Empty the Bench

Since the 2005 season the Dallas Mavericks have been defined by two moves: Steve Nash leaving for Phoenix as a free agent prior to the 2004-05 season and the promotion of Avery Johnson to head coach on March 19, 2005. When Avery Johnson took over for Don Nelson he was tasked with taking a run-and-gun powerhouse and perennial also-ran and instilling the requisite defensive mindset and prowess required to succeed in the NBA playoffs. There was great early success, with Johnson named the 2006 Coach of the Year the Mavs advancing to the NBA Finals that season. They could easily have won a title if not for an internal collapse and the transcendent play of Dwyane Wade that led to four consecutive losses in those Finals.

Now a few years further into this project the Mavericks looks like a team that has completely lost their identity. They’re trying to be a good defensive and offensive team, but finding no balance and doing neither exceptionally well. After winning the top seed in the west last season they were embarrassed by former coach Don Nelson and his eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, one of the biggest upsets in league history. Dallas was completely lost against the running Warriors, seemingly unable to remember what it was like to score 110 points in a game. That’s been an ongoing problem. They aren’t Golden State or Phoenix, they aren’t San Antonio or Boston, and they’re getting beat by all of them. Dallas has lost nine consecutive games against teams with a winning record — teams that have a clear identity.

Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris Photo Credit: Icon SMI

That trend continued on Sunday with Dallas falling 88-81 to the San Antonio Spurs, slipping even further from the West’s elite. Dallas actually led by four points at halftime and ten in the third quarter, but they still looked lost and indecisive all game. The Mavs played great defense early, and in the first half they held Tim Duncan to 1-10 shooting and the Spurs as a team to just 36 points, yet Dallas was only able to muster a four-point lead at halftime. Then they fell apart in the third in the midst of a 19-point San Antonio run. The Mavs looked like an aging squad, unable to muster any offense when they needed it, and that was before tragedy struck. In the third quarter Dirk Nowitzki went up for a block, came down awkwardly and had his leg rolled on in ugly fashion. My initial reaction was that his season, and thus that of the Mavericks, was over. Early word is that Dallas is hoping Dirk will only be out two weeks, but in the insanely competitive West that could still spell doom for Dallas’s playoff chances.

More on how Dallas got into this mess after the jump…

Within minutes of Dirk going down we saw the team completely lose its cool with a series of heated displays and technical fouls on Avery Johnson and Jerry Stackhouse. They came unraveled from top to bottom. If Dirk Nowitzki’s leg injury turns out to be serious, then Sunday will be called the day Dallas’s season died. Although that day could have come weeks ago, before the trading deadline when they dealt gifted and defensive-minded point Devin Harris, backup center Diop and two first-round picks for aging superstar Jason Kidd. At one point in the fourth quarter Jason Kidd was on the bench because Dallas needed offense. Say what?

Let’s rewind for a second. Before the trade deadline, sensing their status as a relevant title contender in jeopardy, Dallas panicked and traded their most promising young player in Devin Harris for an aging veteran with significant playoff experience. It was a reactionary move to the Los Angeles Lakers acquisition of Pau Gasol, and it hasn’t worked out very well. Kidd was supposed to lead the Dallas offense again, to get them fast-breaking again. And this guy they mortgaged their future for was the one sitting on the bench with single-digit scoring. This was the guy they brought in to bring veteran leadership in playoff-type games. If he can’t be on the floor in key situations, then what is he there for?

Hindsight is always 20-20, but we’ve never been a fan of the move. We had this to say on the day before the Kidd trade was made official:

Over the next three seasons, however, Harris will have more value. He’s one of the best young points in the league, and while it took a few years, he emerged as an impact player this season. He’s quick, unselfish and efficient on offense. On defense, Harris is rangy and has the tools to be among the best defensive PGs in the NBA – and he may already be better than Kidd on that end of the floor. As a Dallas fan, unless I was convinced that Jason Kidd would instantly transform the team into an elite title contender before his contract expires at the end of next season, a Harris-for-Kidd swap alone would give me pause.

But it wasn’t just a Harris-for-Kidd swap, Dallas sent a good defensive backup center with an expiring contract and two first-round picks for Kidd.

It’s now a very real possibility that Dallas will fall out of the playoffs altogether, weeks after they made that trade that was supposed to propel them back into title-contender status. They have one more year on this Jason Kidd experiment, and after giving up their first-round picks the next two seasons, that’s the shelf life on this team. If they can’t get it together for the remainder of this season or, seemingly less likely, in the next then we’re looking at a rebuilding team and a disgruntled franchise player in Dirk Nowitzki.

The Mavericks have lost all eight of their games against teams with winning records since dealing for Kidd. It would be a great irony if the deal they gave up their first-round pick next season for is the one that makes it a lottery pick. That is a very real possibility out West, where a team with a 50-win record will likely miss the playoffs. Dallas has fallen to the seventh seed out West, and with a big win for Denver on Sunday as well, they stand just two games ahead of those ninth-seeded Nuggets.

Since the trade Jason Kidd has averaged 9.6 assists and 2.3 steals, both solid totals. But he’s also put up just 8.5 points and 1 three-pointer on meager shooting averages of 41.9% FGs and 69.6% FTs. He managed just 7 points and 5 assists on 3-for-10 shooting in the crucial matchup at home against San Antonio today. Meanwhile, since heading to New Jersey Devin Harris is playing better defense than Kidd and averaging 16.1 points, 6.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 three-pointer on 41.6% FGs and 80.7% FTs. Those lines aren’t too far apart, but Harris has been the better player. Jason Kidd is 35-years-old and clearly on the downside of his career, while Harris is 25-year-old with the prime of his career just ahead.

As Jeff Van Gundy stated in the closing moments, “Going forward for the Mavericks, where are they going to do to generate enough points against a quality team?” I have no idea. I do know it’s not coming from Kidd right now. If Dirk is only out for two weeks then Dallas could stay in the playoff picture, but they no longer look like any kind of title contender even in that best-case scenario. If they lose in the first round this year, nobody will be shocked.

Tags: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks, Devin Harris