Empty the Bench

Boston Celtics: 66-16, 1st seed
Detroit Pistons: 59-23, 2nd seed
Head-to-Head: Boston Celtics won the regular-season series 2-1

Prelude

It seems like this has been in the cards since opening night. The NBA’s two best teams rekindling an old rivalry by squaring off in the Eastern Conference Finals for the right to vie for a championship. One franchise’s ascension to the front of the pack came about as quickly as perhaps any in NBA history; the other has been there for the past 6 years, a span in which they’ve made two appearances in the Big Show and came away victorious once. Both have been pointing to this matchup all season. Both have something to prove. Both know they’re good enough to not only advance, but to win it all.

Finally, it’s time to settle the debate that’s raged on for the past 7 months: who’s the better team—the Boston Celtics or the Detroit Pistons?

In the red corner, the second-seeded Detroit Pistons, who overcame the near three-game absence of starting PG Chauncey Billups due to a sore hamstring by defeating the Orlando Magic in a tidy five games in Round Two. They largely did it with defense, by frustrating Dwight Howard from start to finish, by limiting Hedo Turkoglu, and by making the big plays when they needed them most. Rookie guard Rodney Stuckey also acquitted himself nicely, stepping into the starting lineup and managing the team incredibly well given his lack of postseason experience and playing a big part in helping his team establish a new playoff record in Game 5 by committing just 3 turnovers as a team. (More on Rodney Stuckey here.)

They’ll have had almost a full week off when they take the floor Tuesday night, the kind of lengthy layoff that is sometimes as much a detriment as it is an advantage. When you’re playing at a high level and in a good rhythm, no team wants an extended break. In this case, however, the Pistons likely welcomed it: not only did it give Billups extra time to heal his hammy and get back up to speed in full-length scrimmages, it also benefited Rasheed Wallace (who banged with the hulking Howard for most of Round 2) and Tayshaun Prince, who after going toe-to-toe with the 76ers’ Andre Iguodala in the first round averaged just over 42 minutes/per in the second. It won’t get any easier with Paul Pierce lining up against him next.

And in the green corner it’s the top-seeded Boston Celtics, a team that looked nearly invincible during the regular season but has been pushed to the limit by both the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers in the postseason. One of the biggest storylines so far has been their surprising inability to win on the road (for more on that, please see “Wild Card” below), but let’s not forget how excellent their team defense has been… and as you may have guessed it all begins with Kevin Garnett, the NBA’s 2008 Defensive Player of the Year. He earned that honor during the regular season, and he’s certainly earning it in now in helping his team allow just 86.1 points/per thus far.

KG is getting it done on offense too.

Through the Celtics’ first 14 playoff games, Garnett leads the team in scoring (20.3) and rebounding (9.9) and has literally been the only Celtic who has consistently shot a high percentage from the field (51% FG). He’ll be put to the test once again in facing Rasheed Wallace, a mano y mano tangle that’s one of ETB’s absolute favorite matchups to watch.

The other two parts of Boston’s Big Three haven’t been quite as successful… that is until Paul Pierce almost single-handedly elevated his team into Round 3 on Sunday afternoon with a Game 7 performance Celtics (and Cavaliers) fans won’t soon forget. With his small-forward counterpart LeBron James doing what LeBron James seems to always do in big games, Pierce was every bit as good and in the end even better: 13-23 for 41 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals in 43 gutty minutes. And with the outcome hanging in the balance late in the fourth quarter, it was Pierce diving onto the floor for a loose ball, securing it long enough to call a timeout, and emerging from the scrum screaming with exhausted passion.

Ray Allen? Um, not exactly. More on him later.

So here we are, just hours away from the start of a series that most predicted all the way back in November would decide who’d represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s NBA Finals. Who’s better, Boston or Detroit? It’s finally time to settle the debate once and for all.

ETB breaks down the Celtics-Pistons series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Frontcourt

Nobody on the Celtics wants this more than Kevin Garnett does. Nobody. The emotional heart and soul of these Celtics was, believe it or not, reluctant to leave Minnesota at first due to his almost insane sense of loyalty he felt to that franchise and those fans. Only after talking to friends around the league and looking at the situation in Boston did he warm up to the idea, a change of heart that instantly lifted this down-and-out franchise back into the company of the NBA’s elite.

He’s been as good as advertised and then some in his first year in Beantown. This was the first season KG didn’t average at least 20 points and 10 boards/per since 1997-98, but it’s also the first time in a loooooong time he hasn’t had to (P.S. 18.8 and 9.2 are nothing to sneeze at). His 54% FG is the highest of his career while the 1.9 turnovers are the lowest since he was a rookie all the way back in 1995. He was the Celtics’ MVP of the regular season and so far he’s been their MVP of the playoffs.

And we can’t wait to see at least five games of him and Rasheed Wallace jostling in the post and swearing up a hellfire storm. Don’t expect either one to be mic’d up for a television broadcast—there wouldn’t be enough time to edit either one’s on-court banter down to a R rating. This was the premier power forward matchup in the Western Conference back in the day when KG was rolling with the T’Wolves and ‘Sheed was hooping in Portland. Though it’s not as highly billed anymore, it’s lost no appeal whatsoever in our eyes. Both of us here at ETB have been hoping all season long for this series at this point in the playoffs, and the Sheed-KG plot is one of the biggest reasons why. Here’s more on these two.

Kevin Garnett Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Tayshaun Prince might be the key to this entire series—well, him and Paul Pierce. As he tends to be, Prince has been nothing short of spectacular this postseason, doing whatever has been asked of him and doing it well. He’s shooting an astounding 56% from the field and at times been the lone constant for the Pistons on offense. He’s guarding the other team’s top scorer and doing an admirable job of limiting their effectiveness. And when Billups was out against Orlando, he emulated LeBron James in handling the ball more often than the point guard. However, he’s going to have to be better against Boston and Pierce.

Perhaps more than any other Celtic, Pierce was a major pain in the arse for Detroit in the regular season. Pierce was only 5-16 from the field in both of the first games these teams met, but on January 5 at the Palace Pierce was able to get to the hole just about whenever he wanted. You look at the boxscore from that one and see that Glen “Where’s the Food?” Davis had 20 points in just 23 minutes and wonder how it happened; that was Pierce dishing to him for open dunks and layups after beating Prince and drawing the help defender. There was certainly more panache in the James-Pierce matchup in Round 2, but this one should be just as entertaining.

Doc Rivers has gone back and forth with his supplementary cast of big men during these playoffs. At various times and in various situations we’ve seen Davis, Leon Powe, starting center Kendrick Perkins, and veteran mercenary P.J. Brown log extended minutes. A lot of it’s been based on matchups, but either way I expect to see Brown out there a lot against the Pistons, especially given his strong Game 7 performance Sunday afternoon (10 points, 6 boards, and a steal in 20 minutes). I just don’t think Rivers can rely on Davis, regardless of how he fared against the Pistons in the past, or even Powe.

It looks like Antonio McDyess will step back into the starting lineup after mostly coming off the bench because of a broken nose suffered in Round 1 against Philadelphia. As the lone member of Detroit’s core that wasn’t on the 2004 championship team, he’s played like a man desperate to finally win it. His effort in the decisive Game 5 against Orlando was especially inspiring. Despite getting news that his grandmother (who apparently raised him) had passed away, Dice soldiered on and had one of his better games of the playoffs, playing 37 minutes and finishing with 17 points and 11 rebounds. If he can bring that same kind of energy against Boston, he’ll give his team a big advantage.

He’s spelled by ETB favorite Jason Maxiell, one of the most ferocious dunkers in the league, as well as shot-blocking veteran Theo Ratliff. The Pistons will occasionally trot Jarvis Hayes and Walter Hermann out there to give Prince a breather, but both have contributed very little to the Pistons’ cause this postseason and cannot be relied upon for anything more than spot minutes.

Backcourt

All eyes will be on how Rajon Rondo deals with Chauncey Billups, at least in the early going of the series. Rondo is already a lot quicker than Billups is even without the hamstring issues for the Pistons captain. In fact, it’s probably the only advantage Boston’s second-year PG has on Billups, so it’ll be interesting to see how hard he works to exploit it to his advantage.

During the three games these teams squared off in the regular season, the common assumption was that the bigger, stockier, smarter Billups would have a field day with the relatively inexperienced Rondo, pushing him down onto the blocks where he can post him up at will and score tons of easy buckets. It did go down like that, sort of, but Rondo surprised some with his peskiness and pressure on Billups at the top of the key as well as his strong self-confidence that he can handle himself and knock down open shots.

Now the stakes are higher, the pressure is greater, and the experience of having been there before for Billups could be big. Don’t forget that Billups is one of only two active guards in the league to have been named a NBA Finals MVP. Still, don’t be surprised to see the younger Rondo be the aggressor early on and test out his adversary’s formerly sore hammy–reports out of Detroit is that Billups has fully recovered and that he’s at 100%, but we won’t know for sure until Tuesday night.

The more compelling one-on-one matchup, at least to me, is Detroit’s All-Star shooting guard Rip Hamilton locking horns with Boston’s All-Star and future Hall of Famer Ray Allen. As fellow U-Conn alumni, these two always seem to have an extra skip in their step when they face off, and during the regular season they were constantly jawing at each other and getting really chippy by the time the game had ended. Both are pure scorers who can knock down open jumpers with the best of them, and once either gets in a rhythm they’re fully capable of reeling off 8, 10, 12 points in a hurry.

Of course, Allen has barely been able to put up that many points in an entire game since the playoffs started. He’s shooting just 38% FG over Boston’s first 14 postseason games and has failed to score in double digits in four of those games—this is a guy who averaged 17.4 points/per this year and is a career 45% shooter. In short, he’s been terrible so far on both ends of the court. That said, I don’t expect him to keep missing wide-open jumpers like he has been. I mean, he can’t keep being this bad… can he? He’s certainly not getting down on himself or his team: “We’ve learned a lot about each other. It’s good for us because as a team this is our first time together,” Allen said. “Our valleys that we’re going through, seven games, adversity on the road. All that stuff that people say is a reason why we won’t win, it’s a reason why we will win.”

Chauncey Billups Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Give the slight edge to Detroit as far as depth goes. Stuckey really distinguished himself against the Magic in his two starts, an experience that could pay huge dividends moving forward. He’s probably still not as quick as Rondo, but he can certainly keep up better than Billups can in the open court and is a better slasher to the basket. The number that really impresses me with Stuckey is 27, as in the number of free throws he’s made out of 28 attempts. That’s phenomenal stuff for a rookie. He’s complimented by stalwart veteran Lindsey Hunter (another guy coach Flip Saunders could throw at Rondo), as well as fellow rook Arron Afflalo and veteran Juan Dixon. Don’t expect to see much of either player.

Boston counters with 39-year-old vet Sam “Big Brass Balls” Cassell, who’s been up and down for Doc Rivers this postseason and did not play in Games 6 and 7 against the Cavaliers after failing to make a shot in 13 attempts over the prior three games. Still, don’t count him out—like Allen, he’s going to keep battling and keep shooting (if he gets out there, of course). Three-point specialist Eddie “Sideline Cheerleader Extraordinaire” House seems to have supplanted Cassell, giving his team a boost in these last two games with his hustle. Tony Allen has fallen out of the postseason rotation.

Wild Card

The Boston Celtics knew that having homecourt advantage would be advantageous if they were to meet the Detroit Pistons in the playoffs. There’s no way they could have anticipated how crucial it’d be against the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers.

After finishing the regular season as the NBA’s best road team with a 31-10 record away from TD Banknorth Garden, the Boston Celtics have yet to get over the hump in the playoffs and post a single win on the road in six tries. They’re probably sick of hearing about it and their fans are sick of hearing about it too, but at this point it’s become a valid concern worth consideration. On the flipside, the Celtics have yet to drop a home game, which is the reason they’re still here. They worked all season long to get homecourt advantage, and all that hard work has paid off in spades.

Dealing with the road-tested Detroit Pistons is a whole other story.

Until the Los Angeles Lakers closed out the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City Friday night, the Pistons were the only team to win a road game in the second round—and they did it without the services of an All-Star in Billups. It’s also worth noting that both appearances the Pistons have made in the NBA Finals during this amazing run of six straight Conference Finals came when they did not have homecourt advantage: in 2004 they ended the Indiana Pacers’ season in six games, then defeated the Miami Heat on their home floor in Game Seven the following year. And don’t forget that the Pistons are only one of six teams that won in Boston this season (87-85 back on December 19), a fact not forgotten by Billups: “That’s definitely a big plus that we have won there, in a season that they pretty much won most of their home games,” Billups said. “We draw confidence from that, but we know that we’re a great road team, in anybody’s building. That’s where we really draw our confidence from.”

We know that Rasheed Wallace usually performs better on the road than at home and tends to feed off the vitriol from opposing crowds; Paul Pierce has been a much more effective player in front of the hometown fans during these playoffs. The question then is this: can Boston hold serve in Games 1 and 2 and pack their bags for Detroit with a 2-0 lead in the series? If not, can they go into the Palace of Auburn Hills (where the Pistons have only lost once in the playoffs) and finally win a road game a playoff road game?

Predictions

Andrew: Boston Celtics in seven.
Brian: Detroit Pistons in six.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 3

- Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Related: Detroit Pistons, Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics, Paul Pierce, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Ray Allen

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