Empty the Bench

A sword of fire and an axe of cold,
Vision of the Sibyl has foretold,
Armies gather on the battle-plain,
All will fall and earth will die in flame.

The battle rages, but they fight in vain, When all is done it must begin again.

Allen Iverson said he and his Denver Nugget teammates started thinking about tonight’s mega-huge-massive game “right after the buzzer” of Tuesday night’s win over the Los Angeles Clippers. Baron Davis admitted it’s “the most important game of the season.” Nuggets head coach George Karl circled this game on his calendar almost 8 weeks ago, and we’ve been looking forward to it for awhile too.

Yes, it’s a big game all right.

And you don’t need to be a NBA League Pass subscriber to see it: tip-off is at 8pm on TNT, who by the way boast the best in-studio NBA crew, by far: Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, and Charles Barkley. (Analysis is top-notch, as are bits like this, this, and this.)

Allen Iverson and Baron Davis Photo Credit: Icon SMI

For those unaware of what’s at stake tonight when the Denver Nuggets face off against the Golden State Warriors amidst what’s bound to be a nutso scene at Oracle Arena, here’s a quick refresher: with four games left apiece, they’re tied for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot with 47-31 records. The Nuggets have taken two of the first three games in the regular-season series, so if the Warriors were to be vanquished this evening not only would they fall behind one full game in the standings, they’d also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker in the event of ending up with identical records come next Wednesday.

In spite of my prediction last week that they were done, the Dallas Mavericks (49-29) have won four of their past five games and look to be just about a lock for the 7th seed, barring an embarassing collapse over their final four (hey, we’ve seen more than a few Maverick choke jobs recently, so…). That means that one of these very good, if very flawed, combatants tonight will likely be lottery-bound.

Maybe that’s not fair, especially considering both would be vying for the 3rd seed in the Eastern Conference, but thems the breaks. Whoever wants it most will get it. Tonight is the first un-official game of the 2008 NBA Playoffs, and it promises to be a high-speed, high-scoring affair: Golden State and Denver are the league’s top two scoring teams, with each averaging about 110 points a night, and they also sport the NBA’s most generous defenses by each giving up over 106 points/per to opponents.

You really don’t want to miss this one.

More about tonight’s Denver-Golden State clash after the break…

The Warriors and Nuggets last met on March 29 in Denver, which got off on a bad note for Denver (A.I. knocked his broken finger) but ultimately ended in a 119-112 victory thanks in large part to Kenyon Martin’s season-high 30 points. They’ll need much more than the 4-20 FG, 14-point performance Iverson posted that night to have a chance at Oracle, where the Warriors have posted a solid 26-12 record and are clearly invigorated by the roaring hometown fans. Leads of any number are rarely safe against Golden State, but on the road they’re not as prone to stopping runs and coming back from behind as they are at home.

In addition to needing a vintage Big Game Iverson performance from the NBA’s third-leading scorer, it’ll be crucial for the Denver Nuggets to limit drives to the basket and to try and coax Stephen Jackson, Baron Davis, & Co. into taking outside shots. The Warriors lead the league in three-point shot attempts at 26.5/per, but are near the bottom of the pack in percentage made at 35%. Sure, when those bombs are falling the Warriors can forge a 20+ point lead as quickly as any team out there, but the law of averages says they won’t stay hot all night. Just as the longball approach can sink an opponent, it can also let them back in the game.

Nene Hilario and Andris Biedrins Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Of course, keeping Davis and especially Monta Ellis out of the lane is a lot to ask of the defensively challenged Nuggets. While Iverson is still adept at playing passing lanes—he’s tied with Kobe for 5th in the league in steals at 1.9/per—he’s a chronic gambler, undersized and can be beaten. Once you break past the first line of defense, the Nuggets have proven they’re not great at help defense, save for Marcus Camby.

That means Ellis could be in for yet another monster performance in a nationally televised game. Sunday afternoon against the New Orleans Hornets, he was the best player on the floor for Golden State, gliding his way to 35 points on 65% FG to go with 10 rebounds and 4 steals. Just 22 years old and in his third NBA season, Ellis has established himself as one of the brightest young talents in all of basketball, having surpassed his breakout sophomore season last year in averaging 20 points, 5 boards, 4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 53% FG in 2007-08. The secret has been out on him for some time now, but just in case you haven’t had a chance to catch him in action, make sure you do tonight. We have a feeling he’s going to go off.

Baron Davis recently deadpanned that his team’s defense “can improve” and that “it will improve as each game comes about.” It’ll help the Warriors’ cause a whole helluva lot if that happens tonight, as getting stops, causing turnovers, and scoring points off those turnovers should be something coach Don Nelson harps on in his pregame talks. The Nuggets have already proven they can beat the Warriors without Iverson putting up huge numbers, so it’ll take a team effort to ensure the supporting case (Martin, Camby, J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza) doesn’t pick up the slack if A.I. or Carmelo Anthony struggle from the field.

And, as I mentioned earlier this week, the Warriors need to take the ball to the hoop with abandon and get the Nuggets’ frontcourt in foul trouble. Against a poor defensive team like Denver, there’s no need to settle for outside jumpers and three-pointers. Take those shots in rhythm, but concentrate on getting Davis posted up on the blocks against the smaller Iverson or Anthony Carter, as well as convincing Stephen Jackson that his best chance for offensive success is to go right at Anthony, who’s not exactly a great defender.

No matter which team emerges victorious, both will still have their work cut out for them; the loser just moreso. Denver has one more (tough) road game remaining, Saturday at Utah, before closing out the season with home games against the Rockets and Grizzlies. Golden State has a somewhat easier schedule, welcoming the 23-55 LA Clippers to Oaktown on Saturday, traveling to Phoenix on Monday, and finishing it out with Seattle at home next Wednesday. There’ll still be a lot to be determined after tonight, but it’s still a very, very big one.

Tags: Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Stephen Jackson