Empty the Bench

Jerry Sloan Photo Credit: Matthias B. Krause/Icon SMI

Utah Jazz: 54-28, 4th seed
Houston Rockets: 55-27, 5th seed
Head-to-Head: 2-1, Utah Jazz

Prelude

In the middle of the West’s seeding we have a rematch of last year’s first round, and there’s a good chance it will to end in Tracy McGrady crying tears as big as horse turds again. Houston is the fifth seed, but they stole home-court advantage at the end of the season with a one-game edge on Utah, who won the Northwest Division. Last year the Rockets had the home court as well and the series went the full seven games, finishing with a heartbreaking 99-103 loss to the Jazz in game seven.

Things are going to be even more difficult for the Rockets this season, who will be missing the NBA’s best center in Yao Ming. For all but die-hard Rockets fans the loss of Yao on Feb 26th meant the end of Houston’s relevancy. We were wrong. Houston has made an improbable run after the devastating injury was diagnosed, vying for the top seed in the absurdly competitive West until the final days of the season and stringing together that famous 22-game winning streak. Unfortunately they got more bad news last Sunday when starting point guard Rafer Alston went down with a strained hamstring. He’ll miss at least the first two games of the series, leaving the Rockets at an even greater disadvantage and with an even bigger hill to climb. Then again, overcoming injuries, defying expectations and playing solid defense with interchangeable pieces has been their modus operandi all season. Can Bobby Jackson or Aaron Brooks step up in the absence of Rafer Alston? Can Houston’s cadre of hustle players and defenders up front keep up with Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur? We’ll see.

The Jazz are not a team you want to be undermanned against. They’re physical, they’re deep and they’re disciplined. They will attack weaknesses and they won’t shy away from beating a team down. Utah led the NBA in personal fouls, and they are going to grind on the shorthanded Jazz all series. At point guard Deron Williams has emerged as one of the top players in the NBA, and at power forward Carlos Boozer has been a tremendous scorer and rebounder. It’s eerie how similar those two have been able to emulate the successful Johsn Stockton/Karl Malone Jazz teams of the 90s. After those stars Utah has a deep roster full of role players and shooters. They’re strong, methodical and efficient. And their offense is excellent. Houston’s defense has been one of the top units in the league this year, but at less than full strength it’s going to be hard to stop a potent Utah offense that was second in the NBA at 49.7% FGs. The Jazz have been dismal on the road this season though, going 17-24, and they’ll need to steal at least one in Houston.

It should also be a fascinating chess game. Rick Adelman and Jerry Sloan have put on two of the finest performances by coaching staffs in the NBA this season. Sloan has had more to work with, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the chemistry of this Rockets team.

ETB breaks down the Jazz-Rockets series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

We’re about to learn a lot about Tracy McGrady over the next week. The entire weight of the Houston franchise is squarely on his shoulders and, right or wrong, another first-round exit would be a major indictment of him and his ability to win. I’m not sure how T-Mac will respond, but anything less than a superhuman effort won’t cut it. Houston’s rebounders and defenders are going to show up, that’s a given. But this team is going to have a hell of a time generating offense, especially in the first two home games with Rafer Alston on the bench. T-Mac finished the season in a major shooting slump and if he doesn’t come out of it before tipoff on Saturday night this series will be over before it even gets going. All the defensive pressure will be on McGrady and Utah has plenty of bodies to throw at him. He should see a steady dose of the underrated Ronnie Brewer, the lanky Andrei Kirilenko and the aggressive Matt Harpring — don’t be surprised to see Harpring and McGrady hit the deck a few times. Jerry Sloan has had his share of experience in dealing with elite shooting guards in the postseason, and he will not hesitate to get “physical” with the chronically achy and injured McGrady. Yes, I’m suggesting they will try to ding him up. That’s just their style; that’s the Jerry Sloan way.

At the point guard position the Rockets will ask both Bobby Jackson and Aaron Brooks to step up, with Jackson getting the starting nod. He’s actually a very solid all-around player with a nice stroke and fast hands, but Jackson will have his work cut out for him guarding Deron Williams. The third-year guard finished third in the league in assists with 10.5 a game to go along with his 18.8 points on stellar shooting percentages of 50.7% FGs, 80.3% FTs and 39.5% 3PTs. I know this isn’t a popular opinion, but for my money that efficiency and ability to spread the ball around makes Williams the best guard in this series. Deron isn’t the most athletic point, but he’s just so big and strong and talented that very few can keep up with him. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Ronnie Brewer, an athletic and versatile second-year shooting guard out of Arkansas. Brewer has been a demon in the passing lanes all season, finishing 8th in the NBA with 1.8 steals a night, right between LeBron James and Rajon Rondo. He doesn’t take many outside jumpers, but Brewer shoots over 55% from the field (seventh-best in the NBA). He also averages less than a turnover per game in 28 minutes of action. Like the rest of the Jazz, he’s extremely efficient and doesn’t make many mistakes.

If you’re looking for a wild card player to keep an eye on, look for Deron Williams’s former college teammate and Houston shooting guard Luthor Head. He’s extremely streaky, but Head is one of the most pure scorers remaining on this roster. If he can heat up from outside it would do wonders for the Rockets, especially if it draws some heat off of McGrady.

Frontcourt

There’s no point in dwelling on what Houton lost when Yao went out. What they’ve gained is a deep rotation of big men, excellent team chemisrty, a commitment to defense, more mobility and more flexibility. The group is led by the quiet but crucial contributions of Shane Battier, the NBA’s ultimate glue player. He keeps possessions alive with his hustle, ignites the break with his outlet passes, and prevents opponents fast breaks by getting back on D. Battier has the size and discipline to guard shooting guards to power forwards, and he will spend plenty of time on everybody, including Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko and even center Mehmet Okur.

Also key up front will be the play of Louis Scola, a top rookie in the league this year. He’s one of the few players on this roster who can score inside. Scola has also been impressive on the glass and keeping balls alive. Scola will need to play out of his skull every game, averaging something along the lines of 18 points and 10 rebounds a game. He’ll start alongside the aged Dikembe Mutombo, who still has some defense and shot-blocking ability left in the tank — for 15-20 minutes a night at least. Coming off the bench will be Chuck Hayes, a hustle guy who rebounds extremely well and also shoots some of the ugliest free-throws you will ever see. Also coming off the bench will be rookie Carl Landry, who has proven a surprisingly capable scorer in limited run this season.

Even with all that defense and hustle, I’m afraid the trio of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko will simply be too much to handle for Houston. Boozer is just too big and strong for them. He’ll eat the undersized Rockets up in the post. Boozer’s game has gotten so polished over the last three years, and the Utah offense puts him in a position to capitalize consistently. At center, Mehmet Okur is a finesse player who will drift to the perimeter on most possessions. After a slow start Okur has shot better than 48% from the field since the All Star break. He’s going to pull the Rockets bigs further out than they want to be, leaving the bruising Boozer even more open. Andrei Kirilenko has returned to effectiveness this season, and he’s going to be a pain in the ass for Houston. On offense he’s a strong passer and an OK shooter than can drift and spread the D. On the other end he can be a lock-down defender when motivated and should be able to keep up with McGrady, especially in late-game situations.

Coming off of Utah’s bench will be Kyle Korver, one of the better pure shooters in the league. If he can get hot and draw Shane Battier, Houston will be in major trouble. Korver won’t log heavy minutes though because he simply can’t keep up with anybody on defense. To give Boozer breathers Paul Millsap will come in, one of the stronger rebounds-per-minute players in the NBA. He’s a strong guy that could cancel out one of Houston’s bigs.

Wild Card

Utah’s Leadership. Jerry Sloan runs a tight ship, and there is no doubt he will have his players prepared mentally and emotionally for this matchup. The Jazz will not be looking past Houston. In addition, Deron Williams has emerged as a premier point guard who is a steadying influence, a distributor, a leader and a clutch performer. Under Sloan and Williams’s leadership Utah will be focused and once again advance past the Rockets in the first round. This time it won’t take seven games though.

Predictions

Andrew: Utah in five games.
Brian: Utah in seven games.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 1

- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards

- Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic

- San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns

- New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks

- Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets

- Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers

- Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Tags: Tracy McGrady, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Shane Battier, Andrei Kirilenko