Ten of the Most Pleasant Fantasy Hoops Surprises So Far This Season

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Ten of the Most Pleasant Fantasy Hoops Surprises So Far This Season

January 8, 2009

Doc Rivers, pleased with Rajon Rondo's fantasy game

Rajon Rondo Photo Credit: Icon SMI

On the heels of naming 10 of the most pounding fantasy hoops headaches thus far in the 2008-09 season, we now cast a light on 10 players who’ve exceeded low draft-day expectations and established much greater fantasy relevance. All current rankings are based on ETB’s league scoring format (which is a flawless and fair one, to be sure); that also determines the order in which the following players are listed.

Nene Hilario, Denver Nuggets

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: 103 (Early 9th Round)
Current Yahoo! Rank: 13th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: High efficiency and consistent production have been the hallmarks of Nene’s breakout fantasy season, one which few obviously saw coming. It’s never been a lack of talent or passion for the game that’s held him back, but rather a series of unfortunate injuries which, in fantasy hoops, most owners have little to no patience for. So far so good on that front, however, and the addition of true PG Chauncey Billups has helped his cause too. Nene has played in all but one of the Nuggets’ first 37 games, averaging career-bests of 14.8 points, 7.8 boards, 62% FG, 74% FT, and 1.5 blocks; his 1.3 steals are the most since ’03. We sort of saw this coming with Camby out of the mix, but not to this degree.

Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: 92.5 (Early 8th Round)
Current Yahoo! Rank: 37th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: There’s nothing not to like about what Rondo has done so far both for the Celtics and his fantasy owners. He’s posted incremental to solid increases in every category compared to last season, the most valuable being the 7.5 assists (up from 5.1) and 2.2 steals (up from 1.7); his 51% FG is rather helpful as well. I was fortunate enough to snag Rondo in the middle of the 10th round, after guys like Gilbert Arenas (anybody still counting on much from him this year? Maybe ever?), Kevin Love, and Francisco Garcia had recently come off the board. I’d be thrilled to see him take (and make) more than 3.4 free throws per and up his points from 10.9 to, say, 14, but that’d just be greedy.

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: 135.6 (Late 11th Round)
Current Yahoo! Rank: 38th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: The former second-round pick came into his third NBA season with comparable fantasy value to that of the Detroit Pistons’ Jason Maxiell. Like Maxiell behind Wallace and McDyess, Millsap was mostly a draft-day afterthought–think UTIL depth–because he looked to again be in line for only 20 minutes or so/per playing behind All-Stars Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. Once Boozer went down, however, Millsap stepped up in a huge way and has easily proven to be the biggest bargain of the 2008-09 fantasy season. He currently has a streak of 19 straight double-doubles going, as a starter averaging 18.5 points, 11.7 boards, 57% FG, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks. SICK. In the real world, don’t be surprised if Utah inks the unrestricted free-agent Millsap to a long-term contract extension this summer, and lets Boozer walk.

Seven more fantasy hoops surprises after the jump…

Delonte West, Cleveland Cavaliers

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: Free Agent
Current Yahoo! Rank: 40th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: Though all the offseason buzz centered around the addition of Mo Williams to the Cavaliers’ backcourt, we maintained that West would still have plenty of fantasy value in his first full campaign in Cleveland. He hasn’t disappointed and is arguably enjoying the finest overall season of his five-year career. Though there’ve been sporadic bouts of inconsistency, West’s per-game averages of 12.3 points, 1.7 triples, and 1.5 steals are personal bests, and the fact that he’s kept his turnovers to just over 1 per despite logging just under 34 minutes is a bonus. Despite low fantasy expectations, it’s hard to believe West went undrafted in most leagues.

Chris Duhon, New York Knicks

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: 130.6 (Early 11th Round)
Current Yahoo! Rank: 44th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: A lot of people were high on the former Chicago Bull’s fantasy potential this season, given his near-guaranteed starter minutes in a high-octane Mike d’Antoni offense, but regardless of the situation I just didn’t think Duhon, who’d never averaged more than 8.7 points and 5 assists per in a single season, was up to it. So far, I’ve been wrong. Playing damn near 40 minutes a night, the fifth-year pro is having a fine fantasy campaign, averaging 12 points, 8.3 assists, 3.9 boards, 1.6 triples, and 1.2 steals. After posting just 10+ assists seven times in his first four seasons, he’s already done it 10 times this season, including 22 on November 29 against the Warriors.

Trevor Ariza, Los Angeles Lakers

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: 128.5 (Early 11th Round)
Current Yahoo! Rank: 64th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: We’ve long been fans of the versatile swingman Ariza here at ETB, but injuries and a lack of consistent playing time seemed to always hold him back during mostly average stints with the Knicks and Magic his first four pro seasons. Still just 23 years old, however, Ariza is on pace to play in the most games since his rookie season, and better yet for his fantasy owners he’s finally making good on all that talent. In about 25 minutes per through 34 games, Ariza is giving the Lakers 9.2 points, 5.3 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.6 three-pointers on average. That’s not going to win your fantasy league, but those modest, consistent contributions across the board are more valuable than you might think.

Eric Gordon Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: Free Agent
Current Yahoo! Rank: 82nd Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: It’s mostly because whenever somebody slips on a Clippers jersey, everything they touch usually turns to coal. Drafted 7th overall by the foundering Clipper Ship, this kid turned 20 on Christmas Day and is looking more and more like the real deal. After riding the bench and making mostly ineffectual contributions in the season’s early goings, Gordon arrived on the fantasy scene with a bang back on November 24 and 26, when over the course of two games he averaged 24.5 points on 53.5% FG, 4 three-pointers, 3.5 assists, 4 steals, 3 boards, and 1.5 blocks. Wow. He came back down to earth for a bit, but has been going absolutely apeshit the past few weeks, including two back-to-back 30-point games and a stretch at the free-throw line that’s now at 36-38. The more Baron Davis sits, the more his fantasy value will rise.

Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: Free Agent
Current Yahoo! Rank: 114th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: I “reached” for Stuckey on draft day in ETB’s league, snagging him in the middle of the 13th round sandwiched between Ryan Gomes and Jameer Nelson. For awhile there it looked like we might have to wait another season until big minutes came his way, but with Billups in Denver and A.I. proving incapable of running the point full-time, the second-year guard has arrived. In 17 games as a starter, Stuckey has averaged 17.5 points on nearly 50% FG, along with 6.1 assists, 3.8 boards, and 1.6 steals. He’s in the starting lineup to stay, and we only expect him to further elevate his game and, of course, his fantasy value along with it.

Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: Free Agent
Current Yahoo! Rank: 143rd Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: Yet another young guard overlooked on draft day who is giving those owners wise enough to snatch him up on waivers a nice boost in points, assists, and steals. Like his fellow rookie Gordon, above, at 20 years young the cheetah-quick Westbrook is just getting warmed up having now permanently entrenched himself in the Thunder’s starting lineup. The low 34% field-goal percentage in November likely kept him on waivers longer than he should have been as he’s clearly become more comfortable shooting the ball. Over the past 18 games, Westbrook has shot just under 50% FG and is averaging 16.4 points, 6.9 assists, 4 boards, and 0.8 steals. We think he’ll cut down on the turnovers (3.15 per in the same stretch) and up his sub-80% FT over time, too. With a young, talented nucleus of Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Jeff Green, the future looks bright for the OKC Thunder.

Hakim Warrick, Memphis Grizzlies

Average Yahoo! Draft Position: Free Agent
Current Yahoo! Rank: 154th Overall
Why He’s Been Such a Surprise: Not much has changed in this former first-round pick’s game over the last three seasons, with per-game averages hovering around 11 points, 5 boards, 50% FG, and 1 assist. That’s certainly not spectacular, and there’s a good chance Warrick is still floating around on waivers in your 12-team-and-under league. Given the emergence of teammate Rudy Gay, the expected uptick in minutes for Darko Milicic, and the arrival of rookies O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur, and Marc Gasol, the fantasy prospects for Warrick seemed dim at best this season. And they were, for awhile, but due to an injury to Milicic and Gasol running into the rookie wall early, Warrick has become a decent depth pick-up. Over the last 19 games, he’s posted solid pers of 15.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 48% FG, and just under 1 steal and block. Again, those small contributions can be the difference between posting a 6-3 or 7-2 win in a head-to-head matchup, instead of a 5-4 or 4-5 loss.