Empty the Bench

So far this year’s NBA Playoffs have been more about looking forward than in any recent seasons. The brackets have been littered with obvious pretenders like Utah, New Orleans, Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta. With the exception of the unexpectedly brilliant Boston-Chicago series, the matchups have been mostly snoozers. That doesn’t mean I’m not watching, or enjoying, just that I’ve been itching for the drama of Conference Finals and NBA Finals to kick off. I’ve been looking ahead.

And when it comes to the Cleveland Cavaliers and LeBron James, I’m really looking ahead. I fully expect to see them in the NBA Finals. I’m looking even further.

Cleveland predictably held serve on Tuesday night, easily dispatching their second-round foe Atlanta in Game One. Sure, they had to knock some rust from around the tires after a lengthy layoff. They came out sluggish and it took 22 first-half points from James to lead them to a modest 5-point halftime lead. But after 12 more from King James in the third the Cavs were coasting again. The Godfather theme was playing after deadly Mo Williams treys, Delonte West was dominating with quiet economy at both ends, the super subs were out-hustling the Hawks and Bron was cheerleading from the sidelines with a 21-points edge early in the fourth quarter. It ended in a 27-point route, and the game was never really in doubt. Neither is the series. As we watch the matchup’s four or five games it’s impossible not to look past it.

Of course the Cavs can’t afford themselves that luxury – in the NBA any team can win on any given night. Atlanta proved that against Boston just last year in the first round. But as fans, we can. Cleveland will advance. And barring some kind of epic collapse by the Cavs, a Willis Reed-esque return from Kevin Garnett or Dwight Howard flashing a birth certificate from Mount Olympus (actually, that may not shock me too much) LeBron James will lead his obviously superior team through the Eastern Conference playoffs to the NBA Finals.

And while nothing is a given, looking even further ahead it would be hard to argue that anybody but the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorite to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy this season. The Lakers are a very close second and it should be one hell of a matchup if it comes to fruition, but given the Lake Show’s lack of killer instinct and the fact that LA’s soft squad will be beaten into the ground in consecutive series by Houston and Denver en route significantly diminishes their chances.

I shouldn’t be, but yeah, I’m looking ahead. Way ahead. What happens to James and Cleveland if he wins both the MVP award and a NBA title this season? What does that do to LeBron’s chances of staying in Cleveland for the long run?

Is a NBA title LeBron’s ultimate “Get Out of Jail Free” card? After the jump…

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By Darren Yuvan

Heart. It’s what separates the champions from the also-rans. The contenders from the pretenders, as they say. It can even be what separates the mediocre from the bottom feeders.

But how do you quantify heart? It doesn’t show up in box scores or in stat lines, and you never see Sportscenter Plays of The Day based solely around it. But ask any serious sports fan to identify a performance with heart, and be the performance real or fictional, they can surely point it out to you.

Heart is what pushed Ali over the top against Foreman. It’s what gave Kellen Winslow the strength to block that kick against Miami in 1982 after suffering a pinched nerve, stitches and dehydration and after already catching 13 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown. Heart is what drove Michael Jordan to 38 points in the legendary “Flu Game” in 1997. It’s what brought Rocky Balboa back onto his feet what seemed like 167 times in 6 movies. And it’s what fueled Lane Meyer’s highly improbable victory over Roy Stalin in their race down the treacherous K12 (he’s skiing on one ski!).

Heart is also what propped up the Houston Rockets to an unlikely Game 1 upset of the Western Conference favorite Los Angeles Lakers on the Lake Show’s home floor. And if the Lakers don’t quickly snap out of their obvious opening-game malaise, it could also be what sends the West’s number one seed home a lot sooner than what anyone had anticipated.

Shane Battier and Kobe Bryant photo credit: Icon SMI

There was Shane Battier, taking a an errant Sasha Vujacic elbow that split his face wide open like Marvin Hagler against Tommy Hearns. Then getting stitched up and quickly returning with that ever-present hand in Kobe’s face, helping to hold the Lakers’ star to 14–31 shooting, including 1–7 from downtown.

There was Yao Ming, putting a skip into the heart of Rockets fans league-wide late in the 4th quarter, laying on the court in a position we’ve seen way too much of in recent seasons – grasping his knee and writhing around in obvious pain – only to return from the tunnel minutes later against the wishes of Rockets trainer Keith Jones, hobbling to the court in a scene reminiscent of the Knicks’ Willis Reed in 1970. Yao promptly scored 8 huge points in the game’s closing three minutes to snuff out any Laker hopes of a rally, finishing with 28 points and 10 boards.

There was Ron Artest, sporting a freshly-shaved mohawk in a show of solidarity with Rockets guard Von Wafer, also adding his own little twist by carving the Rockets logo into the side of his head. The Rockets’ mercurial forward seems to have finally found a home and happiness in Houston, as he added 21 big points, scoring from the outside and off of drives, and also contributed his trademark bulldog defense.

There was Aaron Brooks, responding to Rick Adelman’s challenge after a lackluster first half, darting and weaving through the Lakers defense, finishing with 18 points, most of which came after halftime.

And of course, there was Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry and Carl Landry, grabbing offensive boards, diving for loose balls, drawing charges and playing their customary superb team and individual defense.

Why Game One wasn’t a fluke, after the jump…

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By Zachariah Blott

Denver Nuggets (1-0) over Dallas Mavericks

1. Denver is loaded in the frontcourt with physical players who can bully any opponent. If it’s not Kenyon Martin literally knocking Dirk Nowitzki off rhythm, it’s Chris Andersen coming off the bench to block 6 shots and lead the team with a +28 point differential. Mavericks’ fans have taken to calling them the Thuggets.

2. Chauncey Billups can transform any rag-tag bunch of questionable characters (Andersen, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony) into hard-working teammates who don’t point fingers. It can’t last forever, but it will continue to work this year.

3. Jason Kidd’s 8.7-2.3 A-TO rate for the year is far better than any of his teammates in Dallas and even he was pestered into 8 turnovers in Game One. Denver is the most aggressive team still playing, and they will only continue to create steal opportunities (15 in Game One).

Where this is headed: Dallas has a lot of nice pieces, but Denver will continue to get the steals and the blocks (11 in Game One). Also, Mark Cuban will have to sell his soul to the devil for his team to keep outrebounding Denver by 7. Denver in 5.

Houston Rockets (1-0) over Los Angeles Lakers

1. The Lakers have one proven perimeter scorer in Kobe Bryant. The Rockets have two of the best perimeter defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, and they combine for only 4.2 fouls a game. Kobe may continue to score 32 points each game, but if he continues taking 31 shots and only 5 free throws, he can’t hurt Houston too badly.

2. Refs love Yao Ming. Everyone who guarded him was predictably in foul trouble (Pau Gasol had 4, Lamar Odom had 5, Andrew Bynum had 3 in 15 minutes). Trust me LA fans, it won’t get any better in Houston. Considering these three players are the next three scoring options after Bryant, things are not looking up for the Lakers.

3. Houston has three guards who are uber-quick to the hole and very tough to keep up with: Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, and Von Wafer. All three are unselfish and able to pick up some easy assists when the defense shifts. Jordan Farmar is the only Laker fast enough to guard any of this trio, and he is an offensive liability.

Where this is headed: Houston is full of smart players, who all play defense, who all hustle, who all do the little things that are a coach’s dream. Bryant should put together at least one huge game, but his big men will continue to be in foul trouble for the rest of the series. Houston in 6.

Kobe Bryant photo credit: Icon SMI

Orlando Magic (1-0) over Boston Celtics

1. Kevin Garnett is injured. Most ABRmetrics sites that calculate adjusted +/- ratings have Garnett as the top guy by a mile over almost any time period this decade. Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine, who look like sumo wrestlers compared to Garnett, have their moments, but they cannot fill the tremendous role Garnett has on this team.

2. Dwight Howard is ridiculous. Seriously, how is anyone supposed to stop this guy? This won’t be the last time this post-season he has 20+ rebounds and multiple blocks in a game. His tremendous defense will keep Boston’s shooting percentage low the whole series; the Celtics shot a measly .385 (30 for 78) in the first game because Rajon Rondo and company were rightfully afraid to take it inside.

3. Did I mention Kevin Garnett is amazing and not playing? Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are great complementary players, but neither can do for a team’s psyche, or defense, what Garnett can. Allen will get his shots and Pierce will have solid games, but Starbury and House can’t even keep J.J. Redick off the free throw line (4 for 4).

Where this is headed: Ray Allen will shoot better (1 for 7 from deep), Davis and Kendrick Perkins will continue to rebound (combined 21), and Scalabrine will continue to do a little of everything (2 trifectas, 4 boards, 1 steal, game-high +22). However, Orlando’s 3-point shooting will improve (9 for 27, Rashard Lewis was only 1 for 5). Orlando in 6 or 7.

Zachariah Blott is an English teacher in Portland, not an Amish Charles Dickens character.

It’s not often a seven-game NBA playoff series can be aptly described as “boring,” but that’s exactly what the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat accomplished in taking turns blowing each other out before the Hawks finally, thankfully, found themselves as the last men standing and stumbled into the second round.

They won’t last long against a well-rested, confident Cleveland Cavaliers waiting for them Tuesday night.

The average margin of victory in the Hawks-Heat series was nearly 20 points, which says… well, I’m not sure what that says other than that both teams were prone to not just having bad but absolutely terrible nights and were incapable of stringing together steady, consistent, playoff-level performances against a middling opponent.

Coming in we knew the Heat were a one-trick pony and that if the Hawks could successfully tame Dwyane Wade, they would advance. That it would take absolutely ridiculous basketball every night from Wade to keep his largely undistinguished supporting cast in it, and that the Hawks were deeper, more playoff-battle tested, and hungrier after pushing the champion Boston Celtics to the limit last season.

Well, the Heat got sometimes-great, but mostly just good basketball from Wade, and the Hawks did advance. Barely. That’s not a good sign as they head into Round 2 against the NBA’s best team led by the NBA’s best player. (LeBron James was deservedly named as this year’s MVP.) The Cavaliers were loose, defiant, and dominant against the withering Detroit Pistons in their first-round sweep that wrapped over a week ago, and given that the Hawks’ long slog past the Heat will have ended just 48 hours previously, the odds of a runaway Cavaliers’ blowout in Game 1 are high.

Currently sporting a 41-2 home record this season (including the playoffs), it’s likely they’ll head back to Atlanta for Game 3 riding a comfortable 2-0 advantage, putting a ton of pressure on the Hawks to win that game and avoid a possible sweep or, at a minimum, almost-definite series defeat. They shocked the NBA last season by coming up big in a similarly compromising situation against the heavily favored Boston Celtics, but that was then, this is now.

As hungry as those Celtics were last season–and yes, they were starving–these Cavaliers are playing scary basketball right now. I don’t think the Hawks are up to the challenge, especially after their lackluster effort against the Heat; hell, I don’t think the winner of the Magic-Celtics series will be up to it either, but that’s a discussion for another day.

For now it’s Cavaliers-Hawks, though by this time next week there’s a damn good chance we’ll already be looking ahead to the Eastern Conference Finals–it’s only a question of how long it’ll take for the Hawks to succumb to the inevitable. An 8-0 start to the postseason for Cleveland? It’s very possible.