Empty the Bench

By: Zachariah Blott

I wrote a column about 3 weeks ago detailing my reasons why only Cleveland or Denver had a chance of winning the NBA Championship this year. Obviously, I was wrong. Unlike a majority of our politicians, however, I will freely point out when my predictions turn out to be turds and even use the evidence that made me look stupid to (hopefully) formulate better predictions in the future.

Here are a few patterns that emerged during the Conference Finals to also keep in mind during these NBA Finals between the Lakers and Magic.

1) Pau Gasol has entered the strata of Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, and Dirk Nowitzki (apologies to the injured Kevin Garnett); these are big men who can singlehandedly neutralize an opponent’s entire front line on a consistent basis. The Nuggets came into the series with a dominant group of forwards and centers who controlled the paint for most of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. If it wasn’t Carmelo scoring or Nene doing a little of everything, then it was Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen playing stellar defense and getting into the heads of the other team.

Gasol took on this meat grinder of a frontline just about by himself. Andrew Bynum is obviously nowhere near 100% and Lamar Odom had two games worth mentioning.

What did Gasol do in this situation?

He posted a double-double in all six games with averages of 18 points and 12 rebounds. He blocked 14 shots in the series, only one less than Andersen, who was second in the league with 2.5 during the regular season. Gasol also hit 63% of his shots against this physically punishing group of bigs. My hat is off to #16; I didn’t anticipate this type of performance against Denver in the paint. His statistical output will likely take a hit when playing against Howard, but his play will be instrumental.

2) Kobe Bryant made some wise real-estate purchases recently, namely in the Free Throw Line parts of town. Against a solid defensive Denver team, Bryant shot about as well as he did during the season (48% vs. 47% in the season), hit triples at about the same rate (34% vs. 35% in the season), but was able to take almost twice as many free throws each contest.

During the regular season, Bryant attempted 6.9 foul shots per contest, but he got to the line 72 times against the Nuggets (12.0 per), converting a phenomenal 67 of them (93%). If Kobe can live at the line against a defense like Denver, than maybe he can have similar luck against Orlando.

Two more Conference Finals trends to remember after the break…

3) Orlando will hit their triples against small backcourts. As I pointed out in a previous post, the Magic’s top three deep threats are huge: Rashard Lewis (6-10), Hedo Turkoglu (6-10), and Mickael Pietrus (6-6). Against Philly and Boston, who each have a few 6-5 to 6-8 perimeter defenders, Orlando was spotty from behind the arc – some good games, some bad.

Against Cleveland’s Smurfy backcourt and Wally Szczerbiak (who plays defense about as well as you’d expect from a player with lateral quickness issues), the Magic shot over 35% in five of their six games, including over 40% in four. LeBron’s much improved D could only cover so many shooters. Bryant (6-6) and Trevor Ariza (6-8) better be up to the task, or it could be raining all over Disneyland and Disney World.

4) Orlando’s defense goes against conventional wisdom that states you stop a team by stopping its star. Instead, the Magic watched LeBron light up the scoreboard to the tune of 49, 35, 41, 44, 37, and 25 points, respectively. For every other Cavalier, though, it was lights out. Mo Williams and Delonte West were simply pedestrian shooters for most of the series with their defenders sticking around and not leaving to double-team James. Look for Orlando to employ a similar strategy versus Los Angeles’ Bryant, with the goal of containing Gasol and Odom and not letting them explode at any point in the series.

Zachariah Blott is an English teacher in Portland, not an Amish Charles Dickens character.

Related Reading:
- Why the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers are the Only Real Title Contenders
- An Official Apology to the Orlando Magic
- Welcome to the Conference Finals, Lamar
- Still Think Rashard Lewis is Overpaid?

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