Comments on: The Beltway Blues: Tracy McGrady Has Been Bad, and Gilbert Arenas Needs to Go http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/ The season's over. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 20:35:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: David Friedman http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12694 David Friedman Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:18:42 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12694 Stats are a useful tool but it is important to watch the games and understand how players play. Arenas is an erratic shoot first point guard. The analogy that I like to use is if he shoots 6-9 on threes one game and 1-9 on threes the next game that is a good percentage (.389) but his team will almost certainly lose the latter game, so the best you get out of this deal is a .500 squad. Arenas is not providing enough other value to make up for his 1-9 games. The Wizards' record since he arrived is the stat to look at. He's been there for several years. How long should management wait for that "perfect storm" when everyone is healthy in the vain hope that the team might win 50 games? Except for a very brief--and far too celebrated--portion of the 2006-07 season, Arenas' Wizards have never played at a plus-50 win pace. Arenas is in no way, shape or form as good as Kobe, offensively or defensively. That is not even a subject for serious discussion. Arenas is a talented player but he is not an "elite guard," unless you are using a far more liberal definition of "elite" than I am. Kobe, Paul, Nash, T-Mac, Deron Williams are elite guards. Wade, too, when he is healthy. I'd throw in Iverson, though that might be controversial in some quarters. These are guys who have led teams to 50-plus wins or won multiple playoff series or won scoring titles or won assists titles. Economically, Arenas is "worth" whatever at least one team is willing to pay him and that could be affected by a lot of considerations other than just his playing skill (marketing, ticket sales, salary cap room, etc.). He may be worth more than some players who are currently making $15 million. However, it is my opinion that it would be a mistake to pay him that kind of money if the team's primary goal is to win a title. Arenas would be a good sidekick to a franchise level player on a championship contending team but it is far from certain that he would accept such a role. I have a very hard time picturing Arenas being the lead player on a team that wins four playoff series in one season. He's going to outduel LeBron or the Celtics' Big Three or the Pistons' ensemble quintet? I don't just mean this year but any time in the foreseeable future; I just don't see it. Stats are a useful tool but it is important to watch the games and understand how players play. Arenas is an erratic shoot first point guard. The analogy that I like to use is if he shoots 6-9 on threes one game and 1-9 on threes the next game that is a good percentage (.389) but his team will almost certainly lose the latter game, so the best you get out of this deal is a .500 squad. Arenas is not providing enough other value to make up for his 1-9 games. The Wizards’ record since he arrived is the stat to look at. He’s been there for several years. How long should management wait for that “perfect storm” when everyone is healthy in the vain hope that the team might win 50 games? Except for a very brief–and far too celebrated–portion of the 2006-07 season, Arenas’ Wizards have never played at a plus-50 win pace.

Arenas is in no way, shape or form as good as Kobe, offensively or defensively. That is not even a subject for serious discussion.

Arenas is a talented player but he is not an “elite guard,” unless you are using a far more liberal definition of “elite” than I am. Kobe, Paul, Nash, T-Mac, Deron Williams are elite guards. Wade, too, when he is healthy. I’d throw in Iverson, though that might be controversial in some quarters. These are guys who have led teams to 50-plus wins or won multiple playoff series or won scoring titles or won assists titles.

Economically, Arenas is “worth” whatever at least one team is willing to pay him and that could be affected by a lot of considerations other than just his playing skill (marketing, ticket sales, salary cap room, etc.). He may be worth more than some players who are currently making $15 million. However, it is my opinion that it would be a mistake to pay him that kind of money if the team’s primary goal is to win a title. Arenas would be a good sidekick to a franchise level player on a championship contending team but it is far from certain that he would accept such a role. I have a very hard time picturing Arenas being the lead player on a team that wins four playoff series in one season. He’s going to outduel LeBron or the Celtics’ Big Three or the Pistons’ ensemble quintet? I don’t just mean this year but any time in the foreseeable future; I just don’t see it.

]]> By: Andrew Thell http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12475 Andrew Thell Fri, 25 Apr 2008 03:01:14 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12475 I think it's interesting that Gilbert was injured this game and played his fewest minutes of the series -- and the Wizards won by 36 points. They had 20 assists and shot 52.1% FGs, this after Washington failed to eclipse 16 assists or shoot better than 40.2% FGs in either of the previous games. Every Washington player who played 20 minutes made at least half of their field-goal attempts. Antonio Daniels had 6 assists, three times what he had in the previous two games combined and equal to Gilbert's combined total from those games. The Cavaliers point guards Delonte West and Daniel Gibson were held to 9 total points and 3 total assists. That pair combined for 43 points and 16 assists in the first two games. I think it’s interesting that Gilbert was injured this game and played his fewest minutes of the series — and the Wizards won by 36 points.

They had 20 assists and shot 52.1% FGs, this after Washington failed to eclipse 16 assists or shoot better than 40.2% FGs in either of the previous games. Every Washington player who played 20 minutes made at least half of their field-goal attempts.

Antonio Daniels had 6 assists, three times what he had in the previous two games combined and equal to Gilbert’s combined total from those games. The Cavaliers point guards Delonte West and Daniel Gibson were held to 9 total points and 3 total assists. That pair combined for 43 points and 16 assists in the first two games.

]]> By: tone http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12457 tone Thu, 24 Apr 2008 16:46:09 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12457 i've been saying this for years...people are so concerned with stats and regular season buzzer beaters that they miss the point...this team is not winnig with gil...he only cares about himself and his stats...they have no chance of every contending with gil as their franchise player.. i’ve been saying this for years…people are so concerned with stats and regular season buzzer beaters that they miss the point…this team is not winnig with gil…he only cares about himself and his stats…they have no chance of every contending with gil as their franchise player..

]]> By: E-luv http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12453 E-luv Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:32:41 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12453 On the outside looking in, your points on Gilbert seem to make sense. But when you look a little deeper you will see that your argument is flawed. Look at game 1, Gil had 20+ in 28 minutes and if Jamison and Caron would have made open shots that he was giving them the Wiz would have won that game going away. Secondly, Jamison and Butler need to step up their games as well. Look at their performances in this playoffs. It has been horrible. I don't mind if you put the entire Wizards team under the bus, but don't put Gil there alone. On the outside looking in, your points on Gilbert seem to make sense. But when you look a little deeper you will see that your argument is flawed. Look at game 1, Gil had 20+ in 28 minutes and if Jamison and Caron would have made open shots that he was giving them the Wiz would have won that game going away.

Secondly, Jamison and Butler need to step up their games as well. Look at their performances in this playoffs. It has been horrible. I don’t mind if you put the entire Wizards team under the bus, but don’t put Gil there alone.

]]> By: Ben http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12451 Ben Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:59:36 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12451 What an intellectually lazy case against Gilbert. As Ziller correctly points out, Gil is in of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the league. There's also a statistical case to be made that his defense had improved considerably this year before he re-injured himself (though he clearly wasn't fully healthy to begin with). Yes, he talks too much. Hopefully he'll grow up. He's certainly young enough to have room to improve in that department. But any argument against the quality of his play is simply foolish. Read more actual insight here: http://realgm.com/src_goaltending/133/20080117/are_the_wizards_better_without_gilbert_arenas/ What an intellectually lazy case against Gilbert. As Ziller correctly points out, Gil is in of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the league.

There’s also a statistical case to be made that his defense had improved considerably this year before he re-injured himself (though he clearly wasn’t fully healthy to begin with).

Yes, he talks too much. Hopefully he’ll grow up. He’s certainly young enough to have room to improve in that department. But any argument against the quality of his play is simply foolish.

Read more actual insight here: http://realgm.com/src_goaltending/133/20080117/are_the_wizards_better_without_gilbert_arenas/

]]> By: Brian Spencer http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12448 Brian Spencer Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:23:01 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12448 You make a good point, Ziller, but there's much more to Gilbert's worth (or lack thereof) than simply his stats and/or ability to draw fouls, and Andrew's argument isn't only based on FG % or points alone. There are a lot more intangible qualities that Gilbert lacks--always has, always will--that make questioning his monetary worth a very valid discussion. Mr. Cuppett, I think lumping Carmelo (his Nuggets have lost 18 of 22 playoff games) in there with McGrady and Arenas might work, actually, despite your sarcasm. But LeBron? I think everybody knows there's a big difference between him and that trio. You make a good point, Ziller, but there’s much more to Gilbert’s worth (or lack thereof) than simply his stats and/or ability to draw fouls, and Andrew’s argument isn’t only based on FG % or points alone. There are a lot more intangible qualities that Gilbert lacks–always has, always will–that make questioning his monetary worth a very valid discussion.

Mr. Cuppett, I think lumping Carmelo (his Nuggets have lost 18 of 22 playoff games) in there with McGrady and Arenas might work, actually, despite your sarcasm. But LeBron? I think everybody knows there’s a big difference between him and that trio.

]]> By: Christopher Cuppett http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12445 Christopher Cuppett Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:24:20 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12445 Excellent point, Ziller! Gil's true shooting percentage was 56.5% last season. That was better than both Carmelo Anthony's and LeBron James's. So I guess the Nuggets should part ways with Melo and the Cavs with LeBron, since like Gilbert they shoot such a poor percentage? Excellent point, Ziller! Gil’s true shooting percentage was 56.5% last season. That was better than both Carmelo Anthony’s and LeBron James’s. So I guess the Nuggets should part ways with Melo and the Cavs with LeBron, since like Gilbert they shoot such a poor percentage?

]]> By: Ziller http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12387 Ziller Thu, 24 Apr 2008 00:33:50 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12387 Looking at Gil's raw FG% obfuscates his real offensive impact because he takes (and makes) so many threes and draws so many fouls. Arenas's True shooting percentage has been comparable to Kobe's the past three seasons (not counting this year, which has sample size issues). Adding turnovers and assists, Kobe and Gil are basically offensive equals. Kobe's much better defensively. But is that enough to say Gil's not worth 65% of Kobe's salary? I don't think so. Gil's an elite guard. He's worth $15 million or more. Looking at Gil’s raw FG% obfuscates his real offensive impact because he takes (and makes) so many threes and draws so many fouls. Arenas’s True shooting percentage has been comparable to Kobe’s the past three seasons (not counting this year, which has sample size issues). Adding turnovers and assists, Kobe and Gil are basically offensive equals. Kobe’s much better defensively. But is that enough to say Gil’s not worth 65% of Kobe’s salary? I don’t think so.

Gil’s an elite guard. He’s worth $15 million or more.

]]> By: Bart http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12385 Bart Thu, 24 Apr 2008 00:03:23 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12385 And which star do they get to replace him? Or how do you expect to win in the NBA without a legit star to get all the calls from the ref? I'll be more in favor of dumping Arenas if there's another star out there that'll come in to replace. This is the NBA, you can't win without stars (Pistons being the single exception). And which star do they get to replace him? Or how do you expect to win in the NBA without a legit star to get all the calls from the ref? I’ll be more in favor of dumping Arenas if there’s another star out there that’ll come in to replace. This is the NBA, you can’t win without stars (Pistons being the single exception).

]]> By: Andrew Thell http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12378 Andrew Thell Wed, 23 Apr 2008 20:32:14 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12378 You make a good point David. But I'm not sure it's the right criteria - should we be concerned with whether or not he can be the lead guy on a 50-plus win team, or if he can be the lead guy on a team that is a viable title contender? I think there are a lot of players in the league that can have a huge impact on regular-season success, and struggling franchises should value them for their ability to put butts in seats. But from a critical standpoint I'm more concerned with the guys who can actually improve the team's chances at accomplishing what should be the ultimate goal: winning an NBA championship. I have yet to be convinced that Tracy McGrady is such a player -- making his exorbitant salary and nearly 20 field-goal attempts per night unjustifiable. You make a good point David. But I’m not sure it’s the right criteria – should we be concerned with whether or not he can be the lead guy on a 50-plus win team, or if he can be the lead guy on a team that is a viable title contender?

I think there are a lot of players in the league that can have a huge impact on regular-season success, and struggling franchises should value them for their ability to put butts in seats. But from a critical standpoint I’m more concerned with the guys who can actually improve the team’s chances at accomplishing what should be the ultimate goal: winning an NBA championship. I have yet to be convinced that Tracy McGrady is such a player — making his exorbitant salary and nearly 20 field-goal attempts per night unjustifiable.

]]> By: David Friedman http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12377 David Friedman Wed, 23 Apr 2008 20:23:12 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12377 I agree completely about Arenas and have been saying the exact same things about him for quite some time. However, I don't think that the comparison with T-Mac is correct. If you look it up, Houston's record with T-Mac during his career as a Rocket averages out to over 50 wins per 82 games, while without him they average about 24 wins per 82; Houston's record over that period of time is much more dependent on whether T-Mac plays than whether Yao does, though that effect was not quite as dramatic this year. T-Mac has proven that he can be the lead guy on a 50-plus win team, something that Arenas has yet to do in the East despite playing with two All-Stars--and, as you note, the Wiz looked at least as good, if not better, playing virtually a whole season without him. I agree completely about Arenas and have been saying the exact same things about him for quite some time.

However, I don’t think that the comparison with T-Mac is correct. If you look it up, Houston’s record with T-Mac during his career as a Rocket averages out to over 50 wins per 82 games, while without him they average about 24 wins per 82; Houston’s record over that period of time is much more dependent on whether T-Mac plays than whether Yao does, though that effect was not quite as dramatic this year. T-Mac has proven that he can be the lead guy on a 50-plus win team, something that Arenas has yet to do in the East despite playing with two All-Stars–and, as you note, the Wiz looked at least as good, if not better, playing virtually a whole season without him.

]]> By: Carolyn http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-12373 Carolyn Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:09:00 +0000 http://www.emptythebench.com/2008/04/23/the-beltway-blues-tracy-mcgrady-has-been-bad-and-gilbert-arenas-needs-to-go/#comment-12373 I almost can't bear to watch and Gilbert looks so sad. I almost can’t bear to watch and Gilbert looks so sad.

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