NBA Fantasy Hoops: Picks and Rolls 11/13

- The Season's Over -

NBA Fantasy Hoops: Picks and Rolls 11/13

November 13, 2007

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

- The Boston Celtics were obviously going to be a vastly improved team this season. There was a lot of debate about just how good they could be, with some pundits maintaining that they were instant title favorites while other suggested NBA Champions are molded, not bought. ETB has been somewhere in the middle, believing that such a radical experiment needs to be seen in action before meaningful conclusions can be drawn. I’ve now seen them in action, and I’m impressed. I’ve always maintained that the offseason moves to acquire Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett put them on the short list for a title (alongside the San Antonio Spurs, Phoenix Suns, Detroit Pistons, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz), but I never expected this team to gell so quickly. I thought it would take a month for them to find a rhythm, but it hasn’t been that way. Pierce, Allen and Garnett have all put aside any concerns over superstar egos, and they’re each embracing their roles. Perhaps just as importantly, Rajon Rondo doesn’t look lost at the point, while Eddie House has emerged as an an ideal offensive complement on the outside.

It’s important to note that we’re only five games into the season. The Celtics are one of the thinnest teams in the NBA, and a major injury to any of the Big Three would devastate them. We shouldn’t fall in love with the numbers just yet… but I admit it, those numbers are very impressive already. On the defensive end the Celts lead the NBA in opponent’s FG%, allowing them to shoot just 40.7% from the floor. They’re also leading the NBA in steals with 10.8 per game. On the other end of the floor, the Celts are also first the Association in team FG%, hitting 52.4% of their shots. Boston has gone 5-0 while averaging 107.6 points a game and surrendering just 91.0 per, good for an average margin of victory of 16.6. Again, it’s extremely early. Too early to draw significant conclusions beyond this: these guys are really good.

Ok, enough of my blatant homerism for KG, onto the Fantasy Hoops…

Up and Down Game

Push It:

Luke Ridnour: It’s barely registered on the stat line, but Luke Ridnour is back in the starting lineup for the Sonics and needs to be owned in all leagues until he proves otherwise. When he gets playing time Ridnour is a phenomenal source of assists and FT% (5.2 assists and 85.5% FTs career) with strong steals and threes, and there should be plenty of shots in Seattle. He registered 7 assists in his first game in the starting lineup and should average over 6 if he gets 30+ minutes.

Jeff Green: Another Sonic and another guy who should be owned in most leagues after being dropped too soon. Every year inexperienced fantasy owners drop young players way too early after a couple of bad performances, and every year there are a couple of players who make them regret it–Green could be one of them this year. After a few quiet performances to start the season, the 5th overall pick has played 24+ minutes in two straight and put up 17 and 19 points in each, respectively. The Sonics aren’t going to the playoffs this season and it will be all about developing guys like Green and Durant as the year wears on.

Eddie House: Eddie represents a modest add who could be a glue player for good fantasy teams all year. He won’t be asked to do much besides score and play in the flow of the offense for 20-25 minutes, but he’s a shooter who is capable of averaging double-digit points, 2 three-pointers, a steal and a couple of assists in that time with low TOs and decent percentages. He should get all the open looks he can handle playing alongside the Big Three.

Richard Jefferson: Richard Jefferson has been fantastic this season, and just put up 32 points last night in the absence of Vince Carter. Jefferson’s FT% has been a pleasant surprise, going an incredible 67-of-69 from the line so far. He’s also scored at least 22 points in every game and looks poised to have his best season as a pro as a focal point in this offense. Expect scoring with good percentages and decent rebounds and assists.

Tyrus Thomas: Tyrus is going to be erratic all season, but he’s sporting a much improved offensive repertoire and looks more comfortable than he did on that end last season. With at least three personal fouls each game, his defensive footwork and discipline could still use some work, but for fantasy purposes the 7.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steal are nice, and we expect all three numbers to rise as the season wears on. He won’t get many assists and can’t shoot FTs, but he won’t kill you anywhere either.

Al Horford: Horford already looks like a solid NBA big man, and he’s only going to get better. We’re aware that Zaza “Gibour” Pachulia is back and could cut into his playing time, but it’s hard to imagine head coach Mike Woodson taking this kid off the floor. He’s already playing 30+ minutes a contest as Atlanta’s only legit big man, and he has impressive numbers to show for it: 10.0 boards, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals, and 8.5 points. We think he’ll get heavy minutes all year, so maybe you can talk up Pachulia’s return on your league message board and buy him cheap.

Mike Conley, Jr.: After not getting off the bench in any of Memphis’ first two games, Conley has seen his playing time rapidly increase. In the last three games he’s played 8 minutes, then 16 minutes and finally 23 minutes. In that last game he flashed the playmaking ability that made him the 4th overall pick by dropping 9 dimes, scoring 10 points and getting to the free-throw line 8 times. He’s still flying under the radar in many leagues, but it’s time to give Conley a shot and see what the youngster can do– again, be patient.

Bonzi Wells: Bonzi Wells has been reunited with Rick Adelman after playing well in his offense two years ago in Sacramento. Unlike most NBA coaches, Adelman enjoys a good relationship with Wells and is comfortable giving him heavy minutes. He just laid an egg against the Hornets, but Bonzi was coming off a three-game stretch where he averaged 12 points and 10 rebounds. If he continues to get minutes, expect Bonzi to contribute in points and rebounds with decent steals.

Rudy Gay: Gay started out a little slow, but he’s now posted 25, 31 and 18 points in his last three contests and is showing off his impressive offensive versatility. He has 8 three-pointers, 6 blocks and 5 steals in his last four games and is shooting an impressive 50% on FGs and 77.3% on FTs on the season. This kid has all the talent in the world and it looks like the Grizz will be leaning on him, so his value will only going to continue to rise with his confidence.

Slow It Up:

Kendrick Perkins: Heading into the season I thought Perk was going to be a steal at center with the presence of KG allowing him to focus on rebounding and defense, and the lack of depth ensured healthy minutes. I didn’t realize that Boston was going to lock teams up on the perimeter and not let them get to the basket, and I didn’t anticipate KG gobbling up 15.8 rebounds a game like Pac Man on crack. Perk is rebounding at the exact same pace as last year (5.2 per) and is only scoring 6 points a game. Still, the 1.6 blocks are a bonus and I’m not ready to give up just yet.

John Salmons/Francisco Garcia: Salmons has a great first step, is a good passer and can shoot the ball, so he’ll likely retain some fantasy value all season. But his value may never be higher than it is right now, and Ron Artest’s imminent return will cut into his minutes. I can’t imagine a career 42.5% shooter maintaining a 49.0% pace on a bad team with no inside game, and I can’t imagine the 14.9 shot attempts being there with Artest in the fold. Plus, when Mike Bibby returns in a month, he’ll lose even more playing time.

Garcia has skills too, but the experiment wit him at the point has been a failure. Since moving to PG Francisco has just 3 total assists in the last three games. I expect his playing time and opportunities to plummet even more with the return of Artest and eventually Bibby.

Earl Watson: Earl Watson was a tease for owners in search of assists and steals. Yes, the 7.7 assists were great, but his terrible shooting (33.3% FGs, 68.4% FTs) was hurting your team as much as those assists were helping, so be happy you have an excuse to cut the guy now that Ridnour is back.

Luke Walton: When Lamar Odom returned for the Lakers on Friday, it was Walton who got bumped out of the starting lineup and not Ronny Turiaf. Walton responded by going 1-for-6 from the floor and turning the ball over 6 times with just 4 points. Maybe the move won’t stick, but Walton wasn’t giving you much anyway and it’s time to give up on the promise of the first few months of last season.

Hakim Warrick: Warrick has recorded a couple of DNPs already and he really didn’t do much besides score last season, so feel free to cut him. We still like watching the kid here at ETB and think he’ll be a fine pro, but he doesn’t have the look of a fantasy contributor just yet. He put up less than 1 steal and block combined last season, and with more mouths to feed in Memphis it’s not likely to change this season.

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was a favorite sleeper of fantasy pundits everywhere coming into the season, but Fabio owners have seen little return on that mid-round investment. With Jason Richardson in town Herrmann just isn’t getting enough tick to do anything for your fantasy squad, and you should be looking to dump him now for a high-upside guy on another team. 11:24 minutes a game just won’t cut it, especially if he’s going to shoot 15% FGs.

Ruben Patterson: I loved Patterson coming into the year, figuring he’d get plenty of chances to make up for the loss of Elton Brand as the Clips power forward. That hasn’t been the case, and Ruben is nursing a sore pinky finger that’s affecting his shot as well. With Patterson getting just 17:11 minutes, scoring 5.3 points and grabbing only 2.7 boards, you have better options on the wire right now.

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