Empty the Bench

“I think the Washington Wizards have got to be the dumbest team in the history of civilization.” - TNT analyst, NBA great, and Krispy Kreme fan Charles Barkley.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 45-37, 4th seed
Washington Wizards: 43-39, 5th seed
Head-to-Head: Split the season series 2-2

Prelude

Be careful what you wish for, Washington Wizards.

For the past two seasons, the Wiz “stormed” the playoffs only to be bested in the first round both times by LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and their revolving, ragtag cast of compliments on the Cleveland Cavaliers. That hasn’t deterred the Wizards’ confidence in the least during the 2007-08 season, however: first, shooting guard DeShawn Stevenson claimed that James was “overrated” after the All-NBA performer clanged a triple at the buzzer in a 101-99 Washington win in March. James laughed off Stevenson’s preposterous assertion, but perhaps paid more attention to the ever-outspoken Gilbert Arenas’ recent entry in his NBA blog, where he said “I think everybody wants Cleveland in that first round. They’ve been a .500 team ever since they made that trade, and everybody wants a chance at that matchup.”

Well, Arenas, Stevenson, and the rest of the Wizards have had their wish granted, their chance fulfilled, and revenge will surely be on their mind (they’ve won just 2 of the 10 games these teams have played in the last two postseasons). The Cavaliers, as the reigning Eastern Conference Champions, enter the playoffs with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove after stumbling towards the finish line. Neither team was especially strong during the month of April (Cleveland 4-4, Washington 5-3), and both are dealing with minor and major injuries to key rotation players. Still, given the recent history and the boasting and bragging that went on during the season’s waning days, this should shape up as one the most intriguing matchups in the Eastern’s first round.

ETB breaks down the Wizards-Cavaliers playoff series after the jump…

Backcourt

With so many question marks in both teams frontcourts, each will be looking for their main players to quickly distinguish themselves; whichever one does it first (and there’s a chance neither do) will give their squad a major leg up in the race to four wins.

After being traded from Boston to Seattle as part of the Ray Allen deal last summer, Delonte West never really settled in on the young, rebuilding Sonics and was shipped to Cleveland in that big three-team deal at the deadline. Since joining the Cavs West has been steady, especially during April when he averaged 12.4 points, 4.3 assists, 1 triple, 1.6 steals, 50% FG. It seems he’s peaking at the right time, but though we’ve always been a fan of his dating back to his first few NBA seasons with the Celtics, he’s very unproven under pressure. Ditto for starting backcourt mate Devin Brown, who like West came on late but is a postseason unknown. The Cavs struck gold during last year’s playoffs when then-rookie Daniel Gibson came out of nowhere to become an extremely dangerous outside scoring threat—will Cleveland be so lucky again? Can Gibson shake off nagging injuries and regain his sweet shooting stroke? And though by all counts Sasha Pavlovic has had a terrible season, his loss (see “Wild Card,” below) hurts depth.

There’s more postseason experience for the Wizards, but they’ll clearly need a healthy, productive, smart Gilbert Arenas for this crew to establish themselves as superior. Starting PG Antonio Daniels has done a marvelous job stepping in for Arenas this season, averaging a career-high 30:23 minutes/per along with 8.4 points, 4.8 assists, 1 steal, and just 1 turnover. He does nothing spectacularly well, but he’s a solid, heady player who plays within himself and the flow of the game and rarely forces the issue (Arenas could learn a thing or two from him in that department).

Stevenson threw a log on the fire by calling James overrated and will face more scrutiny than normal because of it. To steal from my Unsung Hero Day feature, the 6-5 vet has “proven to be a warrior, playing in all 76 games this year despite a series of nagging injuries that could have easily landed some on the inactive list. He’s not an exceptional man defender, but he doesn’t back down from anybody, be their name Kobe, LeBron, whoever. He’ll lay a scoring egg one month (7.3 points/per in November), but compensate it by elevating his game another (13.9/per in February). He’s also been known to drop some major daggers in late-game situations this season.”

If he can turn it up like the Gilbert of old, Arenas could carry this matchup all by himself. He’ll be coming off the bench for as long as the Wizards are alive in the postseason, and though I expect him to still log starter-like minutes he’ll often be matched up with the Cavs’ backups, a cast that includes Gibson, Damon Jones, and Wally Szczerbiak. Yeah–a gratuitous torching or two (or three or four) could certainly be in the offing. And don’t forget about Roger Mason, who’s enjoyed the best season of his four-year career. He scored in double digits 35 times this season, including two 30+ point outburts in extended action. I don’t expect to see rookie Nick Young much.

Frontcourt

Both teams prominently feature current or former All-Stars in their frontcourt rotation: for the Cavs it’s James, Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace, while the Wizards counter with Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison (along with starting C Brendan Haywood). With the exception of Wallace, all of the above are capable of dropping 20+ points every night, and oftentimes over 30. There’s no question that all four of these scorers are going to get theirs at some point, but I see this matchup being decided by a few things.

The Wizards must contain the Cavs on the glass. As basically the NBA’s best rebounders as a team (along with the Rockets, Sonics, Lakers, and Nuggets), the Cavs averaged more offensive rebounds/per—13.3—than anyone else. The Wizards, on the other hand, are near the bottom of the Association both in team rebounding (41.6) and defensive boards (29.3). They’ll need to body up on James, Ilgauskas, Wallace, Anderson Varejao, etc. and not give up easy putback dunks and gimmes. Though Cleveland’s lineup of big men has changed since last year, the Detroit Pistons learned the hard way in the ECF that the Cavs are very capable of beating you with their energy, hustle, and nose for rebounds and loose balls. Haywood, Jamison, Butler—I’m talking to you.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas Photo Credit: Icon SMI

It doesn’t take an expert to say this, but the Wizards, specifically Butler, must realize that expecting to lock and shut down King James in the postseason is simply unlikely to happen. The key, as always, is to stay in front of him, coax him into taking long jumpers, and for god’s sake to limit his drives to the hole. If James is allowed to repeatedly waltz from the perimeter into the lane in a half-court set for easy dunks, the Wizards will be in a world of trouble. Sending immediate double-teams LeBron’s way 75% - 85% of the time is worth a shot; I just don’t have any faith in the Cavs’ perimeter shooters right now, and I’d much rather take my chances with a Wally World or Daniel Gibson longball than a thunder dunk by LeBron that gets his team going.

Finally, it’ll be crucial for the Wizards’ starting frontcourt to stay out of foul trouble, especially early in the game. While Andray Blatche and Darius Songaila have both shown flashes this season and turned in a few solid stretches, both are hardly reliable options in the pressure-packed postseason. And unfortunately, they’re really the only two coach Eddie Jordan can turn to when it’s time to give his banged-up starters a rest. And that leads me to…

Wild Card

In this battle between such evenly matched foes, injuries to each team’s respective pillars could potentially have a major say in who ultimately emerges victorious. James has been battling back problems for much of April, and it’s clearly affected his performance. Wallace’s increasingly chronic back problems are becoming, well, a big problem, and Wally World is always at risk of reinjuring one of his many past ailments. Backup swingman Sasha Pavlovic will already miss the series with a sprained ankle.

For the five seed, Butler sat out the team’s final three games of the regular season (bruised knee and other assorted bumps and bangs), and recently sounded worn-down in discussing his overall health: “It doesn’t even matter how I feel right now, it’s the playoffs,” he said. “I’m banged up a little bit everywhere but, at the same time, I have to go out there and do the best I possibly can do.” Jamison, the team’s leading scorer at 21.4/per, missed/rested three of the last seven games, while with all the fanfare surrounding Arenas’ return on April 2, he’s still only played in five games since November and is clearly exercising as much caution as possible.

All of the above players are crucial to their respective team’s success; if any were to miss one or more games, it could prove to be the decisive factor in the series.

Predictions

There’s going to be a lot of jawing back and forth. A lot of momentum swings and probably some really ugly stretches of basketball for both teams. It’ll be one of the most hard-fought, first-round series regardless of conference, and in the end it’ll be…

Andrew: Washington Wizards in seven.
Brian: Washington Wizards in six.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 1

- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards

- Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic

- San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns

- New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks

- Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets

- Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers

- Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Tags: LeBron James, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Antawn Jamison