Past, Present, and Future: New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview

- The Season's Over -

Past, Present, and Future: New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview

April 18, 2008

Things are looking up for Chris Paul and the Hornets

Chris Paul Photo Credit: Icon SMI

New Orleans Hornets: 56-26, 2nd seed
Dallas Mavericks: 51-31, 7th seed
Head-to-Head: Tied 2-2

Prelude

We may not see a more even matchup in this year’s NBA playoffs. Just how even is it? According to Wes Cox of Mavs Moneyball:

They each won over 50 games (obviously). They both went 10-6 in the Southwest Division. New Orleans won just one more game against conference foes.

Offensively, Dallas scores 100.4 a game with an efficiency of 108.6 points per 100 possessions (6th in the West). The Hornets score 100.9 per game with a 109.0 efficiency (5th in the West).

The Mavs allow 95.9 ppg with an efficiency of 103.2 per 100 possessions (8th in the NBA). New Orleans allows 95.6 ppg with an efficiency of 102.9 (7th in the NBA).

They play at a near identical pace — Dallas 92.5 possessions per game, New Orleans 92.1 — and neither team turns the ball over very much. Dallas turns it over on 12.3% of their possessions (5th in the NBA), and the Hornets have a turnover rate of 11.4% (3rd).

They split the season series 2-2, with both teams protecting home-court. And just for fun, if you add up the scores of those four games Dallas won by a combined total of just seven points (401–394).

Yeah, that’s pretty even. Fresh off their April 16th loss in Dallas, the New Orleans Hornets are about to get sick of seeing those doppelganger Mavericks. There’s just no way this will be a short series.

Last year Dallas’s season was defined by an epic, humiliating collapse against the eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors. It was an utter embarrassment, and this fresh off that fiasco in the NBA Finals against the Heat. They were the favorites both times and crumbled under the pressure. This year they’ll be playing the role of underdog all the way through, a welcome change for a team that has earned a reputation for failing to live up to expectations. Their season to this point has been defined by the gutsy, poorly-executed acquisition of Jason Kidd (they simply gave up way too much for a two-season rental). Kidd is a winner through and through with a long playoff resume. But he comes with questions marks as well: has he had enough time to gel with his new teammates? Do they have the spacing, transition game and pecking order down? Will he continue to be reticent to use his jumper? Will he make it if he does?

Meanwhile the upstart New Orleans Hornets are one big question mark: are they really this good? Chris Paul is the real deal, no doubt about that. And David West is a quiet All Star caliber player. Tyson Chandler is a long-armed center who can clean the glass and protect the rim. Peja Stojakovic is the token Caucasian shooter. We know about them. But what about the rest of these guys? And can a team with no playoff experience together and youngsters from top to bottom really beat a veteran-laden squad like Dallas, even with home court?

ETB breaks down the Hornets-Mavericks series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

The battle of point guards should be epic. Chris Paul has been playing at an MVP level all season, leading the league in assists and steals and still scoring 21.1 points a game on impressive 48.85 FGs and 85.1% FTs. There are no holes in his game, but if the Hornets are to advance they may need even more than they’ve gotten from Paul. He’ll be matched up against the ultra-savvy, ultra-experienced Jason Kidd. Kidd may not be able to knock down his jumpers, but he could still be the most dangerous player in the NBA in transition when his teammates finish. Kidd can’t match CP3 for quicks, but he’s a bigger and stronger presence. That should mean aggressively taking the ball at Paul in transition and backing him down in the half-court to draw fouls while pushing him around and playing solid team defense on the other end. If you’re an NBA fan you know just what these two are capable of and how much fun this should be to watch.

Morris Peterson and Jerry Stackhouse will matchup at the off-guard spot. Like the rest of the roster, Dallas has the experience edge but New Orleans has the younger guy who could surprise. Mo Pete has been a strong defender this season, and he’s still hitting a good percentage of hit outside shots (39.4% 3PTs), but he no longer looks for is shot as often. Stackhouse will not be asked to take on too much of the load, but he can still be a steady offensive player with scoring and passing.

One of the keys to this series will be the production of Jason Terry. He’s a gifted scorer who can look downright dominant at times, but he’s been unnervingly streaky. Terry has seemingly alternated excellent performances with poor outings all year, and that needs to stop. I think the Mavs will need to count on at least 15 points from him every night, and they simply can’t afford to have him lay an egg in one of their precious three home games. When Jet is on his game the Mavs are a different team, able to attack you from all over the floor with slashers and shooters to keep the defense honest.

Oh, and keep an eye out for Jannero Pargo. He’s posted modest numbers this season, but every once in a while the guy busts out for 22-24 points, and I see a couple of those games coming in this series with all eyes and bodies on Paul.

Frontcourt

Things haven’t gone well for Dirk Nowitzki since being named the NBA MVP last season, but that should only strengthen his resolve in this year’s playoffs. He took the loss to Golden State hard, perhaps harder than the loss to Miami. It took him a while to get into a groove this year, but he started hitting a stride midseason. Then he was forced to adjust to a new point guard in Jason Kidd, and after he had finally acclimated himself to that, what appeared to be a serious knee/ankle injury occurred on March 23rd. He’s returned in fine form though and heads into the playoffs full of confidence and motivation. That confidence had to be buoyed by the massive game-winner he hit against the Utah Jazz on April 10th, which is key for a player who had started to gain a reputation as a choker. Dirk should be ready to take, and make, big shots this year and Dallas will need him to.

Across from Dirk Diggler will be David West, who remains one of the more underrated gems in the league. People will know his name after this series though, I expect him to go off and average nearly 25 points a game. West plays with a good motor and solid defense, but his strength is working a nearly unstoppable pick-and-roll with Chris Paul and ability to nail that mid- to long-range jumper.

In the middle we’ll see two defensive-minded centers who aren’t going to do much more than clean the glass, look for easy buckets and protect the basket. Tyson Chandler is better than Erick Dampier in all of those phases of the game. He’s also younger, quicker and more athletic. The one challenge for Chandler will be to match the physicality of Bass and Dampier. If he can keep them from pushing him around, he’ll average 15 boards a game. New Orleans also needs to make sure they take advantage of this mismatch by looking to get Chandler involved on offense early. That should keep Dampier out of the lane, and it should also put The Damp Man in foul trouble a couple times. Foul trouble could play a huge part in the series, because after trading away DeSagana Diop in the Kidd deal the Mavs are painfully thin up front. The only other capable big is 6-8 Brandon Bass, and while he has played surprisingly well coming off the bench the last few months, Dallas does not want to count on him too much.

The other key matchup in the series will be at small forward, where Josh Howard and Peja Stojakovic will make life difficult for one another. Peja doesn’t get around too well any more, and he’s basically only out there to knock down the open jumpers created by the double teams and confusion caused by Paul and West’s two-man game. Still, he’s a dead-eye shooter who can light it up if you don’t give him respect. Josh Howard is the superior athlete and basketball player though, and he needs to assert himself over the defensively challenged Peja. If Howard can stick with the shooters outside on defense Dallas will be in good shape. On offense he should be very difficult for any Hornets to stop with that patented combination of slashing and mid-range shooting.

Wild Card

Playoff experience and playoff experiences. Nowitzki and Kidd have been there, and they’ve had some bad experiences. They’re going to be very, very meticulous. Dallas won’t let the Hornets take one of their home games, Kidd and Nowitzki simply won’t let it happen. I think the playoff pressure and lack of experience will cause one collapse for the Hornets in New Orleans, but it won’t be Chris Paul’s fault. Also, don’t count out the bitter taste left in the collective mouths of the Mavericks from their recent postseason forays – they’ll all be out for blood.