Empty the Bench

Nobody expected the Charlotte Bobcats to compete with Detroit, Boston or Cleveland entering the season. But coming off a franchise-best 33-49 campaign with several promising young players and a new high-octane shooting guard, we did expect progress in the Q.C. That hasn’t been the case, as Charlotte enters the season’s final week with a 30-48 record and in danger of entering another offseason looking completely lost.

It takes time to build an NBA team from the ground up. Every expansion franchise struggles, and winning 33 games in just their third season was an accomplishment for the Bobcats. It marked a third consecutive year of improvement and suggested they weren’t far from competing for a lower seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs for the first time. But the lack of progress this year despite trading for a veteran scorer is disconcerting. Charlotte now stands with a 107-217 overall record, question marks at nearly every position and a long ways to go to be competitive.

Unlike some of the other also-rans, there is no player on this team that you can definitively say will be a perennial All Star. There is no Brandon Roy, Al Jefferson, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade or Rudy Gay. All of their key players are seemingly flawed in some way. Emeka Okafor is a beast and a hard worker, but his offensive game is poor and he can’t play away from the basket. Raymond Felton isn’t a pure point, and he’s not a very good shooter. Jason Richardson isn’t a leader, is prone to chucking it and leaves something to be desired on defense.

In the front office there are open power struggles and turmoil. The coaching staff is the lowest paid in the league, don’t command respect, don’t appear to have a plan and the new head coach’s job is in serious jeopardy. ETB checks in with the present and projects the future of this drifting franchise.

The Backcourt:

Keepers: Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll
The Jury is Out: Raymond Felton
Expendable: Derek Anderson, Earl Boykins, Adam Morrison

In the 2005 draft there were supposed to be three franchise point guards, all taken in succession within the first five picks. Deron Williams went first to Utah, then Chris Paul to New Orleans and finally Raymond Felton to Charlotte. The first two have proved to be as good as advertised, if not better, and turned their teams around. Felton has simply been a mediocre player on a bad team. Each year we expect him to take that step forward and become a leader, but it’s yet to happen. Queen City Hoops broke down Felton and his failure to live up to expectations this week. Essentially, he shoots like a scorer, but he doesn’t score like one.

More roster analysis and a detailed look at what needs to change after the jump…

Felton has been inefficient from the field every year with a career 39.5% FGs, and isn’t really showing improvement there. On the plus side, his 7.3 assists are a career high and mark the second consecutive year he’s been at or over 7.0 assists per game. That’s key, because more and more it seems like Felton is going to need to be a pure point guard to make it in this league, particularly if he’s going to play alongside the big contracts of Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace. That’s going to mean distributing even more and shooting even less, especially from long range where he’s only hitting 28.3% 3PTs this season. Felton has one more year guaranteed on his contract and the Bobcats need to use it to take a long, hard look at his future here, or lack thereof.

Afer Felton there are no real passers on this team, and they’ll need to shore that up. The offense can’t grind to a halt when he leaves the floor, especially since Raymond is prone to cold spells. Earl Boykins is only worthy of a fringe roster spot, and his obvious liabilities on defense and streaky play make him somebody that can’t be relied on, especially if this team isn’t planning to compete for a couple years.

Despite the loss of last year’s third-overall pick Adam Morrison for the season, the shooting guard/small forward spots have been a strength for Charlotte this season. The Bobcats traded the 8th pick in the 2007 draft, Brandon Wright, to Golden State for the services of perimeter threat and two-time Slam Dunk Contest champ Jason Richardson. After a quiet and injury-plagued 2006-07, Richardson has bounced back in a major way. He leads the Bobcats in scoring and total minutes this season and is putting up perhaps the finest statistical line of his career with 21.3 points per and leading the league with 233 threes on 44.1% FGs, 74.0% FTs and an impressive 40.2% 3PTs. Richardson is also playing well alongside Felton, and he’s taken to being the primary scorer by actually boosting his efficiency. That’s good, because he does what Felton doesn’t and he isn’t going anywhere. Richardson locked up to a big deal through the 2010-11 season.

Matt Carroll, also at the G/F slot, has actually proved a very capable backup this season. He’s relatively immobile, but he’s a straight shooter who can score and actually create his own shot at times. As odd as it seems, he looks potentially superior to Adam Morrison with a similar game, though less mobile. He’s scored 11.9 points per in his 15 stars (which will be available on any team that has Gerald Wallace), shooting a crazy 52.7% 3PTs in those games. He’s at 43.5% 3PTs on the season, so you know he can fill it up.

Hindsight is 20/20, but Adam Morrison had bust written all over him. He was just the latest in a string of bad draft picks for the Bobcats, but what is most frustrating is who he was taken ahead of with that third-overall pick. Brandon Roy would have been great, and Randy Foye would be a help, but Rudy Gay slipped through their fingers and is perhaps the one young player in the NBA who would fit best with this Bobcats team. His prolific scoring in all possible ways, athleticism, up-and-down game and ability to get a crowd on their feet with high-flying heroics are all lacking in Charlotte. I don’t expect much of anything from Morrison.

Emeka Okafor Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Up Front:

Keepers: Emeka Okafor, Jared Dudley
The Jury is Out: Gerald Wallace, Jermareo Davidson
Expendable: Nazr Mohammed, Sean May, Ryan Hollins, Othella Harrington

The Charlotte frontcourt has been defined by Emeka Okafor since the franchise’s first game on November 4, 2004. He dropped a double-double with 3 blocks that night, and he’s averaged a double-double in each year since. However, Okafor came into the NBA pretty much the same way he is today: a strong defensive player, a beast around the basket and on the glass, but a man with severe offensive limitations and little upside. He’s still a great player, and he has improved his shot selection and efficiency with a career-high 53.3% FGs this season. When Charlotte has managed to get Okafor quality looks, they’ve found success — he’s attempted double-digit shots in 22 of their 30 wins. But what you see is what you get with Okafor, and he needs to be paired up front with a scorer who is more mobile than he is. Sean May could have been that guy, but his once-promising NBA career is slowly swirling down the drain due to chronic injury.

The other major player in the Charlotte frontcourt is Gerald “Crash” Wallace. He’s one of the most athletic and exciting two-way players in the NBA, but also one of the most injury prone. I’m a huge fan of his game, but with another injury ending this season prematurely even I question his ability to be a team’s core player. He needs to be though, because Charlotte inked him to a guaranteed contract through the 2011-12 season with a player option for 2012-13.

Crash has always had a knack for blocked shots and steals, averaging over 2 steals a game for three straight years and between 0.9 and 2.1 blocks in that span. Gerald has also stepped up his offensive game in Charlotte, increasing his scoring and three-point shooting in each of his four years in there after being stolen from Sacramento in the expansion draft. He’s improved his assists for the last three years as well, averaging a career-high 3.5 this season. Gerald is a true difference maker, but he needs to tone down the reckless play and learn to stay healthy so he can stay on the floor to produce. Wallace has yet to play in more than 72 games in his career and seems to get nicked up every night.

After Okafor and Wallace, there simply isn’t much to speak of up front. Charlotte does have Nazr Mohammed, a better offensive player than Okafor, but he and Emeka can’t play at the same time because they’ll get beat by a fast, scoring frontcourt every possession. I’m also not convinced Nazr can be a consistent option; he’s shown flashes of strong play for years now, but never managed to play at a high level for an extended period. More intriguing to me is Jared Dudley, who has shown a lot of grit and passion with a strong feel for the game in his limited minutes. He’s not huge, but he plays long and rebounds well with scoring skills that could certainly develop.

I exchanged some e-mails on the state of the team with Brett Hainline of Queen City Hoops, who had this to say about the status of the frontcourt:

[Charlotte needs to find] someone who can guard big men who play on the perimeter, i.e. Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, etc. While every team struggles to guard players of their ability, the Bobcats are particularly poorly equipped to handle them. The Bobcats only employ two bigs who see regular minutes, Emeka and Nazr. And neither is comfortable on the perimeter, attempting to stay with the modern big men of the game. Through the draft or a free agent signing, they need to find someone who can slow players like this down.

On that same note: The team needs some more big players - if Sean May can come back and contribute, that would be a start - though it seems as wise as expecting to win the lottery to fund retirement. The team is one of the worst rebounding squads in the league - mainly due to the fact that Nazr and Emeka don’t play well together (101.0 points per 100 possessions, surrendering 109.8 - not good at all) - so they are reduced to playing one of the bigs along with some combination of Gerald, Jason, Jared, Matt, and Raymond. I played in intramural games in college where the lineups were almost that size.

What Needs to Be Done:

I also asked Brett for some analysis of what these Bobcats should do. In addition to his post this week on the Bobcats Four Players to Build On, he was kind enough to provide this wealth of great information, ideas and insight about what needs to happen:

*Find a shooting coach to work with Felton - he seems to have the potential to be a solid point guard in the league, he just shoots too much for someone who shoots so poorly. Allen Iverson is averaging a career best 1.377 points per shot this year…after having a career average of 1.224, so it is obviously something that can improve with practice (and better shot selection).

*Get that shooting coach to work with the entire team (well, aside from Carroll) on free throw shooting - a league worst 71%. That waste costs teams wins - just ask the Memphis Tigers.

*A true backup point guard would be nice to have. Bringing in Earl Boykins was an improvement over Jeff McInnis - sort of. The team has actually been slightly worse with Earl on the court than they were with Jeff - but they have wised up and given most of Jeff’s minutes to other players - like Jared and Matt.

*At this time, the Bobcats have 7 players who seem to be viable rotation guys on a good squad - Raymond Felton, Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, Gerald Wallace, Jared Dudley, Emeka Okafor, and Nazr Mohammed. While Sean May has shown flashes, there is no guarantee he will be healthy enough to contribute next season. As for Adam Morrison - after his rookie year, it is tough to project him as anything more than a fringe player - the team cannot assume he will be a vital component. Those 9 players are the only ones the Bobcats are committed to for next season (Emeka is a restricted free agent - and I will be…very unhappy should he somehow be allowed to walk away). Jermareo Davidson and Othella Harrington both have team options - keeping Jermareo to see what strides he might make seems prudent (and necessary for fielding a full roster), but Othella should be sent packing. With Nazr and Emeka already around, another slow big man is not a pressing need. The team would be saddled with a payroll of around $46M for that group, leaving them with plenty of room to sign their rookies and another rotation player. As long as it is not Jeff McInnis (or any other washed up former UNC player).

In addition to all of those points, which I fully agree with, I would add the following bullets:

*Get some leadership on the floor, on the sidelines and in the front office. There’s nobody on this team after Okafor who seems to have leadership skills and commands respect, and that includes Sam Vincent. There also isn’t much of a clear vision coming from up top.

*Specifically target an offensive post presence, somebody who can play alongside Emeka and compensate for his lack of offensive polish. Potential restricted free agent Elton Brand would be ideal.

*Decide if Raymond Felton is a PG or a SG, and go with it (or don’t). He’s playing too much combo guard, and not doing an ideal job of scoring or distributing. Unfortunately, if he is a shooting guard, then Jason Richardson has to play small forward and Gerald Wallace has to play power forward — that’s not ideal for either of them. If Felton isn’t a PG, then maybe he doesn’t fit.

*Figure out if they’re ever going to get anything from lottery picks Sean May and Adam Morrison. They shouldn’t count on much from either one, but Charlotte needs to decide if they expect them to be in the rotation next year so they can make roster moves accordingly.

*Put some resources into a quality scouting department. The mistakes in the draft cannot continue. Charlotte also appears to have a complete lack of international scouting, which is becoming more and more important for elite teams.

*Get a new logo and name. The logo looks like a high school team from the 90s, “Bobcats” doesn’t do anything for me and neither does the orange/blue/silver color scheme. I’m not a huge Rufus Lynx fan, either.

For looks at other NBA teams and the state of their franchise, click on over to read ETB’s takes on:

- The Minnesota Timberwolves
- The New Jersey Nets
- The Philadelphia 76ers
- The Portland Trail Blazers
- The Memphis Grizzlies

Tags: Charlotte Bobcats, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, Jason Richardson,