Empty the Bench

Los Angeles Lakers: 57-25, 1st seed
San Antonio Spurs: 56-26, 3rd seed
Head-to-Head: They tied the season series 2-2

Prelude

Back in the early summer of 2007 not many people expected Kobe Bryant to still be a Laker in November, let alone to be leading them into battle in late May. Then again, this is a completely different team around him with returning Lakers hero Derek Fisher at the point and high-profile acquisition Pau Gasol manning the middle. Now they’ve earned the treat of playing the Spurs. After their annual tradition of flying under the radar all year, nobody is surprised to see San Antonio back in the Western Conference Finals. It seems like months ago that they were pushed into double overtime by the Phoenix Suns on the opening day of the 2008 playoffs, but since that second overtime period they’ve gone back to their winning ways and looked as methodical and deadly as ever.

There were a lot of unhappy NBA fans outside of Texas after the Spurs dispatched the Hornets on Monday, but none more displeased than Lakers fans. Instead of being the veteran squad facing a young and inexperienced New Orleans team Los Angles is now squaring off against a group of cagey vets with a lot more playoff success. LA is rebuilt and only has one key player over the age of 30 while the Spurs have remained the same with only one key player under the age of 30. Now the Lakers are the kids playing the old guard. And Instead of being heavy favorites, they’re facing the toughest out in the NBA playoffs.

Of course, we’ve seen plenty of Lakers-Spurs matchups in recent playoff history. They’ve met in the postseason five times in the last decade. Los Angeles has taken three of those series and each team has gone on to win two titles after besting the other. These have been two of the most successful franchises in the league during that stretch, combining for seven of the last nine NBA titles. That history isn’t very informative of what’s to come though – the only players still around from 1999 are Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher and Tim Duncan.

The other guys who have been here since then are Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich, two of the best coaches in NBA history with 13 rings from the bench between them and one Coach of the Year award each. We know both teams will be extremely well-prepared for this series and each coach will play the media like a maestro between contests.

After all the injuries and the big trade in LA, these teams as presently constituted only met once. The Lake show took that game on April 13th in the Staples Center 106-85, a win that has them enjoying home court in this series. In that game we saw the new and improved Kobe held to just 20 points, but also the revamped Lakers displaying their newfound balance with six players reaching double figures. That’s what will make this series so difficult for San Antonio: they can no longer just focus on taking Bryant out of the game and expect to win. He has a supporting cast he trusts now and doubling him every possession isn’t an option. That won’t stop the Spurs from throwing bodies and extremely physical defense at Kobe, but they know the NBA’s MVP gets as many star calls as anybody in the league, leading all players with 13.4 trips to the line a game in the postseason.

Rest assured, Kobe will get his. But will this newly constructed supporting cast step up to the challenge or will the Spurs superior defense, experience and savvy prevail?

ETB breaks down the Lakers-Spurs series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

Kobe Bryant is the headliner of any series he’s involved in, but the matchup at point guard will be just as important as his play. Instead of trotting out the intolerable Smush Parker this season LA has brought back the underrated vet Derek Fisher. Fish has been a key to their success in the playoffs and will continue to be here. He won’t put up gaudy numbers, but the value Fisher’s defense on Deron Williams in Games One, Five and Six last series cannot be underestimated. And of course, while he doesn’t hit a ton of shots, the ones Fisher does hit tend to count – Spurs fans may remember him from such NBA playoffs as 2001, 2002 and 2004.

Fish is getting long in tooth and playing on a tender hoof though, so the speed of Tony Parker represents his toughest task of the playoffs thus far. Mr. Longoria has been his usual solid self in the 2008 postseason, averaging 23.7 points and 6.3 dimes on over 50% FGs. If Fisher can’t knock that scoring average and field-goal efficiency down a notch it will spell trouble for LA, and if he can’t at least limit Parker’s signature penetration it will put too much pressure on the rest of the Lakers suspect defense. Without question, San Antonio has the shooters to make the Lakers pay.

While Parker’s contributions have been impressive so far, the performance of Kobe Bryant in these playoffs has been nothing short of spectacular. Sure, Utah and Denver don’t have the wing defenders San Antonio sports, but that doesn’t take anything away from the superhuman 33.3 points, 6.8 assists, 6.3 boards and 10.8 made free-throws Kobe has put up on 49.5% FGs and 80.6% FTs. Bryant is playing the best basketball of his career right now. He will see a cadre of defenders including Manu Ginobili, Michael Finley and Ime Udoka, but the infamous Bruce Bowen will draw those duties a majority of the time. Make no mistake, the pesky Bowen is still the premier perimeter defender in the NBA. In the four regular-season games that swarm frustrated Kobe into sub-par numbers across the board, including 4.3 TOs and just 5.0 free-throw attempts a game. He’s going to need to take better care of the ball, get to the line more and put more pressure on the Spurs for his team to advance.

San Antonio counters Kobe’s perimeter offense with their regular-season MVP Manu Ginobili. He’s an absolute assassin and will require Bryant’s rapt attention all series. Kobe, a member of the 2008 NBA All-Defensive Team, is up to the task but it’s going to take a lot out of him. Manu has an eerie knack for getting open threes while drawing fouls on both ends and will be in constant motion in an attempt to sap Kobe’s energy. Ginobili won’t match Bryant’s production, but if he can come within 8 points of Kobe that will keep the Spurs in every game. These are also two of the better closers in the league and they should be fun to watch in close games.

There are four X-factor guards coming off the bench. For LA it’s Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar. Neither is a great defender, but the Lakers need to get some offense out of these two to keep up. Farmar has been a major disappointment in the playoffs, but if he can come in and just not be terrible it would be a big boost. I’m probably a bigger Vijacic fan than most, but I think he can be a major factor. He gives better defensive effort than most token Euro shooters and when his threes are falling the Lakers offense becomes extremely difficult to slow down. For the Spurs Ime Udoka and Michael Finley are unsung heroes who are both capable of coming in and knocking down big, momentum-changing threes. Los Angeles has to make sure not to lose track of them when focusing on the bigger names.

Frontcourt

Andrew Bynum is set to undergo surgery and won’t be back as expected, and this is the series where his absence could finally catch up with LA. It’s remarkable they’ve been this good without their starting center, but San Antonio has great depth and length up front and could really dominate the glass and defensive end of the floor here. The size, physicality and experience of the Spurs inside will be a major factor against a decidedly softer Lakers frontline.

The marquee frontcourt matchup will obviously be Timmy Duncan versus Pau Gasol. On offense they’re both talented playmakers who can pass, rebound and hit the mid-range jumper. But while Duncan is a strong defender, Pau Gasol is not. In fact Los Angeles doesn’t really have anybody who can guard an elite PF/C on the roster, and after a sluggish start to the Hornets series Duncan has come on strong the last few games. Something in the neighborhood of 22 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists a game from Duncan should not surprise.

The weaker Gasol’s best defense will be a good offense, something he’s had in spades so far. In the postseason he’s posted an extremely impressive 20 points, 8.6 boards (3 offensive), 4.5 assists and 2.9 blocks on stellar 56.8% FGs. Those numbers won’t hold, but he needs to continue to keep the ball moving on offense, hold his own on the glass, draw some fouls on Duncan and convert on his open shots. That’s a lot to ask, but Los Angeles needs all of it.

The aforementioned Bruce Bowen will spend most of the series Guarding Kobe and camped out in the corner looking to vulture threes. San Antonio’s other frontcourt starter is Fabrico Oberto, who has played 20 quiet minutes a game in the playoffs, attempting just 2.6 shots and grabbing 4.7 boards a game. He will spend some time guarding Gasol and perhaps some time guarding Lamar Odom. Oberto doesn’t provide much in the way of numbers, but he is efficient and plays Spurs Brand Defense. Perhaps more important will be the play of the meddlesome Robert Horry and Kurt Thomas off the bench. They get down and dirty and play half the game in their opponent’s heads. Look for plenty of questionable tangles, hard fouls, big flops, psychological warfare and good shooting. Their play is representative of Spurs culture. Is it unsavory? Yep. Is it effective? Hell yes.

Vladimir Radmanovic is the Lakers starting small forward, but I still don’t think his play will have much of a bearing on this series. If he’s hitting his jumpers it’s a nice boost to LA, but if he’s not they’ll move on. It’s Lamar Odom who needs to come up with a massive series. His size and inside/outside game presents a matchup problem for the Spurs. Odom shot 52.4% FGs with 13.8 points, 10 boards and 2.8 assists against San Antonio in the regular season. I expect a slightly better performance here as he’ll be a primary playmaker for the Lakers while the Spurs force the ball out of Kobe’s hands.

Luke Walton and Ronny Turiaf have been a mixed bag so far and the Lakers will have to get some consistency out of these two. I don’t trust Walton to keep up his hot shooting in this series but he needs to at least continue facilitating his teammates in the triangle offense and keep the defense honest. Turiaf has hardly played so far, averaging just 9 minutes a game in the playoffs, but I think we’ll see more of him. His rebounding, shot-blocking, energy, fouls to give and defense will be important in combating San Antonio’s scrappy forwards off the bench.

Wild Card

And once again it’s those benches who could decide this series. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Bruce Bowen, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher are going to do what they do. They’re proven vets. What we don’t know is which set of role players will step up. Will Ronny Turiaf out-hustle Kurt Thomas and Robery Horry? Will Vujacic and Walton hit the key threes in transition, or will it be Ime Udoka and Michael Finley? Will Jordan Farmar be serviceable, or will he continue to stink it up on both ends? The starting lineups are evenly matched. These are supposed to be two of the top benches in the league. Which reserves will live up to that reputation?

Predictions

Andrew: Los Angeles Lakers in seven.
Brian: San Antonio Spurs in seven.

More 2008 NBA Conference Finals Previews

- Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics

Related: Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Lamar Odom, Bruce Bowen