys and an 11 – 5 record.
The key to Houston’s success will be the health of Matt Schaub. If he stays healthy for a full 16 games, the Texans’ first division title becomes a reality. If Dan Orlovsky or Rex Grossman are forced into any extended action, their chances drop exponentially.
Schaub has plenty of offensive weapons at his disposal. Running back Steve Slaton is coming off an impressive rookie year where he rushed for over 1,200 yards, and veteran Chris Brown backs him up as a change of pace, between-the-tackles pounder.
Andre Johnson is one of the top receivers in the league and should once again put up huge numbers, and Kevin Walter, Andre Davis and tight end Owen Daniels are all solid targets.
Long known as a team weakness during the David Carr Era, the offensive line seems to have come together with a little continuity and the implementation of a zone-blocking scheme. The line returns all five starters and should take even more strides again this year to help make this a dangerous Houston offense.
On the other side of the ball, Mario Williams anchors a defensive line that also finally looks ready to come into it’s own. And despite only getting 25 sacks as a team last year (12 of them by Williams), this group has talent in Amobi Okoye and Travis Johnson. It’s time for them to put it all together as a complete line rotation.
Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans lead a solid linebacking corps, with Kevin Bentley and Cato June helping to make this one of the deepest positions on the roster.
The secondary could be an area of concern, as the Texans gave up 24 passing TDs last year, and starting corner Dunta Robinson looks to be holding out. It will be up to new secondary coach David Gibbs to get more out of this unit.
Darren Yuvan breaks down the rest of the AFC South after the break…
2 – Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a team of major knowns and major unknowns. Of course we expect Peyton Manning to light it up, and Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez to be the major recipients.
We know the defensive line, led by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will get after the quarterback, as those two combined for 22 sacks last season.
And we know Bob Sanders, when healthy, is one of the best in the game, and he combines with corners Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson to make one of the toughest secondaries in the league. Colts opponents scored only 6 TDs through the air last season, and that was with Sanders on the injury shelf for 12 games.
What we don’t know, however, slightly outnumbers what we do. We don’t know yet how the Colts will react to first-year coach Jim Caldwell, though Tony Dungy’s successor was picked a while ago and comes from the Dungy school of thought, so the switch shouldn’t be too drastic.
We don’t know the how Joseph Addai will bounce back from an injury-plagued and ineffective season punctuated by offseason knee surgery. If Addai shows any of the hesitation he suffered through last year or doesn’t look fully recovered, expect first-round draft pick Donald Brown to step in and supplant him as the starter.
We don’t know who will step up as the number #3 receiver, which, from Brandon Stokely up to Gonzalez last year, has traditionally been an important weapon for Peyton Manning’s offense. Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Sam Giguere, Roy Hall, Brett McDermott and Taj Smoth will all be competing for the open number three-receiver position. Say who?
We don’t know if the offensive line can remain healthy, as Jeff Saturday, Tony Ugoh and Mike Pollack all suffered injuries last year, decimating the line and the running game. On the bright side, Steve Justice, Jamey Richard and Charlie Johnson all received valuable playing time and experience in the starters’ absence and will provide solid depth should anyone go down again.
We don’t know if the Colts defensive line can stop the run, as they let up almost 2,000 yards on the ground last season, along with 18 touchdowns. Will the addition of Fili Maola, Terrance Taylor, and Adrian Grady help shore up a major problem area? It might be too much ask those youngsters.
And lastly, the Colts have only one established linebacker in Gary Brackett, with Philip Wheeler and Clint Session not firmly entrenched as starters, despite showing promise.
All in all, it adds up for a few too many unanswered questions for the Colts to be considered the powerhouse we’ve come to expect out of Indy. They’ll still be a decent team, but will most likely squeak into the playoffs and be gone in the first round.
3 – Tennessee Titans
Expect the Titans to slip in 2009 as well, as it’s hard to live up to a 13 – 3 record year in and year out. And with Kerry Collins yet another year closer to retirement and Vince Young hardly ready to step in a run the team, the Titans will be battling it out with the Colts for second place in the division with a record hovering around 9 – 7 or 10 – 6. Collins is no Peyton Manning and will probably regress this season, and expect the Titans to fall to third place and barely miss the postseason.
The Titans will once again rely on their punishing ground attack, with the sensational Chris Johnson and his 1,200 yards once again teaming with Lendale White and his 15 TDs to form what may be the best two-pronged rushing attack in the league. The fact that the Titans offensive line returns in it’s entirety from last year can only help the cause.
The addition of wide receiver Nate Washington, brought in from Pittsburgh, is a boost to the talent level in the passing attack, but still, Washington is far from a #1 receiver, and if Collins’ production falls off this season as expected, Washington and #2 receiver Justin Gage will struggle as well.
The Titans have a deep enough rotation on the defensive line to help offset the loss of Albert Haynesworth, but don’t expect the transition to be seamless. You just don’t lose a player of Haynesworth’s calibre and not notice his absence. The Titans’ front line should still be nasty, especially if Jevon Kearse can return to form, but it’ll be a little less nasty than in years past without Big Albert around.
Keith Bullock leads a linebacking corps that lacks other playmakers, and that could be an issue if the defensive line drops off a little without Haynesworth. Injuries will also be an issue if they occur to the Titans’ weakest defensive group.
The secondary may be the best unit on this team, with three Pro Bowlers in Chris Hope, Cortland Finnegan, and Michael Griffin. Expect this group to shine again, but expecting all three to return to the Pro Bowl again may be a little too much.
Ultimately, the Titans overachieved a bit last season, and with a tougher schedule, plus slight dropoffs at the QB position and on the defense, Tennessee falls back to the middle of the pack where they belong.
4 – Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags have experienced an overall dropoff in just about every unit from the team that reached the playoffs two seasons ago. This is a team in rebuilding mode, and they still look thin just about everywhere. Place the Jags not only near the bottom of the South, but once again near the bottom of the NFL.
David Garrard is the unquestioned starter at QB, though he’s a middle-of-the-pack quality NFL QB, and the Jags have no one of note behind him with Todd Bouman Garrard’s backup. If Garrard goes down, it’s going to be one long season in Jacksonville.
Maurice Jones-Drew should be one of the lone bright spots on the team as he’s no longer splitting carries with the departed Fred Taylor, and he should have a big year as Jacksonville’s main offensive threat. He’ll contribute in both the rushing and passing games. Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings will see some carries as well.
There’s been a complete turnover at the wide receiver position, which doesn’t bode well for the Jags passing success. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Dennis Northcutt have been replaced by Torry Holt, Mike Walker and Troy Williamson. The only upgrade is Holt, and who knows how much the veteran has left in the tank?
The offensive line struggled mightily a year ago, and Jacksonville addressed that need in the draft by selecting tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. Look for both players in the Jags’ starting lineup if they can get them signed, but they’ll need time to adjust to the NFL and gel.
The defense also looks like it will struggle again this season, especially against the pass, if they can’t upgrade their 29 sacks and 13 interceptions from a year ago.
The Jags need better production from their defensive line, which was formally a strength. Their sack leader, Reggie Heyward, had only 4.5 sacks last season. They hope to get better production out of Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, two youngsters who have talent but haven’t translated it into huge on-the-field success.
The linebackers are a particular area of weakness, with no huge playmakers and very little depth. Daryl Smith is probably their best linebacker of note, and even he’s not wowing anyone anytime soon. The Jags are really hurting here.
The secondary also had some turnover, losing Drayton Florence and Gerald Sensabaugh in the offseason. Sean Considine, Gerald Alexander, and rookie Derek Cox were brought in to help, but only time will tell if they can help out a unit that had many issues last season.
More 2009 NFL Division Previews:
- AFC North
- AFC West
- AFC East
Born in Pittsburgh and currently residing in New York City, Darren is a part-time writer, part-time night club disc jockey (vinyl only, please), full-time cog in the corporate machine, both a card-carrying member of Raider Nation and the owner of several Terrible Towels, and has also had a slightly unhealthy man-crush on Hakeem Olajuwon since 1986.
2 Comments »Posted by ETB Contributor on Aug. 3, 2009 at 12:01 am in ETB Articles, NFL
