Empty The Bench
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Why the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers are the Only Real Title Contenders

May 11, 2009

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Zachariah Blott

With all due respect to the other six squads still playing, there are only two teams that have a chance of raising the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy this year: the Cavaliers and the Nuggets. I’m not saying these two will definitely face off in June, but they’re the only two who have shown the consistency and hunger to be considered championship material. Let’s take a quick look at each series and why I’m jumping to this conclusion two rounds ahead of time.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks (Cleveland leads 3-0)

Remember how all those Bulls in the 90’s not named Jordan had one or two good skills that looked amazing when MJ was distracting the whole other team? Well, the Cavaliers are going through that right now. Players who were so-so outside shooters on other squads are now great on Cleveland (namely Mo Williams and Delonte West). Big men who are over-the-hill but still hustle are teaming up with Anderson Varejao to control the paint (Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas).

Everyone is busting their tails and putting together nice stretches of plays because the opponents are little more than front-row audience members to the LeBron James Show. LBJ has officially entered the Garnett stratosphere of superstars whose teammates absolutely love to follow and lay it out for. These types of players (e.g. Bird, Magic, Russell) do everything a team needs statistically and are also the on-court cheerleaders who won’t point fingers or let anyone hang his head after a bum play. This breed of player is far more rare than fans think.

Atlanta is the other team in this series.

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic (tied 2-2)

Orlando is banking on two things in order to keep advancing: Dwight Howard putting up 15-and-15 each game and for the team to hit tons of 3’s, which has been the formula for success they’ve clung to all season long. Howard is getting his against the overmatched Boston frontcourt, but injured guards Jameer Nelson and Courtney Lee have been replaced by an inconsistent point guard who can’t shoot (Rafer Alston, 24% FG this series, 1-for-12 from deep) and J.J. Reddick, whose name alone is an NBA punchline.

With 6-10 forwards Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu hanging out on the perimeter jacking treys (combined 31 attempts from deep), Boston is actually outrebounding Howard’s Magic 161-148. Orlando is far too inconsistent at everything to have a chance at the title.

The Celtics are playing without their heart and soul, Kevin Garnett, since he was lost for good in late-March (he hasn’t been a factor since mid-February) with knee trouble. Without him, the C’s barely scraped by a 41-41 Bulls squad in seven games and are a Big Baby buzzer-beater away from not even getting this much of a mention.

Zachariah Blott weighs in on Denver-Dallas and Houston-Los Angeles after the break…


Forward Carmelo Anthony of the Denver Nuggets

Carmelo Anthony Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets (Denver leads 3-0)

The Nuggets have been solid at everything in the playoffs, chiefly because Chauncey Billups has recaptured his mojo from his run with the Pistons. In the postseason, Billups is hitting an absurd 28 of 49 trifectas (57%) and has a 54-13 assist-turnover rate.

Denver’s front line is by far the best in the game right now, with Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, and Carmelo Anthony all taking turns knocking the crap out of opponents, blocking shots, outhustling and outleaping the other team for rebounds, and soaring for highlight-reel dunks. This whole team’s swagger reminds me of UNLV’s 1991 squad. By the way, the Nuggets’ lone loss thus far in these playoffs was a 2-pointer in New Orleans.

The best argument Dallas has for why this series could be closer? The refs should have called MORE fouls against them in Game Three. As always, Dirk Nowitzki has gotten real sweaty and produced big (32 ppg, 12 rpg, 29 of 33 free throws).

Houston Rockets vs. L.A. Lakers (tied 2-2)

The well-rested Lakers were supposed to easily take care of a squad missing Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Well, it turns out the Rockets can play some defense (L.A. averaged 107 ppg in the regular season, but only 99.5 in this series), and Los Angeles can get stomped by a team with a 6-foot-6 center and none of its All-Stars. This is Kobe’s time to shine, but his 46 FG% is just marginally better than his team’s 45%, and he’s only attempted 20 free throws. Teammates who are shooting well, like Pau Gasol and Shannon Brown (combined 42 for 73, 57% FG), need to see more of the ball. Andrew Bynum has become Kwame Brown. [Ed Note: Ouch...]

Houston is looking decent against the West’s best regular-season team, but you can only lose so many important pieces and still keep a run going. They’re getting valuable contributions from a lineup full of underrated guys, but their issues with turnovers are too much for this suddenly short squad to overcome for a chance at the title; they have 62 of them to LA’s 41, and even in the Game Four blowout only had one less than the Lakers (10 to 11).

Zachariah Blott is an English teacher in Portland, not an Amish Charles Dickens character.

Related Reading:
- Derek Fisher Proves Mettle, Will Be Missed
- Houston Shows Some Coronary Fortitude
- Only a Matter of Time for Cleveland Cavaliers
- Memo to Western Conference: Chauncey Billups is a Very Dangerous Man

4 Comments »Posted by ETB Contributor on May. 11, 2009 at 1:33 am in NBA

4 Responses

Andrew Bynum = Kwame Brown. No doubt. Feel’s like he’s racking up more errors than minutes.

Absolutely right, the Nuggets have the hunger and consistency to make the finals. I do think it will be a tall order to beat the Lakers, who are terribly struggling to put together a consistent stretch this postseason. Either way, I think either of those teams will give Cleveland a run for their money in the finals. I’m not anti-Lebron, it’s just that if Varejao ever wins a title, I’m throwing myself in front of a train.

Posted by: r.i.p_petrovic on May 11th, 2009 at 2:52 am

How does that prediction/assesment fit in with the quality of the teams that Denver and Cleveland are playing? Also how do last year’s celtics fit in that model? Because they didn’t look like the best team, but they raised banner 17 last year. They grew, learned and then won.

Matt

Posted by: Matt on May 11th, 2009 at 8:30 am

Delonte was 3rd string point guard for the Sonics last season, so of course his production will improve. He’s getting a chance to not only play but play his natural position again.

Mo’s production has gone up only slightly over last season, but his overall shooting percentage is down and his assists are down because of LeBron. Last season with Milwaukee, he was the best 2pt shooter in the NBA. This year, that FG% is down because he is attempting so many 3’s per game. (And you have a point, he’s making 43% of them.)

Most of West and Williams’ points this year have come off the dribble. They are creating their own shots, and that’s the thing that makes the more valuable to the Cavs, not just the fact that they are connecting when LeBron gets them the ball.

Posted by: Ryan on May 11th, 2009 at 10:31 am

Ryan, there is absolutely no way that most of Mo and Delonte’s points have come off the dribble. The vast majority have come from LeBron hitting them in set positions to shoot. Absolutely, positively, no way.

I think you do have to consider who these guys are playing, like Matt pointed out. At least, you have to think the Lakers are legit title contenders. There only issue is they don’t give a sh*t for parts of the games, or whole games at a time, so they’re bound to lose one or two games a series. Its just a matter of if it will doom them vs. the Nugs or Cavs.

Maybe it will, but it wouldn’t shock me if they win it all despite their ways.

Posted by: Red on May 13th, 2009 at 1:09 am

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