ETB’s Week 15 NFL Hangover
December 17, 2007

Tom Brady Photo Credit: Robert E. Klein/Icon SMI
- With the fantasy playoffs underway, the theme of the week was good teams getting knocked off after their stud quarterback laid an egg. Squads that were counting on the usually consistent Tom Brady (0 TDs), Peyton Manning (1 TD), Tony Romo (0 TDs), Derek Anderson (0 TDs), and, to a lesser extent, Carson Palmer (1 TD) got left high and dry. Those are five of the top eight quarterbacks in ETB’s scoring format this year, and yet they combined for a total of 2 TDs and 5 INTs. What’s worse, nobody could have seen this coming as all of their matchups (vs. NYJ, @ OAK, vs. PHI, vs. BUF, and @ SF, respectively) looked like cakewalks just a week ago. That’s fantasy football. Hey, everybody knew that Vince Young (2 TDs, 0 INTs) and Brodie Croyle (2 TDs, 2 INTs) would each outperform all those studs combined, right?
Indeed, if you were counting on Brady, Palmer or Manning to carry your fantasy team this week, there’s a good chance you’re up shit’s creek with a turd for a paddle. All three were consensus top-four QBs coming into the season, but inclimate weather sunk Brady in New England (14-27, 120 yards, 1 INT), a prolonged slump carried over into San Francisco for Palmer (19-31, 251 yards, 1 TD), and Manning was just plain average on the road in Oakland (22-39, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). These three will again all draw very favorable matchups on paper in Fantasy Championship Week, but at least one of them—Palmer—has to be considered a risky start regardless of the opponent.
- You may never see as much celebration after a meaningless Week 15 win as that display in Miami yesterday. After Matt Stover missed a 44-yard FG in overtime, one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL took matters into their own hands: Cleo Lemon and Greg Camarillo. Lemon promptly hit Camarillo over the middle for a 64-yard TD to improve the Dolphins record to 1-13. Meanwhile, the natural disaster that is the Baltimore Ravens hit a new low, losing their eighth consecutive game to the NFL’s worst team in recent memory. Adding injury to insult, Ray Lewis either broke his hand or dislocated his finger. You want no part of this team next season, with the possible exception of Willis McGahee. The “Brian Billick is Fired Watch” begins.
- Another Packers win, another NFL record for Brett Favre. The more immediate headline from Green Bay’s 33-14 trouncing of the St. Louis Rams is that they’ve now pulled even, record-wise, with the Cowboys in the race for the NFC’s top playoff seed after the ‘Boys choked one away to the Iggles at home (Dallas owns the head-to-head tiebreaker). But ETB extends our most sincere kudos to Favre, who passed Dan “Isotoners” Marino for most all-time passing yards and now holds the record at 61,405 and counting. For our money, the Packers are the best team in the NFC and if they retain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’re going to the Super Bowl.
- Brian Westbrook had better hope that the Scarfo crime family doesn’t play fantasy football. He managed a strong day with 18 rushes for 81 yards and 9 receptions for 63 more, but he pulled the kind of stunt on the Eagles’ last drive that fantasy owners will never forget. With his team up by four points and just over two minutes left, Westbrook broke free of the Dallas defense and had an easy TD just inches ahead of him, one that undoubtedly would have propelled countless fantasy squads to victory. Then, he stopped. Opting to keep the clock running and guarantee his team a victory may have been a smart play, but it broke more than one heart and lost a lot of people a lot of money.
- Last week the NFC’s likely Pro Bowl starter at TE, Jason Witten, ran roughshod on the laughable Lions with 15 catches for 138 yards and 1 TD. His AFC All-Pro counterpart, Antonio Gates, figured to pull a copycat yesterday with Detroit visiting Qualcomm Stadium, and sure enough, the Chargers dropped 51 points on the clawless kitties. However, Gates finished the afternoon with 1 catch for 8 yards, which equates to less than one fantasy point. One!
Owners of the Bolts’ other fantasy stud, a guy named LaDainian Tomlinson, were left satisfied but probably wanting more as LT sat out almost the entire second half after amassing 116 yards rushing and 2 TDs. There’s no question that if Norv Turner hadn’t shown mercy, LT would have at least doubled those totals; third-stringer Darren Sproles outdid him with a career-high 122 yards on the ground and two scores. The Lions return home next week to face drunk fans wearing paper bags over their heads and, oh yeah, the Kansas City Chiefs—get Kolby Smith in your lineup as an excellent flex-play and solid RB2.
- Brandon Marshall just keeps on keepin’ on. He’s gained a special place in the heart of ETB with his consistent production all season in PPR scoring formats. After an incredible first half with 10 catches, Marshall finished with 11 receptions for 107 yards. This guy is going to be a great pro for a long time. He plays like a power forward, deftly using his 6’4” frame to box out cornerbacks and his soft hands to make great catches. That type of physical dominance is what fantasy owners love to see, because unlike a Lee Evans-type it leads to consistent catches on a weekly basis and makes Marshall an ideal target in the red zone. He has good chemistry with Jay Cutler, and as Cutler improves next season Marshall should get even better.
Speaking of Cutler, he also has a great rapport with the Broncos young TE Tony Scheffler, who finished with 7 receptions for 100 yards and a TD. All three of these young playmakers are ones to watch heading into next season. The Denver backfield continues to be a situation I want no part of. I get enough headaches in fantasy football already without trying to channel Mike Shanahan’s muse.
- Jerious Norwood was forced to sit out a portion of the game with a leg injury, but he flashed his skills with 9 carries for 73 yards (8.1 YPC) and could be in for a big season next year. Keep him on the radar, as Atlanta can’t keep giving Warrick Dunn (8 rushes, 32 yards) carries in good conscience. Meanwhile, Roddy White had his worst game of the season against the Bucs again, 1 reception for 4 yards. And yes, Andrew is feeling pretty good about the Roddy White Crystal Ball prediction. When was the last time you saw an NFL team complete just 4 passes in a game? Chris Redman had nearly as many turnovers (2 INTs, 1 FUM) as completions. Sheesh.
- All of the scoring came in the fourth quarter between the Panthers and Seahawks (who don’t have much to play for with their playoff seed pretty much locked up), with Carolina eventually winning out 13-10. Wouldn’t you know it, DeAngelo Williams outperforms DeShaun Foster once again, scoring the Panthers’ only TD of the day and gaining 14 more rushing yards on three less carries. We were one year early on pegging the speedy Williams as the featured back in Carolina, but are fairly confident he’ll take the job next season, which will be his third in the league. Don’t forget him during your ‘08 fantasy drafts—he should end up with a lot more value than where he’s taken.

- So, two months after Detroit Lions WR Mike Furrey defiantly boasted “Hey media, the Lions are 4-2. You can kiss my ass!,” his team has lost six straight games, running their record to 6-8 and their season into the ground. The defense has now given up more points (390) than any team in the league, their quarterback (Jon Stiffna) is tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown with 17, and head coach Rod Marinelli’s tired mantras about “pounding the rock” and “playing the game one snap at a time” are falling flatter than Matt Millen’s success rate on draft day. Only a franchise as sorry as this one could turn such a feel-good start to the season into an unmitigated disaster, one that surely has some of its long-suffering followers pondering another Millen Man March this Sunday for the team’s final home game.
We’re still trying to figure out why they bothered flying across the country to lay down to the Chargers approximately 30 seconds after kickoff. Their 51-14 loss was a low point and a damning indictment of how Marinelli has lost this team. All those “high-character guys” he glowingly spoke of are being exposed as just another batch of Lions cornbread. After all these years—all these lowly, lowly years—the word “pride” still doesn’t hasn’t entered this franchise’s everyday lexicon. Another potentially tumultuous offseason awaits: their best defensive player, Shaun Rogers, will probably be traded for draft picks (we know what happens with those when Millen makes the call). The quarterback position will be re-evaluated after Stiffna’s poor overall season, and the offensive line, linebacking corps, secondary, and special teams need a bigger upgrade than a few months of retooling can reasonably provide. But take heart, Lions fans—more help at wide receiver is surely on the way.
Posted by Andrew Thell and Brian Spencer on Dec. 17, 2007 at 12:18 pm in NFL, NFL Fantasy News





