Empty the Bench

(By Paul Sancya, AP)

It’s do or die time. Win or go home. This is for all the marbles. Time to push it to the max, take it to the extreme, and so on, and so forth. Ok. So you don’t need us to tell you how important your matchup against that turd who sits five cubicles over is. What you do need is a competitive edge, some of ETB’s patented fantasy football analysis, to ensure that you emerge victorious. Fortunately, our weekly Matchups are just in time. Armed with this column and tomorrow’s Position Rankings, there’s little doubt that you will stand triumphant on Tuesday morning, clenching the still-beating heart of your vanquished foe, one foot on his throat and the other on his genitals, his warm blood dripping from your jowls.

As always, these are not necessarily the guys we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we dismiss. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we think deserve mention*.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Tony Romo, Dallas @ DET
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle vs. ARZ
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati vs. STL
Derek Anderson, Cleveland @ NYJ
David Garrard, Jacksonville vs. CAR

Fortune Cookies: This one’s not all that diffcult to figure out, eh? Tony Romo leads the NFL’s third-best passing attack (in terms of yardage) into Detroit to face a team that’s lost four straight, is rapidly descending into full-blown turmoil, and gives up over 265 passing yards/per… The cupboard isn’t completely bare in Arizona’s secondary, but the loss of Pro-Bowl talent Adrian Wilson has really hurt them. Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 2 TD passes in six of his last seven games and not more than 1 INT since Week 3. He’s also usually better at home… Carson Palmer laid a rotten egg last week in Pittsburgh (17-44, 183 yards, 0 TDs), but a home matchup vs. the eminently beatable St. Louis secondary should allow him to make up for it; Palmer has one of the softer schedules during the fantasy playoffs… The lowly Jets are just relieved to have not lost to the lowlier Dolphins last week, while Derek Anderson and the Browns are still entertaining playoff hopes. Anything less than 250 yards and 2 TDs would be a major letdown… David Garrard finally threw his first interception of the year last week against the Colts, but he was very efficient (24-29, 257 yards, 2 TDs) otherwise against one of the best coverage units in the NFL. He’s a safe but not spectacular option against the decent Panthers.

Temper Your Expectations

Brett Favre, Green Bay vs. OAK
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh @ NE

Fortune Cookies: It seems that despite suffering a separated shoulder last week against Dallas, Brett Favre will keep his amazing streak of consecutive starts (269!) going at home against the Raiders. He’s putting together one of the strongest overall efforts of his somewhat-storied career this season, but we think Ryan Grant will be leaned on heavily against a rush defense giving up nearly 150/per… If you own Ben Roethlisberger you probably can’t bench him, but you never know what you’re going to get from quarterbacks when they visit New England. Something in the neighborhood of 200 yards and 1 or 2 TDs is very possible, but that figures to be the ceiling.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Kellen Clemens, New York Jets vs. CLE

Fortune Cookie: Do your league playoffs not begin until Week 15? Has your team been mathematically eliminated already? If you’re playing the spoiler role, have nothing to lose, and landed in that predicament because of poor play at the QB position, consider a gamble on Kellen Clemens as he faces the league’s third-most generous pass defense. He showed signs of improvement last week against Miami (15-24, 236 yards, 1 TD) and will likely be asked to throw 30+ times playing from behind.

Dud of the Week

Jon Kitna, Detroit vs. DAL

Fortune Cookie: Boooo! Drafted to be a QB1 for many teams, Jon Kitna has to be considered one of the season’s biggest disappointments. He’s thrown for 2+ TDs in any given week just five times and for 300 yards just twice. Meanwhile, the fumbles and interceptions have been adding up (20 combined), and all those sacks he’s taking have led some to nickname him “Jon Stiffna.” The Cowboys don’t field the world’s best secondary, but you just can’t take this gamble after he’s burned you so many times.

(Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Five Strong Running Back Plays

Ryan Grant, Green Bay vs. OAK
Marion Barber III, Dallas @ DET
Clinton Portis, Washington vs. CHI
Jamal Lewis, Cleveland @ NYJ
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay @ HOU

Fortune Cookies: No rush defense has been exploited lately as much as Oakland’s has, and Ryan Grant has emerged as a guy this team can count on to pick up the tough yardage and find the endzone. Grant leads the NFL in rushing since Week 8 and has put up over 400 yards and 4 TDs in the last four games. With Brett Favre less than full strength, we see big things from Grant at home… He won’t match last season’s 16 TDs, but Marion Barber has still been a scoring machine this year with eight trips to the endzone. He only has one touchdown in the last four games, but we expect him to get at least that many against a Detroit defense that was eaten alive by the Vikings rushing attack a week ago. The Lions have allowed a generous 11 TDs on the ground this year and Dallas should have multiple chances at the goal line… The Buffalo defense has been surprisingly good this season, but it was still shocking to see Clinton Portis manage just 50 yards on 25 carries last week. He’s been feast or famine most of the year, and we think this will be one of his feast games. The Chicago defense just isn’t that good this year, and they’ve really struggled against the run, giving up 130.8 yards a game and 13 rushing TDs on the season. Expect an emotional performance from the Redskins, who will lean heavily on their workhorse… Jamal Lewis may not be making too many plays himself anymore, but he’s the unquestioned man in a potent offense and still capable of punching it into the endzone. He should see plenty of carries against a toothless Jets run defense that gives up over 140 yards rushing a game, especially if the Browns get up early in the game. Jamal has a remarkable 7 TDs in the last five games and is as good bet to score again this week… Barring an injury here, Earnest Graham will go over 1,000 total yards on the season. That’s pretty remarkable for an undrafted 27-year-old who had never even touched the ball 30 times in a season before. We have to give it to the big guy though: he’s punched one in four straight weeks and has a decent 4.2 YPC on the season. Houston’s rush defense has been below average all season, and is struggling of late. With Tampa fighting to lock up a playoff birth, Graham should touch the ball 25 times, eclipse 100 total yards and has a good chance to score (Houston has allowed 11 rushing TDs on the season).

Temper Your Expectations

DeShaun Foster, Carolina @ JAX
Justin Fargas, Oakland @ GB

Fortune Cookies: The Jaguars are tough to run on as it is (allowing just 96.7/per, good for 8th in the NFL), and last week DeShaun Foster gave up significant snaps to and was outperformed by DeAngelo Williams, who figures into the team’s long-term plans much more than Foster. He’ll still get the start, but this is developing into a timeshare situation… Since seizing full-time duty in the Raiders backfield from the ailing LaMont Jordan, Justin Fargas has been one of the league’s hottest RBs, rushing for 285 yards and 2 TDs over the past two weeks. Tough situation this week, though, on the road at wintry Green Bay against a solid rush defense that has only given up 1 TD on the ground in the last month. He’s been held down by the Vikings and Bears in recent weeks, so a poor performance is very possible.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Fred Taylor, Jacksonville vs. CAR

Fortune Cookie: MJD gets all the press (and scores most of the TDs), but Fred Taylor is still the starter in Jacksonville and garners a bulk of the carries out of the backfield. Taylor has run extremely hard the last two weeks, putting up an identical 14 carries for 104 yards in both contests, and has 2 TDs in the last four weeks. Carolina is running on fumes right now and have a generous defense that has given up 11 rushing TDs even though they’ve held opposing runners to 3.6 YPC. Carolina’s defense is banged up and it’s a good matchup for Taylor at home, so consider him a nice RB3 play.

Fortune Cookie:

Dud of the Week

Fast Willie Parker, Pittsburgh @ NE

Fortune Cookie: There’s something fishy in Pittsburgh. As we said in the Hangover, “He hasn’t scored a TD in six weeks and has only two on the season. Parker scored 16 TDs last season. The 3.8 YPC on the year is anemic compared to the rest of his career, where he has never dipped below 4.4 YPC.” As if the season-long struggles weren’t enough, Parker gets to face off against a Patriots team that gives up less than 95 total rushing yards has let up just 7 rushing scores on the season. Oh, and he’s on the road.

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Torry Holt, St. Louis @ CIN
‘Rowdy’ Roddy White, Atlanta vs. NO
Bobby Engram, Seattle vs. ARI
Sidney Rice, Minnesota @ SF
Patrick Crayton, Dallas @ DET

Fortune Cookies: Despite the myriad injuries all over the St. Louis offense, Torry Holt is on pace for another Torry Holt season with 72 receptions, 944 yards and 6 TDs thus far. It doesn’t seem to matter who’s under center (it should be Bulger), as Holt has at least 5 receptions in all but one game (where he had 4), and has three games over 110 yards and 3 TDs in the last five contests. He’s rolling right now and won’t slow down against a pathetic Bungles secondary that has allowed 24 TD receptions on the season, the second-most in the NFL… Believe it or not, the Atlanta Falcons have one of the hottest receivers in the NFL right now. After his monster game last week, ‘Rowdy’ Roddy White has 16 receptions, 250 yards and 2 TDs over the last two weeks. The 2005 first-round pick is in the midst of a breakout season and should go over 1,000 yards this week against a very beatable New Orleans secondary. If Roddy draws CB Jason David this week, look out, he could go off… The loss of safety Adrian Wilson has had a profound effect on the Cardinals secondary, and the absences of DJ Hackett have been great news for Bobby Engram owners. Bobby caught 5 passes for 60 yards and a score last week and continues to see tons of looks in this active passing game… Sidney Rice has emerged as the Vikings best wideout as a rookie and scored touchdowns in each of the last two weeks. He’s athletic and sure-handed, making difficult catches in the air and in traffic. Tarvaris Jackson is finally showing signs of progress and the two have good chemistry on deep balls, while the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL against WRs over the last month… We were really talking up Patrick Crayton early in the season, but he got off to a slow start. With 7 TDs in the last seven games he’s played in, we forgive him. Crayton only caught 3 balls in his return last week, but he made them count with 2 TDs. The Detroit secondary just got finished giving up the aforementioned Tarvaris Jackson’s first 200-yard and 2-TD game, and they look to be falling apart. Consider Crayton a strong WR3.

Temper Your Expectations

Jerry Porter, Oakland @ GB
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City @ DEN

Fortune Cookies: He’s been up and down all year and barely serviceable as a WR4 in most leagues this year, and this week you’ll want to leave Jerry Porter on your bench. Despite some pretty decent production over the last three weeks Porter is going into a hostile Lambeu Field against a secondary that should see the return of Charles Woodson (and Al Harris is expected to play as well). Oakland will also try to work the rookie JaMarcus Russell into the game… After a rough patch mid-season, Dwayne Bowe has 25 receptions and at least 55 receiving yards each game for the last four weeks. He’ll be on the road this week against a pretty decent pass defense and will have Champ Bailey on him much of the day though, and the weather in Denver could have a big effect on the passing game this weekend.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Bryant Johnson, Arizona @ SEA

Fortune Cookie: Anquan Boldin is almost certain to miss this week’s game, and Larry Fitzgerald is going to be limited and possibly out as well. That should have Kurt Warner looking to Bryant Johnson all day, and the former first-round pick is capable of cashing in on the opportunity. He isn’t on the same level as Fitzy or Boldin, but he’s a capable wideout who can stretch the field. Seattle’s pass defense is nothing to sneeze at, but we think there are going to be a lot of aerial fireworks for both teams in this one.

Dud of the Week

Donald Driver, Green Bay vs. OAK

Fortune Cookie: We’re really going out on a limb here and this isn’t to say you need to bench him. Donald Driver has finally returned to prominence in the Green Bay passing game with 17 receptions over his last two weeks, but he could have a tough time keeping that production up this week. Brett Favre is likely to play, but he’ll be limited and we think Aaron Rodgers will make an appearance. Driver hasn’t been targeted as much in the deep passing game this year either, and he hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week 3 as a result. Add in that he’ll draw Nnamdi Asomugha and that Green Bay will focus on the running game, so production could be hard to come by.

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis @ BAL
Jason Witten, Dallas @ DET
Donald Lee, Green Bay vs. OAK
Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland @ NYJ
Tony Scheffler, Denver vs. KC

Fortune Cookies: Injuries slowed him some a few weeks ago, but Dallas Clark has now achieved career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs with four more games on the docket. Over his last two games, he’s totaled 12 catches, 109 yards, and 3 visits to paydirt, and he has a great chance to score again against Baltimore… We’re not going to get into it: start Jason Witten against the Detroit Lions, okay? In fact, start him every week… After catching 3 balls for 30 yards last week, it looks like Donald Lee could resume his “at least 3 catches” streak that was momentarily disrupted in Week 12… Kellen Winslow Jr. is just 91 yards away from breaking the 1,000 yards receiving mark, and he’s got a great chance to do it this week against a Jets defense that’s soft over the middle… He’s not likely to pull in big yardage, but Tony Scheffler did catch 4 passes for 31 yards on the road in Week 10 against the Chiefs, and we think he’ll score this time. It’s just a hunch, but it’s a strong one.

Temper Your Expectations

Owen Daniels, Houston vs. TB
Eric Johnson, New Orleans @ ATL

Fortune Cookies: Matt Schaub is likely out this week, again, with a shoulder injury, which is bad news for Owen Daniels. His potential for high-end production at his position is highest with Schaub delivering the ball, not Sage Rosenfels… Are you still starting Eric Johnson after he’s caught just 5 passes for 54 yards and 0 TDs over the past three weeks? Really? Well, guy, you might consider looking for someone with more upside this week.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Zach Miller, Oakland @ GB

Fortune Cookie: Green Bay struggles some defending tight ends, and Zach Miller has averaged 3.5 receptions and 43 yards over his past four games, including a career-high 58 yards last week and his second touchdown as a pro. He’s the kind of guy you should consider over a, say, Eric Johnson.

Dud of the Week

Jeff King, Carolina @ JAX

Fortune Cookie: As the Panthers’ desperate QB situation has gone south, so has just about everyone’s production whose reliant on the signal-caller, Jeff King included. He did catch a touchdown pass last week, but it was as short as they get–a one-yarder–and he’s only gone over 36 yards receiving once since Week 3. You can do better.

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

Green Bay Packers vs. OAK
Minnesota Vikings @ SF
Indianapolis Colts @ BAL
Dallas Cowboys @ DET
Washington Redskins vs. CHI

Fortune Cookies: They’ve been giving up some pretty big points lately, but expect the Green Bay DEF to rebound at home against an overachieving Oakland offense that’s not well-suited for what will likely be sub-freezing weather. Their strength is running the ball with Justin Fargas (despite what you saw Josh McCown do last week), and stopping opposing backs just happens to be the Packers’ strong suit… The Minnesota Vikings DEF is pretty much an every-week start in most formats–they lead the league in defensive touchdowns with seven–and that doesn’t change on the road against the poopy 49ers offense… About all the Ravens can hope for against the Indianapolis Colts DEF is to run, run, run the ball with Willis McGahee, as the Colts’ second-rated pass defense shouldn’t have any problem with Kyle Boller and that stellar crew of wideouts Bellicky has assembled… Yes, yet another mention from the Dallas/Detroit matchup (and there’s another below). The Dallas Cowboys DEF doesn’t especially impress us, but they’re facing the NFL’s most-sacked quarterback, who also happens to have more fumbles (13) than any other and is near the top in picks… We’re talking about a very average unit in the Washington Redskins DEF that’s dealing with all kinds of issues, but when Rexy & Co. hit the road, there’s always potential for turnovers and sacks.

Temper Your Expectations

Tennessee Titans vs. SD
Baltimore Ravens vs. IND

Fortune Cookies: The Tennessee Titans DEF looks to welcome Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth back into the mix this week, but he likely won’t be at full strength and this squad has shown they’re not all that great when he’s not on the field. Plus, they’re facing a pretty good running back… Nice job on Monday night by the Baltimore Ravens DEF in sacking Tom Brady three times and picking him off once, but these guys are running out of motivation and frustration is clearly setting in after six straight losses. It won’t get any easier when they welcome the league’s third-highest scoring offense to town.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Buffalo Bills vs. MIA

Fortune Cookie: Back in Week 9 at Miami, the Buffalo Bills DEF recorded a safety, a sack, and allowed just 10 points in their 13-10 win. Nothing too special there, but this unit is much tougher at home, and with a rookie QB now behind center and Buffalo still, somehow, in the playoffs hunt, we expect more sacks, an interception or two, and no more than 14 points allowed.

Dud of the Week

Detroit Lions vs. DAL

Fortune Cookie: The Detroit Lions DEF’s run of wrecking turnover havoc on opposing offenses seems to have come to an acromonious end, as they’ve recorded just 2 interceptions and 5 sacks over their past four games, a stretch in which they’ve given up an average of 31.5 points. That’s kind of bad–really bad–and there’s no reason to think the explosive Cowboys will put up less than their 32.9 average.

More Free Fantasy Football Advice for Week 14

- ETB’s Week 14 Stock Report

- ETB’s Week 14 Position Ranks

- ETB’s Week 14 Cheat Sheet

*Disclaimer: There are some players who are always must starts, and you should know who they are. To make things easy, we’ve picked a few guys at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups because it just wouldn’t be fair– they’re studs, simple as that. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Tom Brady, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Adrian Peterson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Randy Moss, TE Antonio Gates, and DEF New England.