Empty the Bench

As the season winds down, ETB will be taking a look at the state of a number of non-contenders. We’ll talk about what’s going right, what’s not, discuss their key personnel, look at team needs and size up their future.

Today: The Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are on the outside looking in, relative to both the Western Conference playoff picture as well as how they’ve chosen to replenish their in-flux roster with young talent. Since joining the league in 1995 as the Vancouver Grizzlies, this franchise has struggled to establish itself as one that should be taken seriously and one that’s attractive to play for. While based in the Great White North, the Grizz never won more than 23 games in any given season, and — as the Toronto Raptors have learned over the years — were behind the eightball when it came to recruiting free agents because of the unfavorable exchange rate between the Canadian and American dollars (not such a problem these days, though).

Then, after ownership of the Grizzlies changed hands and a promise to keep the franchise in Vancouver went unfulfilled, the wayward Grizz moved Down South to sweaty Memphis, TN, with two highly touted draft picks named Pau Gasol and Shane Battier in tow. Two years later, they posted their first ever winning record and advanced to the playoffs… but drew the San Antonio Spurs and were swept in the first round. Winning more games than losing them, clinching a playoff berth, then getting broomed out of the playoffs would happen the following two seasons, and then last year the Grizz reverted back to their old losing ways, posting a disheartening 22-60 record that included three head coaches (Mike Fratello, Tony Barone, Jr., and Marc Iavaroni), one gimpy superstar (Gasol), and a complete overhaul of the front office.

Rebuilding was underway, and you’re seeing its early, ugly results this season: a 15-48 record and losers of 19 of the past 22 games.

To me, when I look at the current version of the Memphis Grizzlies, I see last year’s Boston Celtics… but I don’t see a Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett magically landing in GM Chris Wallace’s lap this summer, although ironically enough Wallace came to Memphis via Boston. Gasol was traded for future cap relief, a prospect, and draft picks. Moving the perpetually bitchy Gasol was the right move, but it’s one that’s been roundly criticized in terms of what Memphis got in return. (Keep in mind that many of these criticisms have come from coaches of rival teams who’d have no such problem with the trade terms if it was their team that landed Gasol.)

This season has essentially been a wash, and the embarassing lack of attendance proves that Grizzlie fans feel the same way. Sure, with no priority placed on winning games now, there’s been ample opportunity for franchise cornerstone Rudy Gay to work on his game and for promising youngsters like Juan Carlos Navarro, Kyle Lowry, Darko Milicic, and Mike Conley, Jr. to get more minutes than they would on a competitive team. So that’s one possible positive, but how much are these guys really learning and really developing when they lose night in, night out, and often in embarassing fashion?

There is hope, however, for this franchise that has yet to win a single playoff game in its 13-year history. Their perimeter is stacked with youngsters who could become key building blocks towards a brighter future. Rudy Gay is a proven winner from his college days and has all the makings of a superstar. They currently sport the NBA’s second-lowest payroll. At least for the moment, it seems they’ve settled on Iavaroni and the system he’s imported from Phoenix. And there’s more lottery-pick talent on its way in June, not to mention a second first-rounder via the Lakers from the Gasol trade.

A look at the Memphis Grizzlies’ roster, including who are keepers and who are expendable, after the break…

Look to the Perimeter

There are more holes in the Memphis Grizzlies roster top to bottom than a block of Swiss cheese, but with any luck the top of the team’s depth chart at both guard positions has already been taken care of. It starts with highly regarded, 6-1 Mike Conley, Jr., who has experienced the usual ups and downs most rookies do during their freshman season. Various injuries have stunted his minutes, and for the most part his shot has been off (he’s shooting 43% on the season). But there have been flashes: scoring 20 points for the first time in his young career on January 15 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. His first double-double when he dropped 10 points and 10 assists on the Chicago Bulls less than a week later. Conley’s lack of size will always be a problem, but his quickness and smarts are significant assets in his favor. He wasn’t the fourth-overall pick in last June’s entry draft for nothing.

Veteran long-range shooter Mike Miller has been the starter at SG this season, but his name popped up in various trade rumors before the deadline passed, and there’s a very good chance he and the $18.75 million he’s owed over the next two years will be moved this summer. There are plenty of hopeful contenders who could use a guy averaging over 16 points, 50% FG, and 2 three-pointers a night. He’s had such a good season, in fact, that some have (half-heartedly) made a case for him as this year’s MVP.

Miller is the lone veteran of consequence employed by the Grizzlies, and the fact that he has three younger, cheaper guys hungry for minutes below him on the depth chart is another reason management may deem him expendable. Juan Carlos Navarro represented the Grizz at this year’s Rookie-Sophomore Challenge during All-Star weekend, and though he wept with sorrow when his friend and countryman Gasol was traded to the Lakers, he has recently expressed his desire to sign a long-term deal with Memphis and hopefully be a part of the solution. Navarro has revealed himself as a prolific long-range chucker in his rookie season, averaging about 5 three-point attempts/per (but only hitting them at a 36% clip), and his man defense is, well, let’s just say it’s a work in progress. When he’s hot, the 6-3 Spainard can put points up in a hurry: he’s scored 20+ points nine times so far. He’s extremely streaky, though, as most of his double-digit scoring nights have come during consecutive 2-3 game spells. Navarro is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and it’ll be interesting to see if he returns to Memphis or is allowed to walk.

Mike Conley Jr. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

The arrival of 6-5, 21-year-old Javaris Crittenton via the Gasol trade is one reason why Navarro’s (and Miller’s) status with Memphis is up in the air. Drafted 19th overall last summer by the Lakers, Crittenton was considered an extremely raw prospect with all kinds of upside when he entered the league, and having watched him in action a few times since coming to Memphis that scouting report seems accurate. He does something special nearly every time he steps on the court… but then doesn’t follow it up. Crittenton is locked up for the forseeable future at a reasonable number, and should be given every chance this summer and during training camp to carve out a more significant role in Memphis’ rotation next year.

A lot of people think second-year PG Kyle Lowry can do some special things in this league, but I think GM Wallace should capitalize on the generally high marks Lowry receives and dangle him this summer, perhaps as part of a package that includes Miller. At just 6-0, the Grizzlies simply cannot role with pint-sized starting and backup PGs, as Conley is just one inch taller. The other swingman on the roster, Casey Jacobsen, is filler and unlikely to be resigned during the offseason.

The Big Man Conundrum

A big, gaping hole was dug in the middle of Memphis’ frontcourt as soon as Pau Gasol was sent to Los Angeles. The “big man” they received as part of the deal, Kwame Brown, amounts to nothing more than a big, fat, expiring contract this summer (and I wonder if Brown will find a new NBA home as an unrestricted free agent; he’ll most certainly be taking a massive paycut from his current $9 million salary if he does). Jason Collins arrived via New Jersey in a trade involving Stromile Swift, and he, too, is a big stiff with no future in Memphis save for his expiring deal, which has one season and $6.2 million remaining. I’d be shocked if he’s not either bought out or traded this summer.

And then, of course, there’s Brian Cardinal, who has played in all of 87 games combined over the past three seasons, a span in which he’s averaged 3.9 points and 2 boards per 11 minutes. Rock-solid contributions from Mr. Cardinal there, proving he’s certainly worthy of the $5.8 million he’s making this season and the $13 million he’ll make the next two. Massive kudos to GM Wallace if he can figure out a way to wriggle out of this laughable deal.

Subtract Brown, Collins, Cardinal, and Jacobsen, as well as little-used reserve Andre Brown, and what’s left is an incredibly thin frontcourt that’ll need replenishing a-plenty through the draft and free agency. No, seriously: Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic, and Hakim Warrick are literally the only real building blocks with size on the current roster that can be considered keepers… and calling Milicic (and perhaps even Warrick) “keepers” is a stretch.

We’re big fans of Rudy Gay here at ETB. He’s a pure scorer with all kinds of natural athleticism, and in his second season he’s upped his scoring, rebounding, field-goal and free-throw shooting, and steals, as well as his long-ball shooting. He won’t turn 22-years-old until August, and is certainly the kind of player Memphis can build around and expect to only get better. The one thing Gay must improve upon is his passing: he’s averaged less than 2 assists/per in both of his NBA campaigns. In fact, he’s turning it over more (2.3 turns/per) than he’s setting up teammates, period (1.8 assists/per this year). That negative assist-to-turnover ratio is simply unacceptable for a guy with his unique skill set.

After seeing his role diminished in the early going this year, third-year forward Hakim Warrick has been in and out of the starting lineup since the Gasol trade but in general seen a nice uptick in minutes. We recently wrote about Warrick in some detail here, so I’m going to paraphrase a few of our thoughts: “Athleticism has never been a problem for Warrick, but consistency and defense have. The team needs to figure out if he’s capable of playing a large role in their long-term plans, and at the very least he’ll pair with Rudy Gay to form one of the league’s quickest and potentially dynamic starting SF/PF tandems for the rest of the season.” He should be back next season, but will be a restricted free agent in the summer of ‘09.

That brings us to dear old Darko Milicic — still just 22-years-old in his fifth NBA season — who signed a three-year, $21 million pact last summer. It was a low-risk, high-reward investment on Memphis’ part considering his age and the promise he flashed last season with the Magic, but overall his first year with the Grizz has to be considered somewhat of a disappointment. That’s not to say he’s been awful or hasn’t had some really strong efforts; in fact, right now he’s in the midst of perhaps his strongest string of games to date. Since March 1, the potty-mouthed seven-footer has averaged 14 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 58% FG, though one of his biggest strengths, blocking shots, hasn’t been on display as much (he has just 4 in five games). On the season, Milicic is averaging 1.7 blocks/per to go with 7.2 points and 6.1 boards.

Darko Milicic Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Darko is an easy target, one that I’ve admittedly taken my fair share of potshots at (hey, I’m a Pistons fan, what do you expect?). He’s still a work in progress, and seems to have the physical tools requisite of a center capable of one day averaging a low double-double and blocking 2 shots a game. If he can become that kind of guy before his current deal expires, I’d expect Memphis to re-up him given their current lack of size. But honestly, my doubts about Darko, like many other’s, lie in his work ethic, his maturity, and his personal drive. As the second-overall pick in the ‘03 draft, he’s already rich. He could walk away from the NBA a millionaire many, many times over and never have to work another day of his life (assuming he’s made wise investments…). Does he have the motivation to make good on his God-given talents? And just as importantly: is he a winner?

One way or the other, a big overhaul of the current Memphis Grizzlies roster will begin this summer. Some of the dead weight mentioned above will be moved or bought out, tradeable assets will be dangled, and at least two first-round picks will be introduced. The goal, of course, is for these moves to finally put this franchise in a position to not only make the playoffs, but actually win in the playoffs, something that’s yet to happen. Best of luck, GM Wallace — you have your work cut out for you.

Our favorite Memphis Grizzlies blog, 3 Shades of Blue, also wrote a great rundown of the state of the Grizzlies recently. Give it a read here, and between this article and that one you’ll be able to talk more intelligently about the Grizz than anyone else at your next cocktail party. If anyone will listen.

For looks at other NBA teams and the state of their franchise, click on over to read ETB’s takes on:

- The Minnesota Timberwolves
- The New Jersey Nets
- The Philadelphia 76ers
- The Portland Trail Blazers

Tags: Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies, Darko Milicic, Mike Conley