Empty the Bench

New Orleans Hornets: 56-26, 2nd seed
San Antonio Spurs: 56-26, 3rd seed
Head-to-Head: Split the regular-season series 2-2.

Prelude

Few would have predicted that the Spurs would be so quick to dispatch with the Suns that San Antonio would be starting their second-round matchup before the Boston Celtics had finished their first. But the time has come and gone for us to be surprised at the postseason exploits of these Spurs. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were their usual phenomenal selves. The cadre of role players stepped up every game, seemingly somebody new each night, proving that this team is not only star-laden but deep as well. Every year the Spurs lay in the weeds all regular season only to pounce upon the unsuspecting upstarts time and again. They have more playoff experience and success than any of the other team in the league, and for good reason. They’re well coached and disciplined. They play the officials and physical basketball better than any team, and both of those traits are magnified in the postseason. They’re stellar in the halfcourt on offense and defense, and so perfectly suited to the slow-it-down, drag-it-out style of the playoffs. They have deadly inside and outside scoring and veteran leadership in spades. And there is no tougher out in a seven-game series in the NBA.

San Antonio and New Orleans may have finished the regular season with identical records and split the season series, but every year the Spurs prove that the NBA’s second season is a different animal.

Flashy new teams and superstars have come and gone in the years since San Antonio drafted Tim Duncan and became a perennial title contender. This year the story out West has been the upstart New Orleans Hornets with their coach of the year, balanced offense and future MVP Chris Paul. Paul has proven he has everything it takes to be a true superstar in this league. If there were any doubters remaining when the first round kicked off, they were quickly silenced as the young phenom roared out of the gates with a 35-point, 10-assist, 4-steal performance. He continued to embarrass the awestruck Dallas Mavericks and their creaky point guard Jason Kidd to the tune of 24.6 points, 12 assists, 5.6 boards and 2 steals on 50% FGs and 81% FTs with just 1.2 TOs a game. He was joined in the onslaught by the unheralded David West, who stood toe-to-toe with Dirk Nowitzki and managed 22.6 points and 7.4 rebounds. But beating a once-proud and reeling Dallas squad and besting a still-potent San Antonio dynasty are two completely different tasks.

ETB breaks down the Hornets-Spurs series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

This will be Chris Paul’s chance to prove that he is, right now, the best point guard in the NBA. His offensive statistics were perhaps the best in the league this season, but it’s his quick hands and feet on defense that made Paul a true MVP candidate. Steve Nash & Co. allowed Tony Parker to go off for 29.6 points and 7 assists a game on a silly 53.3% FGs. If that happens again the Hornets don’t stand a chance, so in addition to leading the charge on offense Paul will be tasked with staying in front of the lightning-quick Parker. He’s also going to have to figure out how to defend the Spurs deadly pick-and-roll and put up with the pesky defense of Parker, Ginobili and Bowen. Look for the Spurs to try to trap him and force Paul into offensive fouls and more of a distributor role. Paul needs to be careful to utilize his penetration skills but also play smart and stay out of foul trouble. He also needs to be the best player on the floor every night.

At the two-guard spot the Spurs will look to press their advantage. Morris Peterson has played capable defense all season, but he will have his hands full with San Antonio’s regular-season MVP Manu Ginobili. Manu will be in constant motion, running Peterson and the Hornets other SG/SFs through constant screens and forcing them into dicey pick-and-roll defense at every opportunity. If Byron Scott can’t figure out how to stop Manu then San Antonio will adapt and he’ll score 25-30 points a game.

Heading into the last round I said to keep an eye on the Hornets backup point guard Jannero Pargo and he responded by averaging 14.6 points a game on 51% FGs including one 30-point outburst. He’s a scorer off the bench for New Orleans who can play both guard positions and spell Chris Paul when fatigue and foul trouble set in. He should once again be called upon to knock down open jumpers and take pressure off of their primary scorers.

The Hornets also need to get more out of Bonzi Wells, who put up just 4 points a game against the Mavs. Don’t forget, it was just two years ago that Wells exploded against these Spurs in the first round while playing for the Kings. In that series he averaged 23.2 points and 12 rebounds a game on 61% FGs. He won’t do that again, but he needs to match some of the production of Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley.

Frontcourt

Tim Duncan and David West are two of the most polished power forwards in the game, both masters of the mid-range. It should be a great matchup as Duncan tries to press the issue on the box with his array of post moves. West and Tyson Chandler need to deny him deep positioning and play disciplined defense in guarding Duncan himself, his two-man game with Parker and Ginobili and on the glass. Meanwhile, West will try to lure Duncan further and further away from the basket with his impressive range and uncanny pick-and-roll tandem with Paul. Yes, we’re going to see a ton of the ole’ pick-and-roll from both squads this series. The edge at power forward goes to the Spurs without question, and you can expect Duncan to use his experience, size and intelligence to get West into all sorts of bad positions on both ends.

At the center position Tyson Chandler should prove a mismatch for Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. He needs to take advantage and not let Thomas draw him into petty conflict and cheap offensive fouls. Chandler should be the leading rebounder in this series, but he will be besieged from all sides by the Spurs guards and small forwards, who rebound exceptionally well. Tyson will also need to be a shot-blocking presence, discouraging the penetration of Ginobili and Parker and altering their shots when they do go at him.

One of the keys to this series will be New Orleans strong outside shooting in order to keep the collapsing San Antonio defense honest. They have a number of options out there, but Peja Stojakovic will need to have a strong series. I think he will struggle while being constantly harassed by Bowen, Ginobili and Ime Udoka, but if he can shoot at a high percentage and be there to knock down big shots when West and Paul are being smothered it will keep the Hornets in this series.

Wild Card

Who will keep their cool and dictate the flow and who will get rattled and be in react mode? The Hornets have made a remarkable run, and I don’t think there’s any sense that this team is already satisfied with just being here, but the lack of experience has to catch up with them at some point. Meanwhile, the Spurs know they belong and are masters of every situation that could occur in this series. They also know every trick to throw the Hornets off of their game and get into their heads. New Orleans’ mettle will be severely tested each game while the Spurs will sit back and play smart, confident, sage basketball.

Predictions

Andrew: San Antonio Spurs in six.
Brian: San Antonio Spurs in six.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 2

- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz

- Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

- Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic

- New Orleans Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs

Tags: New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker