Empty the Bench

Kobe Bryant Photo Credit: Jeff Lewis/Icon SM

Los Angeles Lakers: 57-25, 1st seed
Denver Nuggets: 50-31, 8th seed
Head-to-Head: Lakers on series 3-0

Prelude

A testament to just how strong the West has been this year, only seven games separate the eighth and first seeds and both are 50-win teams. This matchup isn’t the typical cakewalk you expect in the first round for a one seed, as the Los Angeles Lakers will have to contend against a roster featuring superstars Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby. That’s a lot of star power for such a heavy underdog, and it should make for some wild games. The offenses will be on overdrive — throw in Kobe Bryant and you have three of the NBA’s top four scorers from the regular season. The Denver Nuggets put up 110.7 points a game, the second-most in the league, while Los Angeles manages 108.6 points per, good for fourth-most in the league. Both of these squads can score. The difference will be defense, or the lack thereof in Denver. The Nuggets are giving up 107 points a night, the second-worst defense in the NBA. Los Angeles hasn’t been elite this year, but they only allow 101.3 points, which places them in the middle of the pack.

It should be interesting to see how these two coaches match up. George Karl’s teams have earned a reputation for underachieving and choking in the postseason, and you have to consider an eight seed a disappointment for any team featuring that Iverson, Melo and Camby trio. Karl is also an extremely ornery and bull-headed coach who wears his players down, fluctuates minutes, makes rapid lineup changes and isn’t afraid to put somebody in the doghouse at any point. Compared to Karl, Phil Jackson’s relaxed brand of leadership makes him look like a cuddly teddy bear. Jackson is largely going to sit back and let his players play, simply making the necessary defensive adjustments and substitutions. He’s had tremendous success at this level, and he isn’t going to get rattled — and he won’t let his team either.

While I consider the Denver regular-season performance a let down, the fact that the Lake Show sits atop the West is remarkable. The contentious summer in Los Angeles when most NBA observers thought there was a slim chance that Kobe Bryant would finish this season in a Lakers jersey seems like a very long time ago. It’s hard to imagine that Sports Illustrated predicted this team would miss the postseason. Now they sit with top seed in the Western Conference and likely MVP Kobe Bryant firmly committed to this team, having one of the most effective and least selfish seasons of his career. Kobe has been able to adapt his game to teammates and situations. Before Bynum went down Kobe had his Lakers atop the ultra-competitive Western Conference for a spell. Then he took on the scoring load and sustained them until the Paul Gasol trade. After Pau came to town, he adjusted and adapted to the arrival of another star who needs the ball. Over the last year Kobe has adapted to and built his game around a completely new team, and they’ve become one of the four best teams in the NBA.

ETB breaks down the Lakers-Nuggets series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

The Denver Nuggets will feature the smallish duo of 6-2 Anthony Carter and 6-0 Allen Iverson in the backcourt, something that will be a major concern for the entire series. While the offense has been prolific, they don’t have anybody who can keep up with Kobe. Carter has resurrected his career in Denver this season, becoming a strong passer and on-court leader, but he’s simply not very strong, not very quick and will struggle against the bigger and stronger guards on Los Angeles — in their three regular season matchups Carter averaged just 3 points a game on 20% FGs. Allen Iverson should have little trouble picking up the lion’s share of the backcourt scoring though. He’s too sneaky, elusive and versatile for just about anybody to handle, and AI managed 32 points a game on 50% FGs against Los Angeles this year.

The other Denver guard to keep an eye out for is J.R. Smith, a tremendous athlete and scorer off the bench. He started the season in George Karl’s doghouse, but since the All-Star break Smith has been integrated into the rotation and delivered an awesome scoring punch. In the last 30 games Smith is averaging nearly 16 points a game in just under 22 minutes of action, and he’s been doing it on 49.3% FGs and 40.9% 3PTs. He does a lot of that damage from downtown, taking more than half of his shots from behind the arc, but he’s also a great leaper who can sneak behind defenses and get out on the break. The Lakers need to keep a close eye on this guy.

Derek Fisher is a few steps slower these days, especially with the tender foot, but he’s a capable, cagey and nasty defender who will be tasked with keeping those three in check. He’s also a guy Denver will have to keep an eye on. Derek has long been one of the best clutch performers in the game, something that makes it more difficult to double- and triple-team Kobe in late-game situations. I feel confident saying he will knock down a couple of huge shots this postseason. His ability to handle the ball and make good decisions has also taken a ton of pressure off of Bryant all season, and will also show up once this postseason gets underway. Aside from those tangible skills, the fact that he’s been there before will continue to be an asset to LA in their quest for a title.

The other player in Los Angeles’s backcourt is a pretty decent player too, Kobe Bryant. We all know how awesome he is. Specifically this series the Lakers need Kobe to come out with his typical cocky swagger. The Nuggets can’t stop him, and he knows it. I don’t expect Kobe to let us down in that regard. It doesn’t necessarily mean hogging the ball though. It will behoove Los Angeles to have Kobe get the rest of the team involved in the offense early, something he’s made a conscious effort to do early in most games this season.

Jordan Farmar figures to see plenty of minutes off the bench, and he needs to be a reasonable backup to Fisher. They don’t want to run the aging Fisher into the ground early. Farmar is a heady player who is capable of heating up on offense, but he should mostly be tasked with playing decent defense and serviceable minutes off the bench. The other backup guard of note in LA is Sasha Vujacic, a very strong spot-up shooter who actually gives decent effort on defense as well. If Vujacic and Farmar can play effectively when the starters are resting, Denver won’t stand much of a chance.

Frontcourt

I’m curious to see how Carmelo Anthony responds to this matchup. Clearly, Denver is over-matched and will need him to score above his normal 25.7 PPG clip. But what the Nuggets need even more will be a strong defensive performance from Melo. He’s going to have his hands full with the versatile Lamar Odom and drifting Vladimir Radmanovic running him ragged. It’s never been his game, but for the Nuggets to stand a chance they need Melo to be active on the glass and keep his man in check, chasing guys like Radmanovic to the perimeter, all while staying out of foul trouble.

And what Anthony can’t do in those respects, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby have to pick up the slack. Martin has been a major comeback story this season and he will need to play out of his head. Kenyon did not play well over the last month of the season, and he needs to return to his early 2008 form and score around 15 points per game on high-percentage shots while hitting the glass and creating turnovers. He’ll be next to Marcus Camby, one of the premier help defenders in the NBA. Camby gets plenty of practice at it with his teammates playing matador defense on the perimeter every night. He will probably be asked to guard Pau Gasol for long stretches, and if Camby can win that matchup it would be a major coup for the Nuggets. I think Camby is also an underrated offensive player, with a mediocre jumper and good passing skills. He should be able to have an impact against the softer Lakers big men.

The Lakers will be counting on big performances from the talented duo of Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol, and the two should combine for around 35+ points per game. Gasol will be playing center and he should be able to score at will and play a two-man game with Kobe to great effect against the smaller Nuggets. Gasol is one of the top-ten low-post scorers in the NBA and a decent help defender. Gasol struggles in traditional man defense, but even there he will be able to keep up with most of the Nuggets bigs. Odom is going to be asked to perform a Swiss Army Knife role for the Lakers, sometimes looking for his shot, but more often rebounding and playing point-forward. It’s a role he’s embraced, being Los Angeles’s best rebounder while also handling the ball, dropping assists, blocking a few shots and scoring at an incredible clip (59.0% FGs since the All-Star Break). Odom is playing like the most versatile big man in the game, doing whatever it takes to win each night, and it makes the rest of the Los Angeles frontcourt even more difficult to handle.

The other starter for Los Angeles will be Vladimir Radmanovic, a spot-up shooter who will just be asked to spread the floor and wait for the ball while Kobe, Odom and Gasol do their thing. If his shot is falling he’s going to make life difficult for the Nuggets because they won’t be able to double-team as much as they would like. Also coming off the bench up front will be one of my favorite players, Ronny Turiaf. Turiaf is the definition of hustle, a relentless defender and one of the most active players in the league around the basket.

Wild Card

Denver’s interior defense. If the Lakers win, it will simply be because they’re more talented roster, have the MVP and possess superior coaching. The potential wild card would be Denver suddenly showing up and playing defense, and that’s going to take place with the forwards and center. Los Angeles should be able to score on the smaller Nuggets outside, but Denver can’t let them control points in the paint as well. Camby needs to be a monster on the blocks, gobbling up rebounds and not letting anybody get easy layups. Camby has played will in the postseason before, and he’s a tough matchup for Los Angeles. Kenyon Martin also needs to be focused on keeping the Lakers shooters in check, getting after the ball, and helping Camby seal off the lane. If they can keep the Lakers around or under 100 points a game, they’ll have a chance.

Predictions

Andrew: Los Angeles Lakers in six.
Brian: Los Angeles Lakers in six.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 1

- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards

- Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic

- San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns

- New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks

- Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets

- Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers

- Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Tags: Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol