Empty the Bench

Andrew Thell, Writer, Editor, and Co-Founder

I’m a little tired of being the guy that doubts this Orlando Magic squad only to see them topple opponent after opponent and exceed expectations. I’m a believer in this team. They’re good. Very good. They’ve earned their trip to the NBA Finals with stellar play throughout the regular season and postseaon. So instead of simply describing how I see them losing this time around, I’ll lay out two scenarios followed by my actual prediction.

The Orlando Magic Topple the Los Angeles Lakers: Mickael Pietrus plays like a true difference maker on both ends, bodying up on Kobe Bryant and frustrating him into ill-advised shots and passes. He also gets hot from outside, forcing Kobe and Ariza to stay honest on him at the perimeter. Meanwhile, Dwight dominates the meek Los Angeles big men, consistently getting Andrew Bynum in foul trouble and forcing the weaker Pau Gasol to expend a bulk of his energy playing man defense. Los Angeles is forced to turn to Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga to play more minutes than they ever wanted to.

This all plays into the Magic’s hands, as so much attention is drawn inside on both offense and defense that LA cannot execute their intricate sets or fluent team play. It leaves Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu free to roam in the perimeter, to either knock down key shot after key shot or slice to the lane for easy buckets or free throws. Rafer Alston steps up to the big stage, making the defensively challenged and offensively limited Los Angeles points a liability. As the Lakers dare him to shoot night after night he consistently makes them pay. Orlando manages to steal one of the first two games in LA as the Lake Show simply doesn’t show up (again), then holds serve in their three home games, winning in five.

The Los Angeles Lakers Win Their 15th NBA Title: The Lakers come out and play the way we all know they’re capable of. They play like the only team in the NBA to finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating. They execute on offense with deadly efficiency, coming out of the gate poised and aggressive. Their clean execution and multitude of scorers on offense are simply too much for Orlando to handle, as their crisp passing and disciplined approach consistently finds open jumpers on the weak side and the interior offense attacks Dwight Howard’s backside.

Pau Gasol continues to hold his own on the glass, finishing with double-digit rebounds in each Lakers win. Andrew Bynum steps up to the challenge and bodies up on Dwight Howard, making him look like simply an All Star rather than the generational talent he is. On the outside Trevor Ariza is able to stick with Turkogou and Lewis while leading the series in steals and continuing to hit over half of his field-goal attempts, including key open makes from downtown. The Lake Show’s trio of points each bring something to the table, with Derek Fisher hitting timely, open threes, Jordan Farmar simply running the offense when called upon and Shannon Brown attacking the rim in dramatic fashion.

Meanwhile, Kobe stands back like the field general he is, watching it all and stepping up each night with what his team needs — be it 40 points, 10 assists or simply solid perimeter defense.

It’s obviously going to be a little from Column A, a little from Column B. But in the end, superior talent, depth and experience win out.

Prediction: Lakers in 5.

Brian Spencer, Writer, Editor, and Co-Founder

The Orlando Magic have played the “we don’t get any respect” card to their advantage as beautifully as the Detroit Pistons did during their successful run over the past half-decade. Despite a strong 59-23 regular-season record, few took them seriously coming into the playoffs (including yours truly), but all they’ve done is close out the defending champion Boston Celtics on the road in Round 2 and rather easily dispatch of the championship favorite Cleveland Cavaliers in a tidy six games. They’re humming, and they’re hungry.

The current incarnation of the Lakers have been here before–last year, to be exact. Some players are performing at a higher level now (Gasol, Ariza), while others have regressed (Bynum, Vujacic). The inconsistency has been well-documented during these playoffs, but when they’re on, this is probably the most complete team in the league. Their last effort, Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, may have been their most dominant one, but that’s not necessarily an indicator of, well, anything. They’re that unpredictable.

Matchups, experience (or lack thereof), depth, coaching–it all arguably boils down to a wash, or at least close to a wash. What this series may just come down to is this: which team wants it more, and which team is best equipped to handle the pressure? This feels a bit premature for Orlando, just like it did for Cleveland back in ’07. As you know, Cleveland lost that series to the San Antonio Spurs 4-0.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.

ETB’s distinguished contributing writers weigh in on the 2009 NBA Finals after the break…

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Right or wrong, the NBA and its teams are marketed by their brand name superstars. Never is that more apparent than in the postseason, where based on the commercials for every series you would swear there were only two or three players on any given roster. Kobe. LeBron. Dwight. KG. Melo. Chauncey. Yao. Brandon. Deron. Ron. Chris. Dirk. But those of us who actually watch the games on a nightly basis (or just watched the Cleveland-Orlando series) know that there’s no star in the league capable of doing it all himself. Every night it’s about the team around them.

The Lake Show is as much a team effort as any squad. Kobe and Pau are going to get theirs. We know what those fine gentlemen bring to the scorer’s table on a nightly basis. And while the Lakers roster is capable of being the deepest in the league on any given night, after their Big Two they also sport some maddeningly inconsistent players. If the Minneapolis/Los Angeles Lakers are to hoist their 15th NBA Championship trophy this summer, they’re going to need significant contributions from their stable of role players.

It starts down low, where Andrew Bynum needs to finally start playing like the low-post force we all know he can be. He may or may not be 100% physically right now, but there’s no debating that he’s at less than full strength between the ears. It’s time to let those struggles go and come out with renewed focus in this marquee matchup against the NBA’s most dominant center. Nobody expects Bynum to man up against Dwight and play him to a standstill, but he’s physically capable of playing Dwight straight up and keeping the Magic honest.

Sasha Vujacic and Andrew Bynum Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Howard is going to get his 20-30 points and 10-15 rebounds a night, and that’s OK. The Lakers can live with that. What they can’t live with is Bynum coming into the game and picking up three quick fouls in the first half and riding pine for a bulk of the second half, leaving them shorthanded and compromised around the rim and on the glass. They also can’t live with having to double down on Dwight every possession, freeing up Orlando’s stellar perimeter shooters. Bynum can let the offense come to him in the flow of the game, but what LA needs more is for him to focus on the defensive glass or Dwight will cause the Lakers a slow death by Chinese water torture with multiple shots per possession.

Of equal importance will be the play of the Lakers’ lanky wing defenders. Specifically, Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom. Magic forwards and primary three-point threats Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are both listed at 6-10, and they’ve grown accustomed to shooting over everybody who’s been thrown at them in the postseason thus far. That’s why the length and athleticism of Ariza and Odom, who measure in at 6-8 and 6-10 respectively, will be key.

After sleepwalking through the Houston series and the first four games of the Denver series, Lamar finally came to life the last two games, and he’ll need to keep that rolling. On defense he’ll be asked to help double down on Dwight, but it’ll be more important for him to get back and keep a long arm in the face of Rashard and Hedo. On offense, Odom is stronger than either and he’s capable of beating them off the dribble. He’ll need to put pressure on the Magic wings, and draw fouls, by being aggressive and out-muscling them in the paint.

Who else in Purple and Gold needs to perform, after the jump…

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By: Zachariah Blott

I wrote a column about 3 weeks ago detailing my reasons why only Cleveland or Denver had a chance of winning the NBA Championship this year. Obviously, I was wrong. Unlike a majority of our politicians, however, I will freely point out when my predictions turn out to be turds and even use the evidence that made me look stupid to (hopefully) formulate better predictions in the future.

Here are a few patterns that emerged during the Conference Finals to also keep in mind during these NBA Finals between the Lakers and Magic.

1) Pau Gasol has entered the strata of Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, and Dirk Nowitzki (apologies to the injured Kevin Garnett); these are big men who can singlehandedly neutralize an opponent’s entire front line on a consistent basis. The Nuggets came into the series with a dominant group of forwards and centers who controlled the paint for most of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. If it wasn’t Carmelo scoring or Nene doing a little of everything, then it was Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen playing stellar defense and getting into the heads of the other team.

Gasol took on this meat grinder of a frontline just about by himself. Andrew Bynum is obviously nowhere near 100% and Lamar Odom had two games worth mentioning.

What did Gasol do in this situation?

He posted a double-double in all six games with averages of 18 points and 12 rebounds. He blocked 14 shots in the series, only one less than Andersen, who was second in the league with 2.5 during the regular season. Gasol also hit 63% of his shots against this physically punishing group of bigs. My hat is off to #16; I didn’t anticipate this type of performance against Denver in the paint. His statistical output will likely take a hit when playing against Howard, but his play will be instrumental.

2) Kobe Bryant made some wise real-estate purchases recently, namely in the Free Throw Line parts of town. Against a solid defensive Denver team, Bryant shot about as well as he did during the season (48% vs. 47% in the season), hit triples at about the same rate (34% vs. 35% in the season), but was able to take almost twice as many free throws each contest.

During the regular season, Bryant attempted 6.9 foul shots per contest, but he got to the line 72 times against the Nuggets (12.0 per), converting a phenomenal 67 of them (93%). If Kobe can live at the line against a defense like Denver, than maybe he can have similar luck against Orlando.

Two more Conference Finals trends to remember after the break…

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