Empty The Bench
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Fantasy Football: Week Eleven Stock Report

November 12, 2007

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

There’s only a few weeks left until the fantasy playoffs kick off, in some leagues as little as four. Whether you’re fighting to stay alive or positioning your playoffs-bound team for a high seed, keeping up on which players are seeing an uptick (and downtick) in their performance is crucial. And wouldn’t you know it, Week Ten in the NFL saw some significant developments.

Lucky for you, ETB has emerged from The Local Watering Hole with notes on the latest gridiron heroes and zeroes, and are here to share them with you, no strings attached. Except your first-born child. And a hot plate of au gratin potatoes. It’s not much to ask. Don’t be so cheap.

Big Gainers:

Selvin Young, RB, Denver Broncos: In our infinite wisdom, we’ve been touting the undrafted rookie out of Texas as a Buy Low player, and this became the week where his value has risen to such that he’s now squarely outside of that category. With Travis Henry nursing an ankle injury and anxiously awaiting his hearing for allegedly smoking that schwag from “Dr. Smoke,” Young stepped up against the Chiefs to the tune of 129 combined yards and a visit to the endzone. Henry will meet with NFL Authorities this week to discuss his positive drug test, and if his “I’m innocent, it was second-hand smoke from my friends” excuse doesn’t fly, HC Mike Shanahan has vowed that Henry will not return to the team this season. Apparently he’s passed numerous lie detector and hair-sample tests, so he may yet avoid punishment. Either way, Young proved he’s capable and should be owned in all leagues, even if he doesn’t have great matchups in the immediate future.

Jeremy Shockey, TE, New York Giants: Who is that man with the short, stringy hair, the horrible tattoos, and the 100-yards receiving game, and what have you done with our favorite underachieving tight end with the horrible tattoos and long, stringy hair? “The Shockster,” as some elements of his diehard Hasidic fanbase in our neck of the woods are fond of calling him, was the apple of Eli Manning’s eye against the Cowboys, catching 12 passes for 129 yards and 1 TD, by far his best game of the season. He has fantastic matchups in Weeks 11 and 12 against the Lions and Vikings, respectively, and should keep rolling with Plexiglass Burress more and more limited by his ankle injury.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers: Anytime one breaks the century mark against the Vikings’ beefy rush defense, it should be considered a notable accomplishment. That’s exactly what Grant, an undrafted rookie out of Notre Dame, did on Sunday, cementing his status as the Pack’s featured back and likely setting himself up for 20 carries a week until further notice. Don’t go too overboard in your projections though: his touchdown against Minny was the first of his NFL career, and Green Bay is going to stick to its pass-first offensive gameplan. And as ETB’s astute regular Jon Jon Mackey pointed out in the Hangover, much of his yardage came when the Vikings were heavily scheming towards containing Favre.

Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams: Is Marc Bulger back? Hard to say. He’s certainly worth owning in every league though. It was an impressive performance, but Jason David might have played a part. Still, going 27-of-33 for 302 yards and 2 TDs and 0 INTs (9.2 Y/A, 125 QB Rating) is impressive. If Steven Jackson can continue to finish games, he’ll keep opposing secondaries honest with the running game and S-Jax is one of the best pass-catching backs in football, which gives Bulger another option. Torry Holt, Drew Bennett, Isaac Bruce and Randy McMichael are all healthy as well. Orlando Pace is still out, but this offense put up some big numbers even when Pace was out last year so don’t write them off just yet. In fact, with matchups against San Francisco, Atlanta and Cincinnati on the horizon the St. Louis skill players could provide you with the boost you need to make the playoffs.

Jesse Chatman, RB, Miami Dolphins: Jesse Chatman is a pretty good running back. We’re starting to see why he was neck-and-neck with Ronnie Brown during the preseason. The guy works hard, he runs hard and he does so many things well that the coaching staff has a hard time taking Chatman off the field. And the Dolphins offensive line is proving themselves as one of the best run-blocking units in the league, regardless of who’s taking carries. Chatman now sports an impressive 5.1 YPC on the season after his huge 27-carry, 5-reception, 149-total-yards game on Sunday. He also had a TD run vultured by Cleo Lemon. He should be owned in all leagues, but the matchups are pretty brutal from here on out so temper your expectations.

Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Oh, thanks Mark, way to post a 100-yard game after every single one of your fans and owners had long since given up on you and likely dropped you. Clayton was a favorite sleeper wideout heading into this season and was going as high as the 5th rounds in a number of drafts, but he’s been a bust with poor performances and injuries all season. It’s probably time Clayton was added in leagues again with 16 receptions in the last 3 weeks, but let’s keep in mind that this week’s 8 receptions and 107 yards came against the Bengals.

Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota Vikings: This is why you always handcuff your stud RBs to their backups, especially when their counterparts are capable backs such as Taylor. With Adrian Peterson suffering a torn LCL that will sideline him for around three weeks (there’s no reason to rush this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year back early with the team going nowhere), Taylor will step in and immediately get between 20-25 total touches against the Raiders in Week 11 and Giants in Week 12. Don’t forget that Taylor recorded over 1,500 combined yards and 6 TDs just last season. If for some crazy reason he’s still available, get him now and start him as your flex back against Oakland.

Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas Cowboys: We were hyping Crayton quite a bit heading into this season and in the early weeks, but it took him a minute to get warmed up. Since totaling just 6 receptions for 87 yards through three weeks, Clayton has been on absolute fire. He has 5 TDs and nearly 400 yards in the Cowboys last 6 games. His 5 catches, 66 yards and 1 TD on Sunday were good to see after being shut out a week ago, and at this point we have every reason to believe Crayton keeps the starting job even after/if Ms. Terry Glenn returns.

Big Losers:

Photo Credit: Daniel Mears/The Detroit News

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions: This is not the kind of game that inspires confidence in Kitna’s fantasy prospects at such a crucial time in the season. The four turnovers completely overshadowed his second-straight week of 2 TD passes, and you have to wonder how much longer he can take the kind of poundings he’s exposing himself to in the pocket. The Lions’ offensive line is average and deserves their fair share of blame, but as we’ve been harping on all year, Kitna’s inexplicable penchant for hanging onto the ball 1-2 seconds too long is maddening. He’ll now face a string of opponents that thrive on getting to the quarterback and/or causing turnovers. Kitna can still produce, but is a very risky play.

Steve McNair, QB, Baltimore Ravens: We read at least one fantasy expert recommend plugging in the man once deemed “Air McNair” in what looked like a favorable matchup on paper against the Bungles and their bungling pass defense. Hopefully you didn’t do it. After turning it over three times (two fumbles and a pick) and failing to throw a TD pass for the third week in a row, McNair said that he wouldn’t be surprised if he had permanently lost his starting job to Kyle Boller. Yeah, that’s a safe assumption, and you should know better than to own a QB with 11 turnovers to just 2 TD passes this year. He had some fantastic seasons in Tennessee, but McNair doesn’t have much left in the tank and should think about retiring.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: In the Year of the Fantasy Running Back Bust, ex-workhorse Johnson is a bonafide Salutatorian. Injuries have plagued him all season long, forcing him to miss three games thus far and be extremely limited in a few others. He’s yet to rush the rock into the endzone, has only exceeded 100 yards once, and has generally been uninspiring. You don’t expect him to do much on the road against the Ravens, but 22 carries for 46 yards and a 2.1 YPC? With Kenny Watson running hard and outperforming Rudi in all aspects of the game, there’s no reason to trot this guy out right now.

Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints: As we mentioned in the Hangover, Reggie Bush does a lot of things well, but rushing the football just isn’t one of them. He’s only rushed for 100 yards once in his NFL career and has posted a sub-par 3.7 YPC over his first two seasons. If you’re in a PPR league, you might not have noticed– he’s already got 55 receptions on the year. For the rest of us, 7 carries for 17 yards against one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses is a major cause for concern. Bush has also been subject to speculation that he isn’t big enough to carry the load since before he was drafted, and might be showing some signs of wear. He entered the game this game with a sore knee that could linger and suffered a concussion, but is expected to play in Week 11.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer is still a top-5 QB option most weeks, but he’s not putting up the elite numbers most people expected. The Bengals are moving the ball and racking up yards, but they’re struggling in the red zone and this offense has not been as good as advertised. The offensive line is struggling, and Palmer only has 4 TD passes in the last four weeks. In fact, since that 6 TD outburst in Week 2, he’s only thrown 8 TDs the last seven weeks. Still, we do not recommend selling Palmer now. Have patience. The Bengals fantasy playoffs schedule might be the softest in the NFL with St. Louis, San Francisco and Cleveland on the docket for weeks 14-16.

Minnesota Vikings Quarterbacks: If you thought Kitna or McNair were bad, check out Brooks “Aw, Geez” Bollinger’s box score in the Vikings’ shutout loss to the Packers: 16-26, 176 yards, 1 INT. It doesn’t look that bad, but includes a 50-yard swing pass in garbage time which Chester Taylor did all the work on. Now word out of Minny is that Tarvaris Jackson will reassume the starting job this week when the team returns home to face the Raiders. He’s the team’s leading passer this season with 600 yards and 2 TD passes, though Bollinger actually has a better QB Rating (88.0 to 50.6). Exciting.

Brian Griese, QB, Chicago Bears: Yeah, it was a pretty bad week for quarterbacks. Before leaving the game with a shoulder injury in the thrilling 17-6 Bears win in Oakland, Griese was 10-14 for 97 yards and 0 TDs. He was replaced by old ETB favorite Rex “Mental Midget” Grossman, who promptly connected with Bernard Berrian on a 59-yard TD pass and likely sealed his umpteenth opportunity to win the starting job back. The Bears don’t have many great matchups left on the schedule anyway, and you can probably do better for a fill-in play or backup. Drop him if you haven’t already.

With many leagues’ trade deadline up this week or already passed, we’ll be discontinuing our “Sell High” and “Buy Low” segments of the Stock Report until next year.

More Free Fantasy Advice for Week Eleven:

Week Eleven Matchups

Week Eleven Position Ranks

Week Eleven Cheat Sheet

1 Comment »Posted by Andrew Thell and Brian Spencer on Nov. 12, 2007 at 10:17 pm in NFL Fantasy News

One Response

Hi, guys. It was a pretty good week for me: highest points in my league second week in a row (thank you Westbrook, Roy Williams, DJ Hackett, Favre & the Packer D), I’m back in playoff contention, and I won a $100 bet off a creepy old guy at my favorite Sunday morning bar.

My question: The guy at #1 in my league is Patriot-mad, and he suggested I trade him Maroney after the bye. I’ve got Westbrook, Portis and Norwood, so I certainly won’t miss that non-scoring punk. My WR’s aren’t too consistent (Roy Williams, Cotchery, Patten, Santana Moss, Hackett, Branch, and Andre Johnson), and we play three, for receptions and yards. He won’t give me Randy Moss, but I might be able to get Torry Holt or (more likely) Berrian or Furrey from him.

Our playoffs run weeks 14-16. Should I get rid of Maroney and try to get one of his receivers?

Posted by: Andrea on November 13th, 2007 at 9:13 pm

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