Empty the Bench

Stephen Jackson Photo Credit: The Daily Review/ZUMA Press/Icon SMI

Welcome to the Western Conference Regular-Season Squeeze, where every game matters over these next 16 days whether you’re currently at the top of the playoff standings or near the bottom. There’s no room for a losing streak, an injury to a key player, a mental lapse late in a close game, or an out-and-out stinker. I apologize for trotting out this tired cliche, but I have no choice: it’s win or go home.

And this is all especially true for the Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, and Dallas Mavericks. These three teams would by now have a postseason berth locked up in the East and likely limiting their starters’ minutes like the Celtics and Pistons. In the West, however, each is faced with a series of must-win games and the reality that they could be the team who’s lottery-bound come April 16. In our infinite wisdom and aided by that magical crystal ball that’s been shrouded in a fine linen cloth and locked up in ETB’s dark, dank cellar since football season, we take an incredibly educated guess as to how it’ll all unfold.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 45-28
Games Remaining: 5 road, 4 home
Key Games: @ DAL, @ NO, vs. DEN

Outlook: Of these three worthy combatants, Nellie’s Warriors are the squad we’re pulling for most. They’re fun to watch, on a good night they can beat anybody in the NBA, and they have Baron Davis. But that 0-6 start to the season when Stephen Jackson was suspended is really coming back to haunt them, as many predicted it would. If they’d just been able to split those games we could be talking about the Warriors in terms of vying for the West’s top seed, not it’s 7th or 8th.

Fortunately for Golden State they get a break in the schedule after four straight road games this week, playing four of their last five at wild Oracle Arena. First things first, however—they need to take care of business during this difficult stretch that includes not-so-happy visits to San Antonio, Dallas, and New Orleans. They’ll also need to be wary of the trap game Friday night in Memphis. All things considered, this team would likely come home satisfied, if not pleased, with a split… especially if one of the wins came tomorrow night over Dallas. If they can pull off a 2-2 record this week, the Warriors will essentially control their own postseason destiny with home games against the Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, and SuperSonics—all very winnable games—surrounding an April 14 trip to Phoenix.

Prediction: They will split this week, then finish out by winning three of their final four home games (that one against Sactown screams “upset”) along with a road win over Phoenix. The Warriors squeeze ahead of Denver in a tie-breaker and take the 7th seed.

Outlook and predictions for the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks after the break…

Denver Nuggets

Record: 45-29
Games Remaining: 4 road, 4 home
Key Games: vs. PHO, vs. HOU, @ GS, @ UTA

Outlook: That loss Monday night in Phoenix must have felt like being smacked in the gut with an oversized hammer. Leading for most of the game, and by as many as 22 points, the Nuggets simply stopped making shots as the Suns starting hitting them and eventually boarded the team plane 132-117 losers. They’ll get their chance to enact revenge tonight as the back-to-back series shifts to the Mile High City, but with just eight games remaining on the regular-season schedule, “revenge” is like a dirty penny laying on the train tracks: you don’t need it. The Nuggets just need to win, period.

With the loss, Denver fell 0.5 games back on the Warriors for the final playoff spot in the West. (Nevermind that in the East they’d be fighting for the 3rd seed.) Indeed, all that six-game winning streak did for them was get them back in the playoff conversation. The road to actually make it is still a long one, one that will likely stretch all the way until their final game on April 16 against the Grizzlies. After their two home games this week against Phoenix and Sacramento, the Nuggets pack their bags for four road games next week—two of which are against the NBA’s better home teams (the Warriors and Jazz). Circle your calendars for that April 10 contest on TNT against the Warriors, it’s going to be “bangin’.”

Prediction: After a narrow win tonight over Phoenix, the Nuggets close out the season 4-3 over their final seven. That’s good enough for the eighth seed.

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 46-28
Games Remaining: 4 road, 4 home
Key Games: vs. GS, @ LAL, @ PHO, vs. UTA, vs. NO

Outlook: I hate to say it, Dallas Mavericks, but we told you so. They seem dejected, demoralized, and disorganized. The Jason Kidd Experiment, the one in which the team mortgaged its short- and long-term future for, hasn’t worked out as planned with the Mavs still trying to beat an above-.500 team since his arrival. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Dirk Diggler suffered a knee and ankle injury on March 23rd that has kept him out of the lineup for the past four games (the team has won two of them—both against those mighty LA Clippers). Reports are circulating that he could be ready to go for tomorrow night’s super-mega-massive clash with the Warriors, but if does indeed play he won’t be at full strength and could be risking further injury. Not a good situation.

The thing to remember is that Mark Cuban’s Mavs hadn’t beaten a good team even with Mr. Diggler healthy, a fact that does not bode well for them over these next 2 weeks and change. Of these three franchises, Dallas clearly has the toughest schedule, with tough road games against the Lakers, Suns, and Trail Blazers and home games against the Warriors (tomorrow), Jazz, and Hornets. The only real break is two gimmes against the Sonics.

Prediction: Perhaps they should rename this franchise the Dallas Disappointment. It started with an inexplicable collapse in the 2006 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat, was followed by a somewhat-improbable loss in the first round last year against the 8th-seeded Warriors, and this year will be topped off by missing out on the playoffs entirely. There’s simply too many schedule obstacles, not enough firepower, and a whole lot of uncertainty about Dirk’s health, not to mention his supporting cast. Stick a fork in ‘em, they’re done.