Empty the Bench

Tom Brady Photo Credit: Robert E. Klein/Icon SMI

- With the fantasy playoffs underway, the theme of the week was good teams getting knocked off after their stud quarterback laid an egg. Squads that were counting on the usually consistent Tom Brady (0 TDs), Peyton Manning (1 TD), Tony Romo (0 TDs), Derek Anderson (0 TDs), and, to a lesser extent, Carson Palmer (1 TD) got left high and dry. Those are five of the top eight quarterbacks in ETB’s scoring format this year, and yet they combined for a total of 2 TDs and 5 INTs. What’s worse, nobody could have seen this coming as all of their matchups (vs. NYJ, @ OAK, vs. PHI, vs. BUF, and @ SF, respectively) looked like cakewalks just a week ago. That’s fantasy football. Hey, everybody knew that Vince Young (2 TDs, 0 INTs) and Brodie Croyle (2 TDs, 2 INTs) would each outperform all those studs combined, right?

Indeed, if you were counting on Brady, Palmer or Manning to carry your fantasy team this week, there’s a good chance you’re up shit’s creek with a turd for a paddle. All three were consensus top-four QBs coming into the season, but inclimate weather sunk Brady in New England (14-27, 120 yards, 1 INT), a prolonged slump carried over into San Francisco for Palmer (19-31, 251 yards, 1 TD), and Manning was just plain average on the road in Oakland (22-39, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). These three will again all draw very favorable matchups on paper in Fantasy Championship Week, but at least one of them—Palmer—has to be considered a risky start regardless of the opponent.

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We’re all about the ballsy predictions here at ETB. We’re always analyzing and second-guessing other “expert” picks, but we’ll put our balls on the table, too. Crystal balls. Yes, you may see them. Look with your eyes, not with your hands though. Only we can harness the power of these magical balls. In the days leading up to Sunday’s NFL action, we both gaze into the void, transcend this earthly plane, feel the force and post the daring predictions that present themselves.

They’re probably all going to come true, but one or two of them may not. You had better believe we’ll be bragging about them when we nail it. Repeatedly. In your fat, supple face. And if/when we miss, it’ll be like it never happened. You’ll forget about it. Hey, look at me–you will forget about our misses.

It’s the latest edition of ETB’s NFL Crystal Ball, where we never pull a Homer Simpson.

Andrew’s Predictions:

1. It’s going to be an old-fashioned shootout in the Big Easy this weekend. Without Adrian Wilson, the Cards secondary got torn to ribbons by Seattle last week, giving up 272 yards and 4 TDs. Drew Brees is on fire and should have no trouble finding the endzone and racking up yards. On the other side, Jason David and the Saints secondary haven’t been able to stop anybody all year and Arizona will throw all game after getting down early. The Saints and Cardinals combine for 700 yards passing and 6 passing TDs.

2. We’ve been begging and pleading for Jerious Norwood to get more involved in the Atlanta Falcons gameplan for almost two years now. He led the NFL with 6.4 YPC last season, and yet only got 99 carries. With Warrick Dunn aging and no longer effective, we figured it would change this year and yet Norwood hasn’t received double-digit carries in any game this season. There’s no way new Atlanta HC Emmitt Thomas can be as stubborn as Bobby Petrino, and Norwood get 15 carries and finishes with over 100 total yards for the third time this year.

3. We were all about the Cincinnati Bungles defense in Week 2 when they played the Browns, and they cracked a few eggs on our face by giving up 51 points at Derek Anderson’s coming out party. Still, despite giving up points all season they have generated 30 takeaways and 2 TDs on defense. This week they go into San Francisco and play against an offense that’s an absolute mess. The 49ers are also starting Shaun Hill at QB, a guy who is supposedly worse than Trent Dilfer, as hard as that is to fathom. Mark the Bungles down for 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 2 INTs and 1 TD.

Jerious Norwood Photo Credit: Todd Kirkland/Icon SMI

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Photo Credit: Alex Menendez/Icon SMI

- No, last time we checked hell hath not frozen over, so there must be another reason why the Pistons’ enigmatic forward/center Rasheed Wallace has settled into a newfound restraint when it comes to dealing with NBA officials. A year after amassing 19 technical fouls–and a one-game suspension because of it–Wallace has been T-ed up just three times through 22 games (and the last two were major cheapies). That puts him on pace for “just” eight for the season, though you know he’ll likely end up somewhere between 12 – 15 when all is said and done.

So what gives? For starters, things have been going relatively well for the Pistons and, on most nights, the officiating hasn’t been awful. Plus, after ‘Sheed imploded and was ejected during Game 6 of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, there was probably a long discussion during the offseason between Wallace and GM Joe Dumars about reeling in a vitriol directed at the refs and redirecting it towards his opponents. Wallace is also in the best shape of his Pistons career, and though he’d never ever admit it, he was probably humbled by the team’s consecutive ECF losses to teams they should have beaten. If he can maintain his cool and stats (14 points, 7.3 boards, 2 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 three-pointers), it’ll go a long way towards getting this team back to the ECF for a chance to kill that monkey on their back.

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Plugging in your fantasy studs at RB, QB, and WR is easy; sorting out the fringes of your roster, not so much. We agonize over these decisions until 5 minutes before kickoff, then kick ourselves about the guys we started 10 minutes after kickoff. We’re talking about the WR/TE Flex and WR/RB Flex plays, and they’re a pain in the friggin’ arse.

Our Position Rankings now include more running backs and wide receivers, so you can now refer to those ranks for your WR3 and RB2 options. ETB’s Cheat Sheet only focuses on those crucial flex-spot ranks.

Week 15 Cheat Sheet Rankings

Photo Credit: Tom Croke/Icon SMI

Week 15 RB/WR Flex Plays

1. Kevin Jones, Detroit @ SD
2. Chester Taylor, Minnesota vs. CHI
3. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis @ OAK
4. Adrian Peterson, Chicago @ MIN
5. Kolby Smith, Kansas City vs. TEN
6. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City vs. HOU
7. Brandon Stokley, Denver @ HOU
8. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville @ PIT
9. Jabar Gafney, New England vs. NYJ
10. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta @ TB

Fortune Cookies: Welcome to Mr. Toad Martz’s Wild Ride. Will Kevin Jones get 20+ carries? He’s gotten at least 100 total yards and a TD every time that’s happened—all three times… The Minnesota offensive line is opening massive holes right now, and Chicago is trotting out one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. We think Chester Taylor has a great chance to score in the Metrodome this week… Anthony Gonzalez is “The Man,” as Peyton Manning put it this week, and should thrive against an Oakland secondary that doesn’t stop No.2 WRs… This is about as bad a matchup as any RB can see, but Adrian Peterson stays active in the passing game and Minnesota let Frank Gore catch 8 passes last week… Kolby Smith is not expected to be at full strength this weekend and that offensive line is in shambles, but he’s the featured back there and has a chance to punch one in with modest yardage… Dwayne Bowe has really cooled off lately, but he should be a primary target for Croyle in Arrowhead and Gonzo is back to drawing coverage to his side of the field… You’ll want to check Brandon Stokley’s status before kickoff on Sunday, but we think he’ll go. If so, he should be a decent flex play against a sagging Houston pass defense and opposite newly minted stud Brandon Marshall… It’s hard to bench Fred Taylor right now with the way he’s playing, but the matchup bumps him down to mediocre flex status for this week. Pittsburgh is brutal to opposing backs, and Taylor is no lock to get the carries on the goal line… Jabar Gaffney was involved in his most snaps of the season last week and has overtaken Donte’ Stallworth as the Pats WR3. The weather conditions may be rough, but you have to think New England is going to pile on the points against Mangini and the franchise that accused them of cheating earlier this year… Jerious Norwood has been playing better than Dunn all season and is a threat to take it the distance on any play, and yet hasn’t received double-digit carries yet this season. With HC Bobby Petrino resigning, perhaps the coaching staff will come to their senses and get him the ball, but either way he should be active in a matchup against the Tampa-2 that takes away receivers over the top.

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Hard as it is to believe, we’re approaching the quarter pole in fantasy basketball leagues. At this point you know what kind of team you have on your hands. For the most part player roles are defined and the season’s biggest sleepers are already owned. For those of you in head-to-head leagues it’s time to assess strengths and weaknesses and build a strategy if you haven’t already. The standard H2H league is a nine-category format with FG%, FT%, three-pointers, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and TOs. Those are carefully chosen and balanced categories that have stood the test of time.

Teams that are strong in guard play will tend to take the FT%, three-pointers, assists and steals categories while losing TOs, blocks, boards and FG% with regularity. Strong frontcourt teams will feature centers and power forwards and will take FG%, rebounds, blocks and TOs on a consistent basis but are weak in assists, FT% assists and three-pointers. The remaining category is points, which is essentially the tie-breaker when a good backcourt team and frontcourt team face off. Trying to dominate one of those sets of categories is one of the most basic strategies of fantasy basketball.

Of course, there are just as many good teams built on other combinations as well. A frontcourt team with Kevin Garnett or Yao Ming might angle for FT%, or a backcourt team with Steve Nash or Deron Williams might go after FG%. You can really go after any 5+ categories you want, but they need to be clearly defined. Going into your fantasy playoffs you want to have at least five categories you feel you should win every week. That usually means booting the other categories, trading away your weaknesses to fortify your strengths. If you’re going to lose three-pointers every week, there’s just no point in owning Raja Bell– trade him away now for another stat that can help you. When you’re going to lose a category, you might as well lose big. So be aggressive, scour the wire in your categories, make multiple trade offers and don’t be afraid of getting slightly less value in return if you can improve your chances of winning a playoff matchup.

There are teams out there that try to just be above average across the board. They don’t think about categories so much as they just try to acquire good fantasy players. We don’t recommend such a haphazard approach, and you can take advantage of it. Over the course of the regular season it may work out pretty well and they can make the playoffs. However, when that team gets to the playoffs and faces your team that has been groomed all season to crush in 5-6 categories and doesn’t have any resources invested in the other 3-4, the balanced team will fall every time.

Craig Smith Photo Credit: Darrell Walker/Icon SMI

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Photo Credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI

You’ll soon find out whether or not all those long nights making roster adjustments at 1:30am will pay off. Make a mistake on who to start this week and your errors will weigh heavily on your conscience over the next nine long, Bourbon-soaked months. Choose correctly, and you live to point your finger in that dude from Accounting’s face once again. Without further ado, here is ETB’s top 20 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs, 15 TEs, and 15 Team Defenses based on past performance, injuries, bye weeks, and matchups for Week 15.

The Broncos and Texans square off on Thursday night, while the Bungles and 49ers kick off on Saturday. Make the necessary adjustments to your roster before then.

More Free Fantasy Advice for Week 15:

- ETB’s Week 15 Stock Report

- ETB’s Week 15 Fantasy Matchups

- ETB’s Week 15 Cheat Sheet

Fantasy Week 15: Top 20 Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady, New England vs. NYJ
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis @ OAK
3. Tony Romo, Dallas vs. PHI
4. Brett Favre, Green Bay @ STL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle @ CAR
6. Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. ARZ
7. Derek Anderson, Cleveland vs. BUF
8. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati @ SF
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh vs. JAX
10. Philip Rivers, San Diego vs. DET (Check Status)
11. Kurt Warner, Arizona @ NO
12. Jay Cutler, Denver @ HOU
13. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia @ DAL
14. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay vs. ATL
15. Jon Kitna, Detroit @ SD
16. David Garrard, Jacksonville @ PIT
17. Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. WSH
18. Sage Rosenfels, Houston vs. DEN
19. Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota vs. CHI
20. Trent Edwards, Buffalo @ CLE

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You can’t have grown up in the greater Detroit area without developing a soft spot for Meijer, the OG all-night superstore, and Pistons forward Jarvis Hayes seems to have discovered its bounty of riches too. Watch as the man formerly known as ETB’s First Interviewee goes Christmas shopping for his Pistons teammates (and gets stuck on camera for an awkward five seconds or so at the very end). Good job, Jarvis, but about those coats…

Photo Credit: John Pyle/Icon SMI

This is for all the marbles. Time to push it to the max, take it to the extreme, and so on, and so forth. Ok. So you don’t need us to tell you how important your matchup against that turd who sits five cubicles over is. What you do need is a competitive edge, some of ETB’s patented fantasy football analysis, to ensure that you emerge victorious. Fortunately, our weekly Matchups are just in time. Armed with this column and tomorrow’s Position Rankings, there’s little doubt that you will stand triumphant on Tuesday morning, clenching the still-beating heart of your vanquished foe, one foot on his throat and the other on his genitals, his warm blood dripping from your jowls.

As always, these are not necessarily the guys we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we dismiss. These aren’t all sneaky plays, either. These are just the matchups that we think deserve mention*.

Drew Brees Photo Credit: Kevin Reece/Icon SMI

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Brett Favre, Green Bay @ STL
Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. ARZ
Derek Anderson, Cleveland vs. BUF
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle @ CAR
Jay Cutler, Denver @ HOU

Fortune Cookies: Don’t be fooled by last week’s performance from the St. Louis secondary. It was in driving rain and against a Bengals passing attack that has been completely out of sorts for over a month. Brett Favre, suddenly flush with options out wide, should have no trouble putting up at least 2 TDs and 250 yards– the guy is in the middle of perhaps his finest season and has at least 2 TD passes in six of the last seven weeks… If you own him, then you’re likely all too aware that Drew Brees has 22 TD tosses in his last nine games. It’s been an incredible run after that disappointing start and he needs to be in your lineup every week, but Brees should absolutely destroy the struggling, Adrian Wilson-less Cardinals secondary that just gave up 272 yards and 4 TDs to Matt Hasselbeck (with 0 INTs)… Derek Anderson has cooled off some from that torrid start, but he does have a pair of touchdowns in each of his last three games and the 6′6″ QB throws his best ball at home (100.1 QB rating in Cleveland). Buffalo’s defense has been better than advertised this season, but they struggle on the road… Coming off that four-touchdown explosion against the Cards, Matt Hasselbeck & Co. draw the moribund Panthers. Don’t let the 12th-ranked pass defense fool you, teams just haven’t needed to throw on Carolina much this season. However, Seattle has nearly abandoned their weak running attack and let Hasselbeck attempt at least 33 passes in each of the last eight games… Don’t look now, but after last week’s four-touchdown performance Jay Cutler is averaging 2 TDs and 240 yards a game with just 3 INTs over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Texans secondary is struggling over the same stretch, allowing nearly 265 yards a game through the air. Cutler has established an excellent rapport with stud WR Brandon Marshall, and we expect them to keep rolling this week.

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We’re into the fantasy playoffs, and your roster is likely set for the remaining weeks. Sure, there are a few teams who need to find injury replacements or spot starters. Owners of Anquan Boldin, Roy Williams or, in my case both, are likely scrambling to find fill-ins. But most teams made it this far by having good depth and it’s just a matter of setting the lineup each week and hoping for the best. However, it’s never too early to start thinking about next season. It’s extremely important to watch trends down the stretch, especially with young players. With an eye toward next season and those troublesome spot starters, ETB’s Weekly Stock Report breaks down the biggest movers, shakers and money makers from Week 14 of the NFL season.

Brandon Marshall Photo Credit: Rich Gabrielson/Icon SMI

Big Gainers:

Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver Broncos: We were fairly confident that Marshall would have a nice game on Sunday against the Chiefs, but he exceeded even our expectations despite not finishing the game. The 10 receptions were a career best, the 115 yards receiving put him over 1,000 for the season, and the two touchdowns gave him six in 13 games. There’s no telling if Javon Walker will ever regain his Pro Bowl form, and for our money Marshall is the clear-cut WR1 for Denver on our draft board next season no matter what Walker’s status is. Paired with the maturation at quarterback of fellow second-year player Jay Cutler, Marshall should take his fantasy production up another notch in ‘08.

Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Three weeks straight with a YPC north of 7, and Taylor has elevated his fantasy role from a so-so flex-play to a fairly solid RB2 for the remainder of the season (except for this week). Signed to a somewhat surprising contract extension in the offseason given the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew, the 31-year-old is flat out getting it done this season on the ground, lifting his overall ‘07 YPC to 4.9 by going over 100 yards in each of the last three games despite less than 20 carries in all of them. The touchdowns have been sporadic–just three on the year–but he has a good chance to add at least two more of ‘em with excellent matchups against the poor rushing defenses of Oakland and Houston in Weeks 16 and 17. You should probably turn elsewhere if you have better options, though, when the Jags travel to Pittsburgh this Sunday.

Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills: The surprising Bills were not about to forever be known as “the only team who lost to the 1-15 Dolphins.” While the defense and coaching staff deserve a lot of the credit for getting this team to 7-6 after pounding the ‘Fins, we’re intrigued by the performance of this rookie third-round pick out of Stanford. He threw two first-quarter touchdown passes, and by the time this 38-17 drubbing had ended, almost half of Edwards’ completions were touchdowns (11-23, 165 yards, 4 TDs). This was the first multi-TD pass game of his young career, and we expect the conservative game plan to open up considerably next season. If you’re really, really (really) strapped for help at QB this week, you might even consider him in a favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns and their 30th-ranked pass defense. More likely, however, you keep him on your radar as a possible late-round flier in next season’s fantasy draft.

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(Tip o’ the ETB hat to Just Another Bucks Fan, via TrueHoop)

Photo Credit: Allen Fredrickson/Icon SMI

- The Crystal Ball doth not lie. Perhaps, at times, it’s not dead-on accurate, but we’re usually in the neighborhood and as we predicted, the Packers heavily leaned on Ryan Grant–the NFL’s leading rusher since Week 8–against the laughable Raiders rush defense. Halfway through the second quarter, the unheralded Grant had already registered 13 carries for 66 yards, including a hard-fought touchdown run from the six-yard line. On the day he finished with 29 rushes, 156 yards, and 1 TD; this is the fourth time this year he’s gone over 100. He probably could have pushed for 200 if the game wasn’t a blowout, as Vernand Morency relieved him in the fourth quarter. Grant is a must-start in Week 15 against the Rams.

- Being the contrarian he is, Lions OC Mike Martz defied expectations by establishing the run early against the Cowboys, giving Kevin Jones three carries and Tico Duckett one on the Lions’ opening drive. The results? 31 yards rushing for Jones and a 32-yard scamper into the endzone for Duckett. Jones failed to tack on a one-yard touchdown plunge on the Lions’ second drive (it would later come back to haunt Detroit), but they were still able to move the ball effectively on the ground after last week’s embarassing effort against the Vikings, when they totaled 23 yards rushing on the game.

Jones did find the endzone late in the first half by pounding into paydirt for a two-yard TD, and finished with 23 carries for 92 yards and 2 TDs; for his part, Duckett toted it 9 times for 60 yards and that score. When the Lions rush the ball, they don’t get blown out.. and heck, sometimes they even win! When they don’t, it has the potential to get ugly. As Andrew said Sunday afternoon, why did it take Martz losing four straight games to figure this out? Well, thanks to some untimely blunders typical of this franchise (missed 35-yard FG, failure to recover a fumble on the Cowboys’ game-winning TD drive, poor special teams, no adjustments to slow down Jason Witten, etc), they now have five losses in a row, running game be damned. We’ll be surprised if they win again this season.

- Carson Palmer has had an up and down season (to put it kindly), but he’s laying an egg for fantasy teams at the worst possible time. Most of his owners drafted him because of that sweet schedule in the playoff weeks: vs. STL, @ SF and vs. CLE. Unfortunately, those last two dates may not matter for a lot of you who started Palmer and watched him throw for just 189 yards with 2 INTs and 0 TDs. He should have eaten this secondary alive, but instead he was embarrassed by an undermanned and untalented unit at home. It was the second consecutive week Palmer went touchdownless. Rudi Johnson wasn’t too pretty either. At one point he had 5 carries for 6 yards, but did manage to score and salvaged some yards in garbage time, finishing with 23 rushes for 92 yards (4.0 YPC) and the one score. Believe me, the numbers make it look better than it was.

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