Empty The Bench
- The Season's Over -

Why No One Should Be Surprised Right Now

May 5, 2009

Dwight Howard, taking it in stride

Dwight Howard Photo Credit: Icon SMI

By Zachariah Blott

Denver Nuggets (1-0) over Dallas Mavericks

1. Denver is loaded in the frontcourt with physical players who can bully any opponent. If it’s not Kenyon Martin literally knocking Dirk Nowitzki off rhythm, it’s Chris Andersen coming off the bench to block 6 shots and lead the team with a +28 point differential. Mavericks’ fans have taken to calling them the Thuggets.

2. Chauncey Billups can transform any rag-tag bunch of questionable characters (Andersen, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony) into hard-working teammates who don’t point fingers. It can’t last forever, but it will continue to work this year.

3. Jason Kidd’s 8.7-2.3 A-TO rate for the year is far better than any of his teammates in Dallas and even he was pestered into 8 turnovers in Game One. Denver is the most aggressive team still playing, and they will only continue to create steal opportunities (15 in Game One).

Where this is headed: Dallas has a lot of nice pieces, but Denver will continue to get the steals and the blocks (11 in Game One). Also, Mark Cuban will have to sell his soul to the devil for his team to keep outrebounding Denver by 7. Denver in 5.

Houston Rockets (1-0) over Los Angeles Lakers

Yeah, Houston can play with you1. The Lakers have one proven perimeter scorer in Kobe Bryant. The Rockets have two of the best perimeter defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, and they combine for only 4.2 fouls a game. Kobe may continue to score 32 points each game, but if he continues taking 31 shots and only 5 free throws, he can’t hurt Houston too badly.

2. Refs love Yao Ming. Everyone who guarded him was predictably in foul trouble (Pau Gasol had 4, Lamar Odom had 5, Andrew Bynum had 3 in 15 minutes). Trust me LA fans, it won’t get any better in Houston. Considering these three players are the next three scoring options after Bryant, things are not looking up for the Lakers.

3. Houston has three guards who are uber-quick to the hole and very tough to keep up with: Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, and Von Wafer. All three are unselfish and able to pick up some easy assists when the defense shifts. Jordan Farmar is the only Laker fast enough to guard any of this trio, and he is an offensive liability.

Where this is headed: Houston is full of smart players, who all play defense, who all hustle, who all do the little things that are a coach’s dream. Bryant should put together at least one huge game, but his big men will continue to be in foul trouble for the rest of the series. Houston in 6.

Kobe Bryant photo credit: Icon SMI

Orlando Magic (1-0) over Boston Celtics

1. Kevin Garnett is injured. Most ABRmetrics sites that calculate adjusted +/- ratings have Garnett as the top guy by a mile over almost any time period this decade. Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine, who look like sumo wrestlers compared to Garnett, have their moments, but they cannot fill the tremendous role Garnett has on this team.

2. Dwight Howard is ridiculous. Seriously, how is anyone supposed to stop this guy? This won’t be the last time this post-season he has 20+ rebounds and multiple blocks in a game. His tremendous defense will keep Boston’s shooting percentage low the whole series; the Celtics shot a measly .385 (30 for 78) in the first game because Rajon Rondo and company were rightfully afraid to take it inside.

3. Did I mention Kevin Garnett is amazing and not playing? Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are great complementary players, but neither can do for a team’s psyche, or defense, what Garnett can. Allen will get his shots and Pierce will have solid games, but Starbury and House can’t even keep J.J. Redick off the free throw line (4 for 4).

Where this is headed: Ray Allen will shoot better (1 for 7 from deep), Davis and Kendrick Perkins will continue to rebound (combined 21), and Scalabrine will continue to do a little of everything (2 trifectas, 4 boards, 1 steal, game-high +22). However, Orlando’s 3-point shooting will improve (9 for 27, Rashard Lewis was only 1 for 5). Orlando in 6 or 7.

Zachariah Blott is an English teacher in Portland, not an Amish Charles Dickens character.

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5 Comments »Posted by ETB Contributor on May. 5, 2009 at 1:21 pm in NBA

5 Responses

If you think the refs love Yao Ming, you haven’t been watching enough Rockets games.

The guy gets mauled on a continual basis. For every foul they do call, there are six to eight that they have missed.

And Yao has the battle scars up and down his arms to prove it.

Posted by: spygrl on May 5th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

dude – don’t let one game fool you. the lakers played like absolute shit last night. will the series go six? you’re right. but it will be the lakers who win.

Posted by: Dub City on May 5th, 2009 at 4:24 pm

Card-carrying Blazer fan/Laker-hater wishful thinking. IF the Lakers lose Game 2, they will lose series, Yes. If the Lakers win Game 2, they win series.
Horrible completely out of sync 1st game, horrible 3 point shooting, horrible FT shooting, horrible ref calls (One free throw for Kobe until basically game over. Lamar Odom NOT out of bounds on 4th Q break away dunk!) So the Lakers play about as bad as they can play, and still had excellent chance to pull out a win until last 2 minutes. If they play anything like they did late in regular season, then clearly the Lakers are the better team and will win.

Posted by: gurf morlix on May 5th, 2009 at 8:42 pm

1) Houston actually has more areas to improve in throughout the series than the Lakers. LA had more rebounds (39-35), more offensive rebounds (12-6), more assists (18-16), less turnovers (13-16), and more blocked shots (4-3). One can easily see Houston leading any number of games in any of these categories, especially after they outrebounded the top rebounding team in the league 240-218 in the first series.

2) The Lakers shot .443 (39 for 88), which is not abnormally low for what you’d expect from a team that completed .474 during the season to shoot against a defensive-minded squad that forced some desperation shots in the last 2 minutes.

3) LA’s 2 for 18 from deep should improve, but keep in mind they were in the bottom half of the league with a .361 percentage during the first 82, and now they need to do it against Artest, Battier, and a bevy of quick, annoying guards.

4) In the same vein, Houston should also improve from beyond the 3-point mark. They were a top-10 team from that distance during the regular season (.375), but only hit 5 for 18 (.278) in Game One.

I’m not saying LA can’t do it, but I put their odds around 50-50 before this game, and losing home court right away tilts it (for me) toward Houston. Yao will continue to keep LA’s frontcourt in foul trouble, so I’m not sure where consistent scoring will come from outside of Kobe.

As for my Portland allegiance: I’ve lived here for 1.5 years after 30+ on the East Coast. I’m hardly a card-carrying Blazer fan.

Posted by: Zachariah Blott on May 6th, 2009 at 2:18 am

Seems like Mr Blott is an avid fan of statistics. Don’t let statistics determine the potential outcome of any playoff series. If this were the case, well then let’s all just play NBA Live and let the simulations determine the NBA champions.

There is a reason this is a 7-game series – to determine who the better team is. Rockets won game 1 – give them credit and there should be no excuses for the Lakers, fans included. Lakers need to make adjustments if they want to pull through. Yes I am a Laker fan but I am a basketball fan as well. So instead of arguing about FT% and odds, why not just enjoy each game like everyone else?

Posted by: PurpleandGold on May 6th, 2009 at 8:33 am

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