Empty the Bench

Hard as it is to believe, we’re approaching the quarter pole in fantasy basketball leagues. At this point you know what kind of team you have on your hands. For the most part player roles are defined and the season’s biggest sleepers are already owned. For those of you in head-to-head leagues it’s time to assess strengths and weaknesses and build a strategy if you haven’t already. The standard H2H league is a nine-category format with FG%, FT%, three-pointers, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and TOs. Those are carefully chosen and balanced categories that have stood the test of time.

Teams that are strong in guard play will tend to take the FT%, three-pointers, assists and steals categories while losing TOs, blocks, boards and FG% with regularity. Strong frontcourt teams will feature centers and power forwards and will take FG%, rebounds, blocks and TOs on a consistent basis but are weak in assists, FT% assists and three-pointers. The remaining category is points, which is essentially the tie-breaker when a good backcourt team and frontcourt team face off. Trying to dominate one of those sets of categories is one of the most basic strategies of fantasy basketball.

Of course, there are just as many good teams built on other combinations as well. A frontcourt team with Kevin Garnett or Yao Ming might angle for FT%, or a backcourt team with Steve Nash or Deron Williams might go after FG%. You can really go after any 5+ categories you want, but they need to be clearly defined. Going into your fantasy playoffs you want to have at least five categories you feel you should win every week. That usually means booting the other categories, trading away your weaknesses to fortify your strengths. If you’re going to lose three-pointers every week, there’s just no point in owning Raja Bell– trade him away now for another stat that can help you. When you’re going to lose a category, you might as well lose big. So be aggressive, scour the wire in your categories, make multiple trade offers and don’t be afraid of getting slightly less value in return if you can improve your chances of winning a playoff matchup.

There are teams out there that try to just be above average across the board. They don’t think about categories so much as they just try to acquire good fantasy players. We don’t recommend such a haphazard approach, and you can take advantage of it. Over the course of the regular season it may work out pretty well and they can make the playoffs. However, when that team gets to the playoffs and faces your team that has been groomed all season to crush in 5-6 categories and doesn’t have any resources invested in the other 3-4, the balanced team will fall every time.

Craig Smith Photo Credit: Darrell Walker/Icon SMI

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On a completely unrelated note, I’m already gearing up for the NBA Slam Dunk contest. It’s a little over two months away, but a recent post on NBA.com got me thinking about who I want to see. Last year I was begging to have Gerald Green included and I got my wish. Just as your humble author predicted, Green ran away with the contest in impressive fashion (by the way, the checks still haven’t arrived yet… just let me know if you need to know where to send them). Of course, I’d like to see Gerald Green get a chance to defend his title, even if he’s not getting any tick for the Wolves this season. With so much young talent in the NBA, I don’t have a problem with featuring the young guys and I’m hoping Andre Iguodala also gets a chance to prove that the judges were out of their minds when they gave the title to Nate Robinson two years ago. I’m also sweet on the 2005 Slam-Dunk champion, Josh Smith. J-Smoove is making ridiculous plays on a nightly basis and may be the most explosive leaper in the NBA. To round it out I’d like to get a relative unknown with some serious hops, my man Travis Outlaw– you can see his resume all over YouTube.

Up and Down Game:

Push it Up:

Craig “Rhino” Smith, SF/PF/C: We’ve been big fans of the Inglewood, CA, native from day one. A second-round pick last year, this guy is a freakish beast around the basket and manages to make good things happen every time he gets minutes. At just 6′7″ Smith is a tad undersized at power forward, but he makes up for it by being the strongest man on the court every night. He’s all muscle and hustle. He’s put together an impressive string of games recently, averaging 16 points over his last eight contests. When Rhino got inserted into the starting lineup two games ago, I scooped him up in a few leagues and I don’t think I’ll be releasing him any time soon– he just dropped 36 and 8 on the Wizards last night. He doesn’t do much else in the box score, but Smith should be a stud in FG% with good points and boards. He’s shooting 59.6% FGs on the season and has hit at least half of his shots in ten consecutive games.

Kyle Lowry, PG/SG: His Villanova teammate Randy Foye is on more fantasy teams, but Lowry is the one helping his owners. He got the chance to start three games ago with Damon Stoudamire injured and Lowry produced a near triple-double with 14 points, 9 boards and 9 assists. Coach Marc Iavaroni liked what he saw, and Lowry has played at least 31 minutes in each of the last three games, increasing his scoring each time out and recording a block each game. The blocks may not last, but the scoring should if he continues to get minutes in this up-tempo offense.

James Posey, SG/SF: We’re being forced to reassess our fantasy projections for Boston, but not because they’re playing poorly. They’re blowing teams out with such frequency that the backups are getting in the game early and playing enough minutes to help fantasy squads. Posey is consistently seeing 25 minutes a game, and has responded by posting 12.7 points, 6.3 boards and 2.7 three-pointers over the last week on 54.5% FGs and 85.7% FTs. The high-shooting percentage is likely going to come down a bit, but opposing defenses are focusing in on the big three so much that the auxiliary players in Boston are getting plenty of open looks to go with their minutes.

Josh Boone, PF/C: New Jersey has been desperate for a big man in the middle for years, and they’re willing to try just about anything at this point. Sean Williams is still blocking shots, but he’s been offensively challenged and isn’t hitting the glass like the Nets need, so Lawrence Frank has started playing Boone more. After a pair of DNPs the 6′10″ PF/C got 24 minutes on Sunday and 27 minutes last night. He’s averaged 11 boards, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks in those games on 54.5% FGs. He was a 2006 first-round pick, so this production isn’t out of nowhere.

Kurt Thomas, PF/C: The Sonics have been nearly as starved for big men as the Nets in recent years, so they gave the Suns an $8 million trade exception this summer to acquire the 35-year-old bruiser. Pretty much everybody assumed his fantasy value died two years ago, but Thomas has proven he can still box out and clean the glass for a team that misses a lot of shots (ahem, Kevin Durant). After starting the season in street clothes the vet has come on to average 9.5 boards on the season with just 0.9 TOs per. His modus operandi has always been modest numbers and solid boards with good percentages and low TOs, so if you just need rebounds and don’t want to hurt yourself to get them, Thomas is worth a look.

Joel Pryzbilla, C: With news that Lamarcus Aldridge is out for at least a week with plantar fasciitis, the Vanilla Gorilla has seen a boost in minutes and responded with 10 boards and 5 blocks last night. Channing Frye has played poorly all season, and Pryzbilla has been starting for a few weeks and managed a block in six straight games (1.4 per on the season). Foot injuries like Aldridge’s have a tendency to recur all season, and the last time Pryzbilla got big minutes was 2004-05, when he put up 2.8 blocks and 10.1 boards in 30 minutes as a starter, so there is some modest long-term potential here– just be happy with 8 boards and 2 blocks if you get them.

Travis Outlaw, SF/PF: This is the third straight season Outlaw has been a major sleeper candidate, and he may finally be making good. The 23-year-old has shown flashes of brilliance every year since being taken with a first-round pick in 2003 out of high school, but has never put together a solid season. He still hasn’t earned a spot in the starting lineup, but that could be coming as Outlaw has been Portland’s best offensive option in December, averaging 17.8 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block and just 1 TO on 48.5% FGs and 75.9% FTs. To be honest, if Outlaw gets 30 or more minutes a game that is the exact type of line I expect from him.

Trevor Ariza, SG/SF: Ah, Ariza. Another guy I think has massive untapped potential in fantasy and the NBA. The Lakers acquired the 22-year-old Ariza for peanuts considering Orlando said they had “big, big” plans for him just last season. For a young guy, he plays tremendous man and help defense on the perimeter, runs the floor well, and can take it to the basket. Trevor should be a quality source of hustle stats and a few points with a good FG%. He’s gotten over 20 minutes twice in the last three games and averaged 13 points, 4.5 boards, 2.5 steals and 1 block in those games while hitting 7-of-8 FGs and 12-of-16 FTs. He’s only worth an add in deep leagues, but everybody should put Ariza on the watch list.

Raja Bell, SG: Raja Bell was suffering through back spasms earlier this year and it severely limited his production. It’s not something he’s dealt with before though, so there’s little reason to think it will linger all season. Bell said he was finally over the back troubles now, and has returned to form in December: 15.3 points, , 3.2 three-pointers and 3.3 assists. This is the guy that led the NBA in three-pointers made last season, so if you have a need now is a great time to buy low.

Slow it Down:

Eddy Curry/Zach Randolph, PF/C: The starting power forward and center for the New York Knicks have a combined 14 blocks in 19 games. That’s mind boggling. Curry has 12 and Randolph has 2 (yes, two). Curry is a starting center in the NBA and there are 64 players with more blocks than him. There are 227 players with more blocks than Zach Randolph. Brandon Bass, Amir Johnson, Antoine Wright, Martell Webster and Adonal Foyle have more blocks that these two clowns behind. Wow.

Randy Foye, PG/SG: Randy was optimistic that he would be cleared to play on Monday, but instead got word that he’ll be out at least another month. It turns out that his knee cap hasn’t fully healed and is even showing signs of developing a crack. “You hope for better news but it is still good news because he’s progressing in the right direction,” said the Wolves moron of a coach Randy Wittman. If you need to cut bait for a promising young guy on the wire at this point, feel free to do so.

Ray Allen, SG: It’s almost hard to believe, but Boston is 17-2 and Ray Allen hasn’t even found his stroke yet. And with Boston blowing teams out with regularity, he’s not getting a chance to find his offensive flow. Allen is shooting 40.9% from the field, which would be a career low by a wide margin. While the rest of the numbers are fairly solid, they’re still down significantly in every statistical category as he defers to Garnett, Pierce and the rest. Allen’s best fantasy days are likely behind him, but he should still have a fine season. The FG% will rebound, and when it does his points and three-pointers will come with them, so now may be the time to buy low on an elite FT% and three-pointer guy.

Boris Diaw, SF/PF/C: Because of that center eligibility people still cling to the French assist machine, but he just isn’t worth owning right now. Mike D’Antoni recently said he needs to get Diaw more minutes and more involved in the offense, but he’s clearly a fringe player now with Grant Hill in the fold. Diaw’s 5 points, 1.8 assists and 1.8 rebounds in December do not warrant a roster spot. You can do better. Hill is obviously fragile so be ready to grab Boris again if he goes down, but it’s time to cut bait. ETB’s calls to Diaw’s representatives were not returned so we weren’t able to confirm this, but if you needed further motivation we have also heard that Boris eats turd sandwiches.