Empty the Bench

Saturday night’s deflating 105-102 loss at Golden State was painfully emblematic of the Sacramento Kings’ season thus far: solid effort, sloppy execution down the stretch, and a narrow loss. It’s a story first-year coach Reggie Theus is undoubtedly sick of seeing unfold, and one their dedicated, frustrated fanbase could certainly do without as well.

Sacto now has a 23-26 record after going 6-4 in their last 10. A closer look, however, reveals that the Kings–who’ve largely been an afterthought in the Western Conference for a few years now–have come very, very close to posting a winning record. Of their 26 losses, 11 of them have been decided by 7 points or less. Let’s say the Kings had reversed just four of those narrow defeats into narrow victories; they’d be flipped to 27-22, which would be good enough for them to be in the thick of a realistic hunt for the postseason.

But, of course, they didn’t win those games. And though they’ll tell you differently, they are not harboring any realistic shot at the playoffs this year.

Sacto’s offense is what’s keeping them respectable and highly competitive. As a team, the Kings are 8th in the NBA in scoring (100.6), 9th in three-point shooting (37%), and 5th in free-throw shooting (79.1%). They clearly have some offensive firepower, and thank God for that because their defense and rebounding have been very poor. At 40 boards/per, only the pitiable Miami Heat are worse when it comes to hitting the glass. They’re also giving up 102.5 points a night (23rd overall) and allowing opponents to shoot 46% (also 23rd). Obviously there’s room for vast improvement there, and if the rumors about a possible Ron Artest trade come to pass, they’ll be diced up like soft Roma tomatoes even further with their best defensive player gone.

And therein lies the problem with this incarnation of the Kings–with vets like Ron Artest and Mike Bibby in the lurch (will they be traded? If so, when?), this team is struggling to find its identity. Mike Bibby has traditionally been the clutch shooter, the guy they look to when they need a bucket, but that seems to have changed. While Bibby still has better range than Kevin Martin, K-Mart is now the team’s premier scorer and has proven he can step up in crunch time. Against the Warriors, neither was called upon to be the hero. Reggie Theus called a time out with the game clock ticking away and drew up a play designed to get Artest open beyond the arc for the potentially game-tying shot. His last-second hoist clanged off the back of the rim.

Figuring out what to do with Bibby and Artest has been a monkey on Sacramento’s back all season, and it’s one they should be adamantly working towards removing. The Kings have two solid, tradeable assets in those two vets, but in both cases I only see their value decreasing as time wears on. Artest has openly pontificated about life after Sacramento; Bibby just doesn’t seem all that thrilled with his situation, and he was really dogging it at times on defense against Golden State. Neither is in it for the long haul with Sacto, and now is the time to move both of them. I’m not sure what they can get in return, but the initial asking price shouldn’t exceed–or fall below–first-round draft picks and/or young big-men prospects.

More on the Sacramento Kings, including their frontcourt troubles, after the break…

With Artest missing time for various reasons and Bibby nursing a hand injury, backups John Salmons and Beno Udrih flourished and proved they’re capable of handling big minutes. Salmons, especially, has been impressive in this his fifth NBA season out of Miami, FL. Previously known mostly as a solid role player whose strength lies in his defense, Salmons’ 15.1 points, 4.5 boards, 1.2 steals, 51% FG, and 33:47 minutes/per are all easily career highs. The athleticism and energy he brings to the floor are huge for this team, but once Artest returned to the lineup his development became stunted (and Ron-Ron agrees).

The same goes with Udrih. Signed as a free agent in a move that received very little attention, the 25-year-old Yugoslavian stepped right in and ran the team smoothly with Bibby out. Like Salmons, he’s enjoying a career year, averaging 12.2 points, 4 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1 three-pointer. His minutes have fallen off a cliff, however, since Bibby returned on January 16, and though you can’t expect Bibby to just waltz onto the floor and be in midseason form after missing so much time, he really hasn’t been a dramatic improvement over Udrih. It just feels like Bibby’s time to move on, and financially it makes a lot of sense to do it.

With the future at point guard up in the air, at least the Kings know what they have in shooting guard Kevin Martin, one of the league’s better pure scorers and last year’s runner-up in voting for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. He has upped his scoring to 23.3/per, which is good for 7th in the league, and is also averaging a career-best 2 three-pointers. I’m still not convinced, however, that he’s the kind of player you can build around as the centerpiece of the franchise. K-Mart is a lot like Milwaukee’s Michael Redd: an elite scorer who doesn’t necessarily make his teammates better players. He averages less than 2 assists a night and isn’t a significant source of rebounds, steals, or blocks. I think Martin will continue to improve and should get some of those intangible stats up in time, but he needs to be surrounded by playmakers that will make it difficult for opposing teams to double team him.

But while the team’s backcourt situation is relatively strong overall, the frontcourt is a whole other story. Starting center Brad Miller is having one of the finest overall seasons of his career (14.5 points, 9.7 boards, 3.6 assists, 1 steal, 1 block), but turns 32-years-old in April. He also has a significant history of injuries, having never been healthy enough to suit up in all 82 games at any point of his 10-year career. Big men do, however, tend to have a long shelf life if they stay in good shape and have skills, as Miller does, that compensate for a decline in quickness.

The seven-footer is signed through 2009/10 season at a relatively reasonable number (he’ll make about $23.5 million over the next two years). Can the Kings make the necessary roster tweaks to become legitimate contenders before Miller’s inevitable decline? And if not, should they give thought to also trading him while his value is probably as high as it’ll ever be? Reliable, versatile centers like Miller are always in demand, so it’d be interesting to see what the Kings could get for him. I think it’d take one helluva offer for the Kings to move him, and I’m not necessarily advocating them doing it. It is, however, something to think about.

That brings us to Miller’s backup, rookie seven-footer Spencer Hawes. Drafted 10th overall in last June’s entry draft, Hawes played just one season at Washington before turning pro, finishing his brief collegiate career with per-game averages of 14.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.74 blocks. He won’t turn 20-years-old until April, and is only averaging about 8 minutes a game so far. Clearly, Kings brass does not expect him to contribute this season, or perhaps even next, but coming out of college Hawes was generally considered the next-best true center prospect behind Greg Oden.

The team thinks he has the potential to eventually blossom into a productive starter, but when I look at Hawes I see Darko Jr. I know it’s a little unfair to associate this youngster with The Great Yugoslavian Bust, but the parallels on everything from his on-court body language to his moves in the post are too hard to ignore. Only time will tell if the politically outspoken Hawes (he is/was a vocal Mitt Romney supporter) can eventually replace Miller in the middle, but I have my doubts.

It gets considerably murkier after Miller and Hawes. Mikki Moore was signed to a three-year, $18 million deal in the offseason, and though he should never be considered a legitimate starter candidate, to his credit he has not let his surprising payday get to his head. He still hustles, still rebounds, and still thinks he’s better than he actually is.

Outside of seldom-used Justin Williams, that’s about it. The Kings have desperately tried to move Kenny Thomas and his inflated contract (over $16 million and 2 years left after this season), while Shareef Abdur-Rahim, whose career has been derailed by injuries and could retire, is also still on the books for another 2 years and $12.8 million after this season’s conclusion.

Of the Kings’ nine games in April, all but one of them (April 3 vs. the Clippers) are against Western Conference teams that figure to be battling for a playoff berth and jockeying for postseason seeding. As I mentioned before, Sacramento is going to have a say in who makes it in and in what slot. If they had just been able to pull out some of those narrow defeats, that season-ending stretch just might have been less about playing a spoiler role, and more about propeling themselves into the postseason.

It’s a bitch playing in the West for teams like the Sacramento Kings, but that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. One way or the other, they have their work cut out for them if they hope to get over the hump soon.