Empty the Bench

San Antonio Spurs: 56-26, 3rd seed
Phoenix Suns: 55-27, 6th seed
Head-to-Head: Phoenix won season series 3-1

Prelude

Another NBA playoffs, and another San Antonio team ambling in looking older and more vulnerable despite a great regular-season record and one of the best defenses in the league. Somehow the Spurs manage to fly under the hype radar every season, and each time it turns out they were only playing possum – pacing themselves and resting their aging core. Meanwhile, Phoenix is on a mission to prove The Steve Nash Era has been more than just flashy regular-season victories with no substance. This will be a contest of two of the most influential coaches in the NBA over the last decade. Gregg Popovich has been at the helm of the NBA’s most suffocating defense during a Spurs dynasty, while Mike D’Antoni’s offenses have revolutionized today’s NBA.

It should be one of the most heated and interesting series of the first round even though we’ve already seen these guys plenty and there aren’t a lot of young faces. Featuring the likes of Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, Damon Stoudamire, Jacque Vaughn, Grant Hill, Brian Skinner, this is the most geriatric matchup of the postseason. These guys can still get up and down the floor despite their age, but San Antonio will be trying to slow it down nearly every possession and Phoenix will try to prove they can finally play that way too.

After the Amare Stoudemire/Bruce Bowen debacles in recent years we should expect an extremely physical series, but also one of extremely solid, fundamental basketball from both teams. I wasn’t a big fan of the blockbuster trade to acquire Shaq, but it could prove to be a sage move as early as tomorrow night. He’ll be the enforcer and the anchor of the half-court sets. Shawn Marion was probably good for more regular-season wins, but the Suns brought in the big man in order to play with physical, down-tempo teams like the Spurs in the postseason. Pure run-and-gun had failed Steve Nash’s Suns too many times, and his age demanded something change. It took a few weeks to get acclimated to the desert, but Shaq has shown that he will help Phoenix with the likes of Tim Duncan and the Spurs, evidenced in their 96-79 win in San Antonio April 9th. Phoenix actually won three of the four regular season games, taking both contests in San Antonio, but the NBA playoffs are another animal.

ETB breaks down the Suns-spurs series and rolls out our predictions after the jump…

Backcourt

The key matchup here is obviously Steve Nash versus Tony Parker, even if Mike D’Antoni will try to keep Nash from guarding Parker as much as possible. Parker has had a down year but he’s still significantly quicker than Nash and he should be able to dominate him and penetrate at will. They will try to hide Nash on defense as much as possible, but with a number of shooters on the Spurs he’ll have to stay in front of Parker at least some of the time. Of course, when Nash has the ball he’s one of the most dangerous players in the league and he should make Parker look equally bad. Motivation won’t be a problem as this could be one of Nash’s last chances to prove he can win in the postseason.

This is also a duel of the two best sixth men in the NBA, Phoenix’s lightning-quick Leandro Barbosa and Manu Ginobili, San Antonio’s MVP. Ginobili has elevated his game this season, emerging as San Antonio’s leading scorer and best clutch performer. On defense he’s still very good, leading the team in steals and consistently drawing fouls on opponents. Barbosa has actually taken a step back this year, but he’s still more than capable of getting en fuego at any time and carrying the team for 8-10 minutes at a time.

Also of note is Raja Bell, the Suns’ Bruce Bowen: a defensive whiz and agitator on the perimeter and spot-up three-point shooter from the wing. He will be tasked with slowing down everybody from Parker to Ginobili to Michael Finley. Speaking of Finley, he will be the leader of a host of creaky vets in San Antonio’s backcourt that they will need to get contributions from, including the decrepit trio of Damon Stoudamire, Brent Barry, and Jacque Vaughn.

Frontcourt

All of the flashy matchups are on the perimeter, but the play of the big men will decide this series. You know what you’re going to get from Tim Duncan, a level effort on both ends of the floor with solid defense, strong rebounding, and consistent scoring. What Phoenix will get out of Shaq if they really push him is more of a mystery. I don’t think he’s still capable of dominating games, but if he can come close to the production of Tim Duncan Phoenix will win this series. They need him to be physical: keep Duncan out of the post, box out, and let the wings rebound, and do a passable job of defending the pick-and-roll. Getting 13-18 points a game from Shaq will be key, but his offense isn’t what they brought him in for. He’s there to be a presence. They have another big guy who’s pretty good at scoring.

Bruce Bowen Photo Credits: Icon SMI

Since Shawn Marion got shipped out of town Phoenix’ PF Amare Stoudemire has been an elite scorer. He will likely find the points harder to come by here, facing a combination of Duncan, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio “Oh Boy” Oberto. Stoudemire is also going to be extremely fired up after Bruce Bowen kicked his injured leg in last season’s playoffs and delivered a low-blow in their last meeting a few weeks ago. Look for a high-energy, high-scoring performance out of Amare. He’s going to need to help Shaq on the glass an on defense more than he has though, otherwise foul trouble and Tim Duncan will overwhelm the Suns.

Bowen will be Bowen: mean, physical and doing everything he can to get under Phoenix’s skin. He’ll likely be asked to guard Grant Hill often, who has been productive and remained surprisingly healthy for the Suns. It’s been a long time since Hill played in a series of this magnitude and I expect him to play inspired basketball. He’ll need to in order to keep the pressure off of the rest of the Suns offense. Phoenix also has to get 20-30 productive minutes out of Boris Diaw, who has been a major disappointment the last two seasons. If Diaw and Hill can both get up and down the floor and keep the ball moving the Suns offense will be too much to handle, even for the Spurs.

Wild Card

The Phoenix Fountain of Youth. In a physical, grueling slugfest can the aged trio of Grant Hill, Steve Nash and Shaquille O’Neal log heavy minutes and stay healthy and effective? They should all be playing their hearts out, but are the bodies able?

Predictions

Andrew: Phoenix Suns in six.
Brian: Phoenix Suns in seven.

More 2008 NBA Playoff Previews: Round 1

- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards

- Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic

- San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns

- New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks

- Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets

- Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers

- Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Tags: Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili , Shaquille O’Neal